Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Snerruc]

CarMax was $17k, Tesla says $20.9k. So, yeah.

FWIW, I got a CarMax estimate in early July and at that time they offered $21k. Vagaries of the market, I guess. Other people doing the same thing I’m doing, maybe?

Don’t forget you pay sales tax only on the difference in some states. That can be thousands of dollars. Last car I bought, Tesla was $1000 lower than Carmax, but the deal was $2000 better trading with Tesla because of sales tax.

 

[Drax7]

Regardless of the general public's knowledge of EVs, Tesla is selling every car they can produce. Advertising in such a scenario will lead to longer waits for the car and people complaining about it.

Once Tesla gets production to the point that they have significantly more cars coming off the line than they have buyers, then, you will see Tesla ads. Not before.

Yeah, selling every car they make at a reduced price, though maybe advertising would allow selling every car at a higher price.

 

[Usain]

You misunderstood/misread my post. I didn’t say anything about Tesla announcing one half. I just said that that is roughly what it’ll be based on the 12,000 number of stations that had been announced. ANYWAYS, my thesis still stands that I think the SC network had to grow to this scale before it would be possible for Tesla to pull off the NACS announcements and deal they offered everyone.

Of course if EA hadn’t botched their rollout, it could have been a different story. But botch it they did.

Totally agree.

But I also think it's a non-issue going forward. Tesla has become super-efficient in rolling out new locations. I'm betting that the long term goal for Tesla is for Superchargers to become so ubiquitous that all locations will be available to all EVs. Part of that goal is also that instances of someone waiting for an open charger will become very rare.

There will be a short period of time when some locations will need to be closed to non-Tesla vehicles because Tesla needs to take care of its own customers. But eventually, there will be no need for a walled garden in any location.

So I think it's more helpful to turn this whole question around. Instead of thinking about how many chargers will be open to non-Teslas, think about how many will be closed. The number inside the walled garden needs to become zero for Tesla to achieve total dominance over fast charging in North America.

 

[Snerruc]

Simplistic statements and superficial reasoning do not help evaluate sales and promotion strategy. Discussions of ‘advertising’ rarely consider all the subtleties of effective promotional strategy. Bluntly, Tesla uses the ‘holy grail of promotion’, Word of Mouth, in a 21st century manner through social media, customer referrals and highly effective promotion of NACS and Supercharger access that reach most of the entire BEV markets in NA and EU at negative cost. Can any other OEM do that? The list of such techniques grows.

Fundamentally conventional wide media advertising is ONLY effective when promoting universally used product classes, such as soap, personal care and generic food P&G, Nestle etc are obvious ones. For less universal ones the use of advertising reduces margins. Uninformed and self-serving people (advertising agencies and corporate beneficiaries) often use the infamous pair of metrics, ‘cost per reach’ and ‘unaided recall’ as proof of effectiveness. Frankly, statistics can be used to make these logical. Those are exacerbated by the auto dealers, whose attention span is limited to learning how to game OEM policies and close individual deals.

Tesla awareness is high, as is FUD from all those whose interests are harmed by the Tesla distribution system. All of us need to learn that the Tesla distribution system is vastly more efficient than is indirect sales. Similarly, we all need to understand that a frightening collateral effect of direct sakes is transparency in pricing. Nobody here blinks an eye when Mercedes-Benz or BMW gives dealer incentives and/or consumer rebates, subvened leases and loans, but scream loudly when Tesla reduces prices or gives referral perks . Both have similar effects on resale values, but superficial examination shows nothing for the others, but direct clarity fir Tesla.

Those who are frustrated and fearful about these things need to understand the fundamentals:
-Tesla cost per sale is a far below any dealer distribution model. Precise comparisons are difficult because apples to apples comparisons cannot be made due to accounting convention treatments. As a general rule the dealer model costs between 20 and 30 percent of retail sales, depending on country (that includes sales, F&I, warranty profit, service profit.). The equivalent for Tesla is around 15%.
FWIW, these generalizations are extracted from a comprehensive direct/indirect comparison made by my firm fir a major OEM that rued unsuccessfully to establish direct sakes for a new brand.

In short, nobody arguing for “advertising” to increase profitability or sales seems to understand 21st century marketing. More specifically, 21st century promotion including AÍ aided targeting. In this world nobody cares if non-prospects even recognize the name. In this world BEV adoption is similar to that of telephones, refrigerators, household electricity, cellular phones, automobiles , commercial airplane travel and all those other revolutionary products.

Just think about this. Model Y as the best selling car model in the world. Tesla still is barely scratching the surface of geographic markets, much less storage products. Adopting old-fashioned advertising is a horrible mistake! Tesla is humoring the enthusiasts who don’t understand, but they’ll not make stupid moves.

I’m not sure, why advertise when nobody pays attention to them? That’s what killed newspapers and sold people on cable.

 

[Usain]

The problem is that education takes time, people have thick heads, specially with something so political like EVs

Yeah. It's becoming a Republican talking point to come out against the woke cars. The Republican party is becoming staunchly anti-EV. This is a time when Elon could help out a lot. He's got some cred on the right these days. Time to use it.

 

[Usain]

Just when you think you have seen it all .. $TSLAQ comes up with a gem

Btw, I have two CT reservations, with plans to pick up whichever gets delivered first (in 5-10 years )

https://twitter.com/x/status/1704924698549915901

So because stainless steel is too expensive, they are adding a wrap that makes it more expensive?

$TSLAQ logic is pretty awesome.

 

[cliff harris]

I’m not sure, why advertise when nobody pays attention to them? That’s what killed newspapers and sold people on cable.

You really dont think advertising works? Of course it does. I've spent hundreds of thousands of dollars advertising my business, and its made me a small fortune. Advertising works. Anyone who thinks it doesn't, or that they are uninfluenced by it should read 'seducing the subconcious' and 'the advertised mind;. Its not even up for debate. People have done studies including MRI scans of people as they watch ads. Its not a con, or snake oil. Advertising works, on everyone. And ironicly, the ads that you think you 'forgot' are absolutely the MOST effective ones.

 

[Unpilot]

You really dont think advertising works? Of course it does. I've spent hundreds of thousands of dollars advertising my business, and its made me a small fortune. Advertising works. Anyone who thinks it doesn't, or that they are uninfluenced by it should read 'seducing the subconcious' and 'the advertised mind;. Its not even up for debate. People have done studies including MRI scans of people as they watch ads. Its not a con, or snake oil. Advertising works, on everyone. And ironicly, the ads that you think you 'forgot' are absolutely the MOST effective ones.

I agree, advertising works...we here are probably just differing on what constitutes advertising.

I am a walking talking pro-Tesla ad 24/7. My immediate circle probably tunes me out.....but I am directly responsible for 3 other Tesla cars being bought.

I would bet that over 80% of Tesla owners sell the car to friends/neighbors. Even the odd FUD story of the disgruntled Tesla owner probably helps in the long run.

 

[Singuy]

You really dont think advertising works? Of course it does. I've spent hundreds of thousands of dollars advertising my business, and its made me a small fortune. Advertising works. Anyone who thinks it doesn't, or that they are uninfluenced by it should read 'seducing the subconcious' and 'the advertised mind;. Its not even up for debate. People have done studies including MRI scans of people as they watch ads. Its not a con, or snake oil. Advertising works, on everyone. And ironicly, the ads that you think you 'forgot' are absolutely the MOST effective ones.

There's no doubt advertisement works for products that requires attention.

However what Elon managed have done is unprecedented. There has never been a car company that have climbed this fast in sales at these price ranges in the history of car production. The model Y managed to be the number one seller vs cars half the ASP. He sold these Teslas with zero advertisements. So all the genius out here trying to convince Elon that advertisement is important while other car companies are looking real hard at Tesla as to why they sold so well without ads. This is why you begin seeing CEOs of other companies on Twitter start trolling like Elon and trying different tactics similar to what Tesla has done but would normally get them fired by a conservative board.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Yeah. It's becoming a Republican talking point to come out against the woke cars. The Republican party is becoming staunchly anti-EV. This is a time when Elon could help out a lot. He's got some cred on the right these days. Time to use it.

In my experience it hasnt been a red vs blue thing for the everyday person, but rather a fear of change and new technology. I have plenty of republican friends (including myself), that have been driving EVs for years now. Every time I talk to someone about it the objection isnt a politically biased one, but rather that of the fear of the unknown. My neighbor for example, who is very liberal, is worried what they would do in the event of a power outage, or if they ran out of battery, and they dont like computers so using the car is scary and the most recent objection of not wanting to support a billionaire...It's an issue of education, but unfortunately not every EV is the same, so it makes it quite challenging to sift through the various concerns.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Yeah. It's becoming a Republican talking point to come out against the woke cars. The Republican party is becoming staunchly anti-EV. This is a time when Elon could help out a lot. He's got some cred on the right these days. Time to use it.

cybertruck

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

I agree, advertising works...we here are probably just differing on what constitutes advertising.

I am a walking talking pro-Tesla ad 24/7. My immediate circle probably tunes me out.....but I am directly responsible for 3 other Tesla cars being bought.

I would bet that over 80% of Tesla owners sell the car to friends/neighbors. Even the odd FUD story of the disgruntled Tesla owner probably helps in the long run.

Some of my local buddies are real stick in the mud VW/Audi fans with a decent amount of cash but have not been considering buying a Tesla car. They have however been sold Powerwalls by the local Solar Guy and are now glued to the Tesla App day and night. Lets see how long before they buy a Model Y

 

[Nocturnal]

I’m not sure, why advertise when nobody pays attention to them? That’s what killed newspapers and sold people on cable.

People say they don't pay attention, but it's not true. Advertising can literally brainwash you to prefer a less tasty soda for example. For Tesla, I'd just be happy with basic specs being sold. Price, ease of home charging etc.

Only 19% of buyers would buy an EV regardless of price right now. That's terrible.

 

[2daMoon]

Yeah, selling every car they make at a reduced price, though maybe advertising would allow selling every car at a higher price.

Okay, so you are suggesting that they should implement the overhead of a new department to create ads, and spend money putting the ads out there, and also raise the price (to cover the cost of the advertising)? This appears to be mostly a null exercise.

Are you basing this statement on a belief that having a higher price is important to a company which has as part of its master plan the lowering of the price?

It seems to me that the only ones who benefit in this scenario are the employees in the new advertising department. Which likely has a lot to do with why Tesla sees no need to embark upon that project until other factors demonstrate a greater benefit. Such as increased production and lower costs having reached a point where advertising is needed to move more of the product than word of mouth can move.

Tesla isn't there, yet, though I do look forward to seeing what kind of ads Tesla comes up with when they do reach that point.

 

[Usain]

In my experience it hasnt been a red vs blue thing for the everyday person, but rather a fear of change and new technology. I have plenty of republican friends (including myself), that have been driving EVs for years now. Every time I talk to someone about it the objection isnt a politically biased one, but rather that of the fear of the unknown. My neighbor for example, who is very liberal, is worried what they would do in the event of a power outage, or if they ran out of battery, and they dont like computers so using the car is scary and the most recent objection of not wanting to support a billionaire...It's an issue of education, but unfortunately not every EV is the same, so it makes it quite challenging to sift through the various concerns.

Yes, I think you accurately captured the state of play up until now.

But we need to pay attention to what is starting to happen. Trump has just come out against EVs and now others on the right are starting to parrot his talking points.

Up until now, EVs have not taken center stage in political discourse. But the UAW strike has forced it out into the open and EVs are becoming a political football.

(I get it that the mods might want to stop or limit this discussion, but this is an emerging threat to Tesla's business. It's important.)

 

[zoomer0056]

I’m not sure, why advertise when nobody pays attention to them? That’s what killed newspapers and sold people on cable.

Print newspapers were overtaken by the internet. This was the birth of ubiquitous pop up ads.

 

[Usain]

cybertruck

Yes, that's part of the answer. It will be hard to regard it as a woke truck.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Yes, I think you accurately captured the state of play up until now.

But we need to pay attention to what is starting to happen. Trump has just come out against EVs and now others on the right are starting to parrot his talking points.

Up until now, EVs have not taken center stage in political discourse. But the UAW strike has forced it out into the open and EVs are becoming a political football.

(I get it that the mods might want to stop or limit this discussion, but this is an emerging threat to Tesla's business. It's important.)

Its a very hot topic for sure. They are being pressured by the government to make something they cannot sell profitably to meet what at the end of the day is an arbitrary line in the sand. The UAW demands will just make that profitability even worse. Something has got to give somewhere. It just might be time to give up on the big 3 and let them figure things out on their own.

 

[2daMoon]

Yes, I think you accurately captured the state of play up until now.

But we need to pay attention to what is starting to happen. Trump has just come out against EVs and now others on the right are starting to parrot his talking points.

Up until now, EVs have not taken center stage in political discourse. But the UAW strike has forced it out into the open and EVs are becoming a political football.

(I get it that the mods might want to stop or limit this discussion, but this is an emerging threat to Tesla's business. It's important.)

Fortunately, even gullible people aren't completely stupid. (regardless of political persuasion)

Electric will become the dominant vehicle type regardless of the rhetoric spouted and legislation passed or canceled simply because EVs cost less to own and operate, require less maintenance, are more convenient, and perform better than the other choices.

Buying into the nonsense only delays those people from the inevitability of going EV. Once they get tired of buying expensive fuel, paying for expensive service and repairs, and being unable to outperform an EV with their ICE vehicle, they will capitulate.

These temporary news bites and campaign promises are meaningless to the long-term outcome. Elon has always insisted that subsidies are not needed in order to win. As Tony Seba has demonstrated with historical examples of disruptive transition, there is not much that can be done to stop a good idea once it is rolling.

 

[Usain]

Fortunately, even gullible people aren't completely stupid. (regardless of political persuasion)

Electric will become the dominant vehicle type regardless of the rhetoric spouted and legislation passed or canceled simply because EVs cost less to own and operate, require less maintenance, are more convenient, and perform better than the other choices.

Buying into the nonsense only delays those people from the inevitability of going EV. Once they get tired of buying expensive fuel, paying for expensive service and repairs, and being unable to outperform an EV with their ICE vehicle, they will capitulate.

These temporary news bites and campaign promises are meaningless to the long-term outcome. Elon has always insisted that subsidies are not needed in order to win. As Tony Seba has demonstrated with historical examples of disruptive transition, there is not much that can be done to stop a good idea once it is rolling.

One thing we have learned in recent years is that fidelity to a political tribe causes people to act irrationally.

It may quickly become an article of faith that to be a good conservative you have to be anti-EV. This is the kind of irrational belief that can last a lifetime.