Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

other than speaking of Ballet, it does seem the Tesla team were very quiet about Optimus, which is surprising given recent job postings.

I suspect Tesla are being extra careful here, as should it become the case that Optimus Factory roll out will begin soon, then there are implications for the Tesla workforce, and even the possible adoption of UAW by employees to protect their jobs.

Quite possible the closer we get to Optimus deployment the more careful they will need to be on the messaging.

It seems all but inevitable that the Optimi will join the United Autonomous Workers union.

 

[EVMeister]

Gave up and figured I’d get the highlights here

Bet you wish you didn't bother.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Tesla will never accept selling a car at a loss. The cybertruck will absolutely be sold at a profit, and with gigacastings and 2nd gen 4680s will also be likely VERY profitable.
Elon cares about mass production, efficiency, and factories. He absolutely does not care about short production runs of products. Even when it comes to building a mars-capable rocket, he thinks of mass production.
This is likely the reason that he finds Cybertruck so hard. He doesnt want to build a few dozen a week. They are already building maybe 3 or 4 a day. He wants to build a thousand of these puppies a day.
Once the CT ramp is in full-swing, and interest rates are falling, people will forget about him being in a sombre mood on one earnings call. Nothing in the results or the call gives me any reason to sell my shares,

I think you're right about a lot of points you made in this post but I think you're reaching wrong conclusions. I agree CT will be profitable but it's not going to be very profitable. If it was going to have a 15-20% margin their plans would be to scale to 1M.

In that call, Tesla became a mature car company. They guided for slow growth until the launch of the next gen platform which is probably at least two years away so there's not a lot to support a high PE. Believers in FSD, Robotaxi and Bot already hold Tesla and those who are still skeptical are now further from being converts.

Boys, it's time to buckle down on our 9-5 jobs. At least for another year.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Whatever happened to the Next Gen platform China was supposedly going to develop? Was that just a rumor or did the idea get scrapped?

 

[mongo]

Ok, so Cybertruck is not going to be making a significant profit for maybe 18 months. That's par for the course.
Production capacity is >125k in post ramp short term.
Let's say 50k get built next year and Tesla makes 2M vehicles overall.

Average vehicle cost to build was 37,500 and GM was around 16%, so call it 45k ASP on 38k cost.
In a beyond worst case senario, Tesla sells 50k trucks at $80k but they cost $100k to make, for a billion dollar loss.
Gross margin only falls from 15.6% to 13.8%

This is the same result as Tesla making no trucks and lowering average vehicle price $900.

In terms of scale and bottom line, a $500 profit shift on 2 million vehicles is a billion dollars.

 

[Christine69420]

Bet you wish you didn't bother.

I do not get this. Are you a gambler in for a quick buck?

As a long time investor the Earnings Call is one of the most important events I can think of. Good news or bad - it does not matter - I want to know how it's going and what Tesla is thinking about the future.

If you are an investor but can't be bothered with the Earnings Call then you are in my opinion very reckless.

How else will you know when it's time to sell the house to be able to buy more shares. Or when it's time to get out of the stock? Neither of which are on the program for me after this particular call btw.

 

[FastCompany]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1714740805422715301

How did they miss the opportunity to have the Cybertruck delivery event just 3 days earlier?

Cyber Monday!

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Ok, so Cybertruck is not going to be making a significant profit for maybe 18 months. That's par for the course.
Production capacity is >125k in post ramp short term.
Let's say 50k get built next year and Tesla makes 2M vehicles overall.

Average vehicle cost to build was 37,500 and GM was around 16%, so call it 45k ASP on 38k cost.
In a beyond worst case senario, Tesla sells 50k trucks at $80k but they cost $100k to make, for a billion dollar loss.
Gross margin only falls from 15.6% to 13.8%

This is the same result as Tesla making no trucks and lowering average vehicle price $900.

In terms of scale and bottom line, a $500 profit shift on 2 million vehicles is a billion dollars.

Share price falls to less than 100 in this scenario.

 

[thx1139]

Elon warned this was happening in 2qtr earnings call. Quarter 4 will be a definite winner in my opinion.

Also for the people who are just flippers of the stock whenever Cathie Wood is selling large qty days before earnings……. it’s a good idea to sell as well, if in for the short time.

He should have lead off the call with that. We told you at the last call our numbers would be down because we were making upgrades that should cut costs longer term. Instead he leads off with FSD hype (again) and then focus on the negative of the Cybertruck rather than be excited they are launching.

 

[thx1139]

Yes, Tesla or Elon stated earlier this year that they were not charging a few to other automakers for NACS or using the superchargers, and owners would pay the same rates.

How do wages and disposable income in the 1990s compare to today? Inflation has been worse than official numbers and wages have not kept up. Many people posting here are wealthy and perhaps not aware of how tight things have become for the median income household.

My above comments.

Sunday I was at a Tesla showroom for a local owners club event. While there I offered to help walk in people with any questions. I spent about an hour with a couple that had a long list of questions. Many were directly linked to FUD on range, cost, and reliability. Not a single question or comment on politics or Elon's X posts. When I left, they were going out to test drive a Model Y.

We can all share our opinions and thoughts. I recommend getting out and talking to people and maybe help out a bit in a showroom and see how it goes. Granted, anyone that hates Elon is not likely to walk into a showroom. And while it doesn't change the situation, I think anyone deciding not to buy the safest vehicles on the planet for their family because their feelings are hurt over Elon's X posts may not be wise.

Do you think people negative on Elon would actually go to a Tesla showroom?

 

[Mengy]

TSLA currently sitting at $226 a few minutes after the open.

What's everyone's prediction for where we end the day at? Will we sink lower than this, or climb up some from here for the day?

I know it doesn't matter in the long term, but I am curious to see how the stock responds to that call last night...

 

[FreqFlyer]

With what battery pack? Built at what factory?

That is Tesla R&D's team job to figure out.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

TSLA currently sitting at $226 a few minutes after the open.

What's everyone's prediction for where we end the day at? Will we sink lower than this, or climb up some from here for the day?

I know it doesn't matter in the long term, but I am curious to see how the stock responds to that call last night...

< 220

 

[EVMeister]

I do not get this. Are you a gambler in for a quick buck?

As a long time investor the Earnings Call is one of the most important events I can think of. Good news or bad - it does not matter - I want to know how it's going and what Tesla is thinking about the future.

If you are an investor but can't be bothered with the Earnings Call then you are in my opinion very reckless.

How else will you know when it's time to sell the house to be able to buy more shares. Or when it's time to get out of the stock? Neither of which are on the program for me after this particular call btw.

Allow me to explain - it was meant as a joke. I've caught up with the thread myself (took some doing) and the insightful information is massively outweighed by (in my opinion) undue negativity. I would absolutely guarantee investors do actually pay attention to the Earnings Call(s) and discussion surrounding it, but don't take some of the negative overreactions too seriously. Long term outlook and level-headedness always important.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Opened halfway between the Lower-BB (232.82) and 200d-MA (214.20):

NB: 242.68 -10% is $218.41 to trigger the Alternate Uptick Rule. Market Makers may provide some resistance due to the large number of puts outstanding for this Friday's Monthly Options expiry.

 

[Krugerrand]

The overall economy is doing pretty damn well already, even with "high" rates. Other manufacturers are doing quite well, at a higher average price. So no, the issue is tesla specific.

To be honest the mood in the call yesterday was the most somber ive seen yet, almost like "we know we have made big mistakes and they're slowly unraveling on our main business, but we can't say it out loud".

What? Did you even look at the FINANCIALS? Do you understand positive free cash flow? Do you understand almost 18% gross margins, reducing vehicle cost by $2000, continued business growth?

And some of you talking about Cybertruck not being profitable and being a loss leader. Are you for real!?

What is wrong with people?

 

[FreqFlyer]

Whatever happened to the Next Gen platform China was supposedly going to develop? Was that just a rumor or did the idea get scrapped?

Probably working in concert with the US R&D team . Just like China took lead on Highland yet, the US team had input on it too. Why we have been seeing Highland prototypes on the road for the last 8 months.

Would make sense the Berlin R&D team will have input on Gen 2 also.

 

[Krugerrand]

This is exactly my take. Ford makes nearly a million F-150s, plus all the Rams and Tundras out there. Trucks are a huge market. Yet Tesla has decided not to pursue that market? That tells me it's not worth trying to pursue. Wish they had done a traditional truck, it would have been on the market over a year ago and it would have been kicking ass on performance/value.

Feel free to post the quote where Tesla said they decided not to pursue that market. I’ll wait.

And also feel free not to make stuff up about a different truck model.

 

[thx1139]

Kind of in line with what Elon has been predicting for a long time: H2 of 2024 is the earliest he sees improvement in the economy. Grain of salt, but seems plausible if the interest rates were to stay flat for the next couple of months and inflation cools.

Describe this improved economy? Job reports start booming? Inflation below 3%? Interest rates below 3%? Wages growing faster than Inflation?

Speaking of inflation we are about to complete a year when what Tesla cars have dropped in price like what more than 20%? This also has caused other car makers to cut EV prices? Sure EVs arent the majority yet, but they should have some effect especially if the leader put in time and money educating populace rather than allowing petroleum companies and traditional OEMs paying for media to spread EV FUD.

 

[betstarship]

Wow

Oil Rises as Hospital Blast Ratchets Up Middle East Tensions

(Bloomberg) -- Oil rose after Iran called for an embargo against Israel by Muslim countries, following a deadly explosion at a Gaza hospital that raised the risk of wider hostilities in the Middle East.Most Read from BloombergRinggit Falls to 25-Year Low, the Worst Performer in Asia After Yen...

finance.yahoo.com

Even more wow from the day before, how are we not talking about this?

Wall Street suddenly swoons on mixed earnings and a sharp jump in the oil price overnight after the Gaza hospital explosion

The S&P 500 was 0.8% lower in midday trading. The Dow was down 171 points, or 0.5%, as of 11 a.m. ET, and the Nasdaq composite was 1% lower.

fortune.com