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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I expect Elon to release his "Annual statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities" on about Feb 14th.
I don't expect any substantial changes, other than his usual charitable giving. Since he didn't have much taxes in 2023 due to not selling any TSLA shares, I expect even that giving will be lower than the peak amount donated in FY2022.
I don't expect any substantial changes, other than his usual charitable giving. Since he didn't have much taxes in 2023 due to not selling any TSLA shares, I expect even that giving will be lower than the peak amount donated in FY2022.
Now I am really losing patience because Tesla seems to start having a hard time competing in China. BYD and Huawei products are good and attracting Chinese people to buy them. The retail price of TESLA has to go under another wave of decline, and margin will go down along with it. Really regret that I only sold 1000 shares at $210 and didn't follow my plan to sell 2100 shares.
Elon gotta eat!
But seriously, if there is one set of social media users that probably already are Tesla savvy it is X users.
Will we see Elon approve any Tesla advertising on TikTok, Facebook, instagram, Google, YouTube, traditional broadcasting networks etc? Or will Elon prevent Tesla spending any money on competitors to X?
Dikkie Dik
If gets hard, use hammer
Yes, reporting +33% YoY in China in addition to record European January. Clearly a busted growth story.
This is quite interesting since Potter is showing us his floor for the stock if Tesla isn't growing sales at all this year.
With the increase in cars sold in January 2024 vs january 2023 Tesla would have to reduce sales for the rest of the year to manage no growth. I think the probability for that is low.
To be a Tesla Emotionalist and selling it all now?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Why is it you parrot TSLAQ talking points that are proven false with even the most basic search? Anybody can see that Tesla already advertises on Google, and now on Youtube too. Yet somehow, you remained uninformed... because you think you benefit by spreading misinformation? Hint: you will not.
If you are talking about climate change (if), Elon's words about it have been ambivalent for quite some time now. He recently tweeted that CC is "trajectorally" solved. He shrugged when asked about Trump words antiEV, saying that EVs are anyway inevitable. He spoke as a VIP guest at the most far-right cultural event in Italy and didn't say a word about EVs or CC. He says often that CC is bad long-term but fine short-term.
Then, on the other hand, he pushed for a carbon tax on X a few days ago!
My take is that, currently, he thinks this is granted, so it's not a challenge anymore, so it's boring. For people like Musk, boredom is the ultimate enemy, like it was for Sherlock Holmes and Moriarty. Boredom is the enemy for these super-hero types.
It's a paradox, but he's much better with his deeds than with his words, regarding climate change. Which is a unique situation, to be honest, with all the fake environmentalists out there, on both sides of the political spectrum (and mainly on the left).
As much as I understand the realpolitik of going arm in arm with his right-wing friends, I disagree with him that is helpful for the mission to "downplay" short-term effects of climate change, and take EVs for granted, and such.
Tesla mission is to "accelerate" the advent of a sustainable society, so it's time-sensitive. Even more: time is the only thing that count, if long-term this is inevitable as he thinks. Long-term we are all dead, as Keynes said.
Is there a way of ignoring post that reference people I ignore? Nice replies only.
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cliff harris
Member
I used to think that I will get the last laugh on these muppets, as in the future they will be cleaning my Tesla for minimum wage because they lost all their money shorting the stock.
But now I think my optimus will clean the car. I have no idea what those people will do now.
cliff harris
Member
The problem with the tesla economist was too much emotion. He used to basically believe everything Tesla ever promised, and extrapolated wildly from every move Tesla made. He was no different to the people who ordered multiple cybertrucks because they would rent them as robotaxis last year (or earlier...).
He had the same problem Gali from hyperchange had. Too much enthusiasm, too little critical thinking,
This is why I really valued Rob Maurer, and am sad he has mostly moved on. Him and The accountant here, are among my 'reasonable sources'. I want analysis, not cheerleading. The actual real story of Tesla is amazing enough. It does not require embellishment.
I also follow troy, gary black and emmet on X (and a bunch of others). I find that keeps me sane as someone who has > 66% of his net worth in TSLA.
I once lost, in 5 minutes, the equivalent of 4 years salary in my first job, by messing around with TSLA options. An expensive lesson, but it remains fully learned. Buy TSLA, HOLD, and re-evaluate each quarter based on the quarterly reports and your own opinion of the earnings call. Options are dangerous.
I did expect us to be at $300 now, not below $200. So I am disappointed. But the stock price seems disconnected from the company's achievements right now. I don't think it will last long. I also think a lot of trader-types have sold TSLA to buy NVDA for the short term. NVDA earnings in a few weeks.
He had the same problem Gali from hyperchange had. Too much enthusiasm, too little critical thinking,
This is why I really valued Rob Maurer, and am sad he has mostly moved on. Him and The accountant here, are among my 'reasonable sources'. I want analysis, not cheerleading. The actual real story of Tesla is amazing enough. It does not require embellishment.
I also follow troy, gary black and emmet on X (and a bunch of others). I find that keeps me sane as someone who has > 66% of his net worth in TSLA
.I once lost, in 5 minutes, the equivalent of 4 years salary in my first job, by messing around with TSLA options. An expensive lesson, but it remains fully learned. Buy TSLA, HOLD, and re-evaluate each quarter based on the quarterly reports and your own opinion of the earnings call. Options are dangerous.
I did expect us to be at $300 now, not below $200. So I am disappointed. But the stock price seems disconnected from the company's achievements right now. I don't think it will last long. I also think a lot of trader-types have sold TSLA to buy NVDA for the short term. NVDA earnings in a few weeks.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Indeed, just as Tesla's BoD also set the floor for TSLA's Market Cap with the 2018 CEO Comp. plan. IE: with Tesla annual revenue over $75B and over $12B in EBITDA, then TSLA is worth $650B MktCap.
In 2023, Tesla's actual revenue was $96.8B and EBITDA was $13.6 billion (11 operational milestones achieved of 10 required ). So, 6 yrs ago the Board said TSLA would be worth about $205 per share now (15:1 split adjusted, after Cap raises and other dilution except for Elon's).
That $650B Mkt Cap also implies $185/sh after full dilution due to Elon's stock option when executed. So it costs us only about $20/share to pay Elon for 6 years work.
How could we get any better deal than that? Haha, well Elon has to pay the company $23.33 per share to execute his options (that's cash back to us). And we're already very close to the 12 Operational Milestones ($100B annual revenue) not just the minimum 10 required by the 2018 Plan.
I tell ya, Pink bunnies everywhere are outraged. /s
Cheers!
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Now I am really losing patience because Tesla seems to start having a hard time competing in China. BYD and Huawei products are good and attracting Chinese people to buy them. The retail price of TESLA has to go under another wave of decline, and margin will go down along with it. Really regret that I only sold 1000 shares at $210 and didn't follow my plan to sell 2100 shares.
BYD massively down in January compared to December - maybe an attempt at headline grabbing by reducing price of BYD's 420 models/variants. Geely are bigger than BYD in January, but that probably includes all power types - reporting is confused.
Tesla controls pricing in China to a large degree (within their segments).
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Alex is rated #448 out of 8,697 investors on TipRanks, and he has a decent track record with TSLA. I think his 1.93M for 2024 is low, but not by much as I'm only expecting around 2.1M myself. And his price target of $225 is about where I believe TSLA will end the year at too. I have $235 with a PE of 50 at year's end, which is of course just an estimate, but it's based on my expected fundamentals and what I think the market will give TSLA for a PE by year's end.
It will be interesting to see whether the pessimists or the hyper-optimists will be more accurate by the end of 2024.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
So Potter thinks deliveries will decrease vs 2023 Q4. BTW 2.1M would be a 17% increase in volume, not 0%. Potter is a shark, just like the rest of them, preying upon low-information retail investors, trying to get them to sell their shares at a low price.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Remind me, weren't there some 'channel stuffing' issues? Might be out of parking space... Just like Ford in N.Am w. 300+ days of inventory of eF-150s.
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