Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sean Wagner]

U.S. rejects Tesla bid for tariff exemption for Model 3 'brain' - Reuters

Isn't the new NN processor made by Samsung in its giant Austin TX fab?

Edit: indeed.

 

[skybluecgreen]

They land it right on $255 what are the odds? If that’s not manipulation, lol

Notice the after hours trading- all trades either 254.95 or 255. Very unusually tight range for after hours. Makes me think the underwriters are stabilizing the price.

 

[Zero CO2]

OT


Oh, it is the only correct path. I just think it'll take them so long to get to marketable, approved driverless robotaxis that it's not an investable opportunity.

(FWIW, I do not have PhDs in biology and physics, but I am quite capable of reading the literature and I do so)

agree on the timing aspect but not sure that matters ... Elon sets the bar high .... he has to ... this is tough stuff .... I disagree on the investment thesis ....just like any game changer we are only at the tip of the ice berg with this technology ... I missed out on facebook because i did not understand the power of the network it created .... and could not envision what it could become ... not making that same mistake with TSLA

 

[Krugerrand]

He didn't say that, he just poorly quoted @Artful Dodger saying that. (At least I think AD is who he was trying to quote.) Yep here it is:



And AD responded to your question about the definition here:

Well, I also asked @Drax7 if he quoted someone else since there was no indication that he did.

Thank you for being the someone to finally clarify that for me. Apologies to @Drax7.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

i would be curious to hear the counter arguments to those who disagree...preferably those who actually understand physics and biology at a PHD level ...

Why would physics or bio PhD be needed? This is computer vision; software and cognitive science are more relevant..

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

U.S. rejects Tesla bid for tariff exemption for Model 3 'brain' - Reuters

I wanted to reply on the article but not signing up for them. Tesla clearly stated at Autonomy day that the NN chip is being made/produced in Austin. This article is misinformed.

 

[mongo]

Isn't the new NN processor made by Samsung in its giant Austin TX fab?

I wanted to reply on the article but not signing up for them. Tesla clearly stated at Autonomy day that the NN chip is being made/produced in Austin. This article is misinformed.

That is just the die creation. It may be sliced and packaged overseas (very common occurrence, even for domestically created silicon).

Even if Austin does the full BGA process, the chip still needs to be assembled onto the PCB with the rest of the components to make the final brain.

 

[Zero CO2]

Why would physics or bio PhD be needed? This is computer vision; software and cognitive science are more relevant..

2 reasons ...and i am not sure about this ... understanding the human brain .. neural network is critical for the CNN and physics to understand the correct applications of LIDAR , Radar , vision , etc.... watch the Q/A at the end of the video ... I am a Mechanical Engineer by education and had my fair share of physics ... but Elon just blows me away with his physics accumemn

you have to get the fundamentals correct ... just like investing ... as you say computer science/statistics are also critical ... but I think the fundamentals are physics and biology

 

[azaz]

I think this is the important point. Robotaxis are a loooong way away. However, Tesla's "partial self driving" features are extremely far ahead of anyone else and getting further and further ahead. And lots and lots of people want them. The craving for a "self-driving car", even if it isn't 100% self-driving, seems to be really really common. People will pay top dollar for it. Even if they never reach the robotaxi apogee, most people will buy the partial self-driving feature, and they will pay more for it each year as it improves. It's going to be a very solid revenue stream.

Getting to that last "100 times better than a human" point where Tesla can afford to self-insure against any robotaxi crashes... knowing that juries will award the absolute maximum amount against any company whose automated system failed to be perfect in any obscure corner case.... that's going to take a very long time, longer than my investment horizon.

But does that matter? Maybe it matters if Tesla is dumb enough to start self-insuring totally driverless cars too early while they're only twice as good as humans or 10 times as good as humans, rather than waiting until they're 100 times as good as humans. But as long as they don't take on the unlimited liability risk, it probably doesn't matter... since Tesla will be making huge coin from selling the driver assistance features.

I know a lot of people -- bad drivers, frankly -- who would really love a car which drove itself 99% of the time, even if they were still required to take over (generally at low speed) to deal with wacky stuff like police verbal instructions and badly marked construction sites. They will pay a lot for a 99%-self-driving car, especially if the 1% is low-speed driving and occurs infrequently. A lot of the really deranged corner cases require low speeds or stopping anyway, so if the self-driving computer only knew enough to slow down and stop when it encountered them, it would be extremely attractive for these drivers.

From personal experience I can vouch this is exactly right. There is huge appetite for better AP that may not be a robotaxi but is 99% of the way there. I like Neroden am also a robotaxi skeptic but that doesn't mean there isn't tons of value

 

[Artful Dodger]

578,068 shares traded at 6:10 pm @ $255.03

Call Options secured.

 

[Navin]

One year later. I have likely aged 10 in the last year.

 

[AcesDealt]

The gaming side of me picked up on Friday 200 weekly contracts at 250 strike for the price of 1.39. If I unload those for 5+ this week I'll go ahead and get me a p3d . Someone has to keep them in business. Wish me luck.

Ironically this gamble is on hoping for some expression of financial maturity and derisking by the company this week. That drop last week was a bit like a 'get the Treasury secretary on the phone' moment. Not an advice.

 

[ZeApelido]

2 reasons ...and i am not sure about this ... understanding the human brain .. neural network is critical for the CNN and physics to understand the correct applications of LIDAR , Radar , vision , etc.... watch the Q/A at the end of the video ... I am a Mechanical Engineer by education and had my fair share of physics ... but Elon just blows me away with his physics accumemn

you have to get the fundamentals correct ... just like investing ... as you say computer science/statistics are also critical ... but I think the fundamentals are physics and biology

I have a mechanical engineer degree, biomedical engineer phd, and do deep learning work. And I have no effing clue when FSD is going to be achieved.

 

[AlMc]

Do not share info when working at Tesla: Here's the email Tesla sent employees telling them to stop leaking info

 

[SPadival]

These "investor calls" where Tesla management discloses material information to a select few investors and doesn't make it public are totally illegal. They violate Reg FD.

Where's the SEC?

(I know, in the pocket of Wall Street crooks.)


------
There were definitely material statements, including that Model Y location decision is next week; that if it's at Fremont, they'll expand the south paint shop; that Model S/X orders in Q1 were weak because news of the refresh leaked; that Panasonic has not reached full capacity yet; that they're lining up other cell suppliers in China.

And that's what we got from the notes from the short-seller. We have no idea if they made other material statements.

This is illegal.

This was discussed in the ER CC

James Hatfield on Twitter

Same for the others

Rob Mauer has a bit on the investor call in his Tesla Daily Podcast:

Increased Capital Raise, Details from Investor Call (05.03.19)

This thread has officially become a snake eating its own tail .. Rob (where do you get the time to scroll through this cesspool??) was quoting my post on this very thread!!

 

[AMN]

What color are you getting?

 

[AMN]

Oh, and haha YAS to a new Model X Performance because Elon needs jet fuel money.

 

[AcesDealt]

What color are you getting?

Timely question. I'm engaged in an epic struggle right as we speak. After all this time I never developed a strong preference. I think blue or midnight silver, probably white interior. Gonna have to get off the web and do some field recon I think to know for sure.

 

[capster]

Had a chat with a mentor and friend about Tesla today and he asked about the rising risk profile on Tesla and concerns about the stock overall. These were my thoughts:

The current risks (that he mentioned):
1. Departing Board Members
2. Outside looking view of change in Autonomous Driving (or "Robotaxis")
3. Slumping sales
4. Federal Tax Credit Ending
5. Increasing Competition
6. Quality Issues
7. Support Problems
8. Logistic Issues
9. Convertible Bonds raise of $2.7B

Other risks (I mention):
10. Macro factors: recession looming
11. Side effects on Automotive market due to Tesla effect
12. Labor effects on Automotive market and negative sentiment effect
13. No effect on global temp change due to Tesla push
14. Resource crunch due to hindrance by negative forces

Headwinds (2019):
1. China Gigafactory Completion in May
2. Buffalo Gigafactory Ramp-up in Q2
3. Reduced cost to operate for Automotive
4. Increased sales of FSD (baked in to Automotive Sale)
5. New paid software features
6. Multiple quarters of positive new cash flow (thus, incorporation of Tesla into S&P 500)

Considerations:
* Is climate change real? If agreed upon yes, then entire entire energy consumption to usage lifecycle needs to be rethought towards renewables
* How much is Automotive and Energy Consumption+Usage Utility Market worth? Both are $3T markets (Tesla is tackling both)
* Is Tesla the primary leader in the new market? I'd say yes based on demand and execution.
* Will Tesla continue to be the primary leader going forward? I'd say yes because they have the best lead and they're moving faster. With even better products likely to be built off of great design and data.
* What does a market leader generally comprise of in market share? Anywhere between 10-50%.

With all of those laid out (I'm sure I missed some), the simple investment question is, "do you believe climate change is real?". I've believed yes since 2009 and wanted to see someone executing on fixing the problem. I've learned that it's not just a problem to fix, but an innovation cycle that will make things better. Tesla is a safe bet, as long as it has cash, to become gigantic...anywhere from a $600B -> $3T market cap even though it's sitting on ~$45B today. If you take a 5-10 year view out and look at the situation, I'd say Tesla is in the 3rd-4th inning of a fight to completely replace our energy consumption and usage + transportation lifecycle [ECUT Lifecycle] against the incumbents that have spent the better part of 100+ years owning it and established companies, organizations, and national powers around it. This all likely affects a lot of people...

...so, you're essentially betting that Elon Musk and Tesla (and everyone that works and/or roots with/for them) is there in order to fix one question: is climate change real? If so, then that means the likelihood of the entire human civilization being wiped out is possible. It's very ...extraordinary and the stakes sound really dire and out of a comic book. Though, that's the situation that we seemingly seem to be in. From the risks you outline, the Tesla strategy is to replace the world's ECUT Lifecycle and needs to use the current methodology to do so in order to deliver cars and new utilities in a situation where the weather is against you (e.g. Puerto Rico). So, slumping sales, volatility of board members, "quality issues", and "support issues" can be characterized by worldwide strategy being implemented to ECUT products around the world from only a 42B company. Also, this is undercutting sales of other very large companies as we see in US April auto sales (most unsold ever). How do you deal with this situation other than keeping on pushing forward in the 3rd-4th inning rather than throwing up your hands and saying, "oh *sugar*, this is too much and too many problems to deal with!". I think that's where Robotaxis have come in.

Tesla's vision since 2015 has incorporated this concept due to huge under-utilization of the concept of the car of 5% of time being used for driving and the rest just sitting around doing nothing in a parked state. I believe Tesla's going to find out just how much that utilization rate can be increased by deploying the Robotaxis (maybe 1st in Norway) and seeing how profit margins can increase. It's incorporated into the design of the car/vehicle itself with 1M miles as a design constraint. With every % increase in utilization, the less cars need to be sold (out of the 98M annual car worldwide sales market). We're in this massive innovation change and we're all a part of it at this point to make sure climate change is averted now that most of the world (and hopefully the entire world) understands that it's real.

Anyways, probably missed some points, but that's what I can come up with off the top of my head. Am I missing anything?

For an investor, there are multiple dimensions to the climate change "question":

* How big, bad, and soon are we talking? Worst case, we are already in the midst of a phase change (Hopf bifurcation) in the climate system with a rapid (order of a few decades) transition from one stable oscillatory regime (which we like) to another (which maybe isn't so nice). Bad events begin to drive sentiment sooner rather than later and with more force because people feel the effects. My heart goes out to those affected by Cyclone Fani.

* How much sentiment to buy cars from Tesla or otherwise help them succeed derives from the obstructionism of the fossil fuel based industries?

* The current return of "Great Power Geopolitics" will likely be exacerbated by climate change and its sequelae (e.g. economic destabilization and migration are already amongst the defining challenges of this century). A strong position in BEV's will be quite advantageous to any nation going forward (think about it).

So, yeah, each Tesla share is a golden ticket.

BTW, regarding current risks number 5: "Increasing competition" almost certainly won't materialize till 2023 at the earliest because nobody can buy back lost time.

 

[imherkimer]

I have some dry powder. Should I buy TSLA or wait for the uber IPO? I'm already kicking myself for missing Pinterest and BYND.

Buy TSLA