ZachF
Active Member
Also have pretty close proximity to a large automotive supply base for parts/components/etc. Between Germany, Poland, Czechia and Slovakia that's about 10m motor vehicles per year in annual production.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Also have pretty close proximity to a large automotive supply base for parts/components/etc. Between Germany, Poland, Czechia and Slovakia that's about 10m motor vehicles per year in annual production.
Sure. The ASP for model 3 in Q1 is still higher than long term status quo because of skimming the backlog in ex-USA territories. N.America seems to be stabilizing around 49k$ or so whereas Q1 was overall ~57k$. That ASP will decline faster than cost improvements so the overall $ profit per unit will decline.
NICE! Honestly, it's super easy. Get someone's ass into the seat, tell them about the features and let them try autopilot, tell them about the tax credits, and then tell them it's non refundable so you can't lose.
Only sad thing is my autopilot trial runs out in a few days so I can't show them autopilot. Elon should make it so if you have a referral, you can have five independent "one-day" autopilot trials to use for more referrals.
Pras
Member
Many signs are emerging that Tesla FUD is spread by German interests. skabooska had a connection, just today a Daimler engineer was FUDing on Tesla.
It may be just some individuals or it may be more organized. Hard to say for now.
I'd like to say a "plethora" for your loss, but in this your loss may have been a great gain.
This is to increase demand. Tesla vehicles are very compelling, but most people don't know about those advantages. This is one way to encourage Tesla owners to spread the word. My neighbor test drove my Model 3 today, he was totally surprised how great the car is. Pretty sure he will tell his friends about it too. Tesla needs an effective way to let more people know the details.
A Uber/Lyft driver who is driving a Tesla should be very happy about this free 5000 mile referral reward. He/she probably can earn 10~20 referrals a year without too much effort.
You are rewarded with the humblebrag, and what a fine brag it is!
Worth reading Tesla’s outlook from shareholder letter. Slowly.
Although we are driving towards higher internal goals, we reaffirm our prior guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries in 2019, representing an increase of approximately 45% to 65% compared to 2018. Please note that vehicle production will be significantly higher than deliveries, as it takes several weeks to transport cars from California to distant customers, especially in other countries, where they must also be processed by customs. Deliveries, production and customer orders, which are all materially different, are often conflated when analyzing Tesla.
If our Gigafactory Shanghai is able to reach volume production early in Q4 this year, we may be able to produce as many as 500,000 vehicles globally in 2019. This is an aggressive schedule, but it is what we are targeting. However, based on what we know today, being able to produce over 500,000 vehicles globally in the 12-month period ending June 30, 2020 does appear very likely.
We continue to target a 25% non-GAAP gross margin on Model S, Model X and Model 3, depending on variant mix and option take rates as our product offerings change.
In response to the operational challenges we experienced with international expansion in Q1, we are in the process of balancing our regional vehicle builds throughout the quarter. This provides an opportunity for additional cost efficiencies in our factory, supply chain, logistics operations and delivery centers.
With the recently announced product improvements on Model S and Model X, as well as continued expansion of Model 3 globally, we expect our order rate to continue to increase throughout the year as our production levels increase. We believe we will deliver between 90,000 and 100,000 vehicles in Q2. Although it is possible to deliver a higher number of vehicles, we believe it is important to begin unwinding the "wave" approach to vehicle deliveries, where overseas cars have been made in the first half of the quarter and North American cars have been made in the second half. This puts extreme stress on Tesla, negatively
affects our working capital needs and adds to our cost structure.
Energy generation and storage revenue should increase significantly in 2019. This increase is driven mainly due to the storage business as we increase production to address our backlog in Powerwall orders and deliver on our pipeline of orders for commercial storage and an expected growth in retrofit solar deployments in the second half of 2019. The gross margin of our Energy generation and storage business should grow as the energy storage margin continues to improve from its current level.
We expect our Services and Other business to grow as our fleet size and used car volumes increase. We have refocused on operational efficiency of these businesses and are targeting gross margin improvements throughout this year.
Our 2019 capex, the vast majority of which will be to grow our capacity and develop new vehicles, is expected to be about $2.0 to $2.5 billion. We believe this amount should be sufficient to continue to develop our main projects, such as Gigafactory Shanghai, Model Y and Tesla Semi, as well as for the further expansion of our Supercharger and service networks.
Operating cash flow less capex should be positive in every quarter including Q2. As the impact of higher deliveries and cost reduction take full effect, we expect to return to profitability in Q3 and significantly reduce our loss in Q2.
Although we are driving towards higher internal goals, we reaffirm our prior guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries in 2019, representing an increase of approximately 45% to 65% compared to 2018. Please note that vehicle production will be significantly higher than deliveries, as it takes several weeks to transport cars from California to distant customers, especially in other countries, where they must also be processed by customs. Deliveries, production and customer orders, which are all materially different, are often conflated when analyzing Tesla.
If our Gigafactory Shanghai is able to reach volume production early in Q4 this year, we may be able to produce as many as 500,000 vehicles globally in 2019. This is an aggressive schedule, but it is what we are targeting. However, based on what we know today, being able to produce over 500,000 vehicles globally in the 12-month period ending June 30, 2020 does appear very likely.
We continue to target a 25% non-GAAP gross margin on Model S, Model X and Model 3, depending on variant mix and option take rates as our product offerings change.
In response to the operational challenges we experienced with international expansion in Q1, we are in the process of balancing our regional vehicle builds throughout the quarter. This provides an opportunity for additional cost efficiencies in our factory, supply chain, logistics operations and delivery centers.
With the recently announced product improvements on Model S and Model X, as well as continued expansion of Model 3 globally, we expect our order rate to continue to increase throughout the year as our production levels increase. We believe we will deliver between 90,000 and 100,000 vehicles in Q2. Although it is possible to deliver a higher number of vehicles, we believe it is important to begin unwinding the "wave" approach to vehicle deliveries, where overseas cars have been made in the first half of the quarter and North American cars have been made in the second half. This puts extreme stress on Tesla, negatively
affects our working capital needs and adds to our cost structure.
Energy generation and storage revenue should increase significantly in 2019. This increase is driven mainly due to the storage business as we increase production to address our backlog in Powerwall orders and deliver on our pipeline of orders for commercial storage and an expected growth in retrofit solar deployments in the second half of 2019. The gross margin of our Energy generation and storage business should grow as the energy storage margin continues to improve from its current level.
We expect our Services and Other business to grow as our fleet size and used car volumes increase. We have refocused on operational efficiency of these businesses and are targeting gross margin improvements throughout this year.
Our 2019 capex, the vast majority of which will be to grow our capacity and develop new vehicles, is expected to be about $2.0 to $2.5 billion. We believe this amount should be sufficient to continue to develop our main projects, such as Gigafactory Shanghai, Model Y and Tesla Semi, as well as for the further expansion of our Supercharger and service networks.
Operating cash flow less capex should be positive in every quarter including Q2. As the impact of higher deliveries and cost reduction take full effect, we expect to return to profitability in Q3 and significantly reduce our loss in Q2.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Porsche costs 3x to maintain compared to normal car, Ferrari is 10x.
Depreciation can be quite severe, brutal even, but if you choose rare car, it can be minuscule (my GT4), in a good economy.
I think Roadster will have severe depreciation, and modest maintenance costs, but if they choose to make low number of them, depreciation won't be severe, unless you drive a lot. Collector's cars must have low mileage, so it's a A->A vehicle for Sunday drive, not A->B vehicle.
As for ratio of assets, how important is truly fancy car to you? I bought my first new Porsche few years back, after my mortgage was paid off, RRSP in very good shape, and I had liquid assets to cash pay for it. But then, I'm sucker for track/driving events, so that played most important role, wouldn't have bothered otherwise, I arguable spend too much on cars.
I see that the troll has been banned. But just for the record, he replied to a porn site account that actually does not tweet out any pornographic material. (lil disappointed.. hehe
)
Alphacrux
Member
Thinking of upgrading my 2015 S to a new 2019 S. Now if I can only convince the wife..
anthonyj
Stonks
I don’t think Hotlobstah was a troll. He was just a frustrated bull with bovine spongiform encephalopathy... if TSLA hits $210 I’m going to start sounding like him lol
SunCatcher
Member
Hmmm, I resemble that remark. Add onto it that my garage is full of Tesla. There's advertising, and then there's paid advertising. Paid advertising, IMO, is highly over rated. Some products need it. Some don't.
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I see that the troll has been banned. But just for the record, he replied to a porn site account that actually does not tweet out any pornographic material. (lil disappointed.. hehe
He's not a 'troll'. More likely chemically induced to be chatty. He has since proceeded to Reddit to continue the conversation about his banning.
Now as for that porn site, as Dave's Colon (not to be confused with that of our other elders') would say:
fire away!
Hello
.. Also, the Model 3 dis-assembly guy said Rich never gave him any credit for rooting his car.Tesla Model 3 - Exploded?!? : teslamotors
jhm
Well-Known Member
ASP declining is different than gross margin declining. GM is projected to continue increasing, along with production increases. Not sure I draw the same conclusion as you.
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