Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[terranx]

Speak for yourself. I plan on living beyond the next few years.

On average, I should have another 40 years or so. I don't think we'll have any of those pipedreams within that timeframe.

 

[loquitur]

Okay, so maybe 2027 instead if you take everything at face value. And notably that passage seems to show Elon tried his hardest to make anything but the 25k car.

Also I read plenty, but I'm not in the habit of reading biographies of people who I think are extremely distasteful.

Then you probably wouldn't like the biography of Sam Bankman-Fried either (especially since
SBF's antics often put Musk to shame), though it's great writing by Michael Lewis who has a
page-turning stylistic flair in contrast to Isaacson's plodding pace...

... or perhaps the engaging, workman-like, and award-winning book about Elizabeth Holmes/
Sunny Balwani of Theranos by John Carreyou (WSJ investigative reporter and winner of both
the George Polk and Gerald Loeb awards) ... or, or, the multiple books on Trump, who many think
is even more of an execrable character than Musk, and getting worse by the day.

What wrong with a little Schadenfreude amongst us?

-- book reviews by Loquitur

 

[Mengy]

I'm not saying they won't ever exist. But in our lifetimes? Certainly not.

Why not? What are your reasons for thinking they both aren't in the near term future?

 

[Knightshade]

- I think Q4 was barely higher because Tesla is near their current line caps for Fremont / Shanghai and they seem to have slowed the ramps in Berlin / Austin.

Agreed, but that's part of the narrative of they're not ramping faster in those places because there's simply not buyers at existing prices for significantly more of the output they'd get by further ramping.

- I think the aggressive price drops are because of the high interest rates hurting auto sales demand. Plenty of demand for Teslas (and other brands too) if only people could currently afford them.

This has been debunked repeatedly with basic math though-- the monthly payment, and total cost, of a new Tesla today with high rates is much lower than when the cars cost 5 figures more but rates were low. Rates can explain only a SMALL portion of the price cuts.

The rest can only be explained by the fact if you want 500k more buyers in 2023 you need prices low enough to find those 500k buyers. That's part of why a number like 2-2.1M is far more realistic than some folks 2.4-2.5M... lowering prices to find even 250k more buyers is already challenging (assuming roughly 50k CTs as getting you to 2.1M). Growth, as Tesla themselves has told us, will be quite low in auto (by historical standards) until there's a new product at a lower price with a ton of new buyers.

Growth in energy and services/other will ideally pick up some of the slack here over the next 2 years... and CT ramp of perhaps another 200k units in 2025 will help offset what'll be entirely plateaued 3/Y growth by then.... with the 25k model finally arriving near the end of that year and auto growth ramping back to eye watering #s in the years that follow.

- Inventory is still great. Normal auto brands have 4+ months of inventory sitting, Tesla only has about a week's worth at any given time. That's not an issue, it's fantastic IMHO.

16 days per the last quarterly data, it hasn't been as low as 1 week in a while. Still much better than industry average of course- but the fact it hasn't ballooned is also tied into what you mentioned earlier about slowing any further ramp in production #s.

 

[Tony73]

I don't really care what the Y sold compared to BMW. Point is I don't think they have much room for growth which is what their valuation is based off of.

The suppoised 25k car probably won't come out until 2028 at least.

That is highly unlikely. We know they are already working on production tooling.
In the past, Tesla has often shown prototypes and then done nothing for years to move them towards production. Model x, semi, roadster and cybertruck come to mind.
That is not the case here. Next gen is way past the prototype stage. They have started installing some production tooling. Production will start in Tx next year. However the mere start of production does not move Tesla stock. Tesla has to ramp Tx and then replicate it in Mexico, Shanghai and Berlin. We are probably looking at 18 to 24 months after the initial start of production in Tx before all four (possibly more) are fully ramped. So mid to end of 2027 at the earliest for the next gen to be fully ramped and drive Tesla to around 8 million vehicles in annual sales.

 

[Singuy]

Sure, and then what happened? Plot twist, the virus very much did not go away, like everyone credible was actually saying at the time. But he only believed data that was beneficial to his financial outlook.


Which he never actually delivered. What he did deliver very late into the game were a bunch of bipap machines which were useless. Because he's too arrogant to let actual experts advise him


I mean really, just go through his twitter. He also spouted some nonsense on Rogan's show recently about how ventilators actually killed patients and that the "treatment was worse than the disease".



Literally today on twitter itself: https://nitter.unixfox.eu/elonmusk#:~:text=@robbystarbuck-,17h,-Yaeli had depression


You're the one who's saying Musk cares more about humanity than profit motive. If that's the case, he should be held to a higher standard.




Drinking water to Detroit - I'll give you that one. Trying to help rescue kids trapped in a cave: Never had a real plan. Labeled those who explained his plans were not feasible as pedophiles. Discussed the ventilators above.

China is literally the country that pollutes the most(not most per capita). So Musk building a car factory there is problematic because the government has a beef with some people? Our government kills innocent people everyday with our weapons, way more than China have ever done..but it's not a human right violation because it's for freedom am I right?

 

[terranx]

Why not? What are your reasons for thinking they both aren't in the near term future?

Because the tech to do so just isn't there. Hardware is the easy part. The software is the trick, and Tesla has not shown itself to be particularly adept there (autopilot / FSD are barely better than when they first showed up, optimus is still decades behind competitors and is still only remote control right now)

 

[2daMoon]

That goes both ways. You don't really gain unless you sell when it is higher than you bought. Also optional.

Good, I see progress in your learning how it works.

Next lesson, when making statements about how much money someone has lost investing in Tesla, you really should find those who have already sold low to be your audience.

Talking about loss to long-term investors who have not sold is a lot like spitting into the wind.

HODL

 

[terranx]

China is literally the country that pollutes the most(not most per capita). So Musk building a car factory there is problematic because the government has a beef with some people? Our government kills innocent people everyday with our weapons, way more than China have ever done..but it's not a human right violation because it's for freedom am I right?

Our government has done a lot of bad things, you'll never hear me disagree with that. But I don't think our government is currently actively practicing genocide.

 

[terranx]

That is highly unlikely. We know they are already working on production tooling.
In the past, Tesla has often shown prototypes and then done nothing for years to move them towards production. Model x, semi, roadster and cybertruck come to mind.
That is not the case here. Next gen is way past the prototype stage. They have started installing some production tooling. Production will start in Tx next year. However the mere start of production does not move Tesla stock. Tesla has to ramp Tx and then replicate it in Mexico, Shanghai and Berlin. We are probably looking at 18 to 24 months after the initial start of production in Tx before all four (possibly more) are fully ramped. So end of 2027 at the earliest.

If you're saying end of 2027 at the earliest and I'm saying 2028... don't we basically agree?

 

[Knightshade]

If you're saying end of 2027 at the earliest and I'm saying 2028... don't we basically agree?

Not remotely, no.

He's saying production start late 2025, and fully ramped by 2027.

You're saying we won't see the 25k car at all until 2028 at least.

 

[2daMoon]

Hey, I've got plenty of money today. It just wasn't made with Tesla because I was not in the position to do so. So unless you want to get me that time machine, it's just not relevant. If you want to make money now instead of 10 years ago, Tesla is not the way to go.

Lesson #2

The time to invest is when two conditions arise simultaneously:

1. you have money
2. the SP is low

More so when people (like you) are fearful of owning TSLA, that is very likely to be the best possible time to be greedy and purchase the stock.
(paraphrasing some lackluster investor from the dark ages)

 

[terranx]

Not remotely, no.

He's saying production start late 2025, and fully ramped by 2027.

You're saying we won't see the 25k car at all until 2028 at least.

Fair enough. I do think 2025 is too optimistic. I could see them pulling a model 3 and cybertruck situation where they release a handful of cars in early 2027 to say they're in production, but won't see real capacity until later.

 

[Mengy]

Tesla has not shown itself to be particularly adept there (autopilot / FSD are barely better than when they first showed up, optimus is still decades behind competitors and is still only remote control right now)

How can you say FSD v12 is barely better than it was a few years ago? And how can you say Optimus is DECADES behind anyone else?!?!?

Okay, I see you are either ignorant or letting emotions blind your judgement. I'm not sure which it is, but I see there's no point in discussing things further with you currently.

Good luck!

 

[terranx]

Lesson #2

The time to invest is when two conditions arise simultaneously:

1. you have money
2. the SP is low

More so when people (like you) are fearful of owning TSLA, that is very likely to be the best possible time to be greedy and purchase the stock.
(paraphrasing some lackluster investor from the dark ages)

Cool, keep teaching me.

The stock price isn't low enough to justify buying today. They've still got a long way to go down before it's worth the risk

 

[terranx]

How can you say FSD v12 is barely better than it was a few years ago? And how can you say Optimus is DECADES behind anyone else?!?!?

Okay, I see you are either ignorant or letting emotions blind your judgement. I'm not sure which it is, but I see there's no point in discussing things further with you currently.

Good luck!

FSD v12 is still a level 2 system that makes assinine decisions at unpredictable times.

Optimus is only doing today what Boston Scientific and Carnegie Mellon were doing ages ago. And it's remote control. As I said, the software is the difficult part there. As it exists today it could have some interesting applications in niche areas (robots instead of humans to explore and manage inhabitable areas... think Fukushima, bomb squads, that sort of thing). But to be an autonomous iRobot style robot, that's so far into the future that none of us are going to be alive to see it.

 

[Tony73]

Nvidia is a good company but their TAM is like 400B with 250-300B of that being lower margin inference chips and memory. Tesla has multiple trillion dollar TAM from car sales to EV charging to energy infrastructure. Yes margins are lower, but Nvidia will not enjoy 80% margin forever as competitors are coming in since their software moat is dying as big players are looking for alternatives due to their price gouging practices.

50+% gross margins are par for the course for advanced semiconductors.

 

[GhostSkater]

I take back that Tesla hasn't improve Model S/X charging curve

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754889044092149868

 

[SOULPEDL]

When has mind-blowing tech ever moved a stock ?

Agree. What about a notable increase in FSD take rate when V12 releases? That's a $$$ number, pure software, pure margin increases.
On Valentines Day?

 

[Tony73]

If you're saying end of 2027 at the earliest and I'm saying 2028... don't we basically agree?

You were referring to the start of production which I think is next year. I then expand on to say the mere start of production will not be much of a catalyst for the stock and what matters is fully ramped production on all continents which will be 2027