Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dan Detweiler]

Yep. And when you asked what miss people where talking about, there’s is your answer.

So he misses on a statement of his own state of mind and that's justification for tanking the stock. Sure, makes sense to me. Certainly more relevant than any actual year over year numbers, or R&D developments. smh

Dan

 

[Pras]

Since TMC has gotten me quite a bit of helpful advice over the years, I just wanted to inform everyone that I expect to not post here for now.

With my Model 3 order cancelled and being fully invested in TSLA without any prospect of a profitable sale anytime soon, there is little point for me to spend time on TMC.

Good luck to all of you.

-Lars.

Lars Kr. Lundin on Twitter

As much as your experience is disappointing I think your reaction is little too much. For a mere $1k, you are changing a decision that you will have to stick with for a while. Most importantly you are missing that the car that is truly wonderful.

I have criticized Elon and management but the car is worth all the minor hiccups.

I hope you understand that the issue is not as big as you have felt it right upfront. Early adopters have faced much more challenging situations. Tesla avoids to honor specific cases because then they will have to honor so many such cases. Yours is a tow hitch, what about all the price changes that happened in china?

 

[humbaba]

As much as your experience is disappointing I think your reaction is little too much. For a mere $1k, you are changing a decision that you will have to stick with for a while. Most importantly you are missing that the car that is truly wonderful.

I have criticized Elon and management but the car is worth all the minor hiccups.

I hope you understand that the issue is not as big as you have felt it right upfront. Early adopters have faced much more challenging situations. Tesla is avoid to honor specific cases because then they will have to honor so many such cases. Yours is a tow hitch, what about all the price changes that happened in china?

This morning yet again I felt that I was driving the future. Yesterday a coworker asked me about my Tesla (mostly charging and performance).

Its all very conspiracy theoryish to talk about the forces arrayed against Tesla, and yet you have biased reporting by the NTSB, the NEC is changed to negatively impact EVs (somehow electrical vehicle supply equipment doesn't share risks with RV electrical supply), states are cranking up punitive EV registration fees, and so on.

All of the efforts for short term gains at the expense of humanity are sickening.

(I really wanted to write a positive comment, see how it started? but I guess today it is a bit hard)

 

[humbaba]

You are missing the point I was trying to make. This is not about whether a driver not using any assistive system would have been able to avoid this particular collision. This is just about perception. And the perception of this crash is this: driver of Tesla Model 3 gets killed when driving straight into crossing trailer without any avoidance manoeuvre (braking or swerving) applied as the top of the car gets sheared off; the car was being driven in AP mode at the time. These are the facts of the situation, and most people read them and see a causal link there. The fact that we are investors and therefore super-sensitive to any news related to Tesla - and particularly to the negative ones - doesn't mean that people who see that correlation are against the company. Would you expect the fact that the car was on AP to be somehow withheld? Do you feel that this detail is not relevant to the outcome of that event? If so, please understand that you have a positive bias towards the company and it's products, and are therefore not the best qualified to decide how this should be reported.

Think about this example: man dies of lung cancer at age 50; he had been a heavy smoker for the past 20 years. There is always a chance that his smoking habit is not exclusively responsible for him developing lung cancer (although it definitely didn't help), and the man simply had a high genetic predisposition to develop lung cancer. But most people would instantly see a causal relationship between those two facts. It's as simple as that.

I agree that any road accident that a Tesla is involved in is given disproportionate importance and journos (heh!) try hard in many cases to create a sometimes inexistent link to AP being active and malfunctioning, but this is not such a case.

So you are arguing that AP is perceived as magical and able to stop time or otherwise alter the laws of physics?

If your argument rests on people having a fantasy view of the world, well, I guess I can't really argue with that. I encounter examples of magical thinking quite frequently.

 

[ZachF]

I think Elon should announce that he may reconsider his policy on advertising...

Just saying that may slow the FUD down if journolos/pressitutes are looking at future advertising $$$$.

Then do a crowd-funded (with hats and swag) Superbowl commercial.

 

[LJS22]

I think it’s clear that Tesla is close to being the powerhouse of a company that Elon envisioned. People will likely look back on this year and think it was obvious what Tesla would become.

The key is maintaining investors long enough to see it come to fruition.

In the current climate getting rid of Elon would bump the stock up in the short term but his vision and drive is important for a company of this size. Elon would have bowed out by now if he didn’t see something big coming. If you’re investing in an Elon Musk venture then you know he’s going to fight until the very end, I would stick with him. He’s fueled by people telling him what he can’t do. I think he’s bothered that others continue to look short term for long term solutions.

 

[Tslynk67]

Do the longs here have a standard in terms of Covered Call writing strategies? When a stock is in a downtrend, one wise move is to write out of the money longer-term calls to capture some of the costs of the downtrend. I do hope you guys have had this strategy for some time this year in order to soften the blow a bit. Those under 100 shares in their accounts cannot do much of this unless their brokerage has allowed it.

I have no strategy on this and I'm not aware it has ever been discussed here - well covered calls, yes, but not in any specific context. There is a Tesla trading thread somewhere, might be stuff in there.

TBH I'm not personally comfortable with writing covered calls because Tesla is so volatile. It can rally as quickly as it drops and I could have my shares called-away at any time, which I don't really want. If you have ideas to persuade me otherwise then my mind is open.

 

[neroden]

I’m not going to enter at 22x as stated earlier in the week. Waiting for low 21x for the small position speculative entry. Well probably be able to get a high 18x or 19x not too far out where I’ll put more money to work. Sometimes waiting is the hardest part but finding the right entry yields much better returns.

Well, I'll take your advice. It is *absolutely ridiculous* that the stock is at this price and I may have to exceed my concentration limits if it gets down to the 180s.

 

[Alphacrux]

I have no strategy on this and I'm not aware it has ever been discussed here - well covered calls, yes, but not in any specific context. There is a Tesla trading thread somewhere, might be stuff in there.

TBH I'm not personally comfortable with writing covered calls because Tesla is so volatile. It can rally as quickly as it drops and I could have my shares called-away at any time, which I don't really want. If you have ideas to persuade me otherwise then my mind is open.

Sell short term covered calls + sell longer term puts at same time?

 

[shootformoon]

I’m confused. Let’s use a specific example of 5 years from now, since you referenced long term investors.

So in 2024 exactly how much difference will there be in the SP because Elon was over-optimistic about Enhanced Summon back in 2019?

I had similar view on 5 year long term. But now I realize a company's development is path dependent. Without short term step achievement, 5 year long term results will be realized, maybe, in 10 years and 70% of the time.

 

[neroden]

"Everyone" knows that it's going to be a roller coaster ride? Even the longs that have relentlessly mocked, shredded and ridiculed anyone asking legitimate questions around TSLA execution over the past 12 months in the investor forum? I have to kind of laugh at this post, sorry but I do.

I considered dipping in for 100 shares of TSLA during Oct/Nov price drops and did a little bit of research. Had legitimate questions around TSLA execution, # of reservations being converted into sales, cash burn rate, etc. People were completely flambeed for even suggesting that TSLA might need to do another cash raise. Laughed out of the room.

I was completely mocked and ridiculed by the longs here who were boasting at the time that they had more dry powder to buy at $320 and treated anyone who disagreed with their assessments as idiots.

Well the institutional investors are dumping their stock now so you are "right" that it's going to be a rocky couple of years. Hopefully the car I overpaid $60,000 for isn't going to be a worthless boat anchor when I go to swap it out in another few years or need parts for it, etc.

Looks to me like the Hog Negativity Index is at an all time high. For those who are paying attention to the actual *company*...

-- communications remain a problem, but are at least improving
-- service problems appear largely resolved apart from communications
-- production costs are clearly dropping
-- prices charged are rising
-- delivery problems appear largely resolved
-- we have poor insight into production problems
-- no, demand is not an issue, anyone who says that is an idiot

 

[neroden]

Like I reported yesterday the put options I had previously sold were exercised and I was forced to buy the stock at 420. My opinion is that this was not isolated but a strategy to cause multiple margin calls in retail forcing a huge dump of shares. I believe that is what we are seeing today, forced liquidations. Ordinarily I would say that if the shorts were smart they would start covering, but what the hell do I know about being smart with TSLA anyway? Should have bought puts after I covered the margin I guess....

Anyway this is probably an all out attempt to drive stock below 200 and trigger that famous margin call on Elon which I do not believe exists.

Oh, we worked it out. He gets margin called around $35/share, I believe.

 

[neroden]

Ah yes, anyone who is not a cheerleader is "here to depress others". Maybe you're the one who needs cheering up.

I'm here because TSLA stock price is cratering and institutional investors are dumping the stock. I do have a bit of interest that the very expensive car I bought would be affected if TSLA got into real serious financial trouble

It wouldn't be affected. Your service issues might actually improve if some other company took Tesla over.

but I'm cautiously optimistic that it won't come to that.

It won't come to that

I have multiple issues with my car that TSLA have failed to address and if they get into real trouble those issues will never be addressed.

Exactly backwards

 

[Chocochip]

So you are arguing that AP is perceived as magical and able to stop time or otherwise alter the laws of physics?

No, I am arguing that most people will not take the time or put in the energy to analyse in great detail things that they are not extremely interested in, but they will pick up fragments of information, whatever is easiest to digest, and form an opinion on the topic based on that. Do not expect the general public to carry out the same type of analysis that you just did, it's impossible.

I want you to think hard about some of the things you have an opinion on; not Tesla. Let's say, a certain politician, or athlete, or some other company that you have a passing knowledge on. Think about how much information you needed before you formed an opinion on that. Now, it doesn't mean you will never change your opinion on that if additional information is presented to you, but as things stand, you probably hold an uninformed and possibly wrong opinion on any number of topics.

The same goes for Tesla. Investors know that, and they know there's a chance a large segment of the population may be reticent in one year's time to jump into a Tesla robotaxi because "it kills people", an opinion formed by hearing about accidents such as this in the media, and so the potential revenue for the Tesla Network will therefore be lower than what it could have been without this accident. That's what perception is, and in those instances the reality becomes irrelevant. I understand your frustration, but do not simply decide that this is all a plot against Tesla, it's just how the world - and the market - works.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Am I as optimistic as the legion of koolaid drinkers around here? Nope... I'm a realist.

Okay, maybe you're just young and don't realize how offensive your name-calling is. Watch this and see what your offhand "Kool-Aid" reference connotes:

I'm not young, and my stomach turns when someone equates long-term investors with the last day of Jonestown death cult victims. Alternatively, maybe you're older than me and referencing LSD use by the Merry Pranksters. That ain't much better; it's still Name-Calling which is supposed to be against the rules here.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

I’m confused. Let’s use a specific example of 5 years from now, since you referenced long term investors.

So in 2024 exactly how much difference will there be in the SP because Elon was over-optimistic about Enhanced Summon back in 2019?

How much difference is there in the SP now, because Elon was over optimistic about the Model 3 ramp in 2016 and full autonomy in early 2017 (when it would be ready by 2018)?

5 years ago today, the price was $207.

 

[ZachF]

Looks to me like the Hog Negativity Index is at an all time high. For those who are paying attention to the actual *company*...

-- communications remain a problem, but are at least improving
-- service problems appear largely resolved apart from communications
-- production costs are clearly dropping
-- prices charged are rising
-- delivery problems appear largely resolved
-- we have poor insight into production problems
-- no, demand is not an issue, anyone who says that is an idiot

This is true, but unfortunately the market is in "Prove it" mode, and there isn't any real possible catalysts until delivery reports in... July.

 

[neroden]

If TSLA gets below $200 I might buy in before 3rd or 4th quarter earnings if they look like they might turn a profit. At this point there is no bottom and nothing that could continue to support share price.

You know, fundamentals of the company, that stuff... at some point it becomes obvious to enough buyers that the stock is a crazy good bargain. Below 180, I would say, certainly.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Frustrating time to be a TSLA long .... as much as I believe in Elon and the company I'm no fan of his emails. I think he could learn how to say the same thing and lessen the impact on the stock price although I realize that he's never ben the smoothest communicator.

For the time being TSLA is in the doghouse and I'm not seeing any real positive numbers that would turn this thing around in the near term .... so I'll just hold on tight and keep faith that they are making pretty incredible cars that are still without any real competition. But for the time being the optimism that once drove the SP higher seems to be gone .....

Cheers to the longs ....

 

[mtndrew1]

Looks to me like the Hog Negativity Index is at an all time high. For those who are paying attention to the actual *company*...

-- communications remain a problem, but are at least improving
-- service problems appear largely resolved apart from communications
-- production costs are clearly dropping
-- prices charged are rising
-- delivery problems appear largely resolved
-- we have poor insight into production problems
-- no, demand is not an issue, anyone who says that is an idiot

I am not an investor but my impression is that the street is fatigued by Elon/Tesla whiplash.

There has been an awful lot of drama over the last year and the signal can get lost in the noise. I see the noise as SEC, Model 3 ramp, Gigafactory uncertainty, staff turnover, pedo nonsense, Autopilot hyperbole, etc.

At this point I think the street wants hard numbers and evidence to bump stock prices; the days of Elon’s projections turning into higher TSLA are over.

If FSD really starts driving people cross country in December 2019 (31st, midnight, Elon time), Q2 and Q3 execute, Model Y development and deployment remain on track, Shanghai starts spitting out automobiles, Semi shows some life, and cash on hand stabilizes or improves I think there’s a huge potential upside.