Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Webeevdrivers]

I've just been trading too long to get overly optimistic or hopeful with regards to any stock. If you read my posts on this forum I'm basically stating the obvious:Tesla's communication sucks and needs to improve NOW. I love the company, they make unbelievable products and if they succeed we all succeed which makes it even more perplexing that they can drop the ball so ****ing hard in regards to the easy part: communicating *sugar* effectively.

I think the use of the word sugar in place of *sugar* is amusing. (Took me awhile to figure it out). The word “*sugar*” is not really offensive in any of the 4.5 languages I speak. (Actually no idea what it is in Arabic...I suck at Arabic). But I see this “sugar” thing used more and more often. Go figure. .

 

[Unpilot]

His fists are the least of anyone’s worries. You have to know by now, none of them are just cats. They’re all flerkens.

Gotta call BS on this one....everybody knows flerkens are very rare....and you want us to believe you have 2???
Really now that's very hard to believe.

 

[Carl Raymond]

So about Tesla insurance.

Allstate provides a discount plus sustained discount using their drive wise system that monitors when you drive, how fast, and how many harsh braking events.

Tesla can monitor you in a whole new level. I wonder if they will change your rates on the fly for doing risky things like max acceleration events and how often you run red lights. Essentially the car pretty much knows everything about you.. even know if you are cheating on your spouse or not. So I don't really know how hardcore they are willing to go with this. Once underwriting is assessing risks of an individual, the sky is kind of the limit.

From the autonomy day presentation I gained the impression Tesla are already performing a driver quality assessment. They give greater weight to the learning gained from better drivers.

It’s not hard to imagine how they might do this. Max g force. Steadiness of g force. Proximity to speed limits. Distance from surrounding vehicles. Proximity to lane lines and consistency thereof. Etc.

The question is, will drivers be allowed to see their own rating? Would it cause domestic disputes?

 

[kbM3]

I’ve been saying all along. This is why TSLA is a good stock to trade. Unless you were in this before beginning 2014, best way to make money is absorbing the punches and riding the waves. You don’t have to be a short, a super bull or bear, a kook-aid drinker or hater. Just take it as given. For example, Musk’s $420 tweet, that was an opportunity hand delivered by Musk to take profit. If you didn’t, well, nothing to complain about.
You know this stock is going to go up and down, and up and down, moreso than most stocks. It’s too predictable.
Have to be objective as an investor. Can’t fall in love or have bias one way or other. I’ve seen many people get tripped because of that. If you have that much passion, work for the company instead.

You cannot say Tesla IS a good stock to trade. You can say Tesla HAS BEEN a good stock to trade. At some point it is going past $400 and never looking back. Those who sell a significant portion when it gets back into the $300’s when this happens, risk holding far fewer $3000 shares.

 

[SpaceCash]

Dude. If that is the case, then you are just repeating stuff any investor should know already. Just as any stock can go to zero. A warning should be given that any stock can go close to infinity.

From someone who has been in the stock market forever x infinity.

He's obviously just a pro Fud-spreader.

Good question and I have a too long answer. Having been a TSLA investor for awhile(first big buy was bottom of FUD dip Feb, 2016 which was awesome!) and continually picking up additional shares to date. Anyhow, with the new SEC settlement/plan being a huge win for Elon the stock should most certainly rally off these low..right? Well it should...but having lived through the 420 tweet(remember...this was about terrible communication) and it's 40% decline to date, what has changed? NOTHING. They(Elon and company) continue to communicate horrendously(see earnings and well basically every thing they've said or tweeted) and have completely lost control of the Tesla Message. Do they(Elon and company) get this?

Anyhow, to answer your question, tomorrow is the first trading day the new SEC plan is in play. Because I really want Tesla and all of us(employees, investors, owners) to succeed I think it's important for the TSLA investing collective to make some noise about our displeasure with the way Tesla distributes it's message.

Also, as tomorrow goes, I'm super nervous on day one Elon is going to make some snide SEC remark on Twitter killing any chance of a rebound. Will spouting off on TMC help...probably not...but beats doing nothing.

Begone, shorty

 

[EVMeister]

He's lobstery AF.

 

[SpaceCash]

He's lobstery AF.

I just KNOW he's about to call me a teenager and I've only been analyzing his posts for about 5 minutes now

 

[Carl Raymond]

But we ALL know Elon will not comply and will continue to push SECs buttons regarding his stupid Twitter usage. This is another reason institutional investors are bailing(they know there will be more SEC/Twitter drama ahead.) God it's just so f...ing ridiculous.

It’s easy for the SEC to pick on Tesla, the little guy. When the stock goes 10x, Tesla will be the big guy and the SEC will respect the importance of Tesla to the US economy.

My belief is that Tesla will go 10x sooner, by growing at max rate, with Musk allowed to speak his mind through Twitter. To muzzle Musk is to muzzle his motivation.

 

[elasalle]

Tesla boosting referral program again...wont help the stock Monday

This referral only has one Founders Y /Roadster for the whole program ... with a lottery at the end (so only 1 car) ....
.. this is better that the one via which folks got 2 Roadsters

5K on average will get used in like 3-5 mths for common usage.

..Also, this many miles should be enticing with gas $ costs, esp. in EU .. ~ cheers

 

[bdy0627]

Tesla boosting referral program again...wont help the stock Monday

Hmmm. A demand lever in Q2 already?

 

[bdy0627]

You cannot say Tesla IS a good stock to trade. You can say Tesla HAS BEEN a good stock to trade. At some point it is going past $400 and never looking back. Those who sell a significant portion when it gets back into the $300’s when this happens, risk holding far fewer $3000 shares.

Hopefully that is true. However, for at least the last 5 years, it has undoubtedly been much better to swing trade TSLA than to just hang on. Once it does go flying up through $400, please do say I told you so. I'll actually be glad to hear it.

 

[Remus]

So it means nothing? That's really your position?

I clearly said tech history teaches us their 9 year lead doesn't matter if they have the wrong business plan. So it doesn't mean "everything". But it does mean "something".

Something? Like what?! And I am not even talking about business plan or product. Just from pure technical point of view. Starting several years earlier means absolutely nothing unless the front running maintaining the lead.

IBM had multi year lead on voice recognition, it meant nothing when they were surpassed by competitors before the tech can be productized, they just couldn't improve their accuracy as fast as the competitors can. IBM also spearheaded the research on using AI in diagnostic imaging, had a big plan as "Dr. Walson" with even marketing plans in place. They got quickly trounced by competitors because others had better accuracy. They also was the first to publish results in natural language understanding and question answering, had a big public stunt when Walson played jeopardy and won. What good does it do when Google easily crushed them later with better results?

Something, what exactly?

 

[Carl Raymond]

I’m all for Elon having a free hand on Twitter but I agree with you that he needs to be monitored in some fashion. If something he says affects the stock, it gets doubly amplified by the media. And the media only reports the negative.

My partner and I discussed this on the weekend. The bigger issue is the generational change in which media sources we trust. We see the FUD and think OMG, there goes Tesla’s reputation. The reality is we should be saying OMG, there goes that masthead’s reputation. One lie at a time, people are learning who not to trust.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Yes, those who disagree also hold TSLA. Buy maybe not as much as you, which would explain why you are lashing out so much. It feels as if you are only thinking with your wallet.

You fail to understand that Tesla = Elon, with all his good sides and all his bad sides. You don’t get to choose which sides he can have and which not. You get the complete package.

Without his good sides Tesla would no longer be around and your shares would be worth nothing.

I gave this top rating, and would like to add that even things that this forum rate bad, like exposing the SEC, are good for society. Musk is big picture. His focus is much wider than short term TSLA pricing.

 

[Remus]

Hmmm. A demand lever in Q2 already?

Whopping 100~160 dollars per car! Wow, that's totally gonna crush their backs.

 

[sundaymorning]

I find it laughable that people would refer to waymo as in any way a competitor to tesla with a serious face. Sure, they have robotaxis now! and if you want to go from one point in downtown pheonix arizona to another point in downtown pheonix arizona, they can do that! oh yes!
But what (gasp) if you want to go somewhere else in pheonix? or (double gasp) somewhere outside pheonix! or (treble gasp!) somewhere in another state!

As a humble computer programmer who has worked on large projects, I can understand that coding a quick hack for a specific situation is an order of magnitude easier than a general solution that works in every circumstance. Waymo are doing the former, and shopping it around investors who are too dumb to know better, and selling a stock price as their product. Tesla is doing the latter, and actually selling a product as a product.

The moment you are geofencing, you put a hard limit on the scale of the system, and totally destroy any adaptability on a day to day basis. The waymo system is a *nice trick*, but it is not even in the same product category as what tesla are working on.

Personally I'm not *that* excited by driverless cars as an investment, but people who value waymo at > 1% of TSLA are just unaware of how things actually work.

I don’t think Waymo cars are able to make left turns. But the tesla is now able, this is significant:

Tesla Autopilot made a 90-degree left turn at an intersection

 

[bdy0627]

Whopping 100~160 dollars per car! Wow, that's totally gonna crush their backs.

Ok, but why do it at this point?

 

[SpaceCash]

Ok, but why do it at this point?

I don't understand the nitpicking; it stimulates super-cheap, word-of-mouth advertising. The best kind of advertising.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I don’t think Waymo cars are able to make left turns. But the tesla is now able, this is significant:

Tesla Autopilot made a 90-degree left turn at an intersection

To be fair, that's not a FSD-esque left turn through intersection, that's regular TACC following car ahead + AutoSteer staying in the marked lane. If the intersection didn't have both sides of the left turn lane marked out, it probably wouldn't have worked. Maybe just one side of the lane would have been enough as long as it was the "outside" of the turn that was marked - if it was like some intersections where only the division between the pair of turn lanes is marked, and not the outside of either, it is likely the car would have gone straight and then (hopefully) bailed out of AP and screamed at the driver since the vehicle was in the outside (from perspective of the curve, not the the originating road) lane.

 

[Remus]

Ok, but why do it at this point?

Because people stopped buying Tesla cars and they haven't shipped any, apparently.