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I disagreed because this is a quite oversimplified and one-dimensional view.

Toyota had huge success with Lexus, introduced in the US and developed for the US primarily, launched in ~1987 almost instantly being best selling luxury vehicle in US, the going global. That followed the introduction of Camry, also designed for the center of the US sedan market.

Toyota through the 1970's and1980's grow rapidly in many global markets with a plethora of models.
As fro the Prius, it was not the product fo desperation but an exploration for the future, built in part from the ashes of the RAV4 EV California compliance car powered famously by Tesla and contributing to the Fremont factory. That was largely the product of the failure of the Joint venture with GM, rather than inherent Toyota problems.

From our perspective, conditioned by facts and, factually, bias, to see BEV as THE solution, back in the later 1990's that was definitely not a sure thing. Toyota has devoted itself to Deming's-style continuous improvement, as is copiously documented as "he Toyota Way". What hindsight tells us, especially those of us so enamored with Deming, is that such an approach fails miserably when technological change reorders objective reality. That, rather than short term market weakness in Japan dissuaded Toyota from greater innovation building on their initial lead.

In my opinion, versions of that drive for Demings-style continuous improvement, has inhibited the entire established auto industry, including Toyota. Further all of them, whether Japanese, Korean, German or US, have suffered from their explicit attempts to mimic the Toyota Way, itself heavily driven by relentless outsourcing. In short, the success pattern fo the 1980's proved the root cause of 2020's lagging innovation. Demings did not anticipate fundamental technological change.

I did not mention Stellantis and predecessors/components because they have more in common with things like 1960's German consolidation (e.g. NSU, Borgward, etc) and, horror!, British Motors Corporation.

Anybody can choose to disagree with this assessment but... it took an Elon Musk to start from his famous "First Principles" to revolutionize Space Flight and automotive technology. It really is bizarre that the pace of innovation speeds almost exponentially by completely discarding the Demings-style continuous improvement. Factually incrementalism is the enemy of progress.

As a onetime deep devotee of Deming's and as a consultant and executive I pushed to adopt mimics of 'The Toyota Way' to the extent of succeeding in fomenting both mergers and merger integration following those principles. I was WRONG!

The weakness of Toyota is dependent commitment to incrementalism. When incrementalism begins to fade, the impulse is to jump to 'the next big thing' such as hydrogen. The problem is that trained incrementalists really do not see the difference between fundamental principles and continuous improvement. That makes things such as Hydrogen seems like a good idea if one has never heard of the Bohr radius. Strangely there are many, many engineers who think they can beat that problem. Even Toyota.
That is the problem of incrementalism.

Bluntly, all that has little or nothing to do with Japanese auto market share.

Back in 2006, when plugin hybrids were still only a proposal, and Martin Eberhard had yet to be ousted from Tesla, he wrote this about Hybrids:

A world of 100% hybrids is still 100% addicted to oil.

...


I’m a bit conflicted about whether or not I think plug-in hybrids are a good idea. Plug-in hybrids are really a stepping stone on the road to a pure EV. Most people view them as an intermediate step. At Tesla we’d prefer to jump to the finish line and build the best pure EV possible now.

...


Tesla Motors will remain focused on building the best electric cars for the foreseeable future. With each passing year, our driving range will get longer and the argument for plug-in hybrids will get weaker. To hell with gasoline :)

The fact that here after the better part of 2 decades this still an issue with manufacturers makes me suspect that there's more at play than purely manufacturing challenges (although they certainly are large for those who haven't dedicated themselves) ... I wonder how much of this is petroleum lobbying and pressure behind the scenes. The oil industry no doubt recognizes the writing is on the wall (just as tobacco, chemical companies, etc...did), and that "100% addicted to oil" , all the while appearing to be green, looks good to them, no doubt...
 
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Serious question…why are people still buying Rav4s and CRVs?

I’m happy to see the Model Y near the top, but I’m surprised the gap isn’t wider against the small SUVs. Safety, driving experience, total cost of ownership,…should widen the gap. If people only knew.

Is that data accurate?

I've always read/heard the F series has gotten closer to a million units per year. This article says F-series was 750k in 2023.


Another data point over a decade (typically sells about ~800k):

If you can't charge at home (renters), buying an EV is a non-starter. Charging at superchargers also isn't that cheap and that's still time out of your day.

Folks I know without EVs think charging is too long, don't want to learn something new, used to old gas weekly routine and accept it.
 
My personal opinion is this will be difficult to accomplish given the integration of FSD into the entire car electrical architecture. There is a lot of hardware that would need to integrated into any car that had the system.

Easier path is Tesla builds the car with some restyling and brand customization and sells to the OEM. Much like GM does with the Honda Prologue.

I just don't see any OEM going either direction as they give up much of the value chain and the reason they exist!
Similar to how it's difficult to wire a speaker system into the electrical architecture? It's not rocket science, these auto engineers don't have to be SpaceX worthy.
 
FSD beta 12.3 is still doing the NHTSA prescribed stops down to zero mph at stop signs. I don´t think that comes from training clips either (otherwise it would not be that strict). And watching how humanly it is driving now I am afraid NHTSA will un-prescribe more of these human-like things like pragmatically crossing solid lines..

That could easily be done by cranking the weights up for that rule during training. That's also human behavior... we assign more importance to some rules than others, as is clearly indicated by how often I see people use their turn signals...
 
>it could be later on this year in 2024.

How? I'm lacking imagination and I've been waiting for self-driving taxis for many years. One has to make a case for FSD to affect the stock price by end of year, since Tesla has been selling FSD since 2020. For Tesla to earn revenues from FSD, they need far more than selling the FSD license and have a network of fleet managers, etc. v12.3 and end-to-end video training help a lot, but that does not translate to revenues before quote some time. Certainly not 2024 IMO (and I'm holding)


In 2016 I bought a Model S. HW1 Autopilot made long road trips much less fatiguing. Today I can’t image doing without Autopilot on highways.

FSD has made in town driving more stressful, since you have to not only watch the other idiot drivers, but also watch what idiot moves your own car might make. However it seems to me that FSD is close to a flipping point where it will be less stressful to use than driving yourself, and safer. The driver will still have to monitor, but not intervene constantly. So just like Autopilot on the highway.

IMO, once FSD is at the level to make driving less stressful, and safer, then there will be more demand for monthly subscriptions. Tesla may need to adjust pricing to maximize revenue, but I do expect more FSD revenue in 2024, which will flow directly to the bottom line.

GSP
 
What I wrote is from the book "The Prius that Shook the World", which was written during that time. Except the last part which was my interpretation of current events and what I saw after 2004.
FWIW, to have quoted the source initially might well have had better commentary from others who have read that tome. We all benefit from sharing sources, that does explain how specific interpretations happen.
That book, which I have read, was written with total cooperation by Toyota and was the semi-official history of the project. It could quickly go off-topic to delve too deeply, but the unsaid facts are that the very constraints they document for Prius helped make them choose to use Tesla for the RAV4 EV compliance project. That not only gave Tesla Lathrop, but also was a major factor in Tesla survival.

Thus, I recommend reading this book, which helps explain Toyota hubris on one side and the incredible capacity they have had for innovation rarely deployed so creatively as for Prius, even though their biases kept them from understanding what was possible. They could have become world dominating in BEV's, had they not accepted that the very lack of established industry capacity did not equal lack of opportunity.

The moral of this story is that 'First Principles' need to rule of mankind can succeed to overcome it's own destructiveness.

Just think what Mercedes-Benz and Toyota might have become if they had understood what Tesla really was!
 
However it seems to me that FSD is close to a flipping point where it will be less stressful to use than driving yourself, and safer. The driver will still have to monitor, but not intervene constantly. So just like Autopilot on the highway.


It's been at that level for a long while now.

The impact report from almost a full year ago showed FSDb accident rates as significant lower than humans alone, and I've used it for the vast majority of my driving since before that-- I don't have to "constantly" intervene (and most of the time I DO intervene it's because there's people behind me and the system is being overly slow at a stop sign or something- not for safety reasons).

None of that seems to have improved FSD take rates much though.
 
Apologies for the wallpaper
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I don't know what Tesla's cost for all the FSD hardware is... I suspect the cameras are relatively inexpensive... the custom FSD silicon is no doubt the big-ticket item. But I would be willing to bet the whole package is significantly less than $6K.
If I'm not mistaken Munro guys said it was sub $1k,and that was crazy that Tesla put that much in a car even for those that not pay, that other OEMs would be dreaming it they could cut $1k out of a vehicle by just removing a few parts if a customers doesnt pay extra for it

And that in the end, it shows how much value Tesla puts into safety, since it's the same system that does all the active safety systems and also the value of the data that system generates
 
Back in 2006, when plugin hybrids were still only a proposal, and Martin Eberhard had yet to be ousted from Tesla, he wrote this about Hybrids:



The fact that here after the better part of 2 decades this still an issue with manufacturers makes me suspect that there's more at play than purely manufacturing challenges (although they certainly are large for those who haven't dedicated themselves) ... I wonder how much of this is petroleum lobbying and pressure behind the scenes. The oil industry no doubt recognizes the writing is on the wall (just as tobacco, chemical companies, etc...did), and that "100% addicted to oil" , all the while appearing to be green, looks good to them, no doubt...
And dealer push-back. BEVs spell the end of most dealers due to their low maintenance requirements. Dealers are the car manufacturers' customers, not the end users. If two or three of the large dealers stop purchasing from a manufacturer, that will spell the end of that manufacturer. Oil companies no doubt have inputs, but the dealer input is much stronger.
 
There's been a lot of consternation here regarding increase in auto insurance costs. Well it's not just you. If you look under the table in the paragraph titled "all items less food and energy" you will find "motor vehicle insurance (+20.6 percent)" in the last year!

SOURCE: Consumer Price Index Summary - 2024 M02 Results

Chair Powell actually mentioned in his latest testimony that "insurance of various different kinds—housing insurance, but also automobile insurance, and things like that—that’s been a significant source of inflation over the last few years,”

TESTIMONY:
 
In 2016 I bought a Model S. HW1 Autopilot made long road trips much less fatiguing. Today I can’t image doing without Autopilot on highways.

FSD has made in town driving more stressful, since you have to not only watch the other idiot drivers, but also watch what idiot moves your own car might make. However it seems to me that FSD is close to a flipping point where it will be less stressful to use than driving yourself, and safer. The driver will still have to monitor, but not intervene constantly. So just like Autopilot on the highway.

IMO, once FSD is at the level to make driving less stressful, and safer, then there will be more demand for monthly subscriptions. Tesla may need to adjust pricing to maximize revenue, but I do expect more FSD revenue in 2024, which will flow directly to the bottom line.

GSP
I agree with this entirely.

HW1 Autopilot driven by MobileEye saved me from a driver side 50mph collision in a whiteout at a traffic light obstructed by pine trees when a guy blew a red light. It saw him before I could, stopping the 3 ton 2016 MX 75D from 45 mph on a dime, resulting in a complete miss by literally inches as he blew past the front of my car instead of directly into me. I thank Elon and everyone at Tesla to this day that my life didn't change drastically that day.

I have several other stories like this: one where a boxtruck tried to take me out on a highway in Maine at like 2am. He came from my passenger side blind spot when merging on the highway into me, and AP1 masterfully shifted lanes to save a certain collision.

What is my life worth? What is it worth for my children to have a father?...for their mothers to have me?...for my family and friends and work and customers...alll to have me around and well? What is it worth to me to make sure my children are safe in my vehicle? The roads are dangerous.

I wager AP and FSD (on 4 cars now: $6k, $10k, $10k, 12k) has paid for itself even in it's imperfect form.

In Ohio, v11 is nearly flawless everywhere I go. This means I can be productive while co-piloting. I can respond to emails and texts for work and personal. If my kids drop something in the back seat or if they need food or something to do, I can quickly attend to them without someone else in the car to help. I can hold conversations and not lose my train of thought because the car is doing the thinking along my route.

I have driven 10s of thousands of miles on road trips from Maine to Florida: through the winding roads deep in the Smokey Mts during a whiteout, along hairpin turns; through the night and tunnels in West Virginia foothills; through sheets of rain in Georgia. It was 99.99% perfect at this even 2 years ago on the highway. It saved me so much anxiety in these and many more situations. I plan to venture west (I usually fly because I can't stand the monotony of driving in middle America) this summer. I have rented Teslas and driven the entire coast of California on FSD. I have also rented Volvos, Chevys, BMWs, and Benzs with assisted driving and it's sooooooooo laughably disappointing. It feels like I am set back to the 90s or something. FSD in its current form is stunning. Sure it can't drive without a human yet, but it has enormous value.

Etc. Etc...

I think anyone who DOESN'T currently own FSD is nuts, ESPECIALLY if you have children. Your life is worth it.
 
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I'm impressed with how close the Model Y was to the Ford F-series in 2023. And I'm also wondering if Model Y can continue its momentum in 2024. Big question.
Springboarding on this post to interject that in my opinion, it is ludicrous and purely deceptive to amass numbers under the “F-Series” catchall. An F-150 has less in common with an F-750 than a Model 3 has with a Model S, to say nothing of a Model Y.

Yet there we are. But it is likely even some participants in this forum - to say nothing of the general public - are unaware of this artifice.

On edit: at times Ford classifies the 750s as Medium Duty, and at times Heavy. I’m trying to get the breakdown of sales volumes for each of the light- and mediums; generally they are opaque. F-150, -250 and -350 are normally what are considered generic pickups. The -450 crowd typically are relegated to the serious horsey people (4-8 horses per trailer), and the very heavy 5th wheel (non)motorhomes. 550s and 650s are used by the mobile cranes (“boom trucks”) and similar smaller work trucks, and the over-the-top “glamour” motorhomers.
F-350 are the heaviest pickups that, for North Americans, we consider providing a car-like comfortable ride. I’ve driven-450s: harsh; and -550s: really unpleasant for driving more than short distances.
 
In six weeks we will begin to have a better idea of where v12.3 < v12.4 < v12.5 is headed.

To answer your question "How?" When the product is compelling enough, every Tesla owner has the ability to start paying for the FSD subscription at the press of a button. Tesla can begin to offer 3 months free of FSD with all new purchases with the option to "opt out" at the end of the period. When it becomes obvious this is the way, auto manufacturers will have no choice but to partner with Tesla, MobileEye, or NVidia in order to stay relevant in the race to autonomy. I'm certain many OEMs partnered with NACS with much chagrin, but they did it in quick succession. This disruption will be violent and rapid once the spark ignites it. The spark will be in 2024, isn't that obvious now?

I don't know if the "FSD spark" will be in 2024 or not, but I'd say certainly within the next two years. The improvement between v12.1 to v12.3 has been rapid and drastic, much more so than its been for the past few years, so this could possibly be the year. I still think it will be 2025 but then I'm often overly conservative so what do I know!

Its exciting honestly, Tesla FSD might finally be coming to fruition relatively "soon".
 
This article shows the importance of Tesla's Model 2 or whatever it will be called. While BYD's finances are murky, they are growing with the help of the Chinese government. Tesla pulls off the Model 2 at the right price point, it will need all the excess production capability in Belin, Shanghai, Austin and soon to be built Mexico.

 
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