Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

U.S. core CPI posts smallest back-to-back increases in two years | BNN Bloomberg

U.S. core CPI posts smallest back-to-back increases in two years - BNN Bloomberg

A key measure of U.S. consumer prices rose only modestly for a second month, bolstering hopes that the Federal Reserve can tame inflation without sparking a recession.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Cheers to the Inflatons!

 

[GrandEnigma]

^ Until it is quietly adjusted up in a few weeks

 

[MartinAustin]

That's a lovely shooting star opening today...

 

[Usain]

Uber burned cash from inception, so did Amazon. It's good to make profits but not really a requirement. Dont believe me? Look at corporate Japan which rarely if ever produced profits in key industries in the 80s and into 90s . They invested in market share and really that is still the goal from what I glean from my relatives. What is key is having enough cash to make it to some point where your losses stop. Uber maybe just got there.

Waymo will not run out of money, google can fund Waymo with 2 qrt profit until the point I would predict cash flow neutral. Now that Cruise has some velocity I would be astounded if they run out of funds. I am sure Tesla gets to working FSD just not sure when.

I view Waymo as more dangerous, Google has lots of reasons to want captive non driving consumers in a vehicle. Ad money for restaurants, for bars, for groceries, etc. Nobody makes more from ads than google and this gives them a new market.

I don't think Google and GM will keep throwing money at Waymo/Cruise indefinitely. Both Waymo and Cruise need to find a path to profitability. Maybe they will, but it's hard to see how it will happen soon.

Tesla needs to find a path to FSD that is good enough for robotaxis.

It's hard to say who will reach its goal first.

My thesis is that it really doesn't matter who gets there first as long as Tesla gets there eventually. The reason is that even if Waymo or Cruise is first to market, they will never be able to compete with Tesla on price. A Tesla robotaxi will always be cheaper to build and operate than a Waymo or a Cruise. Thus, Tesla will be able to charge less and win any market it decides to enter.

Your idea about ad revenue is interesting. What if all rides were free, but you are forced to view the ads? I think Tesla would still win that game because their cost structure is so much lower.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

We had a BMW i3 REx. I rather liked that design and was disappointed to see it discontinued (not profitable?). My understanding is that these are less common than the dual powertrain PHEV.

The idea of a range extender for an electric only powertrain makes a lot of sense to people who aren’t confident in charging infrastructure or only occasionally drive more than the EV only range. I think these are more likely to get plugged in daily (this is just a hunch).

It seems like with the range extender solution; manufacturers could get away with smaller batteries but still sharpen their EV chops as they scale battery sourcing. Like F series lightning with 150miles of all EV + range extended to 250/300 with a diesel electric generator and 10 gallon diesel tank.

Not too different than the plan for my cybertruck. If towing my travel trailer, I could charge using its onboard generator as an emergency backup range extender.

I had one as well, i don't know about you, but have you ever tried going up a semi-steep hill with 4 people on the range extender? That experience alone is frightening enough to make you never want to run out of battery.

 

[unk45]

Yes. I view PHEV as a gateway to expose more people to the potential and benefits of all-electric travel (as my daughter’s Prius did for me in 2014). They will certainly be charged and used in all-electric mode by families already owning a BEV, e.g., drivers who want to capture most of the environmental benefits but avoid charging stops on longer trips (my wife, for one). An option for a larger battery to bring local range up to 50-60 miles would make a difference in sales volumes IMHO (I’m waiting on that to replace a hybrid SUV).

This might be a minority of PHEV owners, but I'm confident it is a significance force even if that is true. Among my personal acquaintances are several onetime Volt owners who graduated to BEV, including a couple of Bolt's and Model 3's. The i3 owners were never numerous, but all three of the ones I know graduated to Tesla, one each Model S, X and 3. With the rapid increases in battery-only range in the PHEV's ti seems more likely than not that many will transition to BEV as the charging infrastructure grows.

However that develops it is almost certain to generate more profitable revenue for Tesla, from TE if not cars, but more likely both.

 

[2daMoon]

I had one as well, i don't know about you, but have you ever tried going up a semi-steep hill with 4 people on the range extender? That experience alone is frightening enough to make you never want to run out of battery.

The "going up a semi-steep hill with 4 people on the range extender" painted a picture in my head of some sort of harness where four people are outside the car and pushing or pulling to get the car up the hill as a way to lengthen the battery range.

 

[Tony73]

I don't think Google and GM will keep throwing money at Waymo/Cruise indefinitely. Both Waymo and Cruise need to find a path to profitability. Maybe they will, but it's hard to see how it will happen soon.

Tesla needs to find a path to FSD that is good enough for robotaxis.

It's hard to say who will reach its goal first.

I see no evidence that Waymo and Cruise are attempting to scale. Sure they now carry passengers and charge a fee but how many cars do they have deployed ? Across all their markets, it’s still less than a thousand cars in total. They may have expanded to a few new cities but they have not attempted to achieve any kind of scale in any market. That sounds more like a beta program.

Talk of profitability is moot until there are at least a half a million cars deployed and the top 100 metro areas are covered.

 

[Nocturnal]

I see no evidence that Waymo and Cruise are attempting to scale. Sure they now carry passengers and charge a fee but how many cars do they have deployed ? Across all their markets, it’s still less than a thousand cars in total. They may have expanded to a few new cities but they have not attempted to achieve any kind of scale in any market. That sounds more like a beta program.

Talk of profitability is moot until there are at least a half a million cars deployed and the top 100 metro areas are covered.

And that's with an extremely limited scope. Select roads within those cities, still capped at low speeds (is it still 30mph?) etc. It's hard to imagine customers are using these as anything more than a novelty as it is.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I came across this explanation as to why Japan went with Hydrogen. I only watched Part 1 below, but very informative.

In a nutshell...

1. China was the key supplier of rare earth minerals for Japan - used as leverage on Japanese markets since early 2000's.
2. EVs/Batteries became risky for Japan, China had already cut off materials in 2014 to Japan over a fishing dispute/water rights.
3. Toyota and Honda executives dominated the politics from the inside and took advantage of Japanese Hydrogen subsidies.
4. The end.

 

[jeewee3000]

Meanwhile, Tesla waits quietly in the wings, gathering data, until FSD is deemed ready for prime time. Once this moment is reached it will be like watching a steam roller taking out these Geo-map-restricted services playing at the autonomy game.

The biggest problem with future expectations of Tesla FSD is that there is no certainty whatsoever that HW3 will ever be approved for full autonomy (i.e. no driver).

HW4 added radar back in after it was removed.

HW3/4 has no ultrasonic sensors so for tight manoeuvres the car has to rely on Tesla Vision/Occupancy Network, which - as of today - is inaccurate at best, unusable at worst. (source: my 2023 Model Y, distance estimation from Tesla Vision is extremely flawed and unreliable. It even makes we wonder if Autopark will ever come back online).

If Tesla Vision can be trained further to be 99.9999% reliable I'll swallow my words, but given what I see now (and the evolution of FSD since the first Autonomy day), I don't expect "robotaxis" soon.

In other words, "the greatest asset value increase of all time" as Elon calls it, will only be relevant to the hardware suite that can support robotaxis. I sincerely hope that'll be HW3, but every passing day I become more skeptical.

Otherwise I'm very bullish on Tesla. But "instant deployment of robotaxis through an OTA" seems a fairy tale to me. The hardware is insufficient IMO.

 

[2daMoon]

The biggest problem with future expectations of Tesla FSD is that there is no certainty whatsoever that HW3 will ever be approved for full autonomy (i.e. no driver).

HW4 added radar back in after it was removed.

HW3/4 has no ultrasonic sensors so for tight manoeuvres the car has to rely on Tesla Vision/Occupancy Network, which - as of today - is inaccurate at best, unusable at worst. (source: my 2023 Model Y, distance estimation from Tesla Vision is extremely flawed and unreliable. It even makes we wonder if Autopark will ever come back online).

If Tesla Vision can be trained further to be 99.9999% reliable I'll swallow my words, but given what I see now (and the evolution of FSD since the first Autonomy day), I don't expect "robotaxis" soon.

In other words, "the greatest asset value increase of all time" as Elon calls it, will only be relevant to the hardware suite that can support robotaxis. I sincerely hope that'll be HW3, but every passing day I become more skeptical.

Otherwise I'm very bullish on Tesla. But "instant deployment of robotaxis through an OTA" seems a fairy tale to me. The hardware is insufficient IMO.

I suppose this will be a major factor...

if Tesla stops manufacturing cars altogether.​

Even if this presumed "problem" manifests itself in reality, the growing number of new cars with higher HW levels will continue to make the HW3 vehicles less significant in the greater scheme of bringing robotaxis to the masses. Only those who own the early HW versions will be affected. This will represent a smaller and smaller percentage of the overall fleet as years go by.

Granted, such a proclamation by Tesla would be disappointing to those owners, but it really won't affect the big picture much at all.

Then again, Tesla has repeatedly indicated their intention to make FSD work with HW3. Without evidence to the contrary we are left with only speculation as to whether this is actually an issue at all.

 

[FireMedic]

I had one as well, i don't know about you, but have you ever tried going up a semi-steep hill with 4 people on the range extender? That experience alone is frightening enough to make you never want to run out of battery.

Wow, it sounds like you’re much more adventurous than me!

Tbh; I never really took advantage of the range extender. I had this vehicle as a commuter and I charged it at work every day so there was really very little thought involved.

But that really is my point, as a consumer, I thought it was important to have the REx so it was a good selling feature. Though it wasn’t necessary, it allowed me to overlook the lower range figure.

To me it seems like it’s a workaround for this battery shortage situation that legacy is either on the cusp of or already in the throes of…

It’s my opinion, for mass market cars (not talking trucks or other types) phev with tiny batteries are a non starter. People (will?) want full BEV or at worst; medium battery phev with range extender.

 

[Stretch2727]

Elon showing some confidence in the position of Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689182307863703552

 

[2daMoon]

That varies a lot by car. The fist generation Volt had a mountain mode to guard against this and the RAV4 Prime has a noticeably stronger gas engine so it is not a problem. The I3 was particularly bad in this reguard.

Are you saying the Volt and I3 actually did have a harness to be deployed so passengers may be used as mules to move the vehicle?

/jk

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm enjoying watching the Wall St narrative shift this morning on inflation. Just two weeks ago, I read plenty of fear mongering amongst Goldman, JPMorgan, etc saying...July CPI will likely be hotter than expected...that YoY increase could be as high as 3.5%. Then last week, they then quietly tempered down the rhetoric and also there estimates to 3.3-3.4%.

And now that the actual data came in cooler, the headline now is headline is "Inflation rose for the first time in a year!". Nevermind the fact that the MoM increase was .2% which equates annually to exactly what the Fed is wanting.

Oh and if you actually look at the main contributor, shelter, which was 90% of the inflation for July, you can really see how lagging that data is. Take for example, the June CPI print which said shelter increased .4% Mom. Which doesn't work out to all the other data that's been put out from other independent sources such as https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/20/homes/existing-home-sales-june/index.html#:~:text=Even after falling, June’s median price hit the,all-time high from one year ago of $413,800. Feel free to check Zillow/Redfin data as well. Don't even get me started on how grossly incompetent the Fed's way of collecting data on rent is

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689608651168722945

 

[lascavarian]

Re Yaccarino interview, down to 1500ish employees. Nearly breakeven point and beginning to hire again.

Hard questions to her. She was up to it. A lot of explaining from her which was good. Discussed the cage match.

Discussed strict moderation and “Freedom of speech but not reach” and “Lawful but Awful speech”. Feels they are 99% successful enforcing their rules. Feels advertising has the tools to be comfortable building on the platform.

Seemed pretty clear that Twitter is not the point and that the everything platform (X) is the quickly evolving goal for her.

My opinion, seems like X becomes the community utility platform for all Musk initiatives pretty soon. X becomes all things life defining - supplanting Governance, commerce, education, information/AI, resources, entertainment and technology.

Pretty big vision IMO. YMMV

edit to add link

 

[SOULPEDL]

245? Go Fish. Edit: Maybe? Let's see tomorrow...
I thought today was Friday for a certain reason.

Spoiler: Max Pain

And then...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Wow, it sounds like you’re much more adventurous than me!

Tbh; I never really took advantage of the range extender. I had this vehicle as a commuter and I charged it at work every day so there was really very little thought involved.

But that really is my point, as a consumer, I thought it was important to have the REx so it was a good selling feature. Though it wasn’t necessary, it allowed me to overlook the lower range figure.

To me it seems like it’s a workaround for this battery shortage situation that legacy is either on the cusp of or already in the throes of…

It’s my opinion, for mass market cars (not talking trucks or other types) phev with tiny batteries are a non starter. People (will?) want full BEV or at worst; medium battery phev with range extender.

Honestly, i was niave about EV's back then in 2014 when i purchased it. Went for a test drive and i was like 'whoa, this thing can move.' They were offering $5k off instantly + $2.5k back from the state and i also had free charging at work. Little did i know that when the REx kicked in, cyclists were able to pass me .
Strange how the salesperson failed to mention something like "When you run out of battery, do not go up steep hills if you have passengers" rather he said "Don't worry about running out of battery, the gas engine will kick in and get you to the next battery charging station"