This is the time when I tell myself "it's going lower" and don't buy. It will match up well to when it hits $300 and I say "I should have bought at $250".
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Reuters dosnt quite get it.Easy now people, easy…
Let’s keep the shellfish remarks to a minimum here
…and with that, 3 more to call my own, thanks for the discount Reuters!
It’s all about scale and the up trends.
Once Tesla Berlin & Austin scallop to full capacity it’s game on.
Motor Mouth
Member
I drove about 125 miles yesterday basically from the San Fernando valley to Laguna beach and back and the FSD was simply amazing. Had one small issues but when you look at the highway performance, FSD is ready for prime time! Much safer than humans, most of which are texting and staring at their phones while on the highway. I do think that a solid version of FSD for city driving is much closer than we think. Apparently Elon is on FSD 12 alpha, and is raving about it.
The government is simply not ready to deal with trying to regulate/approve thus technology. Like many other instances with tech, they will be playing catch up. That to me is the real roadblock we will have before FSD is really ready and I’m afraid that will not go as fast as Tesla/Elon would like.
Just my $.02
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Jordan picks his way through Q2 Earnings and explains from his unique perspective how Tesla is likely beginning the climb out of the "Trough of Disillusionment"
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
It depends upon the jurisdiction. Autonomous driving is already approved in Florida at the manufacturer's discretion; only catch is they're responsible (as they should be).
Other will follow on a state-by-state basis. I expect adoption will be an "S" curve. Onboard video will help make the case.
Cheers!
Tesla has effectively had that since the P85D was introduced in October 2014. The system distributed torque as needed in all conditions, so effectively shut off one motor in light demand situations typically cruise and mild power application. The precise logic has been, I believe, altered from time to time and model to model, but Tesla has always had that capability. 'rear motor disconnect' as a specific item is moving back a decade for Tesla. Having optimal power distribution in AWD increases efficiency in all situations, not only one. In general the rear motor operates all the time while the front motor operates when required, although that operation is too rapid and smooth for most humans to recognize that.
There have been several engineering discussions about this over the years. FWIW, back in 2015 during a service call in Denver I was told that the Tesla AWD system updated power allocation with nanosecond responsiveness. Since then I was told that there is some variation model to model depending on specific model powertrain components.
We definitely do not want Tesla to go backwards, losing efficiency in the process. Maybe Rivian might adopt some of the decade-old Tesla technology.
GhostSkater
Member
Instead of adding parts, Tesla does something similar, but with software
Best part is no part, you still have the bearing and gear meshing losses, but they are tiny compared to the core losses of a motor freewheeling
When you operate the motor as a reluctance one, you essentially turn off all the losses that would be caused by the permanent magnets
This is why Tesla is one of the few manufacturers that the vehicles barely have an efficiency hit when going from single, to double or even triple motors
All others OEMs use some complex or/and expensive solution, Rivian with the clutch disconnect, Taycan with the two speed gearbox, Merces with the crazy externally excited stator that requires voltage and brushes that wear off and have to be serviced one day
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Most folks don't understand the aspects of how personal responsibility is a basis of Common Law, upon which the (US) legal system is based. Meaning that if a company wants to release autonomous vehicles they will shoulder the burden of responsibility for them as well.
People posting about how some level of approval must be there first probably don't understand that a statute more often comes after a problem arises, rather than before. (and when it precedes the problem a statute may be only "feel good" legislation)
This freedom to try new things, while simultaneously taking responsibility for consequences, is an essential cornerstone of a functionally growing civilization.
The concept that each person's world is meant to be governed by somebody else in order for them to be safe is misguided, at best.
Elon seems to take his responsibility for others' safety very much to heart and will make every effort to improve the human condition by the actions of his companies. When Tesla releases their Autonomous Vehicle it will likely be based upon higher standards than any legislature could even conceive of.
Last edited:
GhostSkater
Member
Rashomon
Member
Tesla has never had motor disconnect in any of their autos, only the Semi. Instead, in the early cars they used induction motors both front and rear, which, when unpowered, have essentially no cogging losses like PMAC motors do. But PMAC (permanent magnet) motors are generally much more efficient, and later Teslas installed PMAC motors, though I believe (not certain) that front motors remained induction in most cases so they could depower them for cruise conditions without drag. The Semi, which uses all PMAC motors, has clutched motors that can be disconnected for cruise, when using a minimal motor count is more efficient. The Semi clutch system, like the Rivian, is a mechanical interlock, not a friction clutch, and both rely on sophisticated control algorithms to sync the mechanical engagement, something easy to do when you're working with e-motors and not an ICE powerplant. I would not be surprised to see a mechanical clutch on some of the motors of the CyberTruck, and on future Teslas using multiple PMAC motors -- it really is the most efficient system when you want lots of power for acceleration and lots of efficiency for cruise. While Tesla latest permanent magnet motors do have some reluctance motor effects (this is something most permanent magnet auto motors have been trending toward, all the way back to the BMW i3), they still have cogging losses when being towed along unpowered but rotating.
Last edited:
Wow, seems like a pretty big deal.
Exactly. The current Model S&X use all PM motors, so they could likely benefit from having a disconnect so that one motor can be powered down, or 2 motors in the case of the Plaid variants. (My understanding is that you can't power down a PM motor and have it freewheel, it would create drag and likely cause damage.)
With all the data Tesla accumulates, both meta and Driver Profile-linked driving habits, why can't they approximate each driver's likely speed- and thereby each driver's effective range - very accurately?
Calm before the storm? There was just a massive storm - that brought TSLA from $160 to $290 and a PE ratio over 80. Current PE ratio still above 70, while earnings growth is perceived to be between 0% and maybe 30% for next year.
What, exactly will those bullet points do to boost earnings growth for 2024? Isn't some Cybertruck earnings priced into 2024 already?
The Semi isn't ramping yet because there aren't cells nor automated production line. Mexico construction means nothing for 2024, only when we are in 2024 and there is some light at the tunnel about when production may start (in 2025) will it affect stock price.
FSD 12 is a potential game changer - but the market won't value it as retail investors do until it either affects profit margins or is really, really close to robotaxi (we are few orders of magnitude in reliability away from that).
Do people think the stock price should just go up because exciting things are happening? It should because there is more confidence in a lot more money being earned in the nearish future.
I'd say that this is bullish. Quite a large delivery center.
www.dailynews.com
Tesla to turn closed Pacific Theatres in Chatsworth into delivery hub, service center
Tesla hopes to demolish multiplex theatre, shops and fitness center to build huge repair/service center in Chatsworth.
www.dailynews.com
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Which do you believe affects a rising stock price more,
"confidence in a lot more money being earned"
or,
a double-shot of Hope-ium?
or,
a double-shot of Hope-ium?
It always seemed to me that more buying demand for the stock than selling of it (for whatever reason) is the thing that causes the price to go up.
Some of those people might actually be confident in making money as you have indicated.
Some might be a little scared of losing and take the chance anyway.
Some buys might be actions dictated by an algorithm, while others might just be shorts covering.
Some might even be because some exciting things are happening.
There may be one or two more possibilities (or, in fact, an infinite number), but this list is long enough to demonstrate the myriad parts of a chaotic system that is affecting the stock price.
I can see how someone only interested in the "nearish future" would like to believe what you posted when they place their bet, but it is hardly THE only thing that drives the SP up.
Last edited:
I'd say that this is bullish. Quite a large delivery center.
Tesla to turn closed Pacific Theatres in Chatsworth into delivery hub, service center
Tesla hopes to demolish multiplex theatre, shops and fitness center to build huge repair/service center in Chatsworth.
5 min away from me
Guess i know where ill be picking up my CT eventually.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
If anyone has a brain in the burgeoning EV marketplace, some OEM will snap him up and make him their EVP of Engineering or something like that. A guy like this let loose at Rivian or Lucid would really make a gigantic difference for those companies.
GhostSkater
Member
Model 3/Y (that we know) - Induction/SynRM-PM motors
S/X - SynRM-PM motors
Semi - SynRM-PM motors, two which have a clutch disconnect
On the Semi case it's due to the gearing being much higher, it needs the peak power at much lower speeds. Also the two motors that do disconnect have a significantly higher gear ratio than the always connected one, there is a whole another set of gears on them
On Plaid, the rotors will reach 20k rpm at over 200 mph, while in the Semi it's likely much lower, specially for the acceleration drive units, there is even a chance that the top speed on those two motors are 60 mph or lower, geared down a lot for maximum power at the speeds they will be needed
This comes with a cost, most of rpm related losses on a drive unit are proportional to rpm^2~rpm^3, so cruising with them spinning at 20k rpm is really wasteful and the trick of operating the motor in reluctance mode only gets you so far
If anyone is on the mood of counting gear teeth we can work back the motor rpm vs speed, there is some frames on the launch video where you can clearly see all gears
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
