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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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OT :
Sorry I guess I sorta missed that, that does not sound so attractive either doe it? You still need to have a manufacture partner to modify the production line to produce those "special version" cars, a pretty big hurdle for scaling up.

Even then the upfront cost would be more than $30k per car on the conservative side. they definitely have to subsidize those leases to have takers. pretty iffy in my mind.
Yes, they have to be subsidized leases.

Waymo is building a factory to convert cars - they say about 80k (not sure by when or whether it is annual). So, we shouldn't be surprised if they do this at some point of time - if they determine that they need much more varied data from a lot more cars on the road.

Waymo picks Detroit factory to build self-driving fleet by mid-2019
 
Not sure if this is useful information but I’ve been seeing a ton of newly-registered Teslas around Los Angeles the last few weeks.

This is noteworthy to me because in the past I saw zero of these cars until the end of the quarter when they’d all flood in. This might be an indicator that Tesla is finally smoothing out the EOQ delivery mess.
 
OT :

Yes, they have to be subsidized leases.

Waymo is building a factory to convert cars - they say about 80k (not sure by when or whether it is annual). So, we shouldn't be surprised if they do this at some point of time - if they determine that they need much more varied data from a lot more cars on the road.

Waymo picks Detroit factory to build self-driving fleet by mid-2019
Those conversion is to add the big arse hat on top, a much easier approach than installing hidden cameras.

I doubt many people would want to own or even lease those.
 
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Semi-OT, but Tesla brand/valuation related.
People who think demand has peaked are very much wrong. If people still don't even know about the cars, or where to buy them, that's a huge pool of untapped customers.

And a huge number of reasons to begin some targeted advertising to tap that pool.
 
No offense to your friend, but Maxwell is not a new battery chemistry, it's a new process for creating an material used in a current battery chemistry. It's evolutionary not revolutionary. Maxwell isn't even a battery company, they see a capacitor company. A leader in capacitors, but none the less, only a capacitor company. What they created was really stolen from their capacitor manufacturing process.

Certainly testing has to done and machines must be invented.. this is why Maxwell only appeals to Tesla. Tesla has the scale, has the manufacturing expertise with Ghromann and Perbix. And Tesla is not afraid to move quickly. Most importantly, Tesla has the demand, which drivers the scale.

No need to apologise, I don't agree with my friend most of the time, although I do have to respect his experience in the field and European science in general. I think the issue is that we don't have the details of the chemistry and process, if we did then he could make a more informed decision. It's also worth considering that Tesla and Maxwell have been in some form of partnership since 2016, so three years potential development/assessment time has already passed, ergo they could well be quite advanced.

It would also explain the reason Panasonic are holding on increasing the current lines - what's the point if they're about to be superseded with a better process?

All a lot of speculation, of course, but I believe this is game-changing technology that Tesla will bring market.
 
That's a good point. Roof damage is a major reason why home insurance is so costly. If Tesla is liable for solar roof damage anyway, it makes sense to take on home insurance. Do not sell solar roof to the areas that have frequent tornadoes or large hails.
Large hail could be ok. I just had roof replaced after golf-ball sized hail. Solar panels don't care/no damage.

I guess all the other reasons like fire, tornadoes, hurricanes, flooding, land slides still apply.
 
Not sure if this is useful information but I’ve been seeing a ton of newly-registered Teslas around Los Angeles the last few weeks.

This is noteworthy to me because in the past I saw zero of these cars until the end of the quarter when they’d all flood in. This might be an indicator that Tesla is finally smoothing out the EOQ delivery mess.

I counted a new one registered just 2 hours ago.

And that’s in my driveway alone!
 
Those complaints are silly. Let's take the absolute worst possible case where the 220 range drops to 110. Ok, well, most people commute less than 40 miles a day.

Cold weather range issues are ONLY a problem on long road trips. Not everyone takes those, they don't always happen in winter, and plenty of people have multiple cars.

I could see a scenario where the worst-case short-trip cold range hit actually matters, but it's a low priority for Tesla to solve (and they're working on it anyway): owners without home charging, using Superchargers, Destination Charging, and public J1772 in a gas station model.

(Tesla's working on it with the Urban Supercharger program.)
 
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And a huge number of reasons to begin some targeted advertising to tap that pool.
Yes, targeted web ads - that are also very cheap. Just to follow up with people who visit their site, search for Tesla on the web or Youtube etc.

ps : Everytime this comes up somehow people don't like the idea. I think people are confusing "demand" and actual sales. Ads are to convert existing demand to sales - more a sales tool than a demand gen. There is a nice post by @jhm in this thread on this.
 
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Also range drop isn't that much on long trips. Once the car, motor and battery are all warm, it doesn't take so much energy to keep them warm. I've taken long road trips in -20C, and range was about 20% less than summer. Preheating while still plugged in helps a lot.
I think the high speed of long trips can offset some of that savings. I know my range got hammered in wet roads with win and 15 degree weather this past winter. (P3D to be fair which already loses quite a bit with wheels). But either way, not a big issue.
 
Cold weather range issues are ONLY a problem on long road trips. Not everyone takes those, they don't always happen in winter, and plenty of people have multiple cars.
Multiple cars (aka An ICE vehicle is needed for full functionality) defeats the entire purpose of a BEV and brings every BEV down to the level of a commuter only car. The rest is correct.
 
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If you own an autonomous vehicle that you consider too ugly to be seen in, feel free to send it my way.
last time I checked nobody has autonomous vehicle yet. Waymo removed their safety drivers overnight?

ugly is the least of the problems, what about added cost because of weight and drag? if those cars are not EVs, how would the 12v battery deal with the computer? the list goes on.

Given all those, if you want an "autonomous" car, why don't you just get a Tesla?

And for those "autonomous" system to control the car's steering and acceleration, that is another big can of worm we haven't even begin to touch.

basically for waymo to "pivot" they pretty much has to do what Tesla has done, it is not easy for them consider they have no factory at all.
 
We get roofers at our door on AT LEAST a weekly basis, offering to “inspect” our roof and find damage from the recent “storm”, and have it fixed through insurance. The sheer number of people who apparently make a living off this is crazy.
I could live with only once a week.
 
In addition to a potentially easier and cheaper manufacturing process, I think a key benefit of Maxwell's technology is that the improved properties of their dry coated electrodes allow for new cathode and anode chemistries (with higher energy densities) which do not function adequately with electrodes manufactured using the traditional methods. I would guess the first generation of Maxwell electrodes would use Tesla's current cathode chemistry but a new anode chemistry, but it also sounds like they expect their dry electrodes to open up options for new cathode chemistries including cobalt free according to their ppt. Whether dry coated electrodes also have properties which will make solid state battery designs easier to commercialise i don't know - i don't see any reference to solid state in their materials other than the 2 words on their ppt.

From Maxwell's papers:
  • "results suggest that dry coated electrodes exhibit lower particle-to-particle contact resistance and charge transfer impedance, likely due to a uniform network of interconnects between binder and active material particles."
  • "The lower charge transfer and contact resistance in the dry coated electrode offer higher energy density cell designs with improved power capability."
  • "Maxwell’s dry coated battery electrode offers extraordinary benefits, including manufacturing cost reduction, elimination of solvent toxicity, enabling the application of liquid sensitive battery chemistries and enhancing cell performance, particularly at high loading weights when compared to conventional wet coated electrode in discharge rate studies."
  • "In addition to manufacturing flexibility, the cohesion and adhesion properties of electrodes derived from the dry process are superior in the presence of electrolyte at high temperatures compared to those produced using the wet coating technology."
  • "Maxwell’s DBE offers significantly high loading and produces a thick electrode that allows for high energy density cells without compromising physical properties and electrochemical performance"
  • "As a solvent-free process, the polymer binder is not dissolved; as a result, the binding mechanism is an inter-connecting network comprised of point-contacts with the active material particle surface. This dry binding structure is less obtrusive and, consequently, enables lithium ions better access to the active material particles. This feature is especially advantageous for high rate performance in high energy density electrodes."
  • "Various dry coated battery electrodes were fabricated, including NMC811, NCA, LFP, LTO, sulfur/carbon and silicon composite, using Maxwell’s dry coating electrode technology. Maxwell’s dry coating electrode technology can be used to produce advanced high capacity NMC811 cathode and silicon-graphite composite anode that can deliver designed discharge capacity."
From ppt: "Technology Enablement & Environmentally Responsible: No Solvents, Next Gen Materials, Cobalt-Free, Solid State "

It looks like Maxwell has another paper due out shortly with results from their pilot production plant:
Dry Processed Nickel-Rich Layered Transition Metal Oxide Cathode Electrode
  • "The benefits are lower CO2 emission, lower capex and opex cost, improved energy density and the ability to process moisture sensitive or reactive materials. "
  • "This paper will report the physical properties of nickel-rich layered dry cathode film produced at the lab and pilot production level and their electrochemical performance with coating loading of 30-40mg/cm2 per coating side, which is significantly heavier than a typical wet cast electrode in the range of 20-24mg/cm2per coating side in commercial high energy 18650 cell."

To be more clear, my guess is that the number one and quickest benefit of Maxwell’s technology is to allow for a thicker cathode layer and hence a higher active materials volume ratio and higher cell energy densities even with existing cathode chemistry.

The cathode energy density is generally the limiting factor in cell energy density so obviously increasing the % of cathode material in a cell is the easiest way to increase cell energy density. In fact I understand this has been the key driver of battery cell improvements over the past 20 years – “The gradual improvement in energy density over the last 20 to 25 years was mostly due to cell engineering, which has increased the volume ratio of active materials from ~20% in early Li-ion cells to ~45% in today’s state-of-art cells [7,8]. Thickening electrodes in cell stacks while making current collectors and separators thinner is one effective approach to continuously increasing the active material content for higher energy density and lowcost Li-ion batteries.” Understanding limiting factors in thick electrode performance as applied to high energy density Li-ion batteries (Journal Article) | OSTI.GOV

The problem with this simple approach is increasing cathode thickness beyond a certain amount can lead to underutilisation of the cathode materials and also lower power density. So you get diminishing returns and counterproductive effects after a certain thickness.

I think this is why the focus shifted to solid state batteries – lithium metal anodes have a much higher energy density so they allow for much thinner anode and hence a higher % of cathode in the overall cell (solid state can theoretically have other potential benefits like faster charge time, increased cycles, less flammable etc). The solid state electrolyte is mainly just there as requirement to safely manufacture lithium metal anodes.

It looks like Maxwell is increasing cathode thickness c.50% within the current 18650 cell design. So they must be reducing thickness of the electrolyte, anode or separators etc a corresponding amount (anode thickness reduction would require a new anode chemistry with higher energy density). If they manage to fully utilize the full thickness of this cathode material without adverse impact to power density, safety, cycle life etc, they should get a significant increase in cell energy density without changing the cathode chemistry while remaining viable for quick deployment in EVs.

I think Tesla’s battery breakthrough approach may end up looking very much like their Camera vs Lidar approach for Autonomy. Everyone else spends 5 years trying to bring Lidar costs down from $100k to $10k while Tesla gets further just using cameras which were $100 all along. Everyone else spends 5-10 years trying to commercialise new solid state battery designs while Tesla specs beat solid state just from iterating the current technology.

Also, I'm not a battery cell expert, i've only followed the tech for a while and read a bunch of papers, so someone correct me if any of this is wrong.
 
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Multiple cars (aka An ICE vehicle is needed for full functionality) defeats the entire purpose of a BEV and brings every BEV down to the level of a commuter only car. The rest is correct.
I disagree on that one. It is certainly preferable for a family with 2 ICE cars to replace one with an EV than it is for them to keep both ICE vehicles. Especially if said commuter car receives most of the mileage.
 
according to @ihors3, $TSLA shorting is just under 30% of float. Spring? check. Compressed? check. Released? Still waiting...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6oa_XhW4AEYugZ.jpg
D6oa_XhW4AEYugZ.jpg


...and again I'm left wondering what he thinks the float is. According to marketwatch it is 119.18 which results in short interest of 32.38%. Someone with a twitter account might ask for clarification?