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The way the Ravens are being held up I cringe at the thought we might have less than 10k MS/X this quarter.

I don't believe that, most cars are sitting currently in Freemont and waiting for delivery according to SX delivery threads. But again delivery dates are moved from 21st to 23rd of May, you never know if they will be moved again. But also somehow they managed to deliver some cars. maybe it is different state by state?
 
According to reports, while the deliveries were being held up(which has been fixed for days now), Tesla was building up inventory/production of the updates S/X. It's not like production was idle until they fixed the hold up with being able to deliver the vehicles.
I hoped that this was the situation, but there have only been a couple of delivery reports on the forum. I had expected a large wave of deliveries after fixing the regulatory issue if they had been building inventory, but I'm not sure if that happened - I had imagined that there would be more delivery reports on the forum.
 
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The guy has a point. Elon gets some guidance right and some timing way off. It's okay to be off but at least express uncertainty. When he talks about GF3, he built in uncertainty there. When he's talking about FSD, he shouldn't use phrase such as "I would be surprised if people can't fall asleep in the car by end of next year". I mean he's 2 months late on advance summon already so how are were are we suppose to put his confidence in FSD? Honestly if Elon just stick to conservative guide and take out all the "I am 100% certain, or people shouldn't have any doubt"...SP would be 500+ today. His guide is so liberal that it has created these short sellers saying how he's a fraud selling snake oil. Just because he eventually get it done or the tech eventually exist doesn't mean he should give wild guide. Imagine if steve job said in 1995 "There shouldn't be any doubt that we will make a smart device that is 50 times faster than the fastest computer today and can also make phone call by next year" and then release said product in 2007.

There's plenty of valid criticism for Tesla in Q1.

- They botched trying to ramp overseas logistics
- They botched the S/X motor refresh and created a gap where they had to essentially halt production.
- Elon's spat with the SEC

Tesla however has not be screwing up, quarter after quarter as he insinuated. Q2 to Q3 2018 was massive improvement in production, efficiency and logistics. They even kept Model 3 margins steady while introducing Mid Range in Q4. By all accounts, Tesla absolutely delivered on Q3 and Q4 and I think they delivered on Q2 2018 as well. So this notion that Tesla is an incompetent company is stupid. Yes they had a bad quarter and failed at a couple things. None of which are long term effects and will be fixed within a quarter or two.

I get especially annoyed at the notion that Tesla is incompetent. The logistics for trying to deliver vehicles across the entire world from one location is insane. Even the smallest hiccups can cause major downstream issues for the quarter.
 
We'll see whether BAIC or BYD moves in on the US market with good customer service. That would be something which could really switch buyers away from Tesla.

Wow. I just have a hard time believing US customers will buy Chinese cars, at least in the near term. Not as long as Tesla is there to compete.

Now, from what I’ve heard, the Chinese are playing the game as far as using the dealership mafia.
 
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There's plenty of valid criticism for Tesla in Q1.

- They botched trying to ramp overseas logistics
- They botched the S/X motor refresh and created a gap where they had to essentially halt production.
- Elon's spat with the SEC

Tesla however has not be screwing up, quarter after quarter as he insinuated. Q2 to Q3 2018 was massive improvement in production, efficiency and logistics. They even kept Model 3 margins steady while introducing Mid Range in Q4. By all accounts, Tesla absolutely delivered on Q3 and Q4 and I think they delivered on Q2 2018 as well. So this notion that Tesla is an incompetent company is stupid. Yes they had a bad quarter and failed at a couple things. None of which are long term effects and will be fixed within a quarter or two.

I get especially annoyed at the notion that Tesla is incompetent. The logistics for trying to deliver vehicles across the entire world from one location is insane. Even the smallest hiccups can cause major downstream issues for the quarter.

I think he was more or less referring to Elon's crazy guide and his advice is for Elon to STFU and execute. I don't even think he was particularly mad about his execution, just his promise of the liberal guide he did not meet.

Elon just like to talk big. Tesla is definitely not incompetent, the product is amazing and his roadmap is world class. But it's okay to not give time lines. Just say we are working hard to make x, y, and z happen as soon as we can. He is not a fan of talking in baby steps. Why talk about 10k production/week when you are barely hitting 500/week? Just talk about how you will try to hit 2k by x date. And then during the next ER..you announce how you hit 3k but now you are going for 5k by x date.
 
Tesla is the 6th most popular brand in California!

Brand
....CA March YTD..................YTD % Share
  1. Toyota........75,730...........,............................16.3
  2. Honda........59,859........................................12.9
  3. Ford...........39,811.........................................8.6
  4. Chevrolet...34,833.........................................7.5
  5. Nissan........26,914........................................5.8
  6. Tesla...........20,491..................................4.4
Info Released today 5/20/2019

What I find amazing about this is Tesla only has 3 models. (forth on the way) That's it.
What happens when they have all variants covered?
 
According to reports, while the deliveries were being held up(which has been fixed for days now), Tesla was building up inventory/production of the updates S/X. It's not like production was idle until they fixed the hold up with being able to deliver the vehicles.

I've been waiting almost 4 weeks, and according to my delivery specialist today, they don't know when they will start PRODUCTION. There seems to be a problem getting them built.
 
just checked Troys Twitter he is estimating currently 74k deliveries
Troy Teslike on Twitter
If they don't actually deliver 90k in Q2 like Elon said during the Q1 earnings call and they also don't have a much narrower loss like Elon said then look out below. Elon has never heard of the concept of under-promise and over-deliver and it is killing him right now.
 
Take it from me: Tesla's sales/delivery experience has been a crappy mess since 2013. I remember when they didn't understand how NY's car insurance system worked and kept asking for insurance before giving me a VIN number -- you can't get insurance without a VIN number. Had to demand the phone number of a local NY person to get the problem straightened out, took weeks.

In other words, the crappiness of sales/delivery experience hasn't really changed. :-( The Q4 deliveries just brought it into sharp relief, and maybe finally brought it to the attention of top management, who had been ignoring it for five years. They REALLY need to fix it. But it hasn't deterred too many people from buying the cars for the last 6 years....

Personal Anecdote: After taking delivery of my P3D at the end of Q3 2018, it took so long time to get my plates and registration that my temp registration expired. I had to call the service center to get them to send another temp registration paper so my car could legally drive. From talking to others who took delivery around that time it seems like it was a common issue.

At one point I thought it was our local DMV that was slowing things down but as I dug into it, I heard from Tesla that they send all paperwork to California to be processed by some centralized department. That sounds expensive, since they end up rush shipping (My plates ended up being shipped to me overnight air from California) but it's also bad for customer satisfaction. By decentralizing this at each service center / store they could speed up the process and more easily scale service to the local needs.