Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chenkers]

Most current Tesla cars have an LFP battery now (as will more than 50% of the fleet going forward), but that isn't the relevant question for this REUTERS attack rag.

10 years ago, Model S used a NCA chemistry, and before silicon anode (which wasn't added to Panasonic 18650s until the Model S P90 was introduced).

So the discharge curve I presented is typical of the Model S cell which Tesla was shipping 10 years ago. Notice howI didn't even mention the additional complications for estimating total energy available in a multi-cell pack?

No, I don't think it's typical of an early Model S. An NCA curve is very similar to an NMC curve and both very different to LFP and the graph you've shown.

There are also plenty of test curves around for early Model S 18650's that show a similar sloping curve, such as these: Tesla Model S 18650 Cell Test Data

 

[mongo]

The cell curves (for whatever chemistry) are only relevant for a cell at rest. If the vehicle is active, they are useless. That's why BMS integrate current as well at monitor voltage.
Packs are big cells.
LFP do not suffer high SOC based degradation; not charging to 100% wastes capacity and efficiency.

Investor Engineering Discussions

 

[MartinAustin]

Ugh. Another TSLA down day ahead methinks.

Great day to buy though

 

[Artful Dodger]

No, I don't think it's typical of an early Model S. An NCA curve is very similar to an NMC curve and both very different to LFP and the graph you've shown.

Haha, you've barking at the wrong dog. This is about the personal attack on Elon. He in no way told engineers to fake range estimates. Tesla used the best available algorithms at the time, which have improved over the intervening decade. REUTERS treats their audience like idiots. You seem uninterested in that.

If you want to defend REUTERS (which was the OP's question), then please. continue.

Cheers!

 

[The Accountant]

As the Energy results improve further, it would be interesting to see what Tesla Energy's valuation would be on its own.
Not to spin the business off but to understand Tesla's 'sum of the parts' valuation.

 

[Mengy]

Ugh. Another TSLA down day ahead methinks.

Great day to buy though

Near everything is down this morning, TSLA is just following the market down.

 

[2daMoon]

Regarding the Truck charger network between South Texas and Northern California, and the ask of federal money to offset the costs, here's how it appears to me.

Tesla is likely already rolling on building this with or without help from Uncle Sam. The cost of construction is chump change for Tesla and the project is aligned with the Mission, and this seems a no brainer at a glance.

The ask is most likely in the realm of getting some of the IRA or other funding that has been offered for the various aspects of the parts that goes into such a network. Chargers (currently requiring CCS or NACS?), Batteries (various applicable funding for cell, pack, etc.), Solar.

Add to the above the clear and obvious fact that a commercial network (and possibly defining a Commercial Trucking version of NACS) are crucial to the US transitioning to electrification and Tesla is the obvious choice for getting the job done in a timely manner. Not to mention, Tesla will also be the one providing the lion's share of the fleet that will use the chargers.

This first, long-haul big rig charging network IS going to happen with more to follow. Tesla should be a recipient of funds for the sort of charger build-out that the US legislators have made incentives available for. If Tesla is given assistance, that frees up funds to further the transition in other ways. If not, well, it isn't going to affect things for Tesla in any significant way. (a hundred million here, a hundred million there...)

Bottom line, it never hurts to bump your way to the feed trough.

Edit: Just spotted this video that focuses upon this opportunity

 

[Artful Dodger]

Lots of new cars on car carriers in the Tesla Fremont outbound Logistics lot on Tue, Aug 1st, 2023: (seems the so-called 'production pause' is over)

Tesla Fremont 0801 | Met God in Wilderness​

Cheers!

 

[GOVA]

Has this article been debunked?

Tesla’s secret team to suppress thousands of driving range complaints

About a decade ago, Tesla rigged the dashboard readouts in its electric cars to provide “rosy” projections of how far owners can drive before needing to recharge, a source told Reuters.

www.reuters.com

Do you have pointers?

Self-debunked, so to speak. Because provided by Reuters.

 

[2daMoon]

Tom Nash discusses the catalyst Tesla is upon the cusp of which could launch it to a much higher SP in a relatively short time period.
Also, he provides useful background about Tesla fundamentals in comparison to Nvidia to illustrate how safe an investment Tesla is right now.

My favorite quote from the video, "Don't be Cramer"

Enjoy

 

[Cosmacelf]

Cory would be a great asset to Tesla. Expert in lean design and manufacturing

Actually, the company that could use his talents the best would be Rivian. Tesla already knows what it is doing, more or less. At any rate, it’ll be interesting to see where Cory lands.

 

[Cosmacelf]

My model Y range estimate works great in the UK when my speed maxes out at c.75mph but when driving it through France and sitting on c.85mph-90mph it consistently overestimates the distance it can travel.

The algorithm must not be able to factor in the higher speed - which is somewhat annoying as it plans for arrival at the next supercharger with 10%-15% charge and inevitably figures out that it can't reach this range and reroutes to another supercharger where I end up charging again starting at 30%-50% charge. This leads to unoptimised charging.

Sometimes I'll just ignore the Tesla charging recommendation and keep going on my intended route and hope that there are EV superchargers at the gas stations along the way but this adds stress to the trip as I'm driving a bit into the unknown and can cause issues. France appears to have excellent charging infrastructure as far as I can tell with most motorway gas stations and large supermarket chains having 150kw+ charging available.

For long trips, use A Better Route Planner, enter in your driving speeds and other data, and it’ll give you a much better optimized route. And this way, you can plan to stop at your favorite SC if they have the restaurant you like, etc.

 

[larmor]

Ugh. Another TSLA down day ahead methinks.

Great day to buy though

No its just Wednesday...

 

[Mengy]

Tom Nash discusses the catalyst Tesla is upon the cusp of which could launch it to a much higher SP in a relatively short time period.
Also, he provides useful background about Tesla fundamentals in comparison to Nvidia to illustrate how safe an investment Tesla is right now.

My favorite quote from the video, "Don't be Cramer"

Enjoy

I disagree with that video somewhat. While I do feel licensing FSD to an OEM is certainly a boon for the company financials, I don't think Wall Street will give TSLA any props for it until the licensing revenues make their way to an earnings report. My gut feeling is the stock wouldn't react much until the money is reported and a tangible adder to the bottom line.

 

[2daMoon]

I disagree with that video somewhat. While I do feel licensing FSD to an OEM is certainly a boon for the company financials, I don't think Wall Street will give TSLA any props for it until the licensing revenues make their way to an earnings report. My gut feeling is the stock wouldn't react much until the money is reported and a tangible adder to the bottom line.

 

[cliff harris]

Lots of new cars on car carriers in the Tesla Fremont outbound Logistics lot on Tue, Aug 1st, 2023: (seems the so-called 'production pause' is over)

Tesla Fremont 0801 | Met God in Wilderness​

Cheers!

I certainly cant tell from that height, but I don't think this shows us any new type of vehicle, such as a highland model 3? One of the commenters suggests its mostly S and X or Y?
If there are no model 3s coming from fremont right now, does that give us confirmation that highland release is imminent?

 

[cab]

I certainly cant tell from that height, but I don't think this shows us any new type of vehicle, such as a highland model 3? One of the commenters suggests its mostly S and X or Y?
If there are no model 3s coming from fremont right now, does that give us confirmation that highland release is imminent?

Maybe...possibly...probably. My bigger concern here (albeit short term), is that it will get a bunch of cool features that people "see" (ex: maybe a bigger screen) and, since the Y is largely based on the 3, prospective Model Y buyers might delay purchases assuming that will happen soon.
On the flipside, the 3 refresh is likely making material changes to manufacturing, whereas the Y refresh may be a lot milder (i.e. a few cosmetic interior/exterior items, extra camera, whatever). The "way" the Y is built for Juniper may not change at all and thus that refresh will likely be MUCH quicker to implement.

 

[cliff harris]

I suspect there is a war going on in elon's mind between his desire to re-engineer the model Y to be cheaper and quicker and easier to build vs the fact that its such an insanely popular car to have ANY downtime on.
Theres so much imminent stuff now:

• Cybertruck pricing
• Cybertruck deliveries
• Highland
• Semi Ramp
• Mexico construction starts
• FSD 12

It *feels* to me like we may be in one of those clam-before-the-storm moments for the stock. Good times.

 

[cab]

I suspect there is a war going on in elon's mind between his desire to re-engineer the model Y to be cheaper and quicker and easier to build vs the fact that its such an insanely popular car to have ANY downtime on.
Theres so much imminent stuff now:

• Cybertruck pricing
• Cybertruck deliveries
• Highland
• Semi Ramp
• Mexico construction starts
• FSD 12

It *feels* to me like we may be in one of those clam-before-the-storm moments for the stock. Good times.

...or even an oyster before the storm.

 

[hitchhiker]

It *feels* to me like we may be in one of those clam-before-the-storm moments for the stock. Good times.

We've been in the calm since some time in 2022... so it would be nice to see the storm start.