Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M3Rider]

Do not share info when working at Tesla: Here's the email Tesla sent employees telling them to stop leaking info

Strange that they didn't mention(as in the call with banks)
- "S/X refresh info was leaked" ==> Less S/X sales ==> bigger quarterly loss ==> your compensation is smaller as SP falls as a result.

 

[SPadival]

I hope Mr Chanos heeded my NOT-AN-INVESTMENT ADVICE

NOT-AN-INVESTMENT ADVICE to Mr Jim Chanos aka @wallstcynic,

With your average cost @ $250 (*), this is probably the last chance to get off the $TSLA short with your dignity intact.

Thanks for playing, Better luck next decade.

(*) source: institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1blmv…

S Padival on Twitter

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Bought the new convert bond and the stock stock. Was accumulating already before on way down, now have very major stake in TSLA... We'll see if I am stupid or not in a year or two.

My thesis remains the same:

• only pure EV play with substantial moats
• vertically integrated in things that matter...batteries to CPU to the car itself...even use own rigs some now to move the cars
• unmatched car software...i run two software companies and know how hard software is...there's a reason all other car companies software is not doing OTA updates yet even though Telsa did this years ago...software is hard
• supercharging network unmatched and no one will really catch them for a long time
• cars are really fun to drive. best interiors for upper class cars? no. but the car is tech laden and fast and cool.
• longest range cars...no one else even close really.
• fastest cars in their class in the world
• expanding product line coming MY, Roadster, Semi
• Solar now back on the map with highly competitive offering
• Battery business will do fine even though small portion of overall business
• they have lead in FSD and I dont see that changing anytime soon. If Elon not smoking too many bongs these days and is to be believed, then this stock will go 10x overnight if FSD is provably true.
• GF china being built...i was in Shanghai for almost month 6 weeks ago and saw that for sure they (shanghainese) have $$$ to spend there and they all want to buy the brand name leaders. China market will be huge and they will sell all they can make for sure.

...and the company even with this last couple days up is still only $44 billion. To me thats laughably low.

yeah, this price is a gift... but I don't think it will change quickly... in order to to revisit highs, demand worries need to be put to rest, and that will probably take most of this year.
And for a breakout we need to see FSD starting to become likely, not only possible, so probably 2-5 releases into the new gen. software release on the HW 3.0. At the earliest late part of this year, and maybe much later.
I wish I can invest more, but wife won't let me sell the house

 

[Cloxxki]

Funny, that investor that was positive about TSLA and didn't get enough airtime according to supporters, was basically saying "don't buy the common stock".

This will have been covered in the 100's of pages I missed the past few days, but how long was that between "we're going to learn to be learn first" to "we'll have $2.7B thankyouverymuch"? How is that explained? Decided and executed overnight?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

This will have been covered in the 100's of pages I missed the past few days, but how long was that between "we're going to learn to be learn first" to "we'll have $2.7B thankyouverymuch"? How is that explained? Decided and executed overnight?

Umm, something like 12-18 months. They decided to strip down early last year to cut down on costs. On the ER he said *they have accomplished that* and could look at a capital raise again.

 

[Fact Checking]

They barely have any 3 inventory, so why do this ?

My guess is because few are leasing and mostly preferring to buy. So, they have to sweeten the lease.

Bearish take:

• Tesla needs the upfront cash,
• and/or Tesla does not have enough Model 3 demand

Bullish take:

• Model 3 leasing doesn't come with a guaranteed purchase option at the end of the lease, and Tesla wants to shift more units to the robotaxi fleet,
• and/or Tesla sees too much Model S/X demand in Q2 and wants to shift more demand towards the Model 3,
• and/or Tesla sees better product mix in leased units (higher margins, more software options, etc.) and wants to incentivize it.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

The gaming side of me picked up on Friday 200 weekly contracts at 250 strike for the price of 1.39. If I unload those for 5+ this week I'll go ahead and get me a p3d.

Congratulations! Less than 2 hours into today’s trading, it occurred to me your gamble had paid off in a big way.

I love my Midnight Silver Metallic P3D and strongly recommend the white interior.

 

[Fact Checking]

Fair point, but the fleet only doubles every two years.

Note that the "machine learning performance" of the fleet will depend not only on fleet size, but also on:

• Feedback quality also depends on the number of owners using Autopilot and the new FSD features. In particular FSD take rate should improve dramatically from the <5% it was just a year ago.
• Feedback quality also depends on the performance of the neural networks running on HW3. Right now HW3 utilization is only ~10% and HW2 utilization is ~80%. With the much larger networks in a few months and the HW3 upgrades the total computing capacity of the average FSD using fleet unit will go up dramatically.
• We also don't know what the utilization rate of the fleet is in Tesla's own "fleet learning campaigns". If it's much lower than 100% currently, which looks very likely to me, then that gives more room to grow as well.
• HW3 won't stand still: its a first gen chip architected conservatively, both its SW and NN compilers are going to be optimized, and the hardware is going to be improved as well: for example they might shrink from 14 nm to 10 nm or 7 nm in the next iteration. I.e. Moore's Law of early generation chip performance doubling every ~3 years goes on top of fleet expansion speed ...

This creates additional positive feedback loops that increase fleet learning performance (much!) faster than physical fleet expansion speed.

 

[elasalle]

Don't click After Tesla's 86% Model 3 April Sales Decline In Norway, Volkswagen's e-Golf Now Outsells It - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Wahlman - what a joke

 

[SpaceCash]

Yesterday a cap raise - hurrah!! SP up.

Today, actually we’ll raise more due to high demand, plus the CEO buys extra - booo!! SP down.

No logic.

You CAN'T predict the short term moves in this stock. One day/week/month it will double and that'll signal a sea change. It's no secret that this is the most controversial car company and one of the most manipulated stocks going

 

[elasalle]

Funny, that investor that was positive about TSLA and didn't get enough airtime according to supporters, was basically saying "don't buy the common stock".

This will have been covered in the 100's of pages I missed the past few days, but how long was that between "we're going to learn to be learn first" to "we'll have $2.7B thankyouverymuch"? How is that explained? Decided and executed overnight?

He also said, stock is controlled by VULTURES (Hedge Funds)

 

[Artful Dodger]

[Musk Tweet] One year later. I have likely aged 10 in the last year.

Ha! I saw an even BETTER one 6 months ago:

VW CEO: Our EV's as good as Tesla at half the price by 2020 | Tesla.com

 

[Fact Checking]

Wahlman - what a joke

LOL - with no ships to Europe in much of March/April this shows the exact opposite of Anton Lieman's conclusion: every unit sent to Europe was delivered almost immediately, i.e. limited supply, not demand problems.

"Smoothing the delivery wave" will remove this source of predictable FUD soon enough.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Lex Fridman on Twitter

"I'm excited to be back on with @joerogan on the JRE podcast this upcoming Tuesday (May 7) to talk about AI, autonomous vehicles, Tesla Autopilot, @elonmusk, and maybe a bit about jiu jitsu, judo, wrestling, etc."​

 

[Zero CO2]

I have a mechanical engineer degree, biomedical engineer phd, and do deep learning work. And I have no effing clue when FSD is going to be achieved.

wow you should have solved it by now with all that background ... whats taking so long

 

[Unpilot]

Don't click After Tesla's 86% Model 3 April Sales Decline In Norway, Volkswagen's e-Golf Now Outsells It - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Wahlman - what a joke

So how can this sad little ( metaphorically speaking) man keep writing such easily disproved drivel.

I mean he is never right!

 

[Prunesquallor]

2.2b on hand + 2.7b raise + 1.8b FCA deal (over 18 months)
Literally tripled their money. Plus Moody’s had some nice things to say about TSLA yesterday

I don’t think we know what the FCA deal will really net Tesla. If I understood correctly, the 1.8b was the penalty that FCA would avoid by pooling with Tesla. If Tesla is getting that much from FCA, they made the deal of the century.

 

[EVNow]

What are you talking about?! Of course they do. That was an example of how they automatically filter and label those data.

They pushed a particular filter to the fleet to get that cut-in scenario. I'm talking about - how do you even know "cut-in" is the next big scenario to target.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Alec Baldwin talks Elon Musk, streaming industry"

 

[Remus]

They pushed a particular filer to the fleet to get that cut-in scenario. I'm talking about - how do you even know "cut-in" is the next big scenario to target.

But it's the only way forward. They randomly inspect "unknown" engagements, generalize the situation a little, specify rules and push to the fleet to collect similar cases and train the model.

You have a better idea?