That was just an example of an announcement that I saw today.
NVidia's arch-enemy AMD has a complete line of H100 competitors available now: https://www.amd.com/en/products/accelerators/instinct/mi300.html
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
NVidia's arch-enemy AMD has a complete line of H100 competitors available now: https://www.amd.com/en/products/accelerators/instinct/mi300.html
Agree with your post apart from the AI bubble part.
Emerging transformative technologies tend to induce bubbles in financial markets. The technology transformation is still real and the companies leading it will still be ernomously successful. We should be careful about tarring every AI company with the bubble label.
We are in the final stages of an EV bubble. Most new EV companies will fail in the next few years. The EV transformation is still real and the winners like TSLA/BYD are real.
NVDA’s q4 annualized PE is 37.5. It’s cheaper than TSLA and has higher growth right now.
AI “bubble” or not, it’s hard to argue with the financials. NVDA’s AI future is happening now.
*In the context of cash on hand*
Sales growth relies on manufacturing which Nvidia outsources and Tesla does in-house.
For Tesla to double production requires doubling factory count (roughly) at great internal expense.
For Nvidia to double production requires buying twice as many chips from TMSC at a similar to current price. No cash expense incurred (unless TMSC pushes for it).
Then there are manufacturing overhead/ carrying costs. Tesla has to cover raw goods, part inventory, work in progress, factory upkeep, worker headcount, finished goods...
Nvidia doesn't. They have outsourced chip production and outsourced board assembly. Sure, they pay out some potential profit, but at 70%+ gross margin, that's not significant. It also means that finished goods cost is a much lower percentage of sales. In OEM embedded applications, the chip is the finished good (versus Jetson or H100).
Similar to Coke vs Nike.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Elon addressed the buybacks issue on Twitter in reply to a suggestion from Uncle Leo:
Elon Musk on Twitter: "@SeagerKershaw @KoguanLeo @hiromichimizuno This is up to the Tesla board" / Twitter (Nov 14, 2022)
Right now, the Tesla Board faces the potential of a massive payout in the illegitimate, anti-shareholder Delaware debacle. The Board is unlikely to use cash for buybacks until that is resolved (which will most likely not occur before Jan 2025 due to the appeals process).
Further, whatever the resolution of this past case, the Board should expect to deal with futher lawsuits because that is the way this court has set up its judgement. Even moving Tesla's domicile out of Delaware is likely to be contested in that same court.
TL;dr Buybacks are off the table
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The Long View
One of the reasons I was an attractive catch for Wall St investment firms in the 1980s was, together with other attributes, my fluency in Japanese - a rarity back then.
My very last tripever so far to Japan was, however, in December, 1989. The unstoppable Japanese stock market was a Must Have for any global investment firm; I was to find new companies to buy and new reasons for adding to existing positions.
I failed. I came back absolutely empty-handed and worse, empty-idea’d.
My bosses were…treading carefully and trying to use polite language here…very upset. “The market is at an all-time high and you know the companies!” Even - or possibly especially - my father, who even then was staying abreast of my work, was noticeably disappointed. He had pioneered foreign investment in that country, taking personal as well as professional stakes in its then microscopically small market more than three decades earlier - a mere dozen years after trying to kill and not be killed by the Japanese.
I stuck to my guns and refused to budge, other than taking a meaninglessly small position in a civil engineering / infrastructure operation. Fortunately for my paycheck, my energetic actions in Brazil, Mexico and Chile kept their bottomlines and my bottom in good shape.
With the ¥/$ around 150, the Nikkei reached its all-time high the week after I left Tokyo: December 30, 1989. For decades, as the rest of the world screamed higher, Tokyo has languished.
The Yen still - rather, once again - is at 150 and yesterday, after 35 years and 2 1/2 months, the Nikkei hit a new high. I, as you all know, long since have moved on - and out.
The lesson of that reminiscence is a small but powerful one: Take the long view, always. Dad was right about Japan. So was I. If something is improperly valued, recognize it as such and act accordingly:
Buy. Sell. Hold. Avoid. Do not trade.
One of the reasons I was an attractive catch for Wall St investment firms in the 1980s was, together with other attributes, my fluency in Japanese - a rarity back then.
My very last trip
I failed. I came back absolutely empty-handed and worse, empty-idea’d.
My bosses were…treading carefully and trying to use polite language here…very upset. “The market is at an all-time high and you know the companies!” Even - or possibly especially - my father, who even then was staying abreast of my work, was noticeably disappointed. He had pioneered foreign investment in that country, taking personal as well as professional stakes in its then microscopically small market more than three decades earlier - a mere dozen years after trying to kill and not be killed by the Japanese.
I stuck to my guns and refused to budge, other than taking a meaninglessly small position in a civil engineering / infrastructure operation. Fortunately for my paycheck, my energetic actions in Brazil, Mexico and Chile kept their bottomlines and my bottom in good shape.
With the ¥/$ around 150, the Nikkei reached its all-time high the week after I left Tokyo: December 30, 1989. For decades, as the rest of the world screamed higher, Tokyo has languished.
The Yen still - rather, once again - is at 150 and yesterday, after 35 years and 2 1/2 months, the Nikkei hit a new high. I, as you all know, long since have moved on - and out.
The lesson of that reminiscence is a small but powerful one: Take the long view, always. Dad was right about Japan. So was I. If something is improperly valued, recognize it as such and act accordingly:
Buy. Sell. Hold. Avoid. Do not trade.
As an example: Since a couple of versions, Tensorflow doesn't support CUDA on Windows anymore. If you still want to use the latest Tensorflow on your Windows machine, you have to run it in the Linux subsystem on Windows.
Nvidia may be the investment story of the day, but I feel many of their customers are ready to switch to a competitor. One of them may be Tesla. Note that 2024 is the year that Dojo would increase massively in scale.
A year ago, AMD estimated that the AI accelerator would grow from $30B in 2023 to $150B in 2027. They recently changed that to $400B in 2027, with 70% CAGR. See
https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-dethrones-tesla-wall-streets-most-traded-stock-2024-02-20/
Is it just me or is not being the most traded stock on wall street a good thing for Tesla?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Agreed. That's our 'information advantage'. Meanwhile, Wall-E thinks TSLA is a EV play...
| # | Company | Symbol | Portfolio% | Price | Chg | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Microsoft Corp | MSFT | 7.15% | 
| 8.47 | (2.11%) |
| 2 | Apple Inc. | AAPL | 6.34% |
| 1.10 | (0.60%) |
| 3 | Nvidia Corp | NVDA | 4.10% |
| 98.83 | (14.65%) |
| 4 | Amazon.com Inc | AMZN | 3.63% |
| 3.60 | (2.14%) |
| 5 | Meta Platforms, Inc. Class A | META | 2.50% |
| 15.40 | (3.29%) |
| 6 | Alphabet Inc. Class A | GOOGL | 2.00% |
| 1.71 | (1.20%) |
| 7 | Berkshire Hathaway Class B | BRK.B | 1.77% |
| 3.29 | (0.80%) |
| 8 | Alphabet Inc. Class C | GOOG | 1.69% |
| 1.68 | (1.17%) |
| 9 | Eli Lilly & Co. | LLY | 1.44% |
| 19.85 | (2.66%) |
| 10 | Broadcom Inc. | AVGO | 1.29% |
| 65.26 | (5.32%) |
| 11 | Tesla, Inc. | TSLA | 1.28% | 
| -0.45 | (-0.23%) |
| 12 | Jpmorgan Chase & Co. | JPM | 1.24% |
| 1.38 | (0.77%) |
Hedgies discount Tesla AI because they feel confident it can be stopped with hostile government regulation, just like they're trying to do by nerfing FSD (or trying to outright ban it like Dan O'Clown would do).
No matter. The future is coming, regardless of how much the luddites protest.
Cheers to the Longs!
Source?
Edit: found this Tesla to spend $500M to bring its Dojo supercomputer project to Buffalo factory | TechCrunch
When will Tesla spends muti billions of dollars per year on hardware to train ML models (not inference)? Your guess.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Donkey strikes again
[Weekly reminder on RIVN]
Mind you, this IS a short week of trading...
Rivian Automotive Inc RIVN:NASDAQ
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
9 weeks out of 10, it doesn't matter what happens on Wall St, it matters what happens in Chicago... (TSLA options trade on the CBOE - 'the tail that wags the dog').
Does rotoREUTERS mention in their article whether NVDA is also now the most heavily bet on with Options?
Haha, Nvidia and AMD are not exactly arch enemy. I mean Jenson is related to Lisa Su, both CEOs are family. But as for direct competitors, both are definitely frien-emies. Nvidia DGX used to use AMD CPUs which are inside of Tesla Nvidia super computers today.
What do you mean when? Musk tweeted that the 500M spent on Dojo is a small fraction of what they spend and are still spending on Nvidia hardware. They are also buying AMD hardware as well.
My mind is still in the Nvidia-ATI era
Edit: Former AMD investor here. From the ATI takeover era.
Text of link and URL aren't the same. Text is @Tesla_AI which a pic that does does not specify Dojo vs 3rd parties in total compute for Tesla AI training. But URL points to @toptechinv (?) who states the 100 exaflops would be Dojo only. I'd prefer a more reliable sources on the share of compute forecast that Tesla plan to get from Dojo.
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