Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I've actually been wondering if the robots can gain weight if we feed them too much electrons

Which weighs more? A pound of feathers, or a pound of hot feathers? (hint: closed loop)

 

[AndrewZ]

Context may help here: you both live in different countries, so labor / labour developments, as well as CPI and interest rates, may vary to a significant degree. No need to get into an argument

Yes Canada largely follows its 10-times bigger US neighbour economically, but this is a comparison between oranges and tangerines.

Canada is paving the way in some respects and Powell has kinda mentioned as much in referencing what our central bank has done, the BoC paused rate hikes way back in January and just restarted them again this month. The US Fed paused this month and more is likely coming, then the question becomes how long rates stay high (assuming they don't need to go much higher).

Doesn't need to be an argument though, just sharing different perspectives and opinions. Some want to posit that inflation is already conquered, some want to suggest the opposite. Elon has been calling for a recession for dang near two years now and in November was saying that rates needed to be cut immediately -- everyone has their own incentives for pushing certain angles.

Trying to silence opposing opinions is what I think is dangerous

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Perhaps Optimus could be charging itself wirelessly while working.

Charging while it works, if staying in one place : inductive floor pad, with corresponding power receivers in the feet? Surely less than even 6kW with that size, would be a "trickle charge", but might be enough to extend battery life if you can manage to get a few hundred watts through. But if it weighs to much vs the possible charging speed, it might not be worth while, as the added mass might cost more power than you gained trickle charging, when not standing in one place. Actually, might be interesting if Tesla offered a para-bot that bolted to the floor and had an AC power input without batteries, for those tasks where you need the human dexterity but not mobility. Such arm-bots exist of course, but without the Tesla AI magic.

Charging while not in use : Just put the relevant sized inductive receiver on the back, and step back into a charging / storage receptacle like depicted in so much science fiction. The actual components are probably more expensive than plugging into a physical socket, but with the reduced wear for something that might be cycled daily, probably worth the price for customers.

 

[jerry33]

Charging while it works, if staying in one place : inductive floor pad, with corresponding power receivers in the feet? Surely less than even 6kW with that size, would be a "trickle charge", but might be enough to extend battery life if you can manage to get a few hundred watts through. But if it weighs to much vs the possible charging speed, it might not be worth while, as the added mass might cost more power than you gained trickle charging, when not standing in one place. Actually, might be interesting if Tesla offered a para-bot that bolted to the floor and had an AC power input without batteries, for those tasks where you need the human dexterity but not mobility. Such arm-bots exist of course, but without the Tesla AI magic.

Charging while not in use : Just put the relevant sized inductive receiver on the back, and step back into a charging / storage receptacle like depicted in so much science fiction. The actual components are probably more expensive than plugging into a physical socket, but with the reduced wear for something that might be cycled daily, probably worth the price for customers.

I can just hear the questions now. I'm going on an overseas trip, do I have to park the car away from the inductive charger?

 

[Singuy]

Dojo production starts in July:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1671589874686730270

Tesla practically redid everything from first principle up. The interconnects, cooling, and power are all new. Most chip manufactures doesn't have to worry much about data interconnect between cabinets as that's taken care of by 3rd party switches. Tesla looked at the available hardware and thought "we need to 10 or 100x this". So it's not surprising it took this long to get to production ready.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Canada is paving the way in some respects and Powell has kinda mentioned as much in referencing what our central bank has done, the BoC paused rate hikes way back in January and just restarted them again this month. The US Fed paused this month and more is likely coming, then the question becomes how long rates stay high (assuming they don't need to go much higher).

Doesn't need to be an argument though, just sharing different perspectives and opinions. Some want to posit that inflation is already conquered, some want to suggest the opposite. Elon has been calling for a recession for dang near two years now and in November was saying that rates needed to be cut immediately -- everyone has their own incentives for pushing certain angles.

Trying to silence opposing opinions is what I think is dangerous

Just to provide some context and clarification....I do not think the Fed's should rush to drop rates drastically.

Powell and Co. have the chance to actually get this right IF they just simply put their hands under their butts and do not do anything for the next 1-2 quarters and then slowly lower rates back into the 3-4% range at the end of this year going into next year.

Just look at how this would correct the housing situation in the US. There are tons of people that bought homes starting in 2020 that were buying 2, 3, or 5 year ARMS. You have lots of landlords that also used ARMS to buy their investment property. The liquidity of homes in the US, especially in some markets is incredibly tight.

Anyone on ARM loans will have refinance as soon as now and a lot more come 2024 and 2025. These people are all praying that the Fed lowers rates back down to something like 1-2 to lock in a low rate. But in reality, have the Fed Fund rate at 0 or 1 or 2% wasn't healthy. These people will be forced to sell their home or investment property, putting more liquidity back into the market which will actually put pressure of home prices and bring the housing prices down. The reason this won't be a repeat of 2008-2009 though is that homeowners are sitting on such big gains over the past 3 years that home prices correcting down 20% or so won't put them underwater.

People facing the prospects of mortgage rates returning to a normal of say 3-4% combined with student loan payments restarting come Oct will do all the work in terms of removing excess liquidity in the economy. The Fed just needs to sit put for a while and do nothing.

 

[AudubonB]

My mother-in-law may be one of the few who do think I'm real. She still remembers that I stole her daughter for a genteel life in Rio to go with me to Yemen. She was not in Iran with me, that was a few years earlier. If you really want to know I'll send you my 'nephew certified' list of my countries of residence, extracted from the residence visas that were once ubiquitous.

No list of occupations is currently extant. Needless to say, I was no better at staying in an occupation that I was at staying in a country. However, I have lived in my current house and current residence for 19 years. The longest one before that was closer to 19 months.

Addendum: Perhaps my spouse thinks I'm real too, at least when she's feeling generous.

The well-read among us need not be reminded that Corporal Nobby Nobs possessed a certificate verifying that he was human, although many suspected it was a forgery.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Because the most likely outcome that is on the table is what happened late 80's that led to the period we're about to replicate, the 90's, and the market is correctly pricing in that ultra low interest rates are a thing of the past. There isn't going to be a 2008-2009 Financial crisis or Dot.com bubble (that happened already in 2021) that forced the Fed to lower rates to 0.

It's increasingly looking like we're following the late 80's inflation cycle that ended in 89, the US economy went into a brief minor recession from 90-91. From March 89 to March 92, the Fed fund rate went from 9.9% to 3.5%. However, the Fed fund rate only got as low as 3% and jumped back up to average 4-5% for the rest of the 90's.

All during the time, inflation was lower than the Fed Fund rate and US treasury yields.

Inflation for the 90's by year

90 - 5.4
91 - 4.2
92 - 3.0
93 - 3.0
94 - 2.6
95 - 2.8
96 - 3.0
97 - 2.3
98 - 1.6
99 - 2.2

So ALL throughout the 90's, the Fed Fund rate and US treasury rates were above the inflation rates and yet....the US economy did just fine. Wall St did just fine. In some of these years, the Fed Fund rate and US treasuries were DOUBLE that of inflation rates. There was a brief and minor recession that lasted only 8 months and GDP went down a total of 1.4% at the beginning of the 90's as the Fed's started lowering rates.

So the notion that US treasuries accurately predict or correlate to inflation is dubious at best.

Thanks.

Sorry as I wasn't clear. This isn't about inflation, but about what the resultant Fed Funds rate will likely be 2nd half of this year and next year. "Higher" interest rates being sustainable is fine and probably healthy overall, but not a good thing for car companies whose profitability is heavily dependent on auto loan rates.

Higher for longer means less profit for Tesla.

 

[lafrisbee]

TSLA $301 here we come! (301 easier to rhyme than 300!)

so...rhyme it?

 

[unk45]

The well-read among us need not be reminded that Corporal Nobby Nobs possessed a certificate verifying that he was human, although many suspected it was a forgery.

As one here claims to be Lord Vetenari, the patrician himself, said person only declares the Good Corporal to be almost human. You, my Lord, might well, based on the preponderance of evidence and your visual, auditory and written verbal exchanges declare me to be 100% verifiably human.

That would be of inestimable value in diminishing the doubts of some valued correspondents.
Although you, my Lord, have not reached the official Elder status as have I, though with time your Patrician self might achieve that.

Please, if you are so inclined indicate that my peripatetic mannerisms, habits and speech are not evidence of my lack of being "real" whether or not they provide evidence of my 'humanity'. Anyway I'm much taller than the corporal seems to be.

 

[lafrisbee]

Mods, I can still post non-investment schtuff in the investment thread cuz I still got 35 chairs.
Now...
The induction gap issue. It'd be much easier(cheaper) for the pad to move than the vehicle to move.
Second, Fartley talk of how the cyber(nota)truck is really not a work truck. And I do not know. As long as it is a fun (nota)truck that can sometimes do some work stuff I am happy. As I saw it four years ago. Elon recognised that "trucks" sell more because of the funness of a truck than the workness of a truck. So he made a big fun (nota)truck. Which is the real reason there is such a strong "truck" market.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Hey, we're up a few from yesterday's Open.

There's always that one guy/gal

 

[Cosmacelf]

Here ya go, for all those wondering about different levels of FSD hardware. Yes, there will be continuous HW improvements over time. Shocking, I know.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1671648181392637952

 

[Cosmacelf]

Here ya go, for all those wondering about different levels of FSD hardware. Yes, there will be continuous HW improvements over time. Shocking, I know.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1671648181392637952

I never used to be the kind of person who upgraded their car every two years - they all worked just fine. But I've been upgrading my Teslas much more often...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Thanks.

Sorry as I wasn't clear. This isn't about inflation, but about what the resultant Fed Funds rate will likely be 2nd half of this year and next year. "Higher" interest rates being sustainable is fine and probably healthy overall, but not a good thing for car companies whose profitability is heavily dependent on auto loan rates.

Higher for longer means less profit for Tesla.

You mean less profit for legacy car companies who have the inability to materially change their cost structure in the short term. Short term being 3-5 years minimum.

Not sure why Tesla's proven history of reducing COGS while lowering ASP is just ignored. They did this multiple times, for long stretches. It's simply not visible right now because the dynamics factors around their business structure are moving rapidly such as currencies, commodities (and when the changes in those commodities actually get realized in their earnings), etc... Just last quarter Tesla showed how they started to reduce the manpower needed to produce the same amount, if not more, cars. Yet this realization of operating efficiency was wiped out by currency headwinds.

Also you can count me in the camp that believes Tesla's awareness, not their pricing is the issue. I think a lot of people know what a Tesla is. I do not think a lot of people know that a 3 or Y out the door is a cheaper option for them. Once Tesla figures this out, I think demand will rebound in a strong way, even with rates being what they are today.

Also starting on Jan 1st, the EV credit changes to point of sale credit. Will make a big difference in affordability.

 

[GhostSkater]

"When all jobs are high priority, none is"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1671661718794309632

 

[MountainRatMat]

Just to provide some context and clarification....I do not think the Fed's should rush to drop rates drastically.

Powell and Co. have the chance to actually get this right IF they just simply put their hands under their butts and do not do anything for the next 1-2 quarters and then slowly lower rates back into the 3-4% range at the end of this year going into next year.

Just look at how this would correct the housing situation in the US. There are tons of people that bought homes starting in 2020 that were buying 2, 3, or 5 year ARMS. You have lots of landlords that also used ARMS to buy their investment property. The liquidity of homes in the US, especially in some markets is incredibly tight.

Anyone on ARM loans will have refinance as soon as now and a lot more come 2024 and 2025. These people are all praying that the Fed lowers rates back down to something like 1-2 to lock in a low rate. But in reality, have the Fed Fund rate at 0 or 1 or 2% wasn't healthy. These people will be forced to sell their home or investment property, putting more liquidity back into the market which will actually put pressure of home prices and bring the housing prices down. The reason this won't be a repeat of 2008-2009 though is that homeowners are sitting on such big gains over the past 3 years that home prices correcting down 20% or so won't put them underwater.

People facing the prospects of mortgage rates returning to a normal of say 3-4% combined with student loan payments restarting come Oct will do all the work in terms of removing excess liquidity in the economy. The Fed just needs to sit put for a while and do nothing.

Why would would anyone get an ARM when fed rates are basically 0% and mortgage rates are 2%?

Do you have any data to support that "tons of people" have ARM's starting in 2020?

I have zero data to back this up, just common sense, but I would think there would be less ARM's starting in 2020.

 

[heltok]

Charging while it works, if staying in one place : inductive floor pad, with corresponding power receivers in the feet? Surely less than even 6kW with that size, would be a "trickle charge", but might be enough to extend battery life if you can manage to get a few hundred watts through. But if it weighs to much vs the possible charging speed, it might not be worth while, as the added mass might cost more power than you gained trickle charging, when not standing in one place. Actually, might be interesting if Tesla offered a para-bot that bolted to the floor and had an AC power input without batteries, for those tasks where you need the human dexterity but not mobility. Such arm-bots exist of course, but without the Tesla AI magic.

Charging while not in use : Just put the relevant sized inductive receiver on the back, and step back into a charging / storage receptacle like depicted in so much science fiction. The actual components are probably more expensive than plugging into a physical socket, but with the reduced wear for something that might be cycled daily, probably worth the price for customers.

That's my take also. They say it's for robots, technically the car is a robot, but I think they are referring to robots like these:

These will frequently pause in specific places while they wait for humans/robots to do something with the thing they are moving around. That would be a good place to add some charging to extend battery life before they have to return home and charge.

When you have optimus doing a task in one area it can place its feet on the charger and as its energy consumption is rather low when it's only moving its smaller motors not a lot of power is needed:

I think Tesla are thinking long term. Humanoid form factor is useful for many reasons, but long term specialized form factors such as quadcopter, wheeled, quadrupedal, hexapod etc will be added to their lineup. And Elon probably though that long term wireless charging will be useful for many applications so they decided to add it to their competency.

Think of your own use of QI-chargers for your iPhone. It's flimsy, slow and not super practical. But robots can solve the flimsiness problem themselves and this company is doing 6kW which is plenty for many applications.

 

[WattsHappening]

I never used to be the kind of person who upgraded their car every two years - they all worked just fine. But I've been upgrading my Teslas much more often...

This is really interesting. We've always bought new cars and kept them for 8+ years before upgrading.

One question I've wondered is whether the purchase cycle of new vehicles might be extended due to EVs lasting much longer than ICE vehicles, and in particular with Teslas, since OTA upgrades keep our old cars fresh.

We did replace our first Model 3 with a Model Y in about 3.5 years. Our second Model 3 still looks and feels brand new, almost 5 years in service. But we have an order in for a CT. Our plan is to keep the M3 and give it to our daughter when she gets her driver's license.

So our (both yours and ours) anecdotal evidence indicates the purchase cycle will be shorter, not longer. As long as they continue to introduce and/or refresh with new models, tech, performance, value, etc., 'Tesla, just take our damn money!'

 

[Curt Renz]

I see the Fed chairman's comments to Congress today as jawboning (moral suasion) designed to inhibit companies from raising prices and to quiet wage demands from workers.