Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Yeah, sticking to all Foundations for now is probably a smart business move. I know people who are waiting for their CT's though (all dual motors) and I want them to get theirs soon so I can get a ride in one!

AWD on the longer range tires with locked in FSD pricing (or not, only $1k difference now, can also go subscription) and IRA New Clean Vehicle Credit does seem to be the sweet spot.
Our Beast is a YOLO/ midlife crisis purchase. Plus we have no Powerwalls so will be maxing out the Powershare option package (note: Tesla has changed what is included with that at least three times so far)

 

[Foxtrotter]

Are you referring to the long term shareholder early order?
First off, Tesla isn't going through reservations sequentially, so the 10% 50k/500k number is suspect.
The early access only unlocks ordering, not delivery. Current delivery estimatesare July-September for AWD and October-December for Beast.

No, I am not referring to the shareholder early order.
I don't see how the delivery estimates you state are consistent with being "sold out for 24".

 

[mongo]

No, I am not referring to the shareholder early order.
I don't see how the delivery estimates you state are consistent with being "sold out for 24".

Then what were you referring to by "early access to delivery"?
The dates I gave are compatible with being sold out in 2024 if you allow the new orders to bump current orders.
There is also the dynamic of the quantity needed to sell out 2024 increases as production rate improves; so it could have been sold out previously, but now they have surplus.

 

[SpaceNuts]

Xpeng's system IMO looks like FSD v9-v10 level with significantly less guardrails. The Xpeng system seems to be nowhere close to as smooth as FSD v12, but it is allowed to get much closer to other vehicles, and if anyone in the US that thought that FSD v10/11/12 drives like a jerk, slowing others behind it down, the Xpeng system is much much worse. It doesn't seem to matter as much in China though... almost like it's kind of expected for drivers to do whatever they want, and many drivers just drive around the Xpeng vehicle.

To be fair, the less guardrails part seems absolutely necessary to be able to make progress in downtown China traffic.

I don't understand the mandarin, but I thought this was a good video showing examples of XPeng's latest software.

Just watched the video. It was very impressive. I don't know if they use HD map and lidar, but their ability to negotiate downtown traffic is very advanced. But they are region limited. Thus, they are somewhere between Cruise and FSD.

I wish Tesla pay attention to those development in China. I do see some (at least one) feature I wish Tesla could adapt.

But overall, I think FSD is few years ahead.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Then what were you referring to by "early access to delivery"?
The dates I gave are compatible with being sold out in 2024 if you allow the new orders to bump current orders.
There is also the dynamic of the quantity needed to sell out 2024 increases as production rate improves; so it could have been sold out previously, but now they have surplus.

People are still getting invites as of yesterday with the same delivery estimates you quoted.

Doesn't appear that they are sold out for 2024.

 

[sunwarriors]

We have had a similar experience. Way out on place in line. Just got offer to configure. Given current price and specs, no way. Concerning as a TSLA hodler.

And they can't even give us a delivery month for a LR, white interior Highland ordered 4 months ago on 2/5. This is not looking good to me.

Just my opinion, but after the initial sales jump, I think the sales will slow down tremendously due to the reasons you state (higher price, less range/features). Did you see the recent Kyle video on the Silverado EV RST? 200kWh battery, massive range (450 miles), seems to be able to actually tow, he said it was cheaper than his CT and offers a lot more down the line.

You also have the usual existing suspects like Rivian (who will be coming out with the smaller R2/R3), Ford, GMC coming out with their Denali (440 mile range). So many more options in this pretty crowded segment now. I just feel once the $100k+ buyers dry up, they have to offer the lower priced one and even then, questionable how many will pick one up when they are pretty common. You see them pretty often in southern CA.

 

[AndrewZ]

For Cybertruck orders, I’m sure Tesla will fly through the set of pre-orders to see how many people will bite and convert to actual orders at the current high prices.

Then they’ll cut prices a bit and do the same thing.

Then cut prices a bit again and do the same thing.

Pre-orders are hugely beneficial for companies in this way, basically getting a list of enthusiasts they can move through to scoop up as much revenue $$$ as possible.

 

[GOVA]

Just watched the video. It was very impressive. I don't know if they use HD map and lidar, but their ability to negotiate downtown traffic is very advanced. But they are region limited. Thus, they are somewhere between Cruise and FSD.

I wish Tesla pay attention to those development in China. I do see some (at least one) feature I wish Tesla could adapt.

But overall, I think FSD is few years ahead.

Who said they didn't? I really think that Tesla follows a lot in China, with all their efforts in EV/FSD/AI, etc.

 

[TSLAX]

I put a deposit for the Cybertruck down on 12/6/2019. The RN was 113132 and I am waiting on the VIN.........Some folks here on TMC believe the first reservation is at around # 112744100 ?. I got the e mail from Tesla to configure a Foundation Dual or Cyberbeast at around 6PM last night. The delivery timeline indicated on the configuration is Oct - Dec 2024. I think this indicates they could be sold out for the year or last quarter. We decided to go for it this AM and configure the beast. My brother had RN 112915..........and reserved the night of the Cybertruck reveal back in Nov 2019. He was invited to configure a Foundation Dual or Cyberbeast this past March 14. He chose the Foundation - Dual due to the range advantage. He has his VIN and still waiting on the word the truck is ready to be picked up. It seems to me that Tesla is methodically going through their RN numbers based on my brother's invite and mine. I have followed Tesla for years and this is how they always approach a new product and the production release. The Founders/Foundation invites always happen first, followed by non-foundation highest trims and then the more basic trims. It all seems about right to me!

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Lot of fear mongering with the CT. Zero factual basis for it. They're up to 1,400 weekly runrate on CTs and 100% are foundation series. As an investor I don't see why you would want them to switch away from foundation series CTs that are earning an extra $20k per vehicle. Tesla should sell every single one that they can before any transition to cheaper variants. You don't even need a business degree to figure that.

My foundation series CT was ordered beginning of May and I'll receive it anywhere between July to Sept depending on logistics. These aren't sitting unwanted on lots.

On a related note there was a rumor that <10% of current CT deliveries are cyberbeasts. If this is due to the strong AWD demand hopefully Tesla will interpret this as high demand for a long range variant and make adjustments accordingly.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I put a deposit for the Cybertruck down on 12/6/2019. The RN was 113132 and I am waiting on the VIN.........Some folks here on TMC believe the first reservation is at around # 112744100 ?. I got the e mail from Tesla to configure a Foundation Dual or Cyberbeast at around 6PM last night. The delivery timeline indicated on the configuration is Oct - Dec 2024. I think this indicates they could be sold out for the year or last quarter. We decided to go for it this AM and configure the beast. My brother had RN 112915..........and reserved the night of the Cybertruck reveal back in Nov 2019. He was invited to configure a Foundation Dual or Cyberbeast this past March 14. He chose the Foundation - Dual due to the range advantage. He has his VIN and still waiting on the word the truck is ready to be picked up. It seems to me that Tesla is methodically going through their RN numbers based on my brother's invite and mine. I have followed Tesla for years and this is how they always approach a new product and the production release. The Founders/Foundation invites always happen first, followed by non-foundation highest trims and then the more basic trims. It all seems about right to me!

For orders within May the delivery date went from july-sept to oct-dec. Pretty simple leap of faith that foundation models will be sold out this year. Non-foundation series won't happen until 2025. Maybe not until q2, but that's me pulling a number out of thin air

 

[uscbucsfan]

For orders within May the delivery date went from july-sept to oct-dec. Pretty simple leap of faith that foundation models will be sold out this year. Non-foundation series won't happen until 2025. Maybe not until q2, but that's me pulling a number out of thin air

I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Foundation Series continued until they contact every single pre-order, nor would I have an issue with it.

 

[cliff harris]

You also have the usual existing suspects like Rivian (who will be coming out with the smaller R2/R3)

Rivian are not serious contenders. Sure, they make some great vehicles that the owners really like...but given they sell every single one at a catastrophic eye-watering loss, they SHOULD really like them.
At some point soon, Rivian shareholders will get sick of the losses, and force management to price the vehicles less insanely. I don't expect them to last long after that point, unless there is an almost miraculous turnaround in their financials.

 

[UkNorthampton]

A lot of fear-mongering is nonsense. Just takes time to be found out. USA used Teslas selling fast. No indication nor X replies as to what is a typical "Days on Market" - but implication that for Teslas it's a low number of days. More info would be useful.

"

Spoiler: Tweet text for search

Car Dealership Guy @GuyDealership
Tesla are hitting the private-party market — and *not* staying long.

Some highlights from 600+ Tesla’s listed on Private Auto:

• Avg. Mileage: 43,255
• Avg. Price: $40,361
• Avg. Days on Market: Only 26 (!)

The private-party market is eating up pre-owned Tesla’s at current price points.

Check out available cars across the private-party market, with insights just like these, on Private Auto: Safely Buy And Sell Used Cars Privately | PrivateAuto | PrivateAuto

(Data via CDG partner:
@_PrivateAuto
#privateautopartner)"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794022553079452064

 

[growler23]

It's almost the weekend, so please don't blame me for weekend OT. (This happens to be a major holiday weekend here in the USA.)
I just got my Model Y back from the repair shop, and kicked the rental gasmobile to the curb.
Life is much better now ... driving on sunshine.
--Growler out

 

[FastEddieB]

I honestly wouldn't be shocked if Foundation Series continued until they contact every single pre-order, nor would I have an issue with it.

I do have an issue with it.

Given the proposed release prices at the unveiling, it smacks of “bait and switch”. Quite literally.

I understand there’s been inflation. But the size of the price increase makes it border on opportunistic price gouging.

It may turn out to be the best course to maximize profits in the short term. I just worry about the optics long term. Certainly has dampened my enthusiasm for a new CyberTruck.

 

[GrandEnigma]

I do have an issue with it.

Given the proposed release prices at the unveiling, it smacks of “bait and switch”. Quite literally.

I understand there’s been inflation. But the size of the price increase makes it border on opportunistic price gouging.

It may turn out to be the best course to maximize profits in the short term. I just worry about the optics long term. Certainly has dampened my enthusiasm for a new CyberTruck.

The Foundation series is definitely that and a way to minimize flippers since they are effectively doing a "market adjustment" like a dealer does.

The base prices of $80k for the AWD version is not far above inflation Add in stuff like all wheel steering, steer by wire, 48v system and its easy to see where that extra $7k in cost could have come from if the truck was originally going to be a reskinned X or something underneath.

 

[uscbucsfan]

The base prices of $80k for the AWD version is not far above inflation Add in stuff like all wheel steering, steer by wire, 48v system and its easy to see where that extra $7k in cost could have come from if the truck was originally going to be a reskinned X or something underneath.

It also is significantly slower, has 160 miles less of range, and is smaller.

The CT simply cost Tesla far more to build than they anticipated. That includes R&D and presses/etc.

Edit: Steer-by-wire and 48v were surprises, but Elon said it would be able to crab walk like a month after release.

 

[mongo]

It also is significantly slower, has 160 miles less of range, and is smaller.

The CT simply cost Tesla far more to build than they anticipated. That includes R&D and presses/etc.

Edit: Steer-by-wire and 48v were surprises, but Elon said it would be able to crab walk like a month after release.

AWD has more range than estimated at reveal. Beast has less.

 

[sunwarriors]

Rivian are not serious contenders. Sure, they make some great vehicles that the owners really like...but given they sell every single one at a catastrophic eye-watering loss, they SHOULD really like them.
At some point soon, Rivian shareholders will get sick of the losses, and force management to price the vehicles less insanely. I don't expect them to last long after that point, unless there is an almost miraculous turnaround in their financials.

Tesla lost money for well over a decade and took 18 years to make a profit. No doubt the market (what I'm getting at) is totally different now from 10 years ago. Rivian probably does need a financial backer like Lucid (Saudi's).

I'm not trying to fear monger the CT at all actually. I just think there is a limit to the number of buyers out that for that fairly unconventional truck. We'll of course, see after a couple years as to what happens with it.