Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[capster]

Well if you're inferring that since FSD at that point would be hand-free and non-beta then it infers that :

- All functionality is implemented and active in FSD
- Edge cases for FSD have been near eliminated
- False positives such as phantom breaking, lane drift, etc...are all things from the past

I don't think FSD goes hands free until and is officially out of beta until functionality is complete and Tesla is well into the march of 9's.

As for stock price, I think you're looking at 3 re-rating events that will happen and it's possible all three happen with a 12 month span.

Re-rate 1 - FSD moves out of beta, is hands free which infers disengagements are incredibly low since Tesla is confident enough to take on liability. Tesla's FSD approach is thus confirmed as viable and likely market leading thanks to their approach (rate of expansion and cost of expansion verses competitors)

Re-rate 2 - Other auto makers begin licensing FSD which takes Tesla's autonomy vision from market leading to mass adopted

Re-rate 3 - FSD SAAS flowing into earnings

It's entirely possible that Re-Rate 2 and 3 happen close to the same time or they may be spread apart. Re-rate 3 could actually happen before re-rate 2.

But overall, I could easily see each Re-Rate adding 500 million onto Tesla's market cap with the biggie, Re-Rate #3, leading to a trillion dollar addition to Tesla's current market cap.

Or, it may imply less than you suggest. For example, FSD may allow hands free under certain conditions and in certain places but not all.

So long as FSD can tell you to put your hands on the wheel in sufficient time to handle whatever the situation is that requires your attention, it’d be fine.

Indeed, there may be ways to prune the edgiest cases from what robotaxis need to perform to go to market.

That is, I’m suggesting there may be some forms of situation ‘fencing’ as well as some geo-fencing. Maybe it can’t back up in such and so situation or maybe it can’t manage the ferry I often take.

As long as it can alert the driver—you need to pay attention here—or the potential rideshare passenger (via the app when the are seeking a ride)—that destination or a particular route thereto is not available yet—autonomy could perform much more safely than a human in the vast majority of drives sooner than many expect.

 

[GhostSkater]

Argh. This doesn't sound like it will be anytime soon. If they are still polishing it then ok. Sure would be nice to get some sort of info though.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694460811291578722

This is just my analysis by watching Joe videos, but I think every stainless steel panel is not being on site as seen by the wood crates with them in pics, you don't put those parts in crates on the same factory

This works for the first ones, but not if want to ramp, and that will only happen when the AIDA presses are working and making CT panels, which doesn't look like its the case, also, they is a whole chemical dipping tank, which is for the protection process sitting on the parking lot still, so the few CT that we've seen are probably being passed on the Model Y tanks, again, works for a few units but not if you want to ramp

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Wow,

Nvidia just approved a $25B share buyback, must have too much cash on hand

 

[uscbucsfan]

I'm surprised James even tweeted Elon like that after their last interaction.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I'm surprised James even tweeted Elon like that after their last interaction.

You mean you're surprised Elon responded to James after their last interaction

 

[larmor]

Welp...guess $NVDA gonna help $TSLA tomorrow

Because ongoing TSLA beat quarter after quarter clearly is not a metric that the Street uses.

 

[cab]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694460989167829422

Argh. This doesn't sound like it will be anytime soon. If they are still polishing it then ok. Sure would be nice to get some sort of info though.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694460811291578722

Elon saying it is "an extremely difficult product to build" isn't a phrase I would normally associate with "low cost to build and low price to consumer"...hoping they can pull off some of their COGS magic here. We'll know when we know I guess...

 

[cliff harris]

I don't think I ever thought there would be mass production in Q3, but I was hopeful to see some deliveries (and a delivery event) in Q3, which is what I think will lead to a lot of press (and a resulting boost to 3/Y sales, and a tick up in the SP).
TBH though, Q4 is isn't exactly far away. Even if NOTHING happens until Q4, we dont have long to wait now.

 

[replicant]

You mean you're surprised Elon responded to James after their last interaction

What was it?

 

[uscbucsfan]

Elon saying it is "an extremely difficult product to build" isn't a phrase I would normally associate with "low cost to build and low price to consumer"...hoping they can pull off some of their COGS magic here. We'll know when we know I guess...

Elon has said the CT is really difficult to make for almost 2 years. He also said it's difficult to make them affordable.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I don't think I ever thought there would be mass production in Q3, but I was hopeful to see some deliveries (and a delivery event) in Q3, which is what I think will lead to a lot of press (and a resulting boost to 3/Y sales, and a tick up in the SP).
TBH though, Q4 is isn't exactly far away. Even if NOTHING happens until Q4, we dont have long to wait now.

Mass production of the CT won't happen until 2024. This hasn't shifted for over a year.

 

[tracksyde]

What was it?

 

[wipster]

Elon has said the CT is really difficult to make for almost 2 years. He also said it's difficult to make them affordable.

When did he discuss affordability? Sorry, I don't recall him talking about that, making them is another story

 

[insaneoctane]

Argh. This doesn't sound like it will be anytime soon. If they are still polishing it then ok. Sure would be nice to get some sort of info though.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694460811291578722

Reminds me a bit of the MX "hubris"....

 

[AndrewZ]

When did he discuss affordability? Sorry, I don't recall him talking about that, making them is another story

1:31:15 on the Annual Shareholders event three months ago, is the latest example I can think of

2023 Annual Shareholder Meeting

2023 Annual Shareholder Meeting 0:00:10 - Intro | Martin Viecha 0:02:26 - Greeting | Robyn Denholm0:09:48 - Meeting Called to Order + Proposals | Martin Viec...

www.youtube.com

Elon has been saying this type of stuff for a while now though, people still want to believe it will be cheap and easy to make

 

[insaneoctane]

Either we're just not patient due to our junkie-like need for the next SP catalyst, or Tesla announces products waaay too early. Any objective evidence of which one it is?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Either we're just not patient due to our junkie-like need for the next SP catalyst, or Tesla announces products waaay too early. Any objective evidence of which one it is?

YES

 

[elasalle]

Reminds me a bit of the MX "hubris"....

Or an excuse to up the price

 

[Artful Dodger]

Gee I wonder why BI would be timed this "insider source" piece to come out right now? On a day when Powell speaks and Nvidia's earnings are going to massively impact the market?

Note that JPow speaks on Friday a.m.

U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch

FRIDAY, AUG.25
10:00 am	U Mich consumer sentiment, final	Aug.		71.2%	71.2%
10:05 am	Fed Chair Powell gives opening speech at Jackson Hole summit

 

[wipster]

1:31:15 on the Annual Shareholders event three months ago, is the latest example I can think of

2023 Annual Shareholder Meeting

2023 Annual Shareholder Meeting 0:00:10 - Intro | Martin Viecha 0:02:26 - Greeting | Robyn Denholm0:09:48 - Meeting Called to Order + Proposals | Martin Viec...

www.youtube.com

Elon has been saying this type of stuff for a while now though, people still want to believe it will be cheap and easy to make

Thanks for the info. We'll know soon enough!