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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Yeah, how can you not know Nvidia in gaming for decades. Their stock has been in the crapper for a few years as well. People have been buying their gfx chips back in the 90s even. As a company, their stock was not always at ATH. On Glassdoor, they've been in the best places to work for over a decade so no, it's not just about the recent stock price:

Nvidia Glassdoor Awards
Best Places to Work
2024 (#2), 2023 (#5), 2022 (#1), 2021 (#2), 2020 (#20), 2019 (#36), 2018 (#24), 2017 (#30), 2015 (#36), 2012 (#49)

It's one thing to blindly follow Elon, but another to be completely wrong as well. Surprised so many here knows nothing about nvidia and their gfx dominance for decades. Anyone even a little into gaming asks what to buy when it comes to gfx cards.

As for the negative hit pieces, it's because Tesla's growth has stopped and Elon is starting demon mode and things are not going well. It's not fake pieces when a supposedly high growth stock has no growth at all YoY. This is not a Nvidia discussion, but they had 400%+ YoY revenue growth. Maybe it won't last and there will be a pullback, but Tesla's growth has heavily stalled, hence the pivot to FSD/AI/Robotics. None of that is fake news. If FSD/AI/Robotics takes a while to ramp up, we're looking at stalled growth for a long time possibly with further threats/competition of EVs in China and simple, in the US, far more other options in the EV space.
The glassdoor rankings are very interesting....That is a decade long progression by an HR dept and leadership, from 2012-16 the company stock was not going crazy, it seems they were working to address issues. That's huge in tech. A great place to work...keeps the best people in place.
 
But of course China is one of, if not the worst, for protectionist measures, Not just tariffs, but literally blocking many foreign companies from even operating there. I doubt Musk has mentioned that once?
Agreed but in my - perhaps somewhat fundamental opinion - you won't gain anything by meeting trade restrictions with more trade restrictions. The country that applies free trade will win, one way or another.

 
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I'm guessing Musk's resistance to tariffs, (by the way great to have the same opinion as him on something these days) is because it risks triggering Chinese countermeasures which could destroy Tesla's sales in China? For Tesla, not being able to compete in China must be much more concerning than some Chinese car makers selling cars in the US. For other US car makers, the ones that Biden seems to appreciate more, I guess it is the other way around - they don't sell much in China anyway.

This whole new US doctrine of isolation and trade wars is quite sad for someone like me who always thought of US as a free trade champion. Everybody benefits from free trade, at least mid to long term.

I think it's more of a fundamental belief of Elon's. Free trade is good, subsidies to fossils & EVs are bad, but need to kill those fossil subsidies before/same time as EV subsidies.

I'd prefer if all kinds of pollution (uncapped oil wells, groundwater from flooded tanks, fracking, Nigeria's delta, Ecuador's pollution), judicial/political corruption - (bought lobbyists, journalist & politicians, Steven Donziger - Wikipedia & petro dictators) and other externalities were taxed though.

In other news, Tesla is reportedly much more switched on and insistent on suppliers sourcing from outside China and Taiwan area than other car makers (I think Dillon Loomis/Electrified covered this - especially electronics).

Tesla is doing well in China, unlike (almost?) every other non-Chinese brand.
 
But of course China is one of, if not the worst, for protectionist measures, Not just tariffs, but literally blocking many foreign companies from even operating there. I doubt Musk has mentioned that once?
Yes the operating risks is huge there. Huge. Not only, Tesla can't export profits as cash without permission. I really think GAAP accounting should discount any profits that can't be exported freely. It would do wonders for those making investments.
 
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An analog circuit would waste power.
A DC-DC converter is really DC-AC-DC.
For galvanic isolation (charging and 120/240 output), they must use transformers.
400V/800V to 48V needs only an inductor; but again, for isolation, a transformer is called for.
A lot of detail here, seems a huge improvement in production efficiency from Y to CT:
 
That was an Electrek article.

Here’s the latest from XPeng.


They claim it WILL be in a lot of cities. Nowhere have I found evidence it ALREADY works in every city AND every road in between cities. Do you have any evidence, other than that Electrek article, which seems to mischaracterize the actual press release I’m providing?

And the fact that they are rolling it out to different sets of cities at a time, strongly implies it relies on some kind of high definition mapping. Which would mean it is not equivalent to FSD.
I've done a fair amount of reading on XPeng's system. It's hard to get good English language reporting out of China so what I will say might not be perfectly accurate. But here is what I have gathered:

The important thing to understand is that XPeng's system is really two systems in one.

XPeng has a geofenced system that relies on HD Maps and Lidar. It takes an approach that is much like Waymo. This has rolled out in many cities.

XPeng has a second, "go anywhere" system that has just started rolling out, which uses a combination of neural nets and heuristics. It takes an approach that is much like Tesla's FSD V10 or V11.

What XPeng apparently does not have is an end-to-end system like Tesla's FSD V12.
 
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Anyone have data from Max Pain site? I get "No Data".
Like... "Oops, did we unplug it again? Sorry...." :rolleyes:

Still there for me, not much change in stock price to be expected for today judging from max pain:

Screenshot 2024-05-24 at 12.17.52.png
 
Actually I know a lot of video games and Nvidia.

What you don't get is most consumers don't care about the video card in their computers, only serious gamers care about this.

You can't be serious, are you? Gamers don't care about the GFX card in their PC's?

How many gamers do you know? I'm guessing it isn't too many! 😂

For a bit of Tesla humor, this short by MKBHD has a couple fake Optimus bots in it, pretty slickly made:

 
Info on 4680 from 2023 impact report. TheLimitingFactor calls pack level gravimetric energy density "middle of the road"= average compared to other packs. Question to the experts here: Does the 4680 pack get some bonus for being structural (because it saves some structural parts that would have to be added in case of a regular pack)?

 
Info on 4680 from 2023 impact report. TheLimitingFactor calls pack level gravimetric energy density "middle of the road"= average compared to other packs. Question to the experts here: Does the 4680 pack get some bonus for being structural (because it saves some structural parts that would have to be added in case of a regular pack)?

Yes, at the system level it eliminated the normal floor and cross beams. Potentially more depending what was still attached when weighed.
 
And yet another intersting piece ofn information from the impact report - what was our last assumption for growth of enery storage business?
EDIT: They are talking about 75%+ growth in deployents, which I take as MWh, so growth in revenue should be less as cell prices come down.

 
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