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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Word on the street is the trainers are certified Tesla trainers that used to work at Hertz o_O
Doubt it. Police are in fact trained to drive the cars they drive because they are often required to drive them at the edge of the envelope of what the car can do. This is especially true in California where they seem to like high speed chases a lot if the TV is anything to go by :).
 
Not sure why but I’m starting to think that some people must have completely different experiences with FSD than I do. Not only would my car start yelling at me if I did anyone of those things (use my phone, text, email, etc) while driving, but I would also miss all of the times I need to disengage FSD. Just on my way home from my kids practice last night (4 miles) I had to disengage 4 times. Two potholes that it would have plowed through, kept it from moving into the right most lane and jumping on the highway when my turn was beyond the on ramp, and when it made a right turn it went into the shoulder thinking it was a lane.

I feel like I need to be more alert when using FSD which seems to be the opposite of some people here. At least around town (suburbs and city streets). Highway less so unless there is road construction.

Maybe this is the reason why people are way more bullish than I am on FSD and going all in on RTs. 🤷‍♂️
Two cars on FSD and my experiences are similar to yours. I do think that the new approach of v12 shows some real promise to improve far beyond v11 and earlier releases. I understand greed and keeping in Elon’s good graces leads to ridiculous YouTube videos but if one reads this website I think you get a pretty good idea of what’s really happening. You can also get some good intel on this website to avoid calamities like getting your wheels curbed courtesy of v12.😀
 
In order to improve her position. Are you serious or just being difficult?

By not answering my simple yes/no question and instead attempting to distract with a question of your own, you expose your unwillingness to proceed in honest conversation. It's tough to take seriously.
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In the back half of 2023 the stock price went from ~$275 to ~$205. Share count went from over 4m to 2.6m. So she literally sold the dip.

Anyway, we don't really need to argue this anymore. The evidence is out there for all to see. She's a terrible fund manager.
 
What, exactly, would give one confidence that there’s something uniquely ”fantastic” now about $150?

Today's share price action is about filling the gap to January 25th 2023. The high for that day was $146.41 and that Gap has remained open ever since. Hedgies and wedgies hate gaps the way a bull hates a red flag.

If we hit that share price today, then they'll reset their goal to test the next support level which was January 6th 2023 with the low that day at $101.83 possibly in coordination with another bear raid after the earnings call.

Is that "fantastic" enough for you? 😆
 
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4) In summary: the dramatic delivery miss in RoW appears to be the main explanation. But why did it miss so much? RoW comprises mostly long-distance-from-production markets like Japan, Israel, Singapor, Turkey, Australia, New Zealand, UAE, Qatar, etc. The Red Sea conflict has several severe effects on Tesla's supply lines but the likely most significant impact comes from reduced global shipping capacity due to the lengthening of major shipping routes! The Red Sea conflict forces a large share of the global cargo fleet around the much longer Cape Route. This effectively reduces global cargo capacity and transportation times. As per point (2), Tesla performed actually better than expected in China and Europe. A factor in a reduction in U.S. but not enough. However, I was only 6.4K units too optimistic. Hence the overall primary driver must have been a global shipping to RoW markets debacle.

 
Doomed is too strong a word I think.

I don't believe too many long term TSLA investors are "FSD skeptics" per say, but rather many people don't think FSD will be robotaxi ready within a few years timeframe. It's getting very close now, but its not there yet. Given this reality, the very notion of focusing completely on robotaxi production right now while postponing or even scrapping the consumer $25K car seems like an extremely risky (and unnecessary) move.
Okay, you need to understand this is what YOU think. It may also be what some others whose comments you’ve read think.

I do not think this in anyway, shape, or form, and I factually know there are others not thinking it.
It's a hail mary pass when you are 4th and inches. It's like building a network of gas stations years before the Model T goes into production. Those gas stations would just sit empty until people could buy cars to utilize them.
🙄
It's not a matter of Tesla being doomed, its a matter of TSLA tanking horribly due to a massive potential misstep which could easily be avoided.
🙄

Classic focus on your pocketbook, swept up in the noise that’s meant to make you fearful, uncertain and doubtful. Your like PacMan running into the ghost at every intersection.

More importantly it also shows you don’t understand the company (or the man) you’re invested in, even a little bit.

You arrived several years late to the party and missed all of what made Tesla. You even missed all of what made SpaceX, which was inexorably intertwined with Tesla.

I understand none of what I’ve said now or in the past few days will resonate with you or give you a lightbulb moment. You can’t know what you haven’t lived.

Do you even know the story of the fourth ever attempt by SpaceX to get a rocket to orbit and what led up to that ‘final’ try?

Do you know the stories of Model S late 2012 and then early 2013?

Not the superficial fluff, but the stories by the people who lived it? Have you felt what those people felt?

Here’s your phone a friend clue: Elon never gives up. Elon won’t ever give up. Elon always has another plan working in his head that nobody knows - that’s where the whole 3D chess crap came from. People make a joke of it now, but it came from multiples of factual evidence that Elon is always thinking way ahead. He’s always got another possible solution.

What’s happening right now is classic Elon. It’s Elon at his very best. It’s the guy you want leading the charge. It’s the guy people have followed into the unknown for more than a decade.

Instead of fretting and wringing your hands and searching for all the ways this can’t work, you should be sitting back, sipping your favorite beverage, waiting for the fireworks show.

*This*, that’s about to happen, that’s happening, is a pivotal moment akin to Model S’s unanimous (never before, not since) MotorTrend’s 2013 Car of the Year. Not just in Tesla’s history, but will be viewed in the future as a pivotal moment in human history. It’s that pivotal fourth and final rocket attempt by SpaceX.

Simply. I’m manically laughing. Hardly anyone knows what’s about to happen. Most everyone is going to be wrong.
 
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In the back half of 2023 the stock price went from ~$275 to ~$205. Share count went from over 4m to 2.6m. So she literally sold the dip.

Anyway, we don't really need to argue this anymore. The evidence is out there for all to see. She's a terrible fund manager.
In case anyone wants to see the average selling prices you are referring to on the back half of 2023....
Screenshot_20240418_102622_Chrome.jpg


A total of around 1.03M shares at an average closing price ($256.88 in Q3 where 75% of the shares were sold, and $237.66 in Q4 where the remaining shares in H224 were sold). These sales well above any purchasing price this year as she has been repurchasing those shares.

I don't disagree she has a pretty poor track record on the whole as a fund manager. My point, which you continue to try to elude, is that she is unusually adept at timing her TSLA trades. You can't argue facts (try as you may).
 
I’ve mentioned the maxim “Never try to catch a falling knife”.

Related is the humility to recognize how many times one has been wrong before. IOW, thinking $250 or $200 or $175 was “just a fantastic price” and buying all the way down. What, exactly, would give one confidence that there’s something uniquely ”fantastic” now about $150?
The very roundness of the number. Round numbers are irresistible.
 
Doomed is too strong a word I think.

I don't believe too many long term TSLA investors are "FSD skeptics" per say, but rather many people don't think FSD will be robotaxi ready within a few years timeframe. It's getting very close now, but its not there yet. Given this reality, the very notion of focusing completely on robotaxi production right now while postponing or even scrapping the consumer $25K car seems like an extremely risky (and unnecessary) move.

It's a hail mary pass when you are 4th and inches. It's like building a network of gas stations years before the Model T goes into production. Those gas stations would just sit empty until people could buy cars to utilize them.

If Tesla gets the robotaxi line up and running before FSD is L5, what then? They'd likely have to pivot the robotaxi production line to a consumer $25K car, when they simply could have done this in the first place. Start with the steering wheel variant (for which massive demand exists right now) while FSD is being solved, and THEN switch to robotaxi's once the software is solved.

It's not a matter of Tesla being doomed, its a matter of TSLA tanking horribly due to a massive potential misstep which could easily be avoided.
I suspect Tesla is planning to produce the RoboForm platform as a model 2 with steer/brake/accelerate -by wire. That yields the flexibility to quickly revert production to/from model 2 or robotics with minimal impact on production/cost
 
MotorTrend’s 2013 Car of the Year.

Model S was also Motor Trend's Car of the Century. It was declared the best car among all best cars of the year ever announced since the magazine's first publication over 70 years ago. That's how good the Model S is. And you know what, now Model S is a sideshow ! 😽
 
Okay, you need to understand this is what YOU think. It may also be what some others whose comments you’ve read think.

I do not think this in anyway, shape, or form, and I factually know there are others not thinking it.

🙄

🙄

Classic focus on your pocketbook, swept up in the noise that’s meant to make you fearful, uncertain and doubtful. Your like PacMan running into the ghost at every intersection.

More importantly it also shows you don’t understand the company (or the man) you’re invested in, even a little bit.

You arrived several years late to the party and missed all of what made Tesla. You even missed all of what made SpaceX, which was inexorably intertwined with Tesla.

I understand none of what I’ve said now or in the past few days will resonate with you or give you a lightbulb moment. You can’t know what you haven’t lived.

Do you even know the story of the fourth ever attempt by SpaceX to get a rocket to orbit and what led up to that ‘final’ try?

Do you know the stories of Model S late 2012 and then early 2013?

Not the superficial fluff, but the stories by the people who lived it? Have you felt what those people felt?

Here’s your phone a friend clue: Elon never gives up. Elon won’t ever give up. Elon always has another plan working in his head that nobody knows - that’s where the whole 3D chess crap came from. People make a joke of it now, but it came from multiples of factual evidence that Elon is always thinking way ahead. He’s always got another possible solution.

What’s happening right now is classic Elon. It’s Elon at his very best. It’s the guy you want leading the charge. It’s the guy people have followed into the unknown for more than a decade.

Instead of fretting and wringing your hands and searching for all the ways this can’t work, you should be sitting back, sipping your favorite beverage, waiting for the fireworks show.

*This*, that’s about to happen, that’s happening, is a pivotal moment akin to Model S’s unanimous (never before, not since) MotorTrend’s 2013 Car of the Year. Not just in Tesla’s history, but will be viewed in the future as a pivotal moment in human history. It’s that pivotal fourth and final rocket attempt by SpaceX.

Simply. I’m manically laughing. Hardly anyone knows what’s about to happen. Most everyone is going to be wrong.
How about we wait till earnings call to understand what will be happening when? While I agree with the general gist of what you are saying, some of us know that Elon can also make mistakes ( he can be awfully factually wrong about some of the things he posts on X for example.). Lets hope we are all happy after the call and beyond. I know too many people who will no longer consider buying a tesla because of Elon. For someone like myself who believes in the mission of TESLA and alternative energy in general, its beyond sad that he has contributed to this division of opinions around his behavior which i am certain has caused UNECESSARY damage to the brand.
 
....4D chess crap came from...
It's an important distinction. Any ole schmuck can master 3D chess, but 4D chess ...most can't even IMAGINE it, let alone attempt it. And THAT is EXACTLY the point.

For Wall Street to demand answers as they are today; for Dan Ives to think he understands how ingenuity actually works, with his pink suit and his chill Califonia stoner persona...pfffttttt!

Elon is the Musskiah because he is a real life Legend, a man that our children's children's children will know with certainty it is he who flew in the face of adversity and doubt in order to move humanity forward. Even more meaningfully, he does it with true humility and dignity. For anyone who doesn't understand this, I respect your alternative perspective, though I will not make it my own.
 
Doubt it. Police are in fact trained to drive the cars they drive because they are often required to drive them at the edge of the envelope of what the car can do. This is especially true in California where they seem to like high speed chases a lot if the TV is anything to go by :).
Friend was a career Oakland cop. He said they love a good high speed chase. He also said after they catch the perp, they will tell them it was a good chase. Objective being to build rapport so they are more willing to talk.
 
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By the way I drive a 2023 model S and have been driving FSD for 6 years. I see the improvements in the new software but still have had to disengage
quite a few times. Can't name all the incidences right now but for example it just did strange repeated slowing down for no apparent reason on a rural road in Mars Hill, North Carolina and last week had trouble with lane markings on the pavement involving merging lanes in NYC. So I am still reserving judgement as to how quickly FSD will solve all the many edge cases and more normal situational driving. Excited though to see how it improves in the future. I live in NYC and in North Carolina so have a good sense of both rural and urban FSD driving.
 
I suspect Tesla is planning to produce the RoboForm platform as a model 2 with steer/brake/accelerate -by wire. That yields the flexibility to quickly revert production to/from model 2 or robotics with minimal impact on production/cost
But that is not what Elon's recent tweets are implying ?

If it's not a 'balls to the wall" - all in robotaxi only message, with the recent FSD $99 subscription, the SP would be up in the 180-190s atleast.