Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[powertoold]

But why can't autopilot recognize a tractor trailer in front of it? It seems to me this would be a pretty easy thing to see and try to stop for. How long will it take AP to learn this? There will no FSD until it can overcome something this simple.

AP probably saw the truck initially, but the truck took so long to turn that AP didn't know when the truck's trailer ended.

 

[jerry33]

But why can't autopilot recognize a tractor trailer in front of it? It seems to me this would be a pretty easy thing to see and try to stop for. How long will it take AP to learn this? There will no FSD until it can overcome something this simple.

1. Because with the software that is currently shipping a tractor trailer looks a lot like an overpass. The new software, when released, appears as if it will fix this.
2. From reading other posts, and the picture posted, it appears there was one second of visibility as the truck sped into the intersection from behind some trees. I doubt it would matter what software or not was being used. The real safety for this kind of accident will be when FSD is installed on trucks.
3. It's very likely that the driver would have survived if regulations called for a side skirt as is required in other countries. Shame on our regulators.

 

[humbaba]

AP probably saw the truck initially, but the truck took so long to turn that AP didn't know when the truck's trailer ended.

or, AP recognized an obstruction followed immediately by impact because the semi driver was reckless and pulled out in front of traffic that had the right of way.

You have no factual basis for saying it did not recognize the semi -- what you do have is that AP was not able to prevent the collision. Which, given the facts in the NTSB preliminary report, I do not find surprising.

 

[KSilver2000]

At this point I think the street wants hard numbers and evidence to bump stock prices; the days of Elon’s projections turning into higher TSLA are over.

Those days are a distant memory. They’ve already been gone for a very long time. Can’t rmemeber the last time his projections turned TSLA positive.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Isn't part of the refresh people are expecting the updated interior with the landscape orientation display?

I imagine some are expecting that, but I think most were probably just holding out for some of the new tech we’ve seen in the 3 that hadn’t made it over to the S/X(improved drive units, some of the track mode stuff, improved charging speed, etc).

I don’t think there’s any indication that interior refresh was anything more than a one-off concept from a long time ago.

 

[hershey101]

I'm mostly invested in $TSLA at this point, with very little cash remaining to throw at it, but if it goes below $190, I'm going to be borrowing as much I possibly can to buy $TSLA. This is absolutely insane. At $185, the market cap would be <$34B, what it was back in 2013, when the Model S was barely in production, the X was a over-complicated beast, and no one believed the 3 would ever exist.

I think 1M cars/year is doable by 2022/2023. With an ASP of $45k and 20% Gross Margins, that would mean that Tesla would be trading at less than 1x 2023 sales, or somewhere in the low double digits (10x-12x) of 2023 EPS. That's absolutely insane!

 

[Silentk]

Took advantage of fire-sale prices to buy another 150 shares today, which is really a lot for me! Personally I am putting a lot of hope in the Energy side of Tesla, and I think I recall Elon himself saying that would end up being the larger part of Tesla, bigger than the cars. I may be wrong but it seems harder to FUD those products which either sit on the ground or on your roof without moving parts to crash. Just looking at the enormous savings in Australia (

) and other places it is easy to see the astronomical savings that stand to be made worldwide - before the domestic solar roofs have even started. Once those and the Powerwalls begin to ramp up....

What bothers me immensely is how positive news is being drowned out online. Before buying shares today I typed TSLA into Twitter - almost every single one of hundreds of tweets are negative. So - possible solution - if everyone on this forum opened a twitter account just to send one tweet a day with the TSLA hashtag and a positive link, car photo or comment, anyone surfing Twitter HAS to see some positive posts as well as negative ones. Maybe bring back a little balance. If I did not read this forum daily, I would have definitely been scared off by Twitter and other news headlines.

So thanks for all the educated input here, it has really helped. (Must admit the ignore button is pretty good too )

Go long and prosper - isn't that what the man said?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

This thread today is a real magnet again for concerned people whom I’ve never seen in this thread before

 

[durkie]

Do the longs here have a standard in terms of Covered Call writing strategies? When a stock is in a downtrend, one wise move is to write out of the money longer-term calls to capture some of the costs of the downtrend. I do hope you guys have had this strategy for some time this year in order to soften the blow a bit. Those under 100 shares in their accounts cannot do much of this unless their brokerage has allowed it.

Unfortunately the ideal times to trade options are completely counter-emotional to what you want them to be. Dips like this are the worst time to be selling covered calls since everything is down, even though this is when we all want to scrounge up as much of a silver lining as we can.

You can get more for your calls if you go longer-term, but you'll still be getting pennies on the dollar since options are leveraged on the way up and the way down.

This is an ideal time to be buying calls or selling puts, but it's hard to double-down when you're in damage control mode.

 

[EVNow]

But why can't autopilot recognize a tractor trailer in front of it? It seems to me this would be a pretty easy thing to see and try to stop for. How long will it take AP to learn this? There will no FSD until it can overcome something this simple.

Similar to what happened with MobileEye couple of years back. That accident basically ended Mobile Eye's relation with Tesla.

They should train the NN to distinguish between long trailers and overhead pass/bridge that can look somewhat similar. The new 3D model that they can build out of cameras should help too.

Ofcourse, doesn't excuse the atrocious way the driver used AP. He essentially started AP and didn't pay attention for the next 8 seconds are so (out of 10 seconds before crashing). He did this just before an intersection. All this while going at 65 mph. My guess is he might have started AP because he wanted to do something else ?

ps : I should note, this accident is entirely the fault of the truck driver. He took a turn without first checking to make sure the road was clear.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

But why can't autopilot recognize a tractor trailer in front of it? It seems to me this would be a pretty easy thing to see and try to stop for. How long will it take AP to learn this? There will no FSD until it can overcome something this simple.

How many times do you run across a tractor trailer going across a four lane limited access, divded highway? (This being the only environment for it's intended use at this time)

Dan

 

[pnungesser]

Absolutely correct on that one. Moreover, anyone who bought right after the 420 tweet, didn't do that because they believe in Tesla or its mission, but because they thought they were assured of making a quick buck.

Or in my case, bought because of after Tesla"s going private, I would not have any opportunity to buy. Wanted to own shares of the private company and have an increased opportunity of buy additional shares in the future.

 

[CyberDutchie]

The 420 announcement was in August, well before the Q3 ER.

I stand corrected.

I was relieved that take private didn’t happen as the stars seemed all lined up for the stock to take off. Elon himself stated that he changed his mind because it would rob the retail investors from participating. So, while December was volatile, the sentiment here at TMC still very much buy the dip.

 

[bdy0627]

Our current dip, based on the low today, is already nearly to -16% from the recent short-lived high of $258. We are now down -44.2% from the ATH. Many think we are likely to see a 50% retracement from that ATH. That would take us down to $195.

 

[UncaNed]

I'm mostly invested in $TSLA at this point, with very little cash remaining to throw at it, but if it goes below $190, I'm going to be borrowing as much I possibly can to buy $TSLA. This is absolutely insane. At $185, the market cap would be <$34B, what it was back in 2013, when the Model S was barely in production, the X was a over-complicated beast, and no one believed the 3 would ever exist.

I think 1M cars/year is doable by 2022/2023. With an ASP of $45k and 20% Gross Margins, that would mean that Tesla would be trading at less than 1x 2023 sales, or somewhere in the low double digits (10x-12x) of 2023 EPS. That's absolutely insane!

I couldn't agree more. Except... DON'T borrow money to buy stock. Unless you've got as much money sitting there to pay it off on a moment's notice. How would you feel right now if you'd done that when it was SP $310??

Not an advice. It's just what a friend of a friend said his friend told him one time or something... after he watched a documentary about the great depression or something.

 

[UncaNed]

Our current dip, based on the low today, is already nearly to -16% from the recent short-lived high of $258. We are now down -44.2% from the ATH. Many think we are likely to see a 50% retracement from that ATH. That would take us down to $195.

Is "Many Think" the cousin of "Some Say"

 

[Cherry Wine]

Do the longs here have a standard in terms of Covered Call writing strategies? When a stock is in a downtrend, one wise move is to write out of the money longer-term calls to capture some of the costs of the downtrend. I do hope you guys have had this strategy for some time this year in order to soften the blow a bit. Those under 100 shares in their accounts cannot do much of this unless their brokerage has allowed it.

I've been writing credit spreads / selling covered calls the whole year. It hasn't counteracted my losses by a long shot, but it's lessened the sting.

I have no strategy on this and I'm not aware it has ever been discussed here - well covered calls, yes, but not in any specific context. There is a Tesla trading thread somewhere, might be stuff in there.

TBH I'm not personally comfortable with writing covered calls because Tesla is so volatile. It can rally as quickly as it drops and I could have my shares called-away at any time, which I don't really want. If you have ideas to persuade me otherwise then my mind is open.

If you're concerned about a runaway in the stock price, you can cap your potential losses in the event of a "white swan" event by selling credit spreads. Your loss is capped at (Difference in Strike Price) - (Credit from Spread). As an example, I closed out some 5/17 $235/$240 credit spreads today. I had sold them at an average price of $1.65, so if TSLA closed today at $240 or above my maximum loss was capped at $335 per spread. However, that would have meant my LEAPs, monthlies, and stock would have appreciated, so I was fine with the potential loss, and furthermore, I was content to have simply rolled the spreads out and up as long as I needed until the spreads expired worthless, as, again, my long calls and stock would be continuously going up in value in the interim.

Frustrating time to be a TSLA long .... as much as I believe in Elon and the company I'm no fan of his emails. I think he could learn how to say the same thing and lessen the impact on the stock price although I realize that he's never ben the smoothest communicator.

For the time being TSLA is in the doghouse and I'm not seeing any real positive numbers that would turn this thing around in the near term .... so I'll just hold on tight and keep faith that they are making pretty incredible cars that are still without any real competition. But for the time being the optimism that once drove the SP higher seems to be gone .....

Cheers to the longs ....

Couldn't agree more. I know it's his style, but man, you'd think he could chill on the negative hyperbole when investors are already clearly hesitant to throw money at your company. This same e-mail could have been framed so differently. Who knows, maybe it wouldn't have mattered. Probably not.

I am not an investor but my impression is that the street is fatigued by Elon/Tesla whiplash.

There has been an awful lot of drama over the last year and the signal can get lost in the noise. I see the noise as SEC, Model 3 ramp, Gigafactory uncertainty, staff turnover, pedo nonsense, Autopilot hyperbole, etc.

At this point I think the street wants hard numbers and evidence to bump stock prices; the days of Elon’s projections turning into higher TSLA are over.

If FSD really starts driving people cross country in December 2019 (31st, midnight, Elon time), Q2 and Q3 execute, Model Y development and deployment remain on track, Shanghai starts spitting out automobiles, Semi shows some life, and cash on hand stabilizes or improves I think there’s a huge potential upside.

I also agree with this. At this point, I don't see anything but cold hard facts (and cash) that will pull us out of this tailspin.

Well, I'm off to do horrible medical things for the next week. My father, who is much much more brilliant and insightful than me, thinks Tesla is cheap at this price and is doing fine. As do I. We'll see if the stock price is still artificially depressed in June, or whether leaked delivery numbers start causing buyers to show up.

Cheers and best wishes to you, @neroden.

Yes, we discussed earlier. I mean I am long, seems the derogatory term is a "bag holder", which is fine. But I do worry that the low SP is dangerous for Tesla, even though rationally it isn't.

I also get stressed by the low SP, it makes me miserable, even though I've no plans to sell and have plenty of time until retirement. It's a chronic stress for me.

And yes, don't look at the SP, leave the forum and live your life, I know, but I can't. I need to devour every bit of information I can.

Hang in there. You might want to institute some downside protection just to help you relax. Consider it insurance.

Unfortunately the ideal times to trade options are completely counter-emotional to what you want them to be. Dips like this are the worst time to be selling covered calls since everything is down, even though this is when we all want to scrounge up as much of a silver lining as we can.

You can get more for your calls if you go longer-term, but you'll still be getting pennies on the dollar since options are leveraged on the way up and the way down.

This is an ideal time to be buying calls or selling puts, but it's hard to double-down when you're in damage control mode.

Generally I agree with you, but someone who followed this advice since the first downtrend this year would be severely in the hole.

 

[Bladerskb]

with respect to the accident, I was focused on the text of the report and failed to notice the screen shot. For it to be included it must be relevant to the accident and the Tesla is fast approaching the intersection with no semi in view. The obvious conclusion is that the semi driver raced out from behind the trees and braked (the NTSB notes that the semi slowed while blocking the lane). Take a look at that picture and consider that you are traveling at highway speed (68mph in the report, but even at the posted 55mph).

For the semi to pull out in front of the Tesla in that time frame it must have approached the intersection at reckless speed with disregard for the right of way traffic.

And yet, the text of the report makes it sound like an autopilot fail.

@Chocochip do you still think AP is relevant? What was it supposed to have done? Can it alter the laws of physics?

You do realize that's a google picture of the location and not of the actual incident? There's video tape of the incident. What you are claiming is simply not true.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

The NTSB knows the answers and could have included them in the preliminary report, but they chose not to. But they did choose to include that AP was engaged 10s prior to the accident as if that were even relevant -- in terms of this accident it was currently engaged and that is the only thing that is relevant. What does it matter if it was 10s or 10m or 10h?

Good post overall, but this point is a bit of a stretch because you're heavily implying some nefarious intent by the NTSB. It's just another data point, and its importance is yet to be determined - but it points to the driver motive and actions. Tesla drivers sometimes put on the autopilot just before needing their attention somewhere else. We shouldn't, but some of us do - this forum and others are full of people fessing up to this and I'm guilty too. I've never taken my eyes off the road for 10 seconds, but certainly for 2 or 3 seconds after I know the AP has engaged.

Anyway, in my opinion (as an experienced driver, as I am sure many of us here are) a truck of that size would not get that far across the road from a standing start, without me having time to slam the brakes and avoid the collision, as I would likely see it to the side before it gets all the way across the lanes.

I also think that if the truck pulled out while the Tesla was in sight of it (let's say 500 feet) that the car would have chimed an alert. Mine does that when the AP isn't on, and someone starts to pull out. So OK now i'm speculating on a speculation, but it would seem the most likely scenario is that the driver put on the autopilot without seeing the truck, which likely pulled out very slowly moving across the lanes having not seen the Tesla 1,000 feet away, or having misjudged its speed, and the driver didn't see anything because he was not looking.

Ergo, this isn't an AP issue, it's a driver issue.

So, if you really think that it is so simple to avoid a vehicle that suddenly pulls in front of you, at speed, where you had no visibility as to its approach.

Well, it is clear why Tesla isn't employing you.

Sure it's possible the truck came out of the junction at 40 mph as you mentioned, but exceptionally unlikely because that would mean either he didn't stop or slow before getting to the junction (trucks simply can't accelerate that quickly).

 

[Bladerskb]

Why do you think it did not?

okay, in case you didn't read any of those posts and this is just an honest jumping to "but autopilot!!!!! OMOGGBBQ!!!"

The NTSB preliminary report (which I linked) is silent on the distance between the Tesla and the semi when the semi failed to yield right of way and pulled out in front of it. Maybe it was 10 minutes, but the frame they posted is clearly from the Tesla and it shows close proximity to an intersection, the approach to which is obstructed by trees.

That's Google Maps...

You diehards are too much.