Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hitchhiker]

You say you disagree, but then agree?

You stated that it wouldn't happen for 10+ years. I was stating that it may take 10+ years to complete, but it will start to happen immediately and will be a gradual transition.

 

[Knightshade]

As an intermediate step to robotaxi, isn't there a world where driver assist technology with a certaion level of functionality gets mandated as required safety functionality for every car the same way seatbelts and airtbags are?

No.

Look into just how long it took for any of those things to go from "exists" to "mandated by law"

It's generally measured in decades. It was 78 years for seatbelts.

 

[uscbucsfan]

If RT is announced with a different sensor suite than all other Teslas, more cameras or Lidar, etc. I think we'd see some panic on 8/8.

 

[scaesare]

You are assigning blame to WS. WS is not taking advantage of EM. EM made a deal, he's made lots of deals. The deal had conditions. WTF was he thinking I will never know, I assume he wasn't. This is why you have COUNSEL, he has none...on purpose. CT, keeping 4680 staff at 100 (WTF), and Twatter. Current issue is all on EM. X is hiring like crazy because they are rebuilding the same structure that existed before EM took control. So yeah, he bought a functioning un profitable company for far too much. F'd it up so it was no longer functional in the view of the ad folks, killed value and revenues, and now is having to rebuild it all and hope ad folks return.

I'm not sure I agree with the "no counsel" part... we've heard a number of times how he's been talked out of stuff...

 

[scaesare]

There are two, ya know, actual wars going on right now.

A bit tone deaf to keep seeing this "wartime CEO" mumbo jumbo pop up.

A little perspective is needed by some.

There's always a war going on somewhere. The phrasing isn't trivializing it, any more than somebody saying "this means war" in a competitive not-actual-combat scenario.

 

[Gigapress]

Agree with all except for the carpooling/ride sharing. These only work if 1) The people who carpool/rideshare live very close to each other or live along the route taken, and 2) their work hours never ever vary, not even once (they always start and end at exactly the same time each and every work day).

I doubt it will be a big difference in the rate of carpooling. However I have personally used Uber Pool many times to save money. Uber doesn’t offer that option anymore but the attraction was that the fares were lower. Some customers would be price sensitive.

 

[uscbucsfan]

You stated that it wouldn't happen for 10+ years. I was stating that it may take 10+ years to complete, but it will start to happen immediately and will be a gradual transition.

It would never be complete in the US. People will always own cars.

Again, 100k Ubers and the worst parking conditions (almost) on the planet and 45% of people in NYC own a car.

Why would a driverless Uber/taxi change that?

 

[sunwarriors]

What is the "napkin sketch" USD 4000 scenario, if you have one?

I think the talk of $4000/share price is insane. The company would be valued at $12.8 trillion (with the 3.2 billion float), more than anything else out there and larger than Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, nVidia combined.

 

[Mengy]

No downside risk, Max flex.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780494285487448184

Why the Market gets the Robotaxi - Compact Car story Totally Wrong

While most people think Tesla has chosen between Robotaxi and Compact Car, the reality is that Tesla is making one model that is technically so similar it is technically both. Adding controls is a quick fix you can do anytime without a huge time effort.

Tesla will have one production line for both cars with the unboxed process and from the outside, you won't see any difference at all. In fact, the test production line already exists. There is no delay of the compact car at all, it is coming.

Elon uses a smart risk-avoiding strategy because if FSD takes for whatever reason longer, Tesla can sell the car as a compact car, and if FSD goes as predicted fast, it's a no-brainer to use it as such because of the expected 5 times higher margin and incredible profit.

Vehicles that are sold as compact cars can be any time later reused as full-blown Robotaxis and Tesla may even only lease them to have enough vehicles coming back if needed.

There is no bet or gamble but an awesome strategy. $tsla

h/t @avoigt

I disagree with you that going all in on autonomy is a risk free strategy, as FSD is not solved yet.

IMHO, the better strategy would be to produce the consumer variant of the Gen3 car FIRST with manual controls (for which the potential market is HUGE) while FSD is being solved over time, and THEN begin making the RT on the same lines as the Gen3 once FSD is ready. I agree with Franz and Lars on this one.

If these rumors are correct then Elon is doing this backwards, in an extremely risky decision, because if the manufacturing lines get ready to produce the RT and FSD is still not solved, well what then? Time to retool to make the Gen3 for consumers, which could have easily been done in the first place.

 

[Christine69420]

If RT is announced with a different sensor suite than all other Teslas, more cameras or Lidar, etc. I think we'd see some panic on 8/8.

That is about as probable as Tesla cancelling the Gen3 to produce the Tiago on licence from indian Tata.

 

[scaesare]

No downside risk, Max flex.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780494285487448184

Why the Market gets the Robotaxi - Compact Car story Totally Wrong

While most people think Tesla has chosen between Robotaxi and Compact Car, the reality is that Tesla is making one model that is technically so similar it is technically both. Adding controls is a quick fix you can do anytime without a huge time effort.

Tesla will have one production line for both cars with the unboxed process and from the outside, you won't see any difference at all. In fact, the test production line already exists. There is no delay of the compact car at all, it is coming.

Elon uses a smart risk-avoiding strategy because if FSD takes for whatever reason longer, Tesla can sell the car as a compact car, and if FSD goes as predicted fast, it's a no-brainer to use it as such because of the expected 5 times higher margin and incredible profit.

Vehicles that are sold as compact cars can be any time later reused as full-blown Robotaxis and Tesla may even only lease them to have enough vehicles coming back if needed.

There is no bet or gamble but an awesome strategy. $tsla

h/t @avoigt

And the move to everything-by-wire (throttle, now steering, and eventually braking) makes this even easier. No mechanical linkages means eventually it will just be a dash change.

 

[2daMoon]

Another reason which is not helping sales is that Tesla can’t sell directly to customers in many states.
We seem to have accepted this but many people still have the buying from a physical location mindset.

Tesla can and does sell directly to customers in those states, from outside those states. That is still direct sales.
Anyone who uses Amazon to buy things quickly adapts and buys themselves a Tesla.
It should be obvious by now how this is no significant impediment to Tesla sales.

What they cannot do is have a customer walk into a showroom and buy one from the staff working there.

This issue will resolve itself as the dealership network cartel crumbles as their OEMs are unable to provide the vehicles their customers are asking for in adequate numbers for the dealership model to remain relevant.

 

[scaesare]

I’ve seen it done several ways. Had it happen personally once, just like this one. Worked for a medium sized cloud company sold to Private Equity. Those who were not slated to be retained ( in my case, no interest in gov business), were notified and removed from system access the same day. My case - a phone call during my commute; FSD would have been helpful. I have worked for other companies that do it through packages and affected employees leave at a future date and usually with a severance package. Personally, I prefer the second approach.

I think the issue with the second choice is the need for some companies like Tesla is to remove access to avoid losing intellectual property, prevent sabotage, etc... and the fact that employees really can't do their job at that point. Not sure what the severance package situation is...

 

[Ellec]

You stated that it wouldn't happen for 10+ years. I was stating that it may take 10+ years to complete, but it will start to happen immediately and will be a gradual transition.

And the market is forward looking so price will reflect it sooner much sooner than 10 years if it takes that long.

 

[sunwarriors]

Speaking of simple math, have you figured out yet that Tesla's gross profits have actually decreased?

Wasn't the last quarter margins down to 6%? from close to 20% in years past? Someone else's comment about Tesla not wanting to be just another 5% margin car company are here and this, I believe is the main reason for all the AI/robotaxi talk, balls to the wall mode since the EV car growth market is not there anymore. Especially with massive competition in China, more EV car choices in the USA (there was literally NOTHING 6 years ago other than the Bolt).

 

[scaesare]

Q - does this mean we can unleash the Ron Swanson memes on this forum

 

[M|S|M MYP]

If RT is announced with a different sensor suite than all other Teslas, more cameras or Lidar, etc. I think we'd see some panic on 8/8.

We already see panic and its only 4/17

 

[uscbucsfan]

We already see panic and its only 4/17

Fair.

MOAR PANIC

 

[Ellec]

Fair.

MOAR PANIC

I bought shares at open, so that's probably why it's down

 

[scaesare]

Hmmm, so it's almost exactly like I said it was the past two days? And not your usual "fat trimming?"

Carry on.

The issie is that your posts seemed to indicate the layoffs were indicative of doom and gloom (dark and stormy?) in terms of Tesla's business, whereas this Tweet indicates a change in organization that is likely positive in terms of positioning Tesla for moving forward.

Not really what you were saying all along, IMO.