Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thx1139]

Those stock are great-but... There is a possibility that they could all take a not insignificant straight leg down at any time now. The run up has been incredible..

Sure they could, lets not act like TSLA cant as well. The point is we feel the risk vs reward is substantially higher now with TSLA. Megapacks will do well, but I honestly dont see how people can believe the target dates for sub $30K model. I base that on the non launch of the Semi. I am sorry I cant agree Semi is launched when it only is sold 2 one customer. As soon as I see more customers taking delivery I will consider it launched, not a joint test. We all bought into Cybertruck launching earlier then it did even though we all also knew that there was no place to build it.

I used to fall for the dates my self. I have 2 cars with FSD bought and paid for. Now I havent tried V12 yet, but I simply don't think real FSD is anywhere near soon. Just to many edge cases I see FSD failing all the time and cant have FSD with common edge cases failing. Like how FSD deals with snowy conditions like FSD deals with high pedestrian situations. Both of which I experienced in the last month.

So it all comes down to risk vs reward. Simply dont see any reason that over next 2 years some surprise causing TSLA to rapidly rise. Sorry that people only want to see praise of TSLA. Just seems rather short and close minded.

 

[GhostSkater]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1742225368621203740

https://twitter.com/x/status/1755316992557387802

 

[hobbes]

Article on Giga Berlin quoting the plant manager, André Thierig:
- They did actually do 6000 cars per week just before the shutdown (first official confirmation)
- Will restart next Monday, supply chain ok again.

Tesla nimmt Produktion in Grünheide am 12. Februar wieder auf

Der US-Elektroautobauer Tesla kann ab dem 12. Februar in der Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg in Grünheide die Produktion wieder aufnehmen, nachdem sie wegen Huthi-Angriffen auf Frachter im Roten Meer Ende Januar gestoppt werden musste. Das kündigte Werkleiter André Thierig im „Tagesspiegel“...

www-oldenburger--onlinezeitung-de.translate.goog

 

[MC3OZ]

So, analyses on Oil Companies, world-wide, show that they make, in profits, roughly $3B a day. Um. A bit of spare change to throw some FUD might do something. And then there's traditional auto companies. One might think that individuals-who-are-not-dumb-as-rocks in those companies might realize what a steamroller Tesla was becoming. And would Do Something to, well, slow down the steamroller. It's not just me who've been saying things like this: Sandy Munroe, for one, has pointed this out, too.

While it has been a long battle against FUD, it will not last forever.

Electric 2-wheeled transport is currently displacing 1% of annual global oil demand., And this is a form of vehicle production and deployment that can scale rapidly... Many developing countries can build factories to produce this type of vehicle, and it is even easier for China, India, Vietnam and Mexico.

There are some very competitive Chinese EVs in the 20K-25K price range, a Korea car company is currently adapting a small ICE model for sales as an EV for around 20K. it is also reasonable to assume India, Vietnam and Mexico will eventually make EVs in this price bracket.

I don't think this is a threat to the Tesla Gen3 compact because that is intended to be a higher quality "Robotaxi capable" car.

Grid scale batteries are starting to displace diesel and gas peaking generation worldwide.

Battery R&D is looking under every rock for improvements, and there are a lot of rocks.

So the threat to Oil companies and ICE car companies extends well beyond Tesla.

Currently the threats for Tesla are slow to scale additional capacity:-

• Energy storage batteries
• Cybertruck
• Semi
• Model Y

Gen3 is flying under the radar due to the speed at which increase vehicle production could occur, the quality of the vehicle and the value-for-money proposition and the possible multiplier of Robotaxi operation.

IMO FUD isn't that effective because it isn;t well researched and well informed, those attempting to post FUD tend to demonstrate their ignorance early in the debate.

I don't know why posters keep engaging with a troll when some of the statements the troll is making simply indicate how little the troll knows about Tesla.

The emoji I would like to see added is:- "search for improved knowledge".

 

[lafrisbee]

Not just Cost of Goods Sold (COGS), R&D and SG&A per vehicle also dropped in 2023.

I did some rough math and calculated that R&D and SG&A per vehicle, dropped about $300 per vehicle in 2023.
This does not impact Gross Profit but does help Operating Profit.
For 2024, a drop in these cost per vehicle may be more difficult due to the slower anticipated sales growth (vs 2023).
I expect to see a tightening of the belt in 2024 for SG&A to drive savings . . . not the toilet paper rationing program but some effort.
Would not be surprised to see an Elon internal email stating "we're spending to much money on x,y,z".

I'd poop myself if you got the name of the $25 k Tesla right!

 

[cliff harris]

Its fair to be disappointed with the TSLA stock the last few years. Let be honest, when we were at $400 nobody expected us to be here. None of expected twitter to get involved, or elon to have to sell so many. None of us expected cybertruck to take this long, or FSD. We all thought semi would be in mass production by now.

But you know what? This happens all the time. Prediction is hard.

Nobody expected in 2024 for Apple to still not have their car released. Nobody thought the vision pro would be that expensive, or initial production so low. Everyone thought that yup, even if you COULD re-use a falcon 9 booster, it wouldn't be for a whole 10 re-launches. Beyond that was mad. Nobody thought it would take THIS long for toyota to have an EV. Nobody thought Tesla would start making humanoid robots...

The prediction business is a nightmare. But it goes both ways. I would NEVER have thought the Y would outsell the 3. I would never have thought optimus would make progress so fast. I never thought a car as pricey as the Y would be the global best seller.

Years ago, when I bought my largest TSLA stake, I was betting on the Tesla semi, the roadster and the cybertruck. This is not what I got.
I got a (late) cybertruck, finally some decent FSD progress, an impressive ramp of megapacks, Dojo and optimus.

On balance, I am happy with the deal. Roadster was niche anyway, and semi will be great, but wall st will ignore it anyway. In the medium to long term, FSD and optimus may become a very big deal. Model 2 is always around the corner. Sure, I could sell all my TSLA and gamble on tech stocks for the next six months and re-evaluate. But elon is elon. You never know whats coming next. For all we know the next tweet is a video of the Tesla Van, the Tesla boat, the Tesla plane. I wouldn't rule anything out with this company. Thats half the fun .

 

[bpjod]

A reminder for those who’ve been around awhile (and a tip for those new here): TSLA often goes down on bad news, down on good news, and skyrockets upward on apparently no news at all.

I for one would not be comfortable parking my money elsewhere waiting for good news about Tesla as a reason to get back in. 2024 is looking like a nothing new year. Draw your own conclusions.

 

[cliff harris]

Cybertruck software update. Maybe that charging curve is about to improve?

 

[mongo]

Cybertruck software update. Maybe that charging curve is about to improve?
View attachment 1016322

Maybe... but I read this as not warming the pack to handle a 250kW rate if you are headed to a 150kW charger.

 

[Singuy]

Not just Cost of Goods Sold (COGS), R&D and SG&A per vehicle also dropped in 2023.

I did some rough math and calculated that R&D and SG&A per vehicle, dropped about $300 per vehicle in 2023.
This does not impact Gross Profit but does help Operating Profit.
For 2024, a drop in these cost per vehicle may be more difficult due to the slower anticipated sales growth (vs 2023).
I expect to see a tightening of the belt in 2024 for SG&A to drive savings . . . not the toilet paper rationing program but some effort.
Would not be surprised to see an Elon internal email stating "we're spending to much money on x,y,z".

Also Tesla does this lay off spree of ~10% every year.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Sure they could, lets not act like TSLA cant as well. The point is we feel the risk vs reward is substantially higher now with TSLA. Megapacks will do well, but I honestly dont see how people can believe the target dates for sub $30K model. I base that on the non launch of the Semi. I am sorry I cant agree Semi is launched when it only is sold 2 one customer. As soon as I see more customers taking delivery I will consider it launched, not a joint test. We all bought into Cybertruck launching earlier then it did even though we all also knew that there was no place to build it.

I used to fall for the dates my self. I have 2 cars with FSD bought and paid for. Now I havent tried V12 yet, but I simply don't think real FSD is anywhere near soon. Just to many edge cases I see FSD failing all the time and cant have FSD with common edge cases failing. Like how FSD deals with snowy conditions like FSD deals with high pedestrian situations. Both of which I experienced in the last month.

So it all comes down to risk vs reward. Simply dont see any reason that over next 2 years some surprise causing TSLA to rapidly rise. Sorry that people only want to see praise of TSLA. Just seems rather short and close minded.

I've said it before but I think it's ok to repeat.

Many successful stocks and funds see an influx of money AFTER they've gone up and a loss/sell-off AFTER they've gone down. Truly a buy high, sell low.

Reportedly (I haven't asked them all, so fair to doubt truth of this), Peter Lynch's Magellan fund investors lost money even while the fund had great performance overall.

FUD/hype works. I think being able to tell that

1. A lot of the anti-Tesla/anti-Elon hype isn't based on fair reporting and misses out important context
2. Big Oil money > Lobbyists>Journalists>Politicians & other shills
3. Plenty of other anti-Elon motivated people. Various industries and other tribal reasons.
4. Toyota fakes safety/crash tests for 30 years - near silence. Elon sneezes and the whole world hears dozens of graphic versions of it
5. GM, Ford, Kia, Porsche & others petition NHTSA not to change font sizes. NHTSA agrees. Tesla just do Over The Air update to change them. Who gets the criticism and headlines?
6. Only Tesla seems to have such an amazing level of innovation built into it over multiple businesses. Startup nursery - any of which could result in huge returns - "not sure which, not sure when" as Vera Lynn didn't sing.

Most of the Magellan Fund's Investors Lost Money

Investors, new and old, will likely come across the words of investing legend Peter Lynch, former manager of the Fidelity Magellan Fund during its glory years. Many look to him for advice, as he was the man who took the Magellan Fund from a multi-million dollar mutual fund to a multi-billion...

www.alphawealthfunds.com

How Emotional Reactions Affected Investing Success

Truthfully, the losses can be attributed to inexperienced investors. Many times, people would get excited and buy-in at times of growth and panic at a time of decline. Rather than waiting it out, investors would allow their emotions to guide them. People would jump ship and sell, only to find themselves at a loss since they bought in high and sold low when a less emotional response would have made them money.

Many investing decisions have been made in similar situations. Some factors that negatively influence investors to include the news, “performance chasing,” and impulsivity.

The news cycle can give investors a false sense of knowledge. In the case of the Magellan Fund, news of its success led investors to leap into the opportunity. Without enough research, investors took the idea of prospective fast earnings and ran with it. Similarly, when news of lower performances hit, this led to many people pulling out, thinking they would lose everything. Especially with stock sensationalism, the media cycle can compel some investors to make bad choices with their money.

This contributes to performance chasing, in which investors focus on “in-the-moment” high-performing investments

Plenty more search results, but presumably based on same original story/research (which might be untrue). Whatever the truth, it illustrates the point that "performance chasing" probably is a vice to avoid.

Council Post: How Investors Are Costing Themselves Money

The stock market may fluctuate, but your investment objectives shouldn't.

www.forbes.com

Edit: Ark probably another example of this.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

we honestly don't know WHEN it will take off.

Yes we do. Not the date but we know the circumstance. When Elon gets his new compensation package. I've been saying for a year, Elon doesn't care about the share price because the share price no longer is relevant for the mission. I was completely wrong. Elon cares about the share price and since he doesn't have a package he's fine with it staying low.

This is what is going to happen: At some point the share price will start trending up again (probably for 4-6 months), a new comp package will be announced and it will continue trending up. Then, probably 4-6 months after new comp announced BOOM, massive SP inflation for a couple of years.

Bookmark it. Let's see how wrong I am.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm really interested in the 1c/kWh.

So Tesla gets a cut of the charging revenue? Where did you find that?

This is the Commercial Charging | Tesla announced back in Sep 2023. Annual Billing for partners @ 1 cent/KWh of energy they delivered over the year.

The offer was written up in more detail here:
Tesla adds option for 3rd party billing at Destination Chargers in latest software update | Drive Tesla Canada (2023-09-08)

Hilton Hotels was the 1st large commerical partner:
Hilton to Install Up to 20,000 Tesla Universal Wall Connectors at 2,000 Hotels | Hilton News (2023-09-08)

I read that as Tesla providing the service for 1c/kWh fee, which doesn't necessarily mean it is coming from the charging revenue. Granted, it has to come from somewhere. If the Partner is able to set their own rates it could be added in and may not impact their revenue.

For detalils, see the webpage on Commercial Charging | Tesla

It was mentioned here by somebody who knew somebody who was looking into being a host...

This is the main reason I don't waste time on Reddit...

 

[heltok]

I like Elon and think he is great for the company. But he does not have a "make tsla moon" button he is waiting on his $55B check before he will push. Tesla is a huge company with many talented people working hard improving many aspects of their business. They are building new factories, designing new products and hiring like crazy for future products. We live in a challenging time with high interest rates and unrest around the world, lots of businesses are hurting. That Tesla still managed to grow their fleet ~50% last year was a huge feat.

There is so much noise right now, from people with bad intensions and gullible people listening to them. Imo look at the zoomed out numbers and remember that the processes that made them happen are still in play.

If you see something major actually changing in their processes then imo discuss that. Is Model 3 Highland a dud? Are FSD releases regressing? Is BYD running faster? Are VW gaining market share? Etc. Big news. Right now there is too much focus on the noise.

 

[Usain]

This is the Commercial Charging | Tesla announced back in Sep 2023. Annual Billing for partners @ 1 cent/KWh of energy they delivered over the year.

The offer was written up in more detail here:
Tesla adds option for 3rd party billing at Destination Chargers in latest software update | Drive Tesla Canada (2023-09-08)

Hilton Hotels was the 1st large commerical partner:
Hilton to Install Up to 20,000 Tesla Universal Wall Connectors at 2,000 Hotels | Hilton News (2023-09-08)


For detalils, see the webpage on Commercial Charging | Tesla


This is the main reason I don't waste time on Reddit...

Thanks for all the links, but unless I messed something in skimming them all, I never saw the 1 cent/KWh.

I really hope it's true. But I don't see that on anything official. Did I just miss it?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon said it would have about 70 to 75% shared parts with the Model 3. Some time after release, Elon stated it ended up being around 40% I don't have video links to share evidence of this.

I've never seen that 40% claim. It would be extraordinary to switch that many parts on such a low time frame. I do know that Elon said they bought the Lotus chassis for the OG Roadster, but ended up changing almost all the parts because EV needs are different. Well, the Model 3 and Model T are both EVs.

Are you sure you want to trust you memory on this? Humans didn't evolve to remember that type of detail... that's why God invented Google...

Tesla Model Y To Share ~76% Of Parts With Model 3, Be Built At Fremont | cleantechnica.com (2019-01-31)

 

[heltok]

Joe Justice on what he thinks is the most valuable part of Tesla: TeslaOne:

 

[MC3OZ]

Tesla Model Y To Share ~76% Of Parts With Model 3, Be Built At Fremont | cleantechnica.com (2019-01-31)

This may vary depending on when it is measured.

Looking at the Joe Justice video there are 10,000 parts in the car many of which can change on any given day.

So for starters a good comparison is a Model 3 and a Model Y built at the same factory on the same day.

Also Model Y parts may have started 76% in common with Model 3 then slowly diverged as some parts may have been specifically optimised for the Model Y.

We are guessing, but IMO same factory on the same day at least 60% shared parts, but maybe it was 40% at some point in time.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Actually killing somebody isn't exactly good for the Demon side if a bunch of angels show up and take the soul to heaven; the idea is to corrupt the souls, starting off slow and working one's way up.

This is how I imagine TE's patreon DMs... inviting them into your house, what a self-inflicted wound. If he's shorting now, he won't just lose all his money, he'll be on the hook for unlimited losses when any of 3 new products hit it big: Model 2, Teslabot, FSD. Sad to watch, but inevitable. I hope his family is protected.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Joe Justice on what he thinks is the most valuable part of Tesla: TeslaOne:

Dammmm, that was impressive. Thanks for sharing.