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It's not the first time I see posts on Electrek that are very close to posts in the forum. And unless I missed something, Thailand is not a huge subject at the moment. So I believe your post is the source of this article and you should get some recognition. So I want to say, congrats! your post made it to Electrek!
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Thanks. Probably just a coincidence. Just trying to bring some interesting content to the forum so we can learn from each other.
 
Can we start the "Cybertruck will be the margin leader vehicle once ramped" hype? 😃
We often hear that legacy auto gets its highest margins for trucks. This will probably be true for Tesla as well. A truck has higher utility and therefore demands a premium.

But Cybertruck is so radically different, there is a risk that costs can not be driven down enough to hit high margins. I don't think anyone outside Tesla really knows yet. And Tesla ain't talkin'.
 
Lets get L3 working first knowing regulatory approval for robotaxi is a long way off.

For like the 978th time...

This.
Is.
Not.
A.
Thing.


There is NO federal regulation of driving autonomy in the US.

It's all left to the states.

There are a bunch of US states that already have laws on the books about it (covering something like 1/3rd-1/2 of US population last I checked) where you can put a robotaxi on the street basically today if you have one.

No waiting for anybody to "regulatory approve" anything.


"waiting for regulatory approval" is 10000 percent not a barrier in the US to fielding a robotaxi if you have a working robotaxi

Tesla does not.

There are a (very very) few states that have stricter rules- CA most notably- which is what Cruise ran afoul of. But most do not.

In Nevada for example- where Mercedes launched the first >L2 consumer system in the US- you literally just submit a document saying "It's autonomous, TRUST ME BRO" and that's it. There's no regulator. They don't approve anything.
 
How about adding speed cameras, like every other GPS out there on the planet?

Because that means to buy a product and software from a competitor, likely MobileEye, which Tesla have broken up with long ago. If they don´t even want to afford ultrasonics... no way.

Thing is that the current cameras could see speed limits just fine (see FSD), but Tesla doesn´t bother consequently developing the EU non-FSD firmware for that instead relying on bad map data (likely from a cheap source) and their half-cooked Autopilot version for Europe (likely because they have been expecting/hoping to release FSD in Europe very soon for years 🤣).
 
For like the 978th time...

This.
Is.
Not.
A.
Thing.


There is NO federal regulation of driving autonomy in the US.

It's all left to the states.

There are a bunch of US states that already have laws on the books about it (covering something like 1/3rd-1/2 of US population last I checked) where you can put a robotaxi on the street basically today if you have one.

No waiting for anybody to "regulatory approve" anything.


"waiting for regulatory approval" is 10000 percent not a barrier in the US to fielding a robotaxi if you have a working robotaxi

Tesla does not.

There are a (very very) few states that have stricter rules- CA most notably- which is what Cruise ran afoul of. But most do not.

In Nevada for example- where Mercedes launched the first >L2 consumer system in the US- you literally just submit a document saying "It's autonomous, TRUST ME BRO" and that's it. There's no regulator. They don't approve anything.
Never said there was federal approval. I just want to be sure that when I'm using L3 and am watching a video the state trooper won't pull me over.
I've said this maybe 979 times. Screw L4/L5 for now since it's not very close anyway.

Oh by the way I heard from the grapevine a local government agency just stopped Cruise so sooner or later somebody else somewhere will want to regulate. Thats how government works from what I see. Just wait until the stupid Mercedes system causes a few crashes/death and the regulators won't be far behind.
 
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Oh by the way I heard from the grapevine a local government agency just stopped Cruise so sooner or later somebody else somewhere will want to regulate. Thats how government works from what I see

Again this varies deeply by state.

In CA this market is heavily regulated- Cruise ran into that. (Though even there they were already approved and had it yanked for in part lying to the state)

In say Nevada you just file a doc saying "it's totes a robotaxi" and it is one. Nobody regulates it, and nobody "approves" it. They just take your word for it.


Obviously if your self-certified one starts killing people there'll be some follow-up... but there's simply no such thing as "regulatory approval" in most states that have anything on the books.

They instead (again CA being a heavy exception) leave that on the RT company- if you say it's good, they'll believe you- and follow up later if you lied about it. No 'waiting' for anything up front.

In those states I mention they generally also have laws making it clear the car, not the human in the drivers seat, is the driver-- so you'd have no worries about being ticketed for say using your cell while driving- since legally you're not driving.
 
Anyone know if GM's stated Q3 revenue of $44 billion is a worldwide figure? And does anyone know how many vehicles GM produced/sold worldwide in Q3 2023? GM breaks down U.S. sales, but I can't find worldwide figures (yeah I know GM stated they ended Q3 with the largest new vehicle inventory on dealer lots since 2020), I'm just trying to get a rough estimate of vehicles produced and actually sold. A quick Google search isn't helpful, all I see are U.S. sales breakdowns.

I know the two companies aren't similar, it's like comparing apples to oranges, I'm just trying to find more granular details of GM's business. Curious how Tesla, which gets most of its revenue from vehicle sales, can have Q3 revenue of $23.4B while GM, with many more vehicles sold and much more revenue coming from parts and service has Q3 revenue of only $44B.
 
LK Machinery is introducing their 16k ton Die-casting machine either today or tomorrow (unsure of what timezone Edward Tse is in). What could a 16k ton be used for? Who do you think would make use of it?




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I'm going to have the 16 tonnes song stuck in my head all day now 🎵
 
LK Machinery is introducing their 16k ton Die-casting machine either today or tomorrow (unsure of what timezone Edward Tse is in). What could a 16k ton be used for? Who do you think would make use of it?




View attachment 985133
My question is once you go from 8T to 16T the molten secret sauce injection process has to still happen in ~2 seconds. Whatever the time is. Now, my uneducated guess is that this is getting more difficult to a extreme. Injecting 1x vs 2x of alloy at this volume and get same quality must be hard.

Any expert comments about this?
 
We often hear that legacy auto gets its highest margins for trucks. This will probably be true for Tesla as well. A truck has higher utility and therefore demands a premium.

But Cybertruck is so radically different, there is a risk that costs can not be driven down enough to hit high margins. I don't think anyone outside Tesla really knows yet. And Tesla ain't talkin'.
Well, even if they can only get to 10% margins on these that is still better than the competition's negative 100% margins. Perhaps getting SEXY margins on trucks is just a matter of time and engineering efforts.

I'm still super bullish on demand for the CT. It's hard to imagine fleet sales won't be huge. There has been a costly trend towards SUVs for police departments because larger sedans are just out of fashion. Ford alone sells 30-40k a year in the US, mostly explorers. If they can pick up a vehicle that is far more rugged, cheaper to fuel/maintain, and has better safety for officers then the higher price may be worth it.

1698241817519.png
 
Well, even if they can only get to 10% margins on these that is still better than the competition's negative 100% margins. Perhaps getting SEXY margins on trucks is just a matter of time and engineering efforts.

I'm still super bullish on demand for the CT. It's hard to imagine fleet sales won't be huge. There has been a costly trend towards SUVs for police departments because larger sedans are just out of fashion. Ford alone sells 30-40k a year in the US, mostly explorers. If they can pick up a vehicle that is far more rugged, cheaper to fuel/maintain, and has better safety for officers then the higher price may be worth it.

View attachment 985161

Costly trend towards suvs? It isn't that large sedans are out of fashion with police in the US. The crown vic was the most popular and Ford discontinued them. The Ford interceptor was too small with not enough trunk room so the only solution was the explorers which performed better and had more room for all the gear police carry.

Over the last several years there has been a supply shortage with not enough fleet vehicles available for police. A large order of Durangos was cancelled by dodge because they couldn't make enough and Ford tried to cancel their order but was forced to follow through with their contract with a large west coast dept.

Depending on the price point the demand for fleet sales will certainly exist, but it'll pale in comparison to retail orders of the CT.
 
We often hear that legacy auto gets its highest margins for trucks. This will probably be true for Tesla as well. A truck has higher utility and therefore demands a premium.

But Cybertruck is so radically different, there is a risk that costs can not be driven down enough to hit high margins. I don't think anyone outside Tesla really knows yet. And Tesla ain't talkin'.
Yes, they are talking. Just listen.
 
...


It's true that Tesla is the only one who is pricing based on market conditions ...
But, that is NOT true. If you had said, 'Tesla isthe only one that immediately posts publicly all price changes' that would have been true.
In fact, virtually all OEM's practice, other than Tesla, is to have some public and some secret discounts from normal prices that are called incentives and most such, in the US, are published in the dealer and OEM industry paper, Automotive News, with comprehensive list in the back pages that include both dealer and consumer incentives. Even there some common ones are not always shown, including inventory subsidies (i.e. Floor Plan), F&I subsidies (aka Spiffs) and others. None, repeat none change the MSRP because MSRP is, by definition meaningless (the S is Suggested). So, dealers sell above MSRP if they can, pad the quotation with largely useless dealer additions etc.

Tesla, by contrast is WYSIWYG, and acronym for full clear disclosure.

There is a notable side effect of WYSIWYG that is using some consternation mostly among the less experienced new vehicle buyers. Almost always a vehicle titled immediately loses at least 25% in initial purchase price, reflecting dealer margin of 10-15% or more, taxes, delivery fees and so on, explicitly including poorly or non-disclosed finance margins. That last generally makes more money for dealers than does the original transaction.

Tesla does none of those things. Oddly, people who notice huge cost of depreciation usually concentrate on Tesla because MASRP IS transaction price. The same people experience the same actual impact from dealer-sold vehicles, but seem not to notice so much as they do with Tesla. In large part that si the result systematic obfuscation by dealers and collaboration by OEM's own self-interest.

Many of us were spoiled for the early years when demand vastly exceeded supply and used cars sometimes were more expensive than new ones. That once happened with even early Honda Accords (I bought one after a year-long waiting list and sold it at a profit on delivery, I never actually drove it. Then BMW 3 series in late 1970's, much the same. Quite a few other examples happened, many during the COVID-19 pandemic. They are vanishingly rare now, when prices are dropping.
I'm not thrilled that my 2021 Model S Plaid is worth 40% of my purchase price, but, to be honest, I really expected it. After all they were soon to become plentiful.

Really it is painful for so many people to misunderstand the nature of auto purchase.
Last critical point: Dealers understand how psychology works so the routinely inflate trade-in value while adding the variance between wholesale retail value and that trade-in to F&I margins with dealer adds, extended warranty etc. BTW, typical dealer add for extended warranty is >100& in the US. It is always a rip-off.

So, please stop with portraying Tesla as somehow deficient in treatment. They simply do not engage in those deceptions.
Thank direct distribution for lower cost and open disclosure. We should be grateful not disdainful!
 
My question is once you go from 8T to 16T the molten secret sauce injection process has to still happen in ~2 seconds. Whatever the time is. Now, my uneducated guess is that this is getting more difficult to a extreme. Injecting 1x vs 2x of alloy at this volume and get same quality must be hard.

Any expert comments about this?
Two points of injectability? So two cauldrons of soup being dumped at the same time.
 
I see cars jumping around, disappear/re-appear, flipping vehicles. I recall this with Tesla FSD many years ago so the confidence of what is drawn on the screen is much much higher with Tesla. This is what I'd expect from fusing Vision with LIDAR data as they compete with one another over the ground truth. Let's hope they all don't release this stuff too soon (like GM) and freak people out.

Such a parallel between FSD and AI in general - everyone so eager to monetize yesterday already which is both risky and it impedes progress because human trust is required!!! Consider this... if Otis had failed to stop that falling elevator stunt at the Worlds Fair, we'd all still be using stairs today.
 
Costly trend towards suvs? It isn't that large sedans are out of fashion with police in the US. The crown vic was the most popular and Ford discontinued them. The Ford interceptor was too small with not enough trunk room so the only solution was the explorers which performed better and had more room for all the gear police carry.

Over the last several years there has been a supply shortage with not enough fleet vehicles available for police. A large order of Durangos was cancelled by dodge because they couldn't make enough and Ford tried to cancel their order but was forced to follow through with their contract with a large west coast dept.

Depending on the price point the demand for fleet sales will certainly exist, but it'll pale in comparison to retail orders of the CT.

Yeah. The car buying public didn't want those larger sedans anymore which forced these agencies to buy SUVs which have higher running costs.

Agree that it's a relatively small market, but it's just an example of how popular this thing might be.
 
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We often hear that legacy auto gets its highest margins for trucks. This will probably be true for Tesla as well. A truck has higher utility and therefore demands a premium....
This is yet another misunderstanding. Trucks are higher margin in the US because they have much less actual manufacturing cost than do their cars. The large SUV (e.g. Suburban, Navigator, Escalade) and Pickup (Sierra Denali Ultimate, F-150 Limited, RAM Limited, etc.) all have gigantic margins precisely beaus they are cheap trucks at the core, with all sorts of gimmicky additions to appear luxurious. Those SUV and Pickup models are the same underneath. In fact they're made in the same factories on the same lines. BTW that is why the UAW struck Ford Kentucky Truck Plant (F-150, Navigator, Expedition) the produces nearly all Ford US profits. 'Higher utility' is a matter of market positioning, were utility to the selling basis they'd not have so much cheap 'luxury' fitments.

Tesla does not and hopefully will never, engage in such absurd cheap tricks. The Cybertruck, just as Model S and X, have higher priced variants, but they offer clearly structured tangible benefits. Tesla does offer trim options, most superfluously wheels (that offer reduced longevity, exposure to road hazards, and sexy looks) and color options. Those do increase the price while providing no economic benefit, so Tesla is not exactly 100% innocent, but everyone who buys that, including me, knows what we've done. (Guilty of buying Ludicrous for my P85D).

Of course, the cheap basic F150, and other equivalents do provide scale and do provide huge utilitarian credibility and function. Those (just as in the EU Pocket Rocket) generate volume at minimal profit while the high trim levels cary huge profits because they are built on the cheap base. Those who've working of internal OEM cost accounting understand this well. Cheap version absorb fixed costs, high end versions generate profit at modest incremental cost, so carry the line.

We at TMC really need to understand these things to avoid falling into FUD traps.