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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Dude, how many Superchargers are in your area? I can’t even see SF on the map because of all the red dots.

There is exactly one location. It covers about an area with a population of 1-1.2 million people. The grey locations are "coming soon". Also the Daly City one has 72 kw chargers only.

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Nah, I think it will go lower and I am preparing myself to see 150. If I can be mentally prepared for 100 then I guess I am golden.

$100? Then we really went through a lost decade. I will have to go on another soul searching journey in India, wondering WTF is the meaning of my life after wasting so much time supporting TSLA for the past 10 years of my life.
 
I am going to use this excellent post to leapfrog back to one of my earliest-ever posts on TMC. Around report time for 2013 1Q or 2Q, I posited that the very most defensive and offensive (OFF-ensive, not of-FEN-sive)* plays Tesla could do would be to report sales and/or deliveries at midnight PST every single day.
In this manner, not only would Tesla control the narrative, with no one on Wall St being able to complain against a lack of transparency, but it would come close to completely defusing this malevolent Quarterly Trauma, AND it would generate ceaseless gastric eructations amongst executives in every other auto company on earth.

This proposal was met with near-unanimous disagreement amongst the then-active Forum members, many of whom claiming it was unwieldy and presenting unnecessary and confusing information.

After three dozen subsequent quarters, I bring it up again, unshaken not only in my belief of its merits but as a further effort in my desire to upend that deplorable Cult Of The Quarterly.


*Well, it would be of-FEN-sive, as well. But only to those who most dearly need to be offended.

I love this idea, though I’d be perfectly happy with monthly reporting. No geographic breakdown, no ASPs, just a single number of Teslas sold worldwide in a given day/month.
 
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I love this idea, though I’d be perfectly happy with monthly reporting. No geographic breakdown, no ASPs, just a single number of Teslas sold worldwide in a given day/month.

Reporting numbers work only when numbers are good. (So at this time it's a bad idea)

Reference - GM etc stopped doing monthlies
Apple stopped giving iPhone sales metrics

~ cheers!!
 
Oh, look, they settled and Musk clearly won.
It's not that every Tesla tweet has to be reviewed.
No, he can still tweet freely about employees morale, and... Must be some other stuff too...

But to wrap up, this was a grown up thing of Musk to do.

@Fact Checking, nice answer earlier. I would think answering my personal message from couple of days ago (to hash out our differences) would've been better form, but, of course, where is the glory in that?

I agree with Fact Checking, his point was we shouldn't automatically assume it's Elon who selfishly holding it up. Based on the outcome, my view is it's probably SEC trying to have an unrealistic list that basically prevent Elon to talk about anything Tesla, unless it's pre-approved in writing. That whole list will be viewed ridiculous down the road.

If Warren Buffett tweets "We plan to produce more catchup this year", or "we plan to introduce a new product", can you imagine SEC to call Buffett and say "did you get pre-approval to tweet that?". But based on the list, Elon may not be able to tweet any of that. If the full list is not applied to every CEO, why Elon Musk gets special treatment?

Anyway I think Elon should just move on. We should move on too.
 
The list is terrible, but better to move on, there are far more important things to do. If I were Elon, just write an interface, all the tweets go through a check in real time before being published, so I don't have to constantly worry about that huge bullet list. I hope in the future we get a documentary movie on this.
To help Elon and Tesla, perhaps Jack Dorsey could push for a "Twitter sitter" feature, whereby the user could tweet at will but none of his/her tweets would actually show up until they've been approved by someone they designate. Integrating this directly into the app and website would be ideal for Elon and many others who need to be careful what they tweet.

As for my personal investment activities, I've once again lowered my average cost per share by selling and re-buying a fraction of my TSLA shares. I reluctantly sold some last Thursday at $272+, on the conviction that the earnings report was going to further depress shares and that Autonomy Day wouldn't do much to help the short term share price. This gnawed at me over the weekend, as I never really like selling shares in a company that I believe in, even though I've always maintained a core TSLA position.

Autonomy Day was great, in my opinion, and I re-bought some shares and sold cash-secured puts. So my effective re-buy prices range from about $250 to the low $260s. If the stock stays below $240 for the next month, then I'm on the hook to buy more, at an effective price of just under $230/share. In that case, I'll end up with more TSLA shares than before. I could have skipped the options and done better by just waiting until now to re-buy shares, but I doubt I'd have waited this long, and collecting $10+ option premiums seemed attractive.
 
I love this idea, though I’d be perfectly happy with monthly reporting. No geographic breakdown, no ASPs, just a single number of Teslas sold worldwide in a given day/month.

While I initially hate the idea in general, per day could work. Per month, I think you’d just end up with endless histrionics by the press during any naturally slow month with no mentions of seasonality. I could see per-day working just because it’s an endless flood of information. You can only publish so many “Tesla only sold X cars today!!!!” articles before people lose interest.
 
His magic ball is usually pretty close, though I have noticed that it's calibrated toward the pessimistic side. Having said that, I'm not claiming this is the bottom because I threw my magic ball against the wall and shattered it.

Maybe it’s just sampling bias, but the times I’ve seen his predictions, they’ve usually been off by a LOT, nearly to contra-indicator status. Notably, several predictions of “nothing all the way down to XXX(being ~$100 lower than then-current SP)”, after which the price dropped ~$3 before rebounding.
 
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Did anybody noticed how he said he has stops in place and won't take too much of a loss? Wondering how much of institutional selling we saw today due to those stops.

Ya, he said he has stops at $250. So I am guessing today, a lot of it is from Gerber.

In the same call, it looks like Elon is receptive about taking money from Gene and Ross.
So a capital raise is definitely coming. In what form is what we have to wonder about.
 
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Maybe it’s just sampling bias, but the times I’ve seen his predictions, they’ve usually been off by a LOT, nearly to contra-indicator status. Notably, several predictions of “nothing all the way down to XXX(being ~$100 lower than then-current SP)”, after which the price dropped ~$3 before rebounding.

Weird, the few times I sampled the levels he mentioned for TA, it was pretty dead on. Also, the levels he give out are usually very similar to the one I am looking at based on my on TA levels. I think we are using the same TA.
 
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