No, just no.
Most TSLA investors can see through the short-term issues that have been affecting TSLA and most can see the long-term remarkable strengths. Short-term, China has been a difficult auto market for everyone, but if you look at Roland Pircher's charts on x.com, you can see that Tesla is on track to match 2023's China insurance registrations, which is a real positive in this environment. Some of the oversupply in China EV manufacturing will be eliminated through this tough time, which is how supply and demand come back into equilibrium with each other. Pircher's Europe data shows a 7.5% dip over 2023 as of end of April. In the U.S., Tesla is the EV maker that dominates the market but it is feeling the effects of no IRA incentives for two out of three Model 3 flavors. Many potential buyers for Model 3 are simply waiting for Tesla to shift the battery supply (may be in 2025) before buying so that they can realize the incentive. Cybertruck is a big hit and will be growing in production substantially as 2024 progresses. Auto buying in the U.S. overall will perk up after interest rates start coming down, and that's a waiting game. Here's the important point, though: Tesla is still generating BILLIONS in cash flow that it is using to fund its next moves.
Here are Tesla's next moves:
* Tesla is projecting that Energy product deliveries grow 75% in 2024 compared to 2023. That's a high margin business at present and energy is going to be generating BILLIONS of dollars in cash before long
* In late 2024 or 2025, Tesla will reveal the lower-cost models that will use a combination of Gen 2 and Gen 3 construction techniques. Tesla will extend its lead in North America's EV market and these same vehicles will sell worldwide in time.
* By the end of 2024 Tesla will have spent $10 BILLION in expanding its AI compute power so that it can better train FSD, Optimus robots, and more general AI objectives. Only a handful of companies are capable of expanding their AI compute this quickly and it's necessary to give Neural Nets the power to speed up the development of FSD and Optimus. Here's the kicker, though: Google, Meta, and Microsoft lack the manufacturing chops to compete head to head with Tesla in robotics, and only Tesla has the EV know how and data to quickly spin up a domineering position in the robotaxi world. Tesla's robotaxi reveal on August 8 will further illustrate Tesla's lead in reaching the insanely high margins that come to operating the first really widespread robotaxi fleet. Useful, unsupervised FSD will HUGELY affect Tesla's ability to sell its vehicles because 1) FSD is so useful for the elderly or for people who want to turn their attention elsewhere while in the vehicle, and 2) fleet operators will buy Teslas to operate on Tesla's robotaxi network.
So, Tesla's automobile revenues continue to generate the funds to facilitate BIG profit centers known as Tesla Energy, Tesla (robotaxi) Network, and Optimus robots while developing new vehicle types and waiting for the economic environment to improve. You need to step back and look at the whole of Tesla to appreciate where this company is heading.
