-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Google Search Engine:
"Leading indicators of short squeeze for stock"
Increased buying pressure?
Maybe. Charger deals with Ford, GM and 3rd party charging networks specific to North America. However recent significant increase in TSLA has many believing a pullback is inevitable.
High short interest?
Yes,
Days to cover above 10?
No.
Not even close. May 31, 2023 shows 1 day to cover, unlikely changed from that.
RSI below 30?
No.
Not even close.
So based on a quick Google search it appears TSLA is not in a short squeeze. I believe average analysts, fund managers and retail investors are simply recognizing Tesla as a value proposition, and it took the recent endorsement of Ford and GM to show everyone that Tesla has the by far the best EV charging network. Perhaps they are now thinking that Tesla also has the best EVs.
"Leading indicators of short squeeze for stock"
Increased buying pressure?
Maybe. Charger deals with Ford, GM and 3rd party charging networks specific to North America. However recent significant increase in TSLA has many believing a pullback is inevitable.
High short interest?
Yes,
Days to cover above 10?
No.
Not even close. May 31, 2023 shows 1 day to cover, unlikely changed from that.
RSI below 30?
No.
Not even close.
So based on a quick Google search it appears TSLA is not in a short squeeze. I believe average analysts, fund managers and retail investors are simply recognizing Tesla as a value proposition, and it took the recent endorsement of Ford and GM to show everyone that Tesla has the by far the best EV charging network. Perhaps they are now thinking that Tesla also has the best EVs.
David Ryan on IBD has noted in the past an “ANTS Indicator “ being an indication of institutional buying
1 20/ 25 % increase in price over 15 days
2 12 out of 15 days up in that time period
3 The daily volume in those up days being above average
Then the stock often build a base and then continues much higher . Noted on IBD live today that he thought Tesla currently had reached all three indicators and that he considered it possible that institutional buying might continue over a number of months
Past discussions on “ANTS indicators “ can be found on YouTube
1 20/ 25 % increase in price over 15 days
2 12 out of 15 days up in that time period
3 The daily volume in those up days being above average
Then the stock often build a base and then continues much higher . Noted on IBD live today that he thought Tesla currently had reached all three indicators and that he considered it possible that institutional buying might continue over a number of months
Past discussions on “ANTS indicators “ can be found on YouTube
First time i've heard of "ANTS indicators" and this is probably the first time i have taking a liking to ANTS
Tesla
There is no evidence the semi is in continuous production. They did a batch for Pepsi and now they are done. They may do another batch later in the year. And frankly no one has ever shown anything that remotely resembles a “prototype” production line.
Important to make sure it fits in an In-N-Out drive through. Bullish.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Toyota's press release had a lot more info than just renewed claims of solid state battery commercialization and a 1000-km range. It's amazing what I can find by actually reading the primary source instead of making jokes based on headlines and journalist publications.
So here’s what Toyota is claiming:
• Again saying solid state batteries are approaching practical application in production BEVs thanks to a “technological breakthrough” solving the durability issue. Aiming for 2027-2028 commercialization in BEVs. We'll see.
• Using a “bipolar” cell design in the future. This is an interesting concept I’ve never seen before. Basically they’re breaking away from the normal method by instead applying anode and cathode materials on opposite sides of common metal foil layers (see figure below). One obvious advantage depicted in the diagram is a reduction in cell casing material, but I don’t know enough about the tech to consider other pros and cons. Toyota touts the potential to substantially improve range, charging speed, energy density and cost for both the high-nickel and iron-phosphate chemistries. Normally, Li-ion batteries use copper foil for the anode and aluminum foil for the cathode, because each is more suitable for the particular chemical and electrical conditions of the anode and cathodes respectively. Toyota did not disclose the current collector material selection, so this remains a mystery for now, but presumably they have come up with some solution because Toyota says the Aqua (also known as Prius c) and Crown hybrid models have already been using this tech. Also, I suspect it will be more challenging to control the internal temperature of this type of cell than conventional cells because the steel containers provide the opportunity to run cooling ribbons along their walls.
I hope we’ll get analysis from The Limiting Factor with some of the battery experts like Dr. Dahn or Dr. Mung opining.
• Aerodynamic efficiency will be improved with some kind of unspecified hypersonic rocket technology for boundary layer control, developed as a spinoff application from Mitsubishi’s space systems division. Supposedly this can reduce drag coefficient majorly, with “Cd0.1 level in view”. That’s not a typo; they actually said a drag coefficient (Cd) of 0.1 might be feasible and, for context, the best on the market today are the Lucid Air and Model S at 0.21. This means Toyota is claiming they might achieve literally double the aerodynamic efficiency of the industry state of the art, and this would translate to almost double the highway cruising range (holding battery size, vehicle weight, and cross-sectional area constant for the comparison). Furthermore, Toyota says this improvement is largely independent of the shape of the vehicle, which would be crazy considering that shape is normally the main factor determining Cd and usually it matters more than everything else combined.
It is not at all clear to me how aerospace technology intended for hypersonic flow is applicable to consumer automotive vehicles experiencing incompressible subsonic flow. Hypersonic flow generally has very different physical properties than subsonic flow, especially at the speeds cars move on public highways, which is at most Mach 0.1. However, I’m not an aerodynamics expert and Toyota kept all the details secret. If Toyota and Mitsubishi engineers actually have accomplished this feat and also somehow made it manufacturable and affordable then this will be one of the greatest achievements of all time in the history of automotive technology. On the other hand, this is such an extraordinary boast without any evidence to back it up that I'm very skeptical.
• Gigacastings in the structure. The castings shown in the demo image appear quite primitive compared to Tesla’s castings.
• Plants will no longer use conveyors and instead use techniques like a “self-propelling assembly line”. Toyota intends to have the cars drive themselves with their own powertrains to move through the production system. "Sensors and control systems on the factory side communicate with wireless terminals mounted on the mass-produced vehicles to control them from the outside. We will aim to integrate the car and the production plant." An advantage will be increasing plant layout flexibility due to not having expensive equipment fixed in place. However, I don't see how this is much of an improvement over Tesla's approach with automated ground vehicles moving around the work-in-progress. One thing to note is that for this to have any meaningful impact, it will require the body-in-white to be mated with the skateboard very early in the build sequence. Toyota calls this "simplified assembly from bottom to top".
• Digital electronics will be drastically increased in their utilization in the next-gen factory. No specifics provided on what they have in mind, other than vague mentions of having more automated inspection technology.
• Through vertical integration of powertrain components in partnership with suppliers, they have shrunk the size of their "eAxle" powertrain system, which has secondary benefits of enabling increased cabin room and improved aero.
• Switching the inverters to SiC (silicon carbide). If I remember correctly, Tesla had been the only ones in the industry using SiC, but on Investor Day they said Gen 3 will be moving on to cheaper materials to save cost--I think it was just silicon. Toyota claim they and some Tier 1 suppliers have developed some improvements on SiC tech (see report for details). I'm not sure how this stacks up against Tesla's choice.
Overall, Toyota is making some big and (eventually) falsifiable claims, but I think we don't have enough information to properly evaluate their decisions and technology path yet. My first impression is that this is probably a lot of empty hype and lofty promises with overly optimistic commercialization timelines, but with some interesting novel ideas, especially the bipolar battery concept. This will be interesting to watch and I would like to know what you all think.
Last edited:
It’s getting juicy!
What tradition is he referring to? Maybe one of the more senior members around here remembers a release candidate going to the drive thru at in-n-out.
If so, shorts gonna get so burny
What tradition is he referring to? Maybe one of the more senior members around here remembers a release candidate going to the drive thru at in-n-out.
If so, shorts gonna get so burny
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Lots more discussion on market corruption today. I always try to remember that these games only work in the short term. In the long run, cash is king. If Tesla continues to generate more and more cash flow, then they’ll either have a huge cash balance or start sending the money back to us via buybacks or dividends. In the final analysis, it’s really all about the dividends. Even cash balance has value ultimately because it can be distributed via dividends or reinvested in the business in the hopes of…increasing future dividends. Likewise, buybacks are valuable because they reduce the share count and that means the remaining shares will get a bigger portion of all future dividends. I never have understood why so many sophisticated investors seem to ignore or forget this basic concept. If you simply hold onto your shares and you have accurately forecasted future cash flows, then the long term outcome is basically guaranteed, though the current stock price at any moment will always be noisy.
Last edited:
I think Toyota is an expert at reducing drag while it blows smoke out of its own ass.
From Wikipedia: Short Squeeze
In the stock market, a short squeeze is a rapid increase in the price of a stock owing primarily to an excess of short selling of a stock rather than underlying fundamentals. A short squeeze occurs when there is a lack of supply and an excess of demand for the stock due to short sellers having to buy stocks to cover their short positions.
Me: If short sellers are buying Tesla stock to cover their short positions because the sp is rising quickly, shorts are being sqeezed. Whether retail or institutional shorts are being sqeezed can be debated but you can be sure that some shorts are being sqeezed.
Yes, sort of like the sleep trains in Europe, but individualized.
Marc_K_inNJ
Member
After the successful daring design of the Cybertruck every option is on the table for Toyota.
Toyota's next car will look like .... a golf ball !
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
The first rule of this is post is "DO NOT REPLY TO THIS MESSAGE"
The second rule of this is post is "DO NOT REPLY TO THIS MESSAGE"
This has value here but there is no need to get me or you banned.
The second rule of this is post is "DO NOT REPLY TO THIS MESSAGE"
This has value here but there is no need to get me or you banned.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Only way to do it is make the car smaller/lower with a smaller cross-sectional area at the front. a.k.a "pointy"After the successful daring design of the Cybertruck every option is on the table for Toyota.
Toyota's next car will look like .... a golf ball !
MartinAustin
Active Member
TSLA is at highest point since September 30th (after which it dropped quite a bit... I wonder if Q3 numbers were exploited)
Next stop is $315, which would be the highest since May 4th last year
Next stop is $315, which would be the highest since May 4th last year
Would a cybertruck actually be a useful vehicle in a warzone? Logistics for the required re-charging infrastructure seem far harder to manage than that needed for Diesel based military vehicles. Would be interested to hear the case for how an EV armored vehicle would be a feasible option on the battlefield.
I wonder if their definition of "Cd 0.1 level" really just means anything in the 0.1-0.199 range...which would be a bit less shocking.
On a possibly related note, I was tangentially connected to some research work many years ago that involved using thin electrodes and generating plasma to delay boundary layer separation, keeping air flow more connected on the downstream side of bodies with a spherical or rod shape. This effectively reduced the wake behind the objects, reducing drag.
I don't recall the details from that work, but doing some quick googling, I did find this article:
A quick skim says 6-9% drag reduction when applying electrodes to the top surface of a scaled model of a semi truck trailer.
I could imagine more drag reduction if electrodes were placed on the sides of the trailer as well...perhaps 20-30% total reduction.
I'm not sure if the drag savings would be bigger or smaller on a more aerodynamic shaped car...I can make hand-waving arguments either way.
Power usage seemed to be about 100 watts per meter of electrodes...not sure if that would have to scale up to reduce drag on a full size vehicle instead of a model. But, *IF* that figure holds, and you could surround the back end of a square-ish SUV with 4 meters of electrodes, and activate at highway speeds, the power consumption might be 400 watts...so the consumption would only be 400 watt hours during a 1-hour drive for a "cost" of about one mile of range per hour. But if the drag savings were 10-20%, you might "save" 5, 10, 15 or more miles of range during that hour at highway speeds, so you could come out ahead.
This doesn't break any laws of conservation of energy...you're just effectively using electronics to alter the apparent shape of the vehicle in a way. Like adding those flaps they put on the back of some big rig trailers to reduce drag...those use zero power but save energy for the truck.
This is all somewhat-informed speculation and estimation on my part...I'm an engineer, but this isn't my field. Just interesting to think about.
That almost looks like a museum display...wish I could read what look like little signs above each object. But, I think the left is a "standard" multi-part stamped underbody, and the right is the casting. Still looks a few steps behind Tesla's, though, as you mentioned.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
