Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

I have been thinking how the day regulators, developers, and the public unanimously decide "FSD has been achieved". How is this suppose to work?

I am wondering how any company besides Tesla having any authority on the matter? When you only have 10 million or 15 million miles to show for, how can this data be used to determine safety and completion when Tesla can just give regulators 10-20 billion miles to look at?

I mean in the grand scheme of things, having 10 million miles of safety record compared to 20-30 billion is like me in my car with my hands off the wheel for 10 seconds and claim I have achieved autonomous driving because during those 10 seconds I had zero crashes.

And if regulators tell Waymo "I need at least 1-5 billion real world miles in order to tell us how safe your FSD really is"...how will they achieve that if it took them 10 years to hit 10 million miles?

 

[TradingInvest]

On TSLA's return for past 5 years or 8 years, I want to add that before 2018, Elon said a few times publicly that he doesn't think Tesla deserve the valuation at the time. But with M3 mass production and FSD on its way, Elon is saying TSLA should worth 10x current valuation. That's an important change buried by all noises.

Those who are new to investment, remember margin can hurt you a lot. Many people get into margin when they think 10X 20X for sure is coming, then they lose them all in a recession.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Elon Musk's Hefty Anti-LIDAR Gamble Undermines Tesla Chances Of Survival

Forbes FUD based on the premise that the contrarian is generally wrong. Everybody else is using lidar, therefore Tesla not using it is probably wrong.

Fails to discuss the issue that to solve self driving you must solve vision, and if you have solved vision, lidar is a useless appendage.

Further, even if Tesla lose the FSD race, survival is not at stake. The winner, should it not be Tesla, will pay handsomely for a million mile lowest cost per mile vehicle.

Ha, he just sets up a bunch of straw men to knock down. The reason to use radar was never a temporary stopgap until camera’s could work. It uses a wavelength that can cut through common obstructions that cameras can’t see through. And the reason to use radar over LiDAR has nothing to do with cost and everything to do with the fact that LiDAR has none of those benefits.

The guy has no idea what he’s talking about. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised when he says LiDAR uses “lasers combined with radar”

 

[AudubonB]

To clarify this a bit, monopolies are perfectly legal. But with monopoly status in one area comes the obligation not to abuse that position in a different area. This was the basis of the Sherman Anti-trust Act in the late 1800s. ("anti-trust" -> "we trusted you not to abuse your power" ).

The case I'm most familiar with was the breakup of AT&T. They had an effective monopoly on all telephone services, but they (allegedly) abused that in two ways: 1. They got into the computer industry, selling their own computers and the Unix operating system, and 2. they had an effective monopoly on "the last mile", the wires going into homes and businesses, and used that to keep the long-distance business. Historical aside: how many of you knew that Sprint stands for "Southern Pacific Railroad Internal Networking Telephony"?

Another example was the "browser wars", where Microsoft had an effective monopoly on the operating system, and tried to make it impossible to remove Internet Explorer from the system, hurting other browsers. They didn't have to break up the company.

I would argue that Tesla isn't even close to having a monopoly position, even if you ignore non-BEV cars.

Having said that, if FSD is really the only truly usable self-driving technology (or even just dominates, say 90% of the self-driving cars), then insisting that owners can only rent out through Tesla's network would be a pretty clear restraint of trade action.

The answer to your question indisputably is "More than the number who knew that the real reason is because "Southern Pacific Internal Telephony" just didn't possess a certain je ne sais quoi.

 

[bhtooefr]

And that is why I am most excited about the semi truck. It racks up high number of mileages very quickly, the owners and the drivers of those machines would be Tesla sales with convincing evidence

Additionally, on one side, Semi longevity is going to be under a high DCFC duty cycle, therefore testing Tesla's battery durability claims in one way.

On the other side, it's going to be with high annual mileage, so the batteries won't have time to age out.

Better to put that capex toward Model 2, which will be a true world car. Bigger sales volume in China and in the EU than in the USA. And the Model 2 is unquestionably more important to the mission.

I don't think Model 2 exists.

From the Autonomy Investor Day, the $25k car is a variant of the Model 3 that cannot be manually driven.

 

[sundaymorning]

Elon Musk shows SpaceX's first internet satellites ready for launch

Looks like the first 60 starlink satellites are ready.

 

[Skryll]

Well if they did that, the owners of EVs will still have much higher bills for electricity then ICE drivers. And that electricity is taxed. The problem is that electric taxes are not designated for road repair, while gasoline taxes are. Of course that could be changed.

Like a base plus a per mile consumption style tax? Then we have to chase down proper mileage reporting etc, sounds messy.

Meanwhile retirees and other low mileage drivers would be unfairly penalized by a flat fee. They may stop buying cars, and just use taxis and their equivalents.

That sounded like a bad thing until you said they would stop buying cars and use taxis and equivalents, which is maybe actually a good thing? Higher utilization of the driving machine, call tesla robotaxi.

Lurking behind all of this is the fact that road damage is almost entirely due to large trucks. And that industry contributes to election campaigns and lobbies governments to spread a disproportionate share of taxes and fees to the drivers of cars.

Anti-tesla lobby loves to point out weight difference of EV compared to legacy gas car when trying to promote higher EV-specific fees. Tesla Semi is not going to make this any better I am afraid.

 

[powertoold]

And if regulators tell Waymo "I need at least 1-5 billion real world miles in order to tell us how safe your FSD really is"...how will they achieve that if it took them 10 years to hit 10 million miles?

Having a large fleet like Tesla's is incredibly important. They can easily iterate on new FSD versions in shadow mode, and then roll out the new versions with OTA updates... No one is anywhere close to achieving that.

 

[EVDRVN]

Like a base plus a per mile consumption style tax? Then we have to chase down proper mileage reporting etc, sounds messy.
That sounded like a bad thing until you said they would stop buying cars and use taxis and equivalents, which is maybe actually a good thing? Higher utilization of the driving machine, call tesla robotaxi.


Anti-tesla lobby loves to point out weight difference of EV compared to legacy gas car when trying to promote higher EV-specific fees. Tesla Semi is not going to make this any better I am afraid.

Perhaps they should not all the oil leaking from ICE vehicles as well.

 

[dqd88]

It does have to scare Toyota and Detroit if you want to transition the world to sustainable transportation instead of transitioning the global 1% to sustainable transportation.

Since Toyota doesn't even attempt a serious ground up BEV it doesn't scare Toyota. Toyota doesn't make very much money on Prius.

Prius was their greenwashing vehicle. Now, they are attempting that with Mirai.

It was never Musk goal to make Tesla a premium product but an ubiquitous product.

Tesla needed to start up top and work their way down because of a lack of capital and economies of scale.

Legacy OEMs are only going as fast as regulators make them. Tesla gives regulators ammunition in demanding ever cleaner vehicles. But this is indirect and slow at best.

When Elon talks of multiple Gigafactories in all markets and eventual market cap goals of $650B Plus he is talking past making Tesla an example for other OEMs to follow. He is talking about crushing some legacy OEMs and forcing others to transition to BEVs from the sight of peers collapsing. More sticks than carrots approach.

Detroit won't go all in unless there is profit to be had. It's just economics. Leaf/Bolt are bad case studies, no leverage effect there. Starting with premium, as Tesla has done, has moved the needle wayyyy more than Leaf/Bolt.

It comes back to economics at the end of the day. Sure it would be ideal, but until batteries/motors are cheaper than IC engines, it's just not feasible. It is feasible at premium level as buyers there will spend more. This was noted by Elon in a 2016 blog post.
Just think if all premium cars were EV and all mass market were hybrids. That would be huge progress.

Why build the Roadster? The world doesn't need it. But it will have a huge leverage effect because as Elon noted it will be a "smackdown" to all ICE. Proving that EV is superior in performance and safety is vital from a marketing standpoint. The Roadster is essentially a marketing campaign.

 

[mblakele]

Like a base plus a per mile consumption style tax? Then we have to chase down proper mileage reporting etc, sounds messy.

No, it’s easy and it’s being done.

https://www.propertycasualty360.com/2012/06/04/state-farm-offers-driver-discount-for-verified-odometer-readings/

Besides self-reporting, insurers may get data from cell phones, oil change shops, smog checks, etc. The state could follow suit.

Tesla could do it even more easily, reporting OTA.

Anti-tesla lobby loves to point out weight difference of EV compared to legacy gas car when trying to promote higher EV-specific fees. Tesla Semi is not going to make this any better I am afraid.

Weight could and should be part of an odometer-based road tax. In the long run this would be good for Tesla.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't think Model 2 exists.

From the Autonomy Investor Day, the $25k car is a variant of the Model 3 that cannot be manually driven.

Here Elon's quote from the 2018 AGM:

"Audience Question: "I wanted to ask is there going to be a time, you know, perhaps in the next few years, and Tesla's going to produce compact and/or subcompact vehicles. Such a huge segment, and it seems like that would be necessary to fulfill the Master Plan - Part Deux mandate."

Elon Musk: "Yeah, I think we'll do a compact car in less than five years. Yeah."​

That's the proposed Tesla that people are referring to as the 'Model 2' or the $25K car. Here's a video of the Q&A session at the 2018 AGM (listen to the first question asked):

Again, my hot-take last June was that the $25K 'Model 2' is a shot across the bow to VW, Toyota, et.al: "Either get some quality small EVs on the market within 5 years, or Tesla will move down into that Market too and eat your lunch."

Now, I think Elon does it no matter what other car makers do. An autonomous compact car would be the killer TaaS app in many congested cities in Europe and SE Asia. I can't see Elon ceding that market to anyone else.

Cheers!

 

[EVNow]

I have been thinking how the day regulators, developers, and the public unanimously decide "FSD has been achieved". How is this suppose to work?

I am wondering how any company besides Tesla having any authority on the matter? When you only have 10 million or 15 million miles to show for, how can this data be used to determine safety and completion when Tesla can just give regulators 10-20 billion miles to look at?

I mean in the grand scheme of things, having 10 million miles of safety record compared to 20-30 billion is like me in my car with my hands off the wheel for 10 seconds and claim I have achieved autonomous driving because during those 10 seconds I had zero crashes.

And if regulators tell Waymo "I need at least 1-5 billion real world miles in order to tell us how safe your FSD really is"...how will they achieve that if it took them 10 years to hit 10 million miles?

The way it will work in US is - self regulation. As the Florida law shows, minimal legislation that just makes the company liable for any accidents. Assumption being no company wants bad publicity and millions in law suits so they won’t operate a FSD car unless they are ready.

 

[jhm]

BTW, every 50th motor vehicle sold in the US in April 2019 is a Tesla.

Edit. I'm a little off on my scope here.

U.S. Auto Sales Brand Rankings – April 2019 YTD | GCBC
April 2019 – The Best-Selling Cars In America – Every Car Ranked | GCBC
In April, 2019, Tesla sold 11,925 vehicles out of 908,988 autos sold in US that is 1.31% market share. But out of all cars 323,805 total, Tesla sold 10,875 (Model3 and Model S), a share of 3.36% of the US car market. Not sure how the 2.0% number got stuck in my head, but depending on how one wants to scope the market Tesla has 1.31% of all US vehicles or 3.26% of US cars for April. Year to date, the shares would be 1.17% of all us autos and 2.87% of US cars.

 

[Fact Checking]

Anti-tesla lobby loves to point out weight difference of EV compared to legacy gas car when trying to promote higher EV-specific fees. Tesla Semi is not going to make this any better I am afraid.

JFYI, the Tesla Semi has similar weight to comparable Class 8 trucks, which is ~17,000 lbs plus 200-300 gallon of fuel which is another 1,400-2,100 lbs of weight: a modern tractor trailer can easily weigh ~20,000 lbs.

Diesel engines, the steel chassis to distribute all that force plus fuel weighs a lot.

That the Tesla Semi is going to weigh too much has been a TSLAQ lie from day 1.

 

[RobStark]

Detroit won't go all in unless there is profit to be had. It's just economics. Leaf/Bolt are bad case studies, no leverage effect there. Starting with premium, as Tesla has done, has moved the needle wayyyy more than Leaf/Bolt.

It comes back to economics at the end of the day. Sure it would be ideal, but until batteries/motors are cheaper than IC engines, it's just not feasible. It is feasible at premium level as buyers there will spend more.

Detroit can make the economics happen by building Gigafactories and tooling to make 1M BEV trucks per year. They chose not to. GM and Ford decided to collaborate on 9 speed front wheel drive transmissions and 10 speed rear/all wheel drive transmissions to increase economies of scale. They can do the same with BEV components as MB and BMW seem to be negotiating as we speak.

Elon will get there first.

 

[RobStark]

BTW, every 50th motor vehicle sold in the US in April 2019 is a Tesla.

Edit. I'm a little off on my scope here.

U.S. Auto Sales Brand Rankings – April 2019 YTD | GCBC
April 2019 – The Best-Selling Cars In America – Every Car Ranked | GCBC
In April, 2019, Tesla sold 11,925 vehicles out of 908,988 autos sold in US that is 1.31% market share. But out of all cars 323,805 total, Tesla sold 10,875 (Model3 and Model S), a share of 3.36% of the US car market. Not sure how the 2.0% number got stuck in my head, but depending on how one wants to scope the market Tesla has 1.31% of all US vehicles or 3.26% of US cars for April. Year to date, the shares would be 1.17% of all us autos and 2.87% of US cars.

There are no GM or Ford vehicles on the list as GCBC is not doing estimates.

So we only get accurate market share percentages after complete quarters, not after 1st or 2nd months of a quarter.

 

[pyromatter]

 

[bhtooefr]

Notice of Effectiveness

Looks like a notice of effectiveness was filed on Friday, regarding the file number under which some of the Maxwell tender offer documents have been filed under.

Not sure what this means in this context, but I feel like it's worth noting.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Here Elon's quote from the 2018 AGM:

"Audience Question: "I wanted to ask is there going to be a time, you know, perhaps in the next few years, and Tesla's going to produce compact and/or subcompact vehicles. Such a huge segment, and it seems like that would be necessary to fulfill the Master Plan - Part Deux mandate."

Elon Musk: "Yeah, I think we'll do a compact car in less than five years. Yeah."​

That's the proposed Tesla that people are referring to as the 'Model 2' or the $25K car. Here's a video of the Q&A session at the 2018 AGM (listen to the first question asked):

Again, my hot-take last June was that the $25K 'Model 2' is a shot across the bow to VW, Toyota, et.al: "Either get some quality small EVs on the market within 5 years, or Tesla will move down into that Market too and eat your lunch."

Now, I think Elon does it no matter what other car makers do. An autonomous compact car would be the killer TaaS app in many congested cities in Europe and SE Asia. I can't see Elon ceding that market to anyone else.

Cheers!

When people ask Elon Musk if they'll do <something good>, he answers yes. So, I'd take his comment with a pinch of salt.