Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

Interesting that German energy giant RWE (mostly known for brown coal mining around where I live but becoming player in regenerative energies also lately) is building a big battery in Australia, and more interesting that it is choosing Tesla as a supplier. Maybe the popularity of Tesla in Australia will help make it more common in Europe also when RWE decides to partner with them again..

German energy giant presses go on Australia’s first eight-hour big battery

Green light given for Australia’s first eight-hour big battery, with Tesla to supply the technology.

reneweconomy.com.au

 

[CitizenKane]

Honestly - I think its an easy path to $2T market cap at this point with a 7-8x multiple on P/S because one is assuming $250B in annualized revenue (which they're at $100B already with multiple gigafactories and megafactories to go).

So, $650 / share is a peace of cake IMO, its a matter of when. Now, $1000? $2000? I have no idea.

So you are buying massively now?

 

[UkNorthampton]

I see FUD as defined by the intention of the person posting it. The exact same information could be FUD or not depending on whether the poster is trying to scare/manipulate the audience or whether it is something they want to genuinely share and discuss in context of the wider topic of Tesla.

Semantics, but poster of info may not see through the intent & manipulations of a malicious creator.

So batteries not lasting long based on mobile phone experiences/EVs break bridges because someone takes an ICE and adds a battery rather than intelligent Tesla design - ignorant poster is still posting FUD but without a malicious intent.

When a poster posts nothing but negatives, even when the info isn't FUD, that's something else again.

 

[hobbes]

Yup the average speed thing is absolute genius, an excellent addition. I was quite slow to notice brake and indicator lights showing up on all the cars. In general, this was a really nice update. I'm hoping the next one finally gets us in the UK some usability from FSD ownership. Even autopark coming back would be nice. I know true FSD for the UK is held up by idiotic bureaucrats

I do have autopark now but it does not seem to be the new autopark where you can pick one of multiple parking spots. Not even sure it went away, I hadn´t used it for a very long time after the initial excitement went away (cool to see what the tech can do, but if you can do it better yourself you don´t use it)

 

[UkNorthampton]

Tesla comes out on top as the UK’s most-driven EV brand - Digital Journal

The number of electric vehicles is rising across the UK with reports suggesting that at the end of March, there were 1,000,000 fully electric cars on British roads.

www.digitaljournal.com

"The number of electric vehicles is rising across the UK with reports suggesting that at the end of March, there were 1,000,000 fully electric cars on British roads.

The car leasing experts at Xcite Car Leasing has assessed data from the UK government’s agency, the DVLA. The results of this analysis have been passed onto Digital Journal.

The objective was to find out where in the UK had the most EV uptake out of 1,454 towns and cities, and what cars those across the country were purchasing in those areas.

The EV Hotspot data shows that Tesla comes out on top as the overall most-driven EV brand in the UK with 187,251 cars on the road, which is no surprise given the dominance of the brand worldwide with the likes of the Model Y and Model S. "

and...

View attachment 1051156

8 out of 10 have Tesla as main EV.

Milton Keynes is where VW Finance is based, so many cars for staff nationally might be registered through Milton Keynes. Not sure why Birmingham is Vauxhall unless there's something similar. For those who are unaware, Vauxhall is Opel in Rest of Europe, part of Stellantis who sell many similar vehicles under many brands - so that would reduce dominance of a single Stellantis brand unless they count the whole group (Abarth, Alfa Romeo, Citroën, DS, Fiat, Jeep, Peugeot & Vauxhall).

So I'm assuming some kind of odd centralised registration.

 

[hobbes]

Another stellar week

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795308537515848185

As usually quickly and nicely plotted by @piloly on X:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795308461087179258

 

[hobbes]

Semantics, but poster of info may not see through the intent & manipulations of a malicious creator.

2nd order fudster ?!

 

[UkNorthampton]

As usually quickly and nicely plotted by @piloly on X:

View attachment 1051239

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795308461087179258

So another round of "Tesla sales collapsing" FUD is shown as nonsense (China this time, cherry picking of Faroes or Vatican next time).

Meanwhile Tesla is ahead of all/most other companies in securing supply chains in case of any impact from Taiwan-related disruption.

I'd argue that Elon's focus on costs have been correct and we are now seeing overpriced non-Teslas not selling, manufacturers discounting via interest rate or cash. We'll probably see Tesla sales do ok/well while Chinese competitors go broke or dump to Europe & other markets.

Media bubble I follow suggests USA car inventories of everything except a few models are growing. Exceptions being undersupplied Toyotas (but not all models) & Tesla.

Big discounts now available and expected to get larger.

I'm not in North America, I'm relying on reporting.

In my own country (UK), I don't know anyone who's considering buying a new car. I know one set of used EV buyers who seem to be tying themselves in knots trying to pick any other brand.

Used UK Tesla prices seem to be slightly rising, even with a huge supply of Model Ys that are coming off their leases and are being sold at auction by the leasing companies.

I'm expecting another round of new Tesla price cuts as one or two markets have done (Norway). Norway often being the predictor - having the most models, including brand new Chinese vehicles and an incentive for many manufacturers to use as a poster child for their brands' successes.

Some/all Model Ys for Right Hand Drive UK reportedly now built in Berlin. Might be related to India market entry preparation.

So, I think Tesla are doing ok considering the UK market, and are highly focused on lower prices. Value proposition increases, but there are plenty who latch onto criticism of stalkless, speedo off to the side, key personalities etc.

New cheaper and different form factor models next year. Just selling a fleet/commercial-oriented Model Y van all across Europe would be great,

 

[cliff harris]

People are definitely getting confused.
X.AI is doing... we dont know what yet. But its using conventional AI hardware AFAIK, probably from nvidia.
Twitter did grok, again, probably just a stack of nvidia hardware
Tesla designed Dojo, and will use it for FSD training.

These are all different companies, doing different things. There is no scandal anywhere. The only crossover is that Elon can take his PERSONAL experience of what does, and does not work, and apply it as CEO to different companies. It also means that when he wants nvidia hardware for one of those 3, Jensen probably answers the phone.

As for worrying, and considering selling, I would remind you that:

• Nvidia is building its own in-house lithium refinery, which will have scale and cost implications
• Cybertruck is still ramping, and STILL only selling the top-price version so far!
• Pepsi are so keen on the semi they wouldn't wait for the factory completion before getting more of them
• FSD12.4 goes to customers very soon
• CEO pay vote overhang will be gone soon.
• Autonomy day just over 2 months away now.

I can understand people selling when Elon bought twitter. I cannot understand it now. As investors FSD has been something to cringe at and be annoyed over for the last 5 years. Its finally delivering on its promise now. No wonder legacy auto is trying to spread FUD.

 

[aubreymcfato]

As of now, xAI and Tesla AI are quite different. The first deals in text (X as input and Grok as output), the second in video and movement in the space (video as I and FSD and Optimus as O).
But right now there's no need to conflate the two, Elon wants freedom to operate with LLMs and Tesla doesn't need the spotlight.
For one I'm happy about the compartmentalization.

I'm sure cross-pollination and synergy will be present in the future, as has always been in Musk Industries.

 

[nativewolf]

So another round of "Tesla sales collapsing" FUD is shown as nonsense (China this time, cherry picking of Faroes or Vatican next time).

Meanwhile Tesla is ahead of all/most other companies in securing supply chains in case of any impact from Taiwan-related disruption.

I'd argue that Elon's focus on costs have been correct and we are now seeing overpriced non-Teslas not selling, manufacturers discounting via interest rate or cash. We'll probably see Tesla sales do ok/well while Chinese competitors go broke or dump to Europe & other markets.

Media bubble I follow suggests USA car inventories of everything except a few models are growing. Exceptions being undersupplied Toyotas (but not all models) & Tesla.

Big discounts now available and expected to get larger.

I'm not in North America, I'm relying on reporting.

In my own country (UK), I don't know anyone who's considering buying a new car. I know one set of used EV buyers who seem to be tying themselves in knots trying to pick any other brand.

Used UK Tesla prices seem to be slightly rising, even with a huge supply of Model Ys that are coming off their leases and are being sold at auction by the leasing companies.

I'm expecting another round of new Tesla price cuts as one or two markets have done (Norway). Norway often being the predictor - having the most models, including brand new Chinese vehicles and an incentive for many manufacturers to use as a poster child for their brands' successes.

Some/all Model Ys for Right Hand Drive UK reportedly now built in Berlin. Might be related to India market entry preparation.

So, I think Tesla are doing ok considering the UK market, and are highly focused on lower prices. Value proposition increases, but there are plenty who latch onto criticism of stalkless, speedo off to the side, key personalities etc.

New cheaper and different form factor models next year. Just selling a fleet/commercial-oriented Model Y van all across Europe would be great,

You seem to misunderstand the chart or the issue. The issue (for stockholders) is the lack of growth, in fact contraction. It needed to grow at 20-50% like it did from 2022 to 2023 but it is not, if you were worried that sales had fallen 50% than Tesla should be a $20 stock. If there is no growth than it become highly speculative or needs to adjust ratios. I hope now that EM is focused a bit more we can expect to see sales climb again, I don't think CT can make it up because they are supply constrained on 4680. So, it has to come from 3 or Y.

 

[nativewolf]

My wild speculation below. If Xai genuinely creates a good product and continues to increase in value it may be an alternate path for Elon to get the 25% control he wants in Tesla. Xai could get perpetual rights to X data and be sold to Tesla so it then has both language and video data for future training. This would be useful for bot development and to remove a perceived conflict of interest.

It's valued at $18b now, but if it gets to $50b+ it would add meaningfully to Elon's ownership stake.

are you investing in Tesla or some other company?

 

[hobbes]

Hopefully a good sign for the automotive market, too..

Apple’s China iPhone Shipments Up 52% as Rebound Gains Steam​

• Official data for April showed Chinese mobile demand returning
• The iPhone’s bad start to the year prompted retail price cuts

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[jamaatta]

There's also light in the (Euro) tunnel..

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ecb-ready-to-start-cutting-interest-rates-chief-economist-says-c596cbb3

 

[aubreymcfato]

You seem to misunderstand the chart or the issue. The issue (for stockholders) is the lack of growth, in fact contraction. It needed to grow at 20-50% like it did from 2022 to 2023 but it is not, if you were worried that sales had fallen 50% than Tesla should be a $20 stock. If there is no growth than it become highly speculative or needs to adjust ratios. I hope now that EM is focused a bit more we can expect to see sales climb again, I don't think CT can make it up because they are supply constrained on 4680. So, it has to come from 3 or Y.

Mmmm.
Things don't happen in a vacuum: 2023 was very very good, but 2024 has been a bloodbath so far for kinda everyone in the EV world.
How is BYD doing, in EVs? How are the Americans or Europeans? From what I've seen, market is tight for everyone.

Meanwhile, Tesla Energy is guided to grow 50-75%, and probably we'll get some revenue from FSD and CT.
If we're lucky and end of year we get FSD in China and EU, that's even better.
YoY, I hope Tesla will be better in 2024, with meaningful expansion in supercharging, rampup of CT and new Model 3 and Juniper, Tesla Energy and Semi and FSD, progress and expansion. If we get better while spending 10B in chips, that's bodes very well for 2025.

 

[UkNorthampton]

are you investing in Tesla or some other company?

As I replied to you in another thread, my opinion (and we can all have differing ones) is that we're between waves of growth/products/expansion and Elon/Tesla are prepped for price wars, supply chain and other risks. Competitors are clueless as to current and future risks and are trying to muddle through, managers attempting to protect their mini empire.

After the failure of unprepared competitors, Tesla will return to exceptional growth.

 

[Stretch2727]

Chance to tour Giga Texas with proof of your vote.

https://www.tesla.com/tour-the-factory

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795410566099374251

 

[Rohan]

Not true, he wants Earth to stay healthy and populated by humans, AND he wants Mars to be populated by humans also.

If either planet isn't populated by humans in a sustainable fashion that is bad. He isn't looking to leave one alone to focus on the other.

Even if he goes to Mars someday, he'll still be splitting his focus between planets.

Typical Elon splitting his focus! /j

 

[Leftlane22]

Chance to tour Giga Texas with proof of your vote.

https://www.tesla.com/tour-the-factory

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795410566099374251

You think we’ll be eligible even if we voted no?

 

[kelly]

You think we’ll be eligible even if we voted no?

Unfortunately, yes.