As in you think core inflation will surprise to the downside?
I definitely do not share that opinion, I think there is still far too much money floating around and rates will be higher for a long time
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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I definitely do not share that opinion, I think there is still far too much money floating around and rates will be higher for a long time
Talk about biting the hand that feeds you...oh well...MSM needs some controversies to publish anyways for clicks.All that vanity truck talk
Olle
Active Member
I agree with both of you, it’s not impossible. Wireless charging just seem like a loss for cars though, with not much gain. Cars need ground clearance. If you have a moving plate to close the gap you lost the solid state advantage. might for same complexity and less cost get an inverted catenary or plug. Which Tesla patented for that purpose.
The next 2-3 cpi prints have extremely favorable comps and we’ve seen a ton of anecdotal data/evidence that points to a rapidly changing situation on the MoM inflation data. The PPI is already foretelling what’s coming. The real time inflation data tracker is actively in the 2% range. Housing and rent data are not just showing slight drops but actually trending to bigger drops. The YoY number that the media loves to quote, even though MoM is far more important, will show big drops which further weakens the Fed’s words and integrity. We also have student loan payments restarting after 3 years of no one having to make a payment. We’re staring down deflation in the 2nd half of this year, not sticky inflation. All the data points to that. Not sure what data you’re looking at
As for liquidity, not sure how you’re coming to that conclusion. The VC and private market is bone dry still since Nov 2021 with AI just starting to get private money flowing in.
Core CPI/PCE haven't moderated in some time and are now significantly above headline CPI.
Anecdotally I can talk about massive labour unions that have recently finalized or are now finalizing new contracts for the following 3-8 years with big wage increases, current company I'm consulting with utilizes a union that locked in almost 16% of just base wage increases over the next five years -- we're still working to get that change order approved by our Client, but the guys are already being paid like 5% more than they were two months ago. Wage increases in response to inflation are what will feed into core inflation and make it even stickier, hopefully not resulting in a wage-price spiral though.
I'm expecting real estate to head significantly upwards in my area as these wage increases come through and increase people's borrowing power (+ rent capacity) despite the higher interest rates.
Had an F350 diesel for construction (1999, so....looong ago), and used a trailer for tools.
Never, like ever, loaded/unloaded from the side (sans tossing a bag of trash).
Today, I'd have a van and no trailer, 1000% of the time - but these were few and far between back in the day.
For the folks that need a Reading service body, let the old school manufacturers have that tiny market.
For the RV or other heavy haulers using an F250+ ... let old school manufacturers have that market as well.
Once the Cybertruck looks become common - it'll take over the 'truck' market for the other 90% of 'truck' buyers (opinion - don't like the looks, still buying one).
Then prices rise for the "Heavy Duty" trucks (low volume) and electrification will dominate all forms of transport.
The sooner the better.
Never, like ever, loaded/unloaded from the side (sans tossing a bag of trash).
Today, I'd have a van and no trailer, 1000% of the time - but these were few and far between back in the day.
For the folks that need a Reading service body, let the old school manufacturers have that tiny market.
For the RV or other heavy haulers using an F250+ ... let old school manufacturers have that market as well.
Once the Cybertruck looks become common - it'll take over the 'truck' market for the other 90% of 'truck' buyers (opinion - don't like the looks, still buying one).
Then prices rise for the "Heavy Duty" trucks (low volume) and electrification will dominate all forms of transport.
The sooner the better.
Yeah I'm just going to say I just completely disagree with everything you just wrote and leave it at that as to not sidetrack the thread, especially your thoughts on housing.
I would hope the CEO of a competitor would talk trash, its his job. Despite all the lovey dovey talk of sharing a power connector, these are still competitors.All that vanity truck talk
Housing movements can be very localized, but my area has been relatively flat for a long time and is just now starting to pick up.
Not sure what to tell you about the other items, I'm surely not the only one here who is aware of big labour agreements coming through that will be jacking up people's wages for years to come.
Wages are what actually feed into the core inflation metrics, housing, services, etc. The decline in headline inflation to date is all about energy, core inflation excluding food and energy has barely budged and are what some would argue will only be driven down by higher unemployment and moderating wage growth.
We're still in the early innings of this IMO
There is no such thing as "the EV market". This is classic begging the question.Joke of the day:
View attachment 949495
Tesla's U.S. electric vehicle market share will drop to 18% by 2026, BofA estimates
BofA expects the market to shift significantly from new entrants, such as Tesla, to incumbent automakers.www.cnbc.com
View attachment 949496
What did they expect Tesla to respond with? Ummm...no, that's not gonna happen?
Potentially interesting thought: S, X, and Cybertruck are all standard with air suspension. If the 3 Highland and a future version fo the Model Y get an air suspension added, that's a built-in height adjustment on all the cars, and perhaps a hint of inductive charging intentions.
From what others have posted, it sounds like an inductive charging system can be optimized to work across an air gap of at least 8 inches, which I think would cover the Cybertruck at its lowest setting (from the reveal, air suspension was at 12" ground clearance, and could move 4" up or down). All the other Tesla cars are already closer than that.
I still feel like there's limited advantages for wireless charging for typical car uses...but if it was fully automated (car parks itself in just the right spot, and lowers/raises as needed), it would cut out that 10 seconds it takes to plug in the car at home, and eliminates the need for human interaction in a robotaxi scenario.
*Edited for clarity.
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MountainRatMat
Member
We'll know the Cybertruck will take over the world when we see the first competitor make something similar. My plan (but not advice so I don't get in trouble) is to buy as much $TSLA as I possibly can the first day we see a competitor adopt the funky design. Look at what happened to the stock price when the competitors adopted NACS.
Also, side note, that was brilliant of Tesla calling it NACS instead of the Tesla connector. Great marketing move. As far as I can tell it isn't a standard today but will be in the future and it allowed other manufacturers to use it without have to actually say they have a Tesla connector.
Will be very useful for Robotaxis. Also, even if the losses are 5%, that's still within spitting distance of the 2.5% that gets paid to the credit card company. Add in far less maintenance costs and vandalism costs and it could easily break even or do better if you can get losses down lower.
Optimus doesn't actually need it as it can plug itself in. And presumably Optimus would charge via DC-DC charging to negate the weight of an on-board AC-DC charger.
MountainRatMat
Member
Tesla should adopt the Twitter response with aJoke of the day:
View attachment 949495
Tesla's U.S. electric vehicle market share will drop to 18% by 2026, BofA estimates
BofA expects the market to shift significantly from new entrants, such as Tesla, to incumbent automakers.
View attachment 949496
What did they expect Tesla to respond with? Ummm...no, that's not gonna happen?
, it makes for some great articles when they say "We reached out to Twitter and they responded with "
A little-known fact
-NACS stands for Not Asinine Charging Standard. “North American” is just so provincial.
Just two clarify, all OEM's in India must use local suppliers to remain eligible for the benefits. Several, most famously Suzuki, operate with Indian manufacturers, in their case Maruti. That is quite analogous to companies like SAIC in China.
In short, they are NOT kit cars. Foreign OEM's generally have CKD-like operations for lower volume models, but still do a good deal of India sourcing. From ChevIran in the 1970's, Ford and GM around the world, CKD almost always had large local suppliers. FWIW, aerospace has done that for many years, as have many other industries.
IME, helping with those arrangements in more than a dozen countries, the negotiations regarding local content and local supply are arduous in every case. My first one was ChevIran, which was a locally built Opel Commodore, and had gradually increasing local content. Of course that ended abruptly in 1979.
Many such arrangements become both durable and profitable, with SAIC/GM as one stellar example and CAOA with Hyundai and Chery being another.
We'll soon have clues about Tesla, I predict it will resemble that formerly unique deals with China that have been so successful for everyone concerned. The Modi/Musk harmony is an indication that Mr. Musk learns from his own backdrop and always has very senior executives from the specific country as the heads. Luckily there are quite a few stellar choices for India.
I have thought India was improbable. Obviously I underestimated what we all knew about Chinese operations.
Next: Korea, building on Hyundai/Kia need for dependable high speed charging in their own country.
South Korea has had a long and moderately successful experience with GM (Daewoo) and Nissan (Samsung). Since Samsung cars were badge engineered Nissan anyway, perhaps it will be easier to cope with the issues with Tesla.
Kit Cars, no way! The reality is much more complex than that. I cannot wait!
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Wow they are moving that big of a tree? I would love to see a time lapse video of that.System’s breaking down?
Well in Giga Texas’ case, it’s the South wall finally
On to bigger and better things.
P.S. buy the dip.
How far are they moving it to?
A) Housing affordability is at an all time low in the US. Not trying to point this out to be rude but you live in Canada, which has major differences in it's housing dynamics. Housing in the US in on the brink of a bubble bursting...not a new rally of home prices. Though it won't be nearly what 2008-2009 was since lending standards are much stricture. US commercial real estate though has in fact had it's bubble bust and there's still no sign of how much lower it's going to go. Commercial real estate in major cities is being sold off for 60 cents on the dollar.
B) Labor union makes up only 10% in the US. Given that employers that use labor unions have been offering buyouts before new labor agreements, odds are % of the US labor force in unions is likely below 10%. And even in that context, my spouse is part of a union for nursing, a big union in the US, they are actively doing their negotiations for the next 2 year timeframe....they are not getting big raises at all.
C) The % of the US labor force in the tech industry is 8%. The tech field has in fact been going through a material downturn/recession. Major, spread out layoffs throughout the spring that are continuing today. Many tech companies are continuing to do stealth layoffs (500-1000 at a time to avoid attention) even now. I work in the field, This is continually going on at Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta. Even Apple is using it's performance reviews to trim staff. Most, if not all, of the companies I just listed have openly said they are implementing pay freezes. Not even doing cost of living yearly increases. Tech pay will likely be flat for the next 2 years, maybe even 3.
D) Core is mostly housing/rent. Wages are included but don't make that much of an impact. Might want to check on just how the Fed gets their data for housing/rent. Not only is the housing data outdated by about 2-3 months but their process for rent is simply asking landlords what they EXPECT to get. If you track actual real time rent, it paints a different story. And the gap between what landlords are expecting to get verses the reality of what someone will actually pay them is getting bigger.
Anyways, I've sided tracked the thread enough. I'm sure you disagree so we'll just have to see where everything is at in 6 months.
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