Yeah I mostly gave advice back, 2016-2021 when I last talked to them. I bet by now they get the message.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Yeah some of those PEs were misleading. NVDA's current guide is a step change for their forward earnings potential. AMD's PE of over 600 is pulled from GAAP, however analysts use non-GAAP to judge AMD due to their current amortization accounting for Xilinx acquisition which means GAAP net income would be pretty much near zero for 2-3 more years.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
TrendTrader007
Active Member
i could not resist buying all day today.
bought TSLA then sold $300 tomorrow calls and repeat several times
Finally done with all my buying
i don't have as much TSLA as Ross Gerber or Cathie Wood but those guys are managing OPM
i am not
therefore, i am very happy with a job well done
bought TSLA then sold $300 tomorrow calls and repeat several times
Finally done with all my buying
i don't have as much TSLA as Ross Gerber or Cathie Wood but those guys are managing OPM
i am not
therefore, i am very happy with a job well done
Eh I don't think TSLA is having its Nvidia moment at all.
This is just a rebound rally where Wall St is acknowledging they way oversold TSLA. While we may think it's clear as day to see the incoming revenue steams and what they will do to Tesla's earnings in future years as soon as 2024 and 2025, it's not nearly as clear to Wall St. Not anything like what happened with Nvidia where 6 months ago, the a catalyst emerged that clearly was going to affect Nvidia's earnings and Wall St recognized it and jumped in big time.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Last time I checked >95% of all passenger vehicles and near 100% of heavy duty transport vehicles (semi, school buses, transit buses, dump trucks, cement trucks, mining, etc) in the World are still running on ICE. It will take 20 years to get current ICE off our roads and another 10 years to get rid of the ICE that has still yet to be manufactured. You are describing the end state 30 years from now. Even then we will still need oil/gas for jet fuel, rocket fuel, asphalt roads, all plastic products, home heating, hot water tanks, cooktop stoves, fire places and BBQs, and more. Yes, the world is changing, thanks to large part by Tesla, however to throw historical P/E out the window today is a tad premature.
You can't throw it out the window but during periods where that's major industry changes happening and macro events happening, historic trends should be discounted.
A fairly obvious example are those that think Tesla should have a P/E and P/S in the range of the historical trend for the auto sector.
Just for context, Nvidia's moment happened from 2016 and the moment is just gaining momentum. Prior to this Nvidia traded flat with low single digit PE as a graphics card gaming company for like a decade.
So when people are saying "when will Tesla have the Nvidia moment"..it's the moment Tesla traded beyond car company's average PE.
NVIDIA PE Ratio 2010-2024 | NVDA
<p>Current and historical p/e ratio for NVIDIA (NVDA) from 2010 to 2024. The price to earnings ratio is calculated by taking the latest closing price and dividing it by the most recent earnings per share (EPS) number. The PE ratio is a simple way to assess whether a stock is over or under...
www.macrotrends.net
Sure, but that's not really what we're talking about here.
Tesla and Nvidia both had their moment of "being not just what their sector/industry had dictated what they should". Where Wall St recognized that their margins and pricing power will give always give them a advantage in the space. Nvidia had there's in 2016. Tesla had theirs in 2019.
But we're talking about the 2nd moment that's fundamentally different than the first moment. Where Wall St clearly sees how the future around said company and how the dynamics around said company are going to drive future earnings much higher than they ever thought possible. Nvidia had there's 6 months ago. Clearly, Tesla has not had theres. Wall St doesn't believe in future FSD, Energy, Insurance earnings potential or that Tesla will even be able to get margins back up to their peak.
Ford gets nearly 11 figures from Uncle Joe. Also "China dominance", lol.
Ford Gets $9.2 Billion to Help US Catch Up With China’s EV Dominance
Ford Gets $9.2 Billion to Help US Catch Up With China’s EV Dominance
Since there's no tangible way for Tesla to almost double their revenue in 1 quarter, this same type of moment you are looking for wouldn't materialize the same way. It'll be a slow burn upwards with lots of pseudo moments where Tesla jumps 100 bucks and then people profit take it down when they realize the actual revenue or net profit will take time to materialize.
I honestly don't think "oh Tesla will switch on the Telsa network next Tuesday because it's ready" day will ever come. If FSD is near ready or ready, it'll still be a slow rollout as there are many push and pulls in that business beyond having your car just print money.
Just for context, Nvidia's moment happened from 2016 and the moment is just gaining momentum. Prior to this Nvidia traded flat with low single digit PE as a graphics card gaming company for like a decade.
So when people are saying "when will Tesla have the Nvidia moment"..it's the moment Tesla traded beyond car company's average PE.
NVIDIA PE Ratio 2010-2024 | NVDA
<p>Current and historical p/e ratio for NVIDIA (NVDA) from 2010 to 2024. The price to earnings ratio is calculated by taking the latest closing price and dividing it by the most recent earnings per share (EPS) number. The PE ratio is a simple way to assess whether a stock is over or under...
My hunch is Tesla will have several "Nvidia moments" over the next decade. One once Robotaxi's start roaming the streets. Another when Tesla Bots start being sold to consumers. Possibly another one once Megapacks really start contributing heavily to revenues.
As investors start realizing these things as tangible money makers, my feeling is the stock will rally to new plateaus.
Thumper
Active Member
I have no idea why you are dissing the S/X refresh. The current S is a giant improvement on the original S which I also owned. It sells well enough to be profitable and is a killer halo car. I think your negativity is unmerited.
What’s the over/under on paying it back 9 years early, with interest?
/s
Widespread naked short selling is a "loony conspiracy theory" according to Forbes. I don't know if they allow a small number of reads by non-subscribers.
The Loony Conspiracy Theory Threatening Wall Street
A group of hucksters, led by a cynical lawyer, have conjured an excuse for stock collapses and created a community now talking up violence against anyone in their way.www.forbes.com
Failure to deliver main database
zip file containing parsed data
(missing 2.5 months of TSLA FTD's)
you d/l 1/2 month data.
(bit over 300 files)
import to spreadsheet,
delimiter of |
data is yyyymmdd every day
yyyymmdd | something | something | TICKER | cns fails | closing price that day |
(more or less, it's not adjusted for the 5:1 and then 3:1 splits so you need a good guess at total # of shares if you want % fails)
sort by symbol then date
(cnsfails)
get about 3,300 lines of data TSLA (without missing 2.5 months)(anyone have?)
SEC.gov | Fails-to-Deliver Data
This text file contains the date, CUSIP numbers, ticker symbols, issuer name, price, and total number of fails-to-deliver (i.e., the balance level outstanding) recorded in the National Securities Clearing Corporation's ("NSCC") Continuous Net Settlement (CNS) system aggregated over all NSCC members.
since the 3:1 split % FTD
total number of FTD's from 2020 - late 2022
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The breakout for Nvidia around AI happened back in Oct/Nov, a full 8 months ago. Nvidia followed through on what Wall St was predicting 8 months ago and they didn't guide a doubling a revenue, they guided for a roughly 50% QoQ.
Like I said in my earlier post, it could and likely will be a quarter where some or all of those catalyst I called out merge together which causes TSLA to have it's Nvidia moment and not just double/triple, but double and bust through it's ATH. That's what the Nvidia moment is. I don't consider doubling off of a 3 year low to be roughly exactly the same valuation was 3 years ago to be that moment.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Amazon’s earnings were smashed by unusually high fuel costs and logistics costs in general. Their last few quarters have been horrible but there’s good reason to expect that to be an outlier. Therefore a superficial look at their TTM PE ratio is not helpful for understanding AMZN valuation.Its crazy to me that AMZN has a PE of 300 and is up 3% today…yet people are screaming TSLA bubble at a PE of 76Don’t even get me started on PEG ratio comps
Their fulfillment costs alone rose by $9B in 2022 vs 2021 despite lower retail sales revenue. Additionally their “Technology and Content” expenses rose $17B YoY as they increased payroll and infrastructure spending to work on expanding products and services and developing new ones.
These same kinds of overly simplified valuation snap judgments get applied to TSLA too often as well.
^ from Macrotrends
Nvidia had their cycle of capitulation just like Tesla in the 100s. It was way oversold and rebounded. However it was the ChatGTP craze that gave Nvidia more juice and then eventually we see it in the numbers. 8 Months ago Nvidia was in bad shape as they just lost 300M dollars worth of revenue due to the China ban and had a pretty substantial decrease in gaming revenue due to the post stay at home/crypto crash. So a good portion of that "break out" was just technical trading like Tesla bouncing off capitulation.
Perhaps StarFox was just commenting on the timing of the S/X refresh? There was a delay that even Elon/Tesla didn't seem to expect from when production and deliveries stopped on the old versions until when the new versions could actually be delivered. Wasn't there months on end with basically zero S/X production or availability?
Hopefully somethign similar doesn't happen with the 3 -- production shut down, followed by a long time to restart and a slow ramp.
Perhaps, if the other rumors/suspicions are true (namely, that a Highland production line is being set up at Giga Texas), this transition will be much smoother, and for a time Fremont will keep pumping out "old" Model 3's while Texas ramps up....then when Texas is at a suitable rate, Fremont's Model 3 sections can shut down and do a healthy reconfiguring of things there....and then magically in a year or two Tesla will have doubled (or better) their Model 3 production capacity.
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