Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neroden]

Then why can't Tesla just buy our shares for cash?

Well, they do have other things they want to do with the cash, but who knows, they might. They have made cash acquisitions before.

I'd tender for $4.75 in cash. With the current price action, I do not want TSLA shares. It is down to what, $234? Hell, I could lose a couple grand in the time it will take to swap out the shares in order to sell them.

 

[Krugerrand]

To be honest, the defense of him and the company right now sounds like delusional fanboism.



He never says things as "I think" or "I hope" or "my guidance is..." he makes statements that sound like assured commitments, and he does not always deliver in the end at all, he moves the goalposts to score. 2018 - deifnitely no equity raise needed... 2018 this forum "no equity raise, if you disagree you're full of FUD and don't know anything". 2019 - "we think we need to do an equity raise..."



I'm glad you said that exactly like that. Because most of the people posting here desperately want Tesla and TSLA to succeed, but telling people to STFU or accusing them of parroting FUD simply because they can see this emperor is not wearing any clothes, doesn't help anyone. If anyone things the current share price (which is 20% lower than it was in August 2014) is because of Chanos, CNBC and a couple of haters, then they're completely insane.

I honestly have not seen this kind of blind loyalty to a company constantly shooting itself in the face since 3dfx sank in the earlly 2000's - or maybe even since Atari (ask your dad...)

Don’t care. You’re one of the *they*.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Fair enough.

Still, given the demand for stationary electricity storage a sub-optimal use still seems preferable to a conversion to scrap.

PS. Especially if your scrap rate is 30%. :-(

Uh, ever seen a lihium ion battery fire? You don't want to use any 'B'-grade cells for any consumer purpose. Really.

Cheers!

 

[neroden]

Looking at today's stock price, what are the catalysts that bring a rebound?

Large long-term investors going "this is ridiculous, I'm getting in because I'm going to make a mint at these prices"

 

[EVNow]

Tesla can predict how much safer their cars will get down the road, other insurance can't.
Tesla knows who are the crazy drivers, other insurance don't know.
Tesla can fix their own cars in their own bodyshops and service centers with high efficency (coming), other insurance can't.

If Tesla indeed decides to get into this business, the moat will be very wide. I don't know how other insurance can compete. We will see.

This is all true.

But - my take is Tesla is getting into insurance because they seriously think they can achieve FSD. It makes sense for them to give insurance for their own FSD driving. Otherwise they'll have to fight with an insurance company on a case by case basis.

 

[AlMc]

Basically, if it’s relevant to Tesla and more than a few hours old, it’s been posted here.

Agreed...But problem: Am I the only one that 'checks in' 1-2x per day to find 4-10 pages of posts to read thru to see IF something has or has not been posted? This thread has become a Cluster F..k.

 

[neroden]

With regards to Pier 80, Q2 is so far a bit behind Q1, fourth ship is at Pier 80 28 days into the quarter 13 days after the quarter's first ship arrival. In Q1 the fourth ship arrived at Pier 80 23 days in to the quarter, 12 days after the quarter's first ship.

So it's a bit early to say, but there is some indication that domestic versus overseas deliveries are more balanced in Q2.

Q2's fourth ship is believed to be headed for EU, for a 50/50 split with China.

Tesla Carriers

- with thanks to Franco Mossotto (@FMossotto) | Twitter

Thank you! If the ships are typically 3000 cars, this would be ~12000 Model 3 sent overseas in April (slightly less since they had to send some S and X). If they're 2500 cars, it would be ~10,000 Model 3 (plus S & X). This matches up with my guess of either 50/50 or 45/55 splits.

 

[EinSV]

Large long-term investors going "this is ridiculous, I'm getting in because I'm going to make a mint at these prices"

Given Tesla's extraordinary lead on competitors and crazy growth, the hysteria and manipulations of the past couple years have created a unique time arbitrage opportunity. Patience should win in the long run.

Time Arbitrage

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

heck, they can sell LR software limited to 80miles for $44.9K!!!
And M3P software limited to 15miles for $44.9K

I'm delighted Tesla implemented version of "my idea" (please note quote marks), but a bit concerned they did it.

For anyone not following, It's now possible to buy SR(-) limited to 150km (86miles) for $CAD 44.999K and SR+ for $CAD 53.7K.
Introduction of SR- was necessary to qualify SR+, but due to the rules(max $CAD55K), no other higher model (LR, 3P) qualifies for $5K federal incentive.

This will tilt demand towards SR+ from LR and P models, and I doubt Tesla would have done it, except that they're trying to stimulate demand; so things might be dicy for them to make this move.
Let the disagreements fly!

 

[neroden]

I believe Tesla will have to sweeten the deal (with no sale delay) or pay us cash. Then they can have my shares.

A really excessive percentage of Maxwell shares are held by large institutions -- more than for Tesla. The only thing that matters is what they think. I've never heard of some of these companies.
Viex Capital Advistors
AWM Investment Company
MAK Capital One
Blackrock (OK, I know them)
Vanguard (strictly passive, will tender)
Neuberger Berman
Havens Advisors
Guggenheim Capital
Dimensional Fund Advisors
Royce & Associates
FNY Investment Advisers
Fuller & Thaler Asset Management

They're enough. I have no idea what they think, because I've never heard of most of these companies. You can bet Tesla is talking to them, however.

P.S. Though... MXWL is now being heavily shorted. Only since the merger announcement. It's attracted the TSLA shorts, I think.

P.P.S. Many of the institutions have probably sold out and been replaced by merger arb funds, who are *definitely* voting to tender their shares (they have no interest in anything else). Looking at volume, and how it went way up after the merger announcement, they might be enough to pass the merger by themselves.

 

[mekberg]

Have you gone to a store? Friend of mine walked in to the Stanford Shopping Mall on Friday morning and had his blue LR that afternoon. Got a nice discount, too.

Tesla builds their own inventory management software, so wouldn't be surprised if there were some bugs. Most of their software talent is probably focused on the Model Y or Autopilot right now.

Completely different positions and probably programming languages.

 

[Carl Raymond]

See this post for more details why I do not think they can even get to level 5 with the current hardware equipment even with any amount of software improvements.

I was relieved to find that your post discusses extreme locations, circumstances, weather. Nothing that will prevent the Tesla Network being a huge success in normal conditions.

 

[mblakele]

He never says things as "I think" or "I hope" or "my guidance is..." he makes statements that sound like assured commitments, and he does not always deliver in the end at all, he moves the goalposts to score. 2018 - deifnitely no equity raise needed... 2018 this forum "no equity raise, if you disagree you're full of FUD and don't know anything". 2019 - "we think we need to do an equity raise..."

No offense, I hope, but... I think you're confusing what you internalized with what was actually said, and your memory isn't perfect. Just a week ago Musk used "I think" a dozen times in the earnings call, and "we think" several more times. He used "we hope" three times. To be fair, you'd be right to say that Musk didn't use the work "guidance" much in this particular call.

Next, you're misquoting Musk on the subject of a cap raise. He said:

First of all, I'll just say that I don't think that capital has been constraint on our growth thus far. And if I thought there was a final constraint on growth, we would have raised capital before now. But I think it is very important as the Company scales to make sure we are on a solid foundation and that we're -- we have the appropriate financial discipline throughout the Company and are spending money very efficiently. At this point, I think we are doing that, but there is more work to do. And Tesla today is far more efficiently operating organization than it was a year ago. We've made dramatic improvements across the board. And so, I think there is merit to the idea of raising capital at this point.​

I'm using the Motley Fool transcript, which certainly has some errors — but I also listened to the call, and this quote sounds correct to me. It was a nuanced statement, and not at all equivalent to your oversimplification.

 

[neroden]

To be honest, it's one of his best features.

Aw, thanks. :blush:

 

[ruralectric]

Agreed...But problem: Am I the only one that 'checks in' 1-2x per day to find 4-10 pages of posts to read thru to see IF something has or has not been posted? This thread has become a Cluster F..k.

Nope, you're not the only one.

But you know what I think: "Update Only" thread, man. Would be one additional thread for news and other relevent info posts, and this one could remain the Cluster thread. Should be pretty easy to moderate both, eh? ; )

The last you'll hear from me on that. And hopefully this is the first time I've said it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'd be shocked if Tesla didn't start designing cell lines at least five years ago. Knowing Musk I'm guessing they started from scratch with no assumptions - certainly not copying what Panasonic has done.

That's literally true. The 2170 cell is Telsa's creation after extensive study and analysis. Panasonic's Li-on format is the 18650.

 

[sundaymorning]

Spansk on Twitter
shame the swerving driver who ran into the tesla wasn't using autopilot or FSD. RIP.

Tesla driver walks away after this accident, a testiment to the car’s safety.

 

[neroden]

So basically your hypothesis is that most people will purchase an inferior car,

I believe, given that Tesla cannot produce cars fast enough to satisfy everyone, that yes, most people will purchase an inferior car.

Tesla is already less than the majority of EV sales. Go look at China. Tesla's in the lead, but the sum total of other Chinese EVs is more than Tesla produces.

 

[neroden]

Parts and materials and work-in-progress also affect the 800m+ inventory line item on the cash flow statement, but my comment only addressed Finished Goods Inventory.

My deltas were actually a bit high, in fact. FGI grew 570m in Q1, but my deltas sum to 690m. Some of the difference is the ~30m FGI writedown in Q1, some is mix shift and some is my lazy assumption that used car inventory was flat. In reality I'd expect it to decline some because trade-ins track sales which were down 30% Q/Q.​

Side note: I tracked down some numbers and it looks like S/X inventory was ~13.5k on 3/31 vs. my 14k.

Thanks. This does imply that there was a big increase in parts, materials, and work-in-progress. If the FGI delta was 570 million, but the inventory delta was 800 million, that's a 230 million increase in other inventory.

I personally figure it's mostly parts, given that there was a known parts shortage for service centers and now there isn't. So we can figure that as basically a one-time change.

 

[neroden]

Apparently I missed this the other day:

LG sues SK, alleges stolen trade secrets used to make Kia Niro and future VW batteries

Can South Korean battery manufacturers please grow up and focus their efforts on increasing their production rates / decreasing their costs rather than suing everyone and holding their buyers hostage? :Þ

Geez. Well, this is going to slow down Kia (who had arguably the nicest non-Tesla EV)