Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GOVA]

12.3.3 was. 12.3.4…not so much. I still think it would be nice if the user could “back up” one version.

Jmho.

This was supposed to improve from 12.3.3 moving forward. For me 12.3.4 has been a disaster. Much worse than 12.3.3. 12.3.3 did park on my driveway when I signaled to turn from the road. Yesterday, 12.3.3 went onto grass divider and I had to stop from hitting a huge tree. Wife said 'it was learning'.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

View attachment 1039620


In the back half of 2023 the stock price went from ~$275 to ~$205. Share count went from over 4m to 2.6m. So she literally sold the dip.

Anyway, we don't really need to argue this anymore. The evidence is out there for all to see. She's a terrible fund manager.

My general observation is, back in the day she used large cap tech stocks such as Google and Apple as her bank which she would use to fund her purchases of promising tech companies such as TSLA, NVDA, ZOOM and Zillow. Some of those of course were busts but her winners carried the fund performance.

Now she uses TSLA as her bank to fund a bunch of dreamer stocks that have little chance and horrible balance sheets.

 

[Mengy]

Classic focus on your pocketbook, swept up in the noise that’s meant to make you fearful, uncertain and doubtful. Your like PacMan running into the ghost at every intersection.

First, I love Pac Man! Second, yes as a TSLA investor I am concerned with things which impact my sizable stock holdings. You got me there!

More importantly it also shows you don’t understand the company (or the man) you’re invested in, even a little bit.

This is your opinion, but as someone who has been following Tesla very closely and daily since about 2015 I disagree 1000%.

You arrived several years late to the party and missed all of what made Tesla. You even missed all of what made SpaceX, which was inexorably intertwined with Tesla.

I've owned shares since early 2018, the majority of them were bought before mid 2019, was I really late to the party?

Here’s your phone a friend clue: Elon never gives up. Elon won’t ever give up. Elon always has another plan working in his head that nobody knows - that’s where the whole 3D chess crap came from. People make a joke of it now, but it came from multiples of factual evidence that Elon is always thinking way ahead. He’s always got another possible solution.

This is true but Elon is not infallible, he has made mistakes before. I am simply hoping this "all in" on Robotaxis is not one of them.

Simply. I’m manically laughing. Hardly anyone knows what’s about to happen. Most everyone is going to be wrong.

I know you like to denigrate people who's opinions differ from your own, but do you feel its possible that YOU could be wrong about how this plays out too?

None of us knows how the next few years will play out for Tesla, heck we don't know how 8/8 or Q1 ER will even go down. This is why we speculate and theorize, and talk to each other in this thread, discussing both the good AND the bad of being TSLA investors. As investors an echo chamber is our worst enemy, hearing varying opinions while consuming facts and data is beneficial to every TSLA investor.

Not everyone who questions Elon or is down on the stock right now are idiots, nor do they all have an agenda. Maybe try to be a bit more lenient on posters who have different opinions from your own?

 

[gtrplyr1]

8/8 event is proving to be even more important than usual. This forum, which is well above the average TSLA investor in terms of knowledge, is throwing around all kinds of theories regarding what the actual game plan is from Tesla. Bottom line is we are all trying to make sense of the events of the past couple of months in terms of strategy. Early in Tesla's life, the game plan was pretty straightforward, build an affordable EV so the world can make the transition away from traditional auto. I'm not so sure why that is still not front and center along with the idea of robo taxi and autonomous driving?

I said it before, Elon and Tesla are not known for stellar events where people can really get an understanding of what is to come. Communication is not one of Elon's strong points. Hoping for some clarity with the 8/8 event but most of Tesla's "reveals" create more questions than answers.

My crystal ball is broken.

A very beaten "Cheers to the longs"

 

[AndrewZ]

This was supposed to improve from 12.3.3 moving forward. For me 12.3.4 has been a disaster. Much worse than 12.3.3. 12.3.3 did park on my driveway when I signaled to turn from the road. Yesterday, 12.3.3 went onto grass divider and I had to stop from hitting a huge tree. Wife said 'it was learning'.

I don’t think it has been unusual to see performance degrade with point releases that expand availability and reduce how overfit the system is to specific areas.

Seen this pattern many times, a new release starts out strong when limited to a certain geography and then worsens as the release widens.

 

[cusetownusa]

This was supposed to improve from 12.3.3 moving forward. For me 12.3.4 has been a disaster. Much worse than 12.3.3. 12.3.3 did park on my driveway when I signaled to turn from the road. Yesterday, 12.3.3 went onto grass divider and I had to stop from hitting a huge tree. Wife said 'it was learning'.

Yeah, I haven't seen any improvement from 12.3.3 to 12.3.4 either. It may have "fixed" some issues I was having but made some other things worse. I like to try out new versions because I am invested in TSLA and I want to gauge the "progress", but otherwise, I always end up reverting back to manual driving until the next update.

Just in the last couple of weeks I have made so many voice notes after all my disengagements that I am now beginning to wonder if that is even worth doing. How can they possible be listening to everyones description of why they disengage? I get the feeling that they are just playing wack-a-mole with FSD with no end in sight.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

This was supposed to improve from 12.3.3 moving forward. For me 12.3.4 has been a disaster. Much worse than 12.3.3. 12.3.3 did park on my driveway when I signaled to turn from the road. Yesterday, 12.3.3 went onto grass divider and I had to stop from hitting a huge tree. Wife said 'it was learning'.

Oh for sure 12.3.4 is a regression. I wouldn't call it a huge regression but it’s definitely a step back or two. One needs to be more on the ball with 12.3.4 or it will kill you dead.

We were really happy with the merging from an on ramp into a highway with 12.3.3. Smooth, signaled, proper speed up or slow down to merge. Now it’s back to 11.4.9 ish behaviour. Run out the lane until it disappears, drive in the gravel for a bit and then a sharp jerk to the left to jump into traffic. Any cop that would see that would pull one over for suspected DUI.

I’m sure it will get better again but we have turned it off for now until the next update. Too much drama.

Like I say though. Would be nice to be able to go back one version. 12.3.3 was nice.

At present rate of improvement I would still put RT at a decade away.

 

[Drumheller]

But that is not what Elon's recent tweets are implying ?

If it's not a 'balls to the wall" - all in robotaxi only message, with the recent FSD $99 subscription, the SP would be up in the 180-190s atleast.

I disagree. I think the Stock Price would be exactly where the options market dictates , which may be 180-190 or might be exactly where it is now.

 

[EVNow]

ANONYMOUS RETAIL INVESTOR ASKS
Retail
Following Tesla's Robotaxi unveil on 8/8, what is the realistic timeline for launching a revenue generating robotaxi network?


1.7K Votes
1.2M TSLA Shares Represented

What I'd like asked is very specific. Start giving us hard data every quarter that we can track the progress of FSD, instead of "realistic" timelines, Elon is so famous for.

- Take rate
- # of subscribers
- Miles per disengagement (classified by seriousness)

 

[insaneoctane]

IF Elon believes that there's a "red wave" coming in November during the US election, it stands to reason that the recently passed IRA, which funds the EV tax rebates, could be seen as vulnerable to change in 2025. I wonder if this influences his calculus for RT priority. This is a political comment, but relevant. Please resist partisanship- keep replies relevant to this thread and appropriate.

 

[ggies07]

8/8 event is proving to be even more important than usual. This forum, which is well above the average TSLA investor in terms of knowledge, is throwing around all kinds of theories regarding what the actual game plan is from Tesla. Bottom line is we are all trying to make sense of the events of the past couple of months in terms of strategy. Early in Tesla's life, the game plan was pretty straightforward, build an affordable EV so the world can make the transition away from traditional auto. I'm not so sure why that is still not front and center along with the idea of robo taxi and autonomous driving?

I said it before, Elon and Tesla are not known for stellar events where people can really get an understanding of what is to come. Communication is not one of Elon's strong points. Hoping for some clarity with the 8/8 event but most of Tesla's "reveals" create more questions than answers.

My crystal ball is broken.

A very beaten "Cheers to the longs"

I really don't care about the Q1 call next week, as that is all about what happened in the past. Any details about 8/8 and the future of Tesla are more important right now to clear up all this uncertainty.

 

[gtrplyr1]

I agree with many here. 12.3.4 seems like it's a step backwards. But, this is how they learn so growing pains are to be expected.

I've got a long drive today, mostly highway where there are few issues but I'm hoping to get a better idea of the update's performance.

FWIW, 12.3.3 blew me away. Very impressed.

 

[geometro]

Earnings call next week is growing in importance IMO.

 

[EVNow]

IF Elon believes that there's a "red wave" coming in November during the US election, it stands to reason that the recently passed IRA, which funds the EV tax rebates, could be seen as vulnerable to change in 2025. I wonder if this influences his calculus for RT priority. This is a political comment, but relevant. Please resist partisanship- keep replies relevant to this thread and appropriate.

While I can see responsible companies hedging for various political outcomes - making huge strategic decisions based on WAGs would be ridiculous.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Earnings call next week is growing in importance IMO.

That only makes me more nervous. When was the last time Elon crushed a CC?

I remember the magic when he would get on a call and basically turn the sentiment around rather quickly, it seems as though his anger these days far outweighs any optimism and that translates poorly.

Let's hope I'm very wrong.

 

[Nathan]

IF Elon believes that there's a "red wave" coming in November during the US election, it stands to reason that the recently passed IRA, which funds the EV tax rebates, could be seen as vulnerable to change in 2025. I wonder if this influences his calculus for RT priority. This is a political comment, but relevant. Please resist partisanship- keep replies relevant to this thread and appropriate.

Not sure he was predicting a "red wave" in November so much as wanting one. A reminder that he said a "red wave" was coming in 2022 congressional elections and he was wrong. He has also been wrong about some of his economic predictions. Sure wish he would stick to physics, cars, robots, AI etc.

 

[elasalle]

I disagree. I think the Stock Price would be exactly where the options market dictates , which may be 180-190 or might be exactly where it is now.

And what dictates the options market?

(macro, company news, fundamentals, FOMO etc etc ...) - options is just a tool.

 

[scaesare]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780778694535192598

Well that's good news. Cybertruck deliveries have started up again and Elon states no injuries OR accidents occurred due to the issue. They did it out of an abundance of caution.

And I'm glad to see it. Tesla has prioritized safety since as long as I've been following them. I've had a couple of those "an abundance of caution" recalls, and it's one of the things I think embodies Musk's idea that life must be preserved above all else, and will make me a repeat customer.

 

[Musskiah]

My general observation is, back in the day she used large cap tech stocks such as Google and Apple as her bank which she would use to fund her purchases of promising tech companies such as TSLA, NVDA, ZOOM and Zillow. Some of those of course were busts but her winners carried the fund performance.

Now she uses TSLA as her bank to fund a bunch of dreamer stocks that have little chance and horrible balance sheets.

Thank you for the honest conversation. I can get behind this.

 

[Krugerrand]

Who could have guessed... With a 39% decrease in share price this year, I think it is safe to say that your sentiment differs from that of the overall market. But at some point the market will turn from fear to greed.

The sentiment is literally almost always wrong as is the SP as a result. The two go hand in hand. There are brief periods where the SP and sentiment are correct. Very brief.

Of course you know that, knowing how the market works. Right? So why would you or I care about 39% bs in the short term. This is the LONG TERM investors thread. So, not only will I be getting back that 39% when the crooks are done, but I’ll realize significantly more when the great and mighty sentiment reverses as it always does. This isn’t my first rodeo. Not sure why you’d expect me to care about the white noise, seeing as you know how the market works.

You can continue to invest/divest by the emotional sentiment, but the deadman takes the pot. I raise you 139%.