Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Words of HABIT]

The first time when Elon mentioned this number he said "the all-in cost is $38k".

Correct, although Tesla is not there yet as the statement includes the word should which I have bolded from the Tesla F'19 Q1 Report:

A custom-made robotaxi capable of running about a million miles using a single battery pack, with all the sensors and computing power for full autonomy, should cost less than $38,000 to produce. We believe low vehicle cost, low maintenance cost and an expected powertrain efficiency of 4.5 miles per kWh should make this the lowest cost of ownership, and to be the most profitable autonomous taxi on the market.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So what other car can you plug in a USB drive to?

Fire Away!

You mean like put music on a stick and then stick it in your car? That’s how we listen to tunes in our 2015 smart ED convertible.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Either way they are not selling cheap robotaxis- that simply doesn’t make sense.

Agree, however Tesla sold robotaxis would still be making profit on every mile driven on the Tesla Network for the life of the car.

 

[elasalle]

.

I love how 'funny' and 'disagree' basically exist for people with low analytical skills to express their emotional discomfort. If you sorted this forum by 'most disagrees' you'd get a surprisingly high number of posts that were accurate and insightful in the long run and just happened to violate dogma at the time.

And that's not hard, since the dogma here has been uber-bullish while reality has been that TSLA is one of the worst 5 year stock picks possible in this bull market.

Nice timing on making the correct statement

 

[Fact Checking]

Excerpts from a pay walled interview with Baillie Giffords' James Anderson

"it was unfortunate that Musk made a point of saying there would be a million Tesla robo-taxis on the road in a year."​

It is very unfortunate that James Anderson believes this, because Elon never made such a claim: he said there would be around one million FSD capable Teslas on the road by the end of 2020, which is likely to happen.

The "capable" is a key qualifier ...

Very weird interview.

 

[bdy0627]

There's no evidence that there is demand for 10k M3 per week. The current lease pricing suggests that demand closer to half of 10K.

If they can make the M3 in China for $25K,and China wants a sedan, then perhaps they can make 10K or more.

What supports your statement that current lease pricing suggests global demand is about 5,000/week model 3? I don't know anything about leasing vehicles so I'm curious what you are using to make that leap.

 

[AlMc]

Time Frame: 8 Years

I just made up a quick chart from a couple of my holdings over the last 8 years. (Tesla did not exist for a 10 year chart so I picked '8'). Over that period I am very happy with TSLA.

Now, I admit the last 5 years shows a different picture (below). But if you are a long term holder...and/or been willing to adjust your holdings to remain a constant 'percentage' of your overall holdings on a yearly basis you have done pretty well.

Time Frame 5 year

 

[Fact Checking]

And i'll say this is untrue. I have an extensive music collection that plays flawlessly on my Model 3 sound system. The music resides in the memory of my iPhone - the same one used to unlock and remotely control the car. Why would I want to have to duplicate and maintain/sync this collection on a separate dedicated off-line memory device? That is an exceedingly poor implementation IMHO. It would bother me not at all if the USB music feature was removed entirely and its software support reallocated to other priorities.

Edited for clarity.

The counter argument of @neroden in a previous discussion was FLAC support for better music quality, which I find dubious: double blind listening tests by golden ear experts couldn't reliably identify 128 kbit vs. 256 kbit high quality encoded compressed music, so I consider insistence on FLAC to be an unscientific audiophile superstition that is wasting storage space, unless proven otherwise.

It's also not necessarily just a software problem, but a legal problem as well: various audio formats are heavily patent encumbered, in a geographically varied fashion, and the open source playback libraries and tools often don't have explicit licenses but have to rely on fair use exceptions and the disinterest of patent holders to small players. It's much safer for Tesla to just rely on the phone maker and web radio provider to sort out playback and licensing.

But yes, the permanently broken state of USB storage music playback would be a minus point for anyone who relies on it. I do think it's a roughly 0.1% of Tesla customers, shrinking as rapidly as the number of tracks you can still buy on CD and rip to FLAC.

 

[Unpilot]

Elon's marketing promises and the bizarre and comically bad belief that a hardware chip means anything.

Some clarity please.....If you want people to believe your a cold blooded analyst....you don't post such drivel.

The hardware chip you seem to be saying means nothing may prove to be worth much more than your analysis.

 

[SPadival]

It is very unfortunate that James Anderson believes this, because Elon never made such a claim: he said there would be around one million FSD capable Teslas on the road by the end of 2020, which is likely to happen.

The "capable" is a key qualifier ...

Very weird interview.

He has been misinformed by the media, as usual. Elon shouldn’t put himself in a position where the media twists his words.

James Anderson is a pretty sensible guy - he is aware of short seller shenanigans and media’s role in it.

James Anderson: ‘vicious’ short sellers are Tesla’s big problem, not Elon Musk

Edit: It’s good to see him reiterate full support in any future capital raise

We have said in discussions with Tesla that, if they decided to raise capital, we would understand it and be prepared to back it, which remains the case.

 

[Unpilot]

Took my MS on a 1000 mile trip stopping at the Southern Indy and Louisville SC station's.
I had gotten the update to allow 150 kW charge rate
Arrived at Indy at about 35% charge and was getting 144 kW of charge.
At the Louisville station I got about the same. In both places IF I was trying a "cannonball run" type of trip It would have saved me time for sure as I used to only get around 118 kW at the Indy one. But I got some coffee stretched my legs and relaxed a bit.

AP was working well....still needs some quirks worked out. The get out of a passing lane when on NOA is 80% making the right choices...but 20% of the time it will get back in the driving lane behind a clearly slower car or truck.

All in all I see improvements in each version of AP.

Looking forward to the new HW3 chip for sure.

 

[VValleyEV]

I gave the above a disagree, because when something so basic and simple to fix as not being able to listen to one's own music collection in one's car (the second most expensive purchase one makes), then it really is a poor advice to just say: "Take your money elsewhere".

I have to ask: why go through all that trouble and hassle of populating a USB stick with your music when you can use Bluetooth from your smartphone? I am guessing it is because with USB you can use the touchscreen and voice controls from the car. If so maybe Tesla effort would be better for them to better integrate with bluetooth devices. And also add Spotify to the USA vehicles.

I believe there is investor discussion relevance here, because the car needs to attract and hold those who have a large music library and expect a convenient way to access it all at least as well as in other vehicles, while still hanging onto the wheel (for this year anyway, I suppose).

I have a huge amount of music available to my iPhone using Apple Music, some of it downloaded and some not, pretty nice interface, and also have a premium Spotify account. But using either one means hands off the wheel to set up a playlist and hit go then hands off again when it reaches end or I change my mind, so means almost never and sticking with Slacker or TuneIn.

I agree a better interface for ease of access to home music library would be of real value, and current Tesla offering does not do as good a job at that as CarPlay or AndroidAuto. I used to wish that Tesla supported one of those, but now I am not so sure. Those things work well in an infotainment system that is very generic, with very little car-specific support, like most gasoline OEM vehicles that are not really software-based. Tesla’s software system is very Tesla-specific and for good reason. For just one example of likely many, you want the Tesla supercharging stations and info about them and your charge state integrated tightly into the map and navigation system, not just a generic google or apple maps. Giving up all or a big piece of screen real-estate and control to a generic smartphone interface would give up too much of that.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Tesla certainly knows, as they have called me in the past to encourage me to vote my shares, and mine are just through a broker...

Tesla can find out who owns their shares by asking DTCC and the brokers for the information. Third parties, e.g. someone attempting to take over a company or nominate different directors, can do the same.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Nobody will buy a Tesla because it handles music on USB sticks well, and nobody will not buy a Tesla because it doesn't

I think the larger point is either do the feature well, or don't do it at all. If Tesla is going to support USB music, they should go the extra mile and make it a good experience for those who use it. If not, why bother having the feature at all?

 

[Prunesquallor]

The counter argument of @neroden in a previous discussion was FLAC support for better music quality, which I find dubious: double blind listening tests by golden ear experts couldn't reliably identify 128 kbit vs. 256 kbit high quality encoded compressed music, so I consider insistence on FLAC to be an unscientific audiophile superstition that is wasting storage space, unless proven otherwise.

It's also not necessarily just a software problem, but a legal problem as well: various audio formats are heavily patent encumbered, in a geographically varied fashion, and the open source playback libraries and tools often don't have explicit licenses but have to rely on fair use exceptions and the disinterest of patent holders to small players. It's much safer for Tesla to just rely on the phone maker and web radio provider to sort out playback and licensing.

But yes, the permanently broken state of USB storage music playback would be a minus point for anyone who relies on it. I do think it's a roughly 0.1% of Tesla customers, shrinking as rapidly as the number of tracks you can still buy on CD and rip to FLAC.

Good point. I definitely no longer have golden ears, so I forgot the old compressed quality debate. The USB thing reminds me of when I had a 20-disc CD-player in the trunk.

Anyway, this has veered OT (as if that means much these days). My point was that using the USB playback software as an indicator of Tesla's overall software quality is probably not valid.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

using the USB playback software as an indicator of Tesla's overall software quality is probably not valid.

while that may be true, I personally think it reflects on the culture of the company and whether they are content with "good enough" or do they strive to make the customer experience as great as they possibly can? And what other parts of the software organization share this attitude? That's my concern when I see the sub optimal state of the music player in general.

 

[dww12]

I gave the above a disagree, because when something so basic and simple to fix as not being able to listen to one's own music collection in one's car (the second most expensive purchase one makes), then it really is a poor advice to just say: "Take your money elsewhere".

Well, most of my music is in Amazon. Once the web browser plays sound, has tabs and remembers passwords it’ll be done. As it is now I play through the Amazon app on my phone. When it’s on the screen it will be perfect. Genres, playlists, buy music. Don’t like Amazon, use whatever web based subscription you have.

 

[Pezpunk]

The counter argument of @neroden in a previous discussion was FLAC support for better music quality, which I find dubious: double blind listening tests by golden ear experts couldn't reliably identify 128 kbit vs. 256 kbit high quality encoded compressed music, so I consider insistence on FLAC to be an unscientific audiophile superstition that is wasting storage space, unless proven otherwise.

Weekend OT ....

Total BS. I’m no audiophile, but I am a musician, and it is *trivially* easy to tell the difference between 128 and 256 kbps, particularly on tracks where the sound is either highly saturated or low in the mix. It depends a lot on the type of music, but on multitracked wall-of-sound guitar based punk rock like the Ramones, the compression decides to muddy the high hat to the point it sounds like it’s under water. and some things that are very low in the mix disappear entirely. I don’t need a double-blind study to tell me what my own ears can hear with absolute clarity. There is no placebo effect here.

For the record, most of my collection is 192 kbps — it’s a huge jump in quality. I doubt I could reliably discern 192 from 256. But convincing me that 128 is good enough is just a complete non-starter. I can plainly tell instantly, and I’m not even all that picky.

 

[Hock1]

LTSE would need to be ubiquitous with foreign investments for TSLA to move (example: Canadian RRSP, TFSA, etc.) or need not apply. All existing NASDAQ shareholders would need to be portable. If so, LTSE may be well suited for TSLA listing to reduce short interest. More information is needed.

I've read an LTSE discussion blog extensively and I see nothing that would indicate that the short selling rules would/will be any different from the current rules on the major US exchanges. I.e., the so-called "market makers" will continue to be able to sell non-existent shares short, and do it on down-ticks. Manipulation will continue and might even be worse on the LTSE, since it would be a new exchange and presumably have less liquidity, at least at first.

 

[lascavarian]

while that may be true, I personally think it reflects on the culture of the company and whether they are content with "good enough" or do they strive to make the customer experience as great as they possibly can? And what other parts of the software organization share this attitude? That's my concern when I see the sub optimal state of the music player in general.

It is not of over-riding importance at this point IMO. But down the road when there are millions of Tesla vehicles in service, then the vehicle becomes a sort of platform for the delivery of content in a unique captive way. Displays may become a treasured space that more than pays for itself.

Imagine an audience largely free of distractions in an every workday commute that will desire to have entertainment. What a wonderful audience to acquire by the millions.