Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachShahan]

Some off you may know me from posting quite a bid in the past and I appreciate all the appreciation I received.

Because I heard from some that my posts have been helpful I decided that I may be able to make a larger impact for our mission by moving to Twitter addressing a larger audience and I did move. In parallel I did write some articles atz CT and elektroauto-news and are still overwhelmed by the positive feedback I received here as well at Twitter as well at this web pages.

Over the years I have seen many shorts and trolls in this threat particularly and believe its probably no surprise that most of them have similar names and very similar syntax while texting. That can't be a coincidence.

At Twitter where I expected many trolls trying to chase me and annoy me I found just some very few and reliable ones following me since a long time posting their opinions with no facts or feedback since many months. Thats funny for me that they keep trying while never heard any feedback from me because its not worth it.

Since my time is limited and I enjoy writing as well I had to cut down my time either here or at Twitter and decided to read but not write as much at TMC.

Now since I returned the last days to spend a bid more time at TMC while the SP went down my observation is that way more trolls and shorts are trying to influence here versus what I experience at Twitter.

My modest advice, do not even respond or try to argue as all what they won't is a wider audience and attention to spread their FUD but if you read carefully there is nothing what they really have to contribute or to say.

Just a subjective point of view but thought I share it for the benefit of the audience.

A <3 for the insightful comment and for shifting more of your writing time to CleanTechnica

(Archives here if anyone has missed them and missed Alex: Alex Voigt, Author at CleanTechnica )

Side note: I also made time for this thread after long absence due in part to the share price drop. I imagine there's a good number of people who turn here for extra context, thoughts, guidance in such times — which can also make it seem like concern trolls popping out of nowhere (might just be genuinely concerned TSLA shareholders venting or looking for guidance).

Though, I agree — don't recall seeing so much potential short trolling on here.

 

[neroden]

The Bloomberg tracker has proven highly untrustworthy, and VIN scrambling means it's more likely to overestimate than underestimate. I would like to believe that it's correct, but I don't.

If Tesla's producing 6K/week (and I don't think they are yet), they're going to be able to deliver about 68000 Model 3s (if they unwind the 'wave' by 10,000 more cars). Given that Raven only started delivering last week, I think 20K for the S & X is overly optimistic. (17K more likely, perhaps.)

I don't think these Q2 details really matter -- what matters is getting these damn bottlenecks resolved before Q3.

 

[anon]

Tesla would not have rushed to pull every demand lever they had, laid off employees, and dropped prices and acted in such a panicy manner about sales strategy were Tesla's troubles just a function of production constraints.

It's reasonable to say that there wasn't enough demand for the higher-trim versions of Model 3 alone, and that's why they had to introduce the SR when they still weren't ready on cost (hence the store closures and layoffs)...especially as they faced unexpected European-spec supplier issues and needed to try to make up some of the difference with more US orders in a hurry. But then the SR+ proved popular enough that they didn't need to worry about the SR after all. I also think it's reasonable to question Model 3 ASPs/margin until we see how the mix settles down after a while, but I am struggling to see why there is any evidence of weak overall Model 3 demand now that SR+ is available...what am I missing?

Leasing has been introduced in the US and that could be taken as a sign of lower demand, but then they have a barely-used warehouse loan line available (which needs to be used up within the next few months unless they get it revised) and so I don't see that they have much to lose on that, especially as Musk is using that as a way to build up his robotaxi fleet - I know that it is a questionable prospect, but Musk believes in it and so it easily explains the current leasing strategy.

Also, I don't think it's fair to say that they've pulled every demand lever until we see advertising! Sounds like that might be coming sooner rather than later though.

 

[neroden]

Neroden what do we think of Q1 then? I think there was a short term demand issue there and they had to preserve cash mid quarter so they scaled back production a bit.

I've said this already:
(1) Panasonic did not produce enough viable cells for Model 3 (the leaks indicate high scrap rates!). Tesla avoided talking about this until quite late to spare Panasonic execs' feelings.
(2) Model S & X had a predicted short term drop in demand due to the tax credit expirations, which was supposed to be matched up with the Project Raven switchover, but Project Raven was delayed in completion by several months, and leaked before it was done, which created a more real and unexpected short-term demand issue by turning existing S/X into "outdated stock".
(3) There are persistent problems in getting the production costs down on Model 3, though I think they are making continuous progress. $35K+inflation is getting to be around $40K now, making it a lot harder to make a $35K car. Production of a new interior design was going to cost far more than it was worth given how many people were willing to be upsold to SR+. But it had to be released to fulfill a promise (at least we aren't hearing the FUDstorm of "they will never release the $35K model" now). They handled this about as well as they could, but it was an expensive promise to keep.

(4) Oh, and, yeah, they had worked through the MR/LR US order book before the December 31 tax credit expiration; we all knew that, right? I don't think they expected to have such difficulties in shipping the MR/LR cars to Europe and China, but they ended up with a shortage of Euro-spec parts, so those orders STILL are not all fulfilled.

 

[bsilva]

Tesla's lack of a good organizational culture, disregard for the value of middle management and disregard of communicatons/people skills, has been its weak point since the Roadster days. You're only noticing this NOW?

The reason they can get away with it is that the products are so good that buyers mostly tolerate the awful communications, and working on Teslas is so cool that employees tolerate the internal disorganization and somewhat-chaotic management. I don't see this changing any time soon.

A poor culture eventually catches up to you. We need Elon to be spending his time on products, attracting (and retaining talent), building a sustainable organization, and the company's overall strategy, and not reviewing individual expense reports. There's only 24 hours in a day even for a workaholic.

 

[anon]

I don't think these Q2 details really matter -- what matters is getting these damn bottlenecks resolved before Q3.

Seems reasonable to me - I don't really care about Raven ramp up delays if they can say they are in sight of 2k/week production at the end of the quarter and make a comment about sufficient orders to support that. The market probably won't like a miss on delivery numbers for a few days, but should recover quickly if there is good evidence of S/X recovery for the future.

 

[neroden]

A poor culture eventually catches up to you.

I said that five years ago, here. People pooh-poohed me.

It's certainly true.

I don't think it's going to catch up with them yet. The so-called "competition" remains laughable -- nobody (with the possible exceptions of BYD and BAIC) has anywhere close to a reasonable battery supply. The Europeans are now making cars which cost more than Model S and have shorter ranges, producing them in small numbers due to battery shortages, and by all accounts barely making any gross margin on them. Meanwhile they're trying to start building their own competitor to the Superchargers and are far behind.

We'll see whether BAIC or BYD moves in on the US market with good customer service. That would be something which could really switch buyers away from Tesla.

 

[bsilva]

A poor culture eventually catches up to you. We need Elon to be spending his time on products, attracting (and retaining talent), building a sustainable organization, and the company's overall strategy, and not reviewing individual expense reports. There's only 24 hours in a day even for a workaholic.

The culture of the legacy car companies is a big reason why I'm not as worried about them catching up as fast as some people. They are ripe for disruption. The culture of innovation is one thing I'm particularly excited about Tesla. But vision without execution doesn't end well.

 

[Zero CO2]

Some off you may know me from posting quite a bid in the past and I appreciate all the appreciation I received.

Because I heard from some that my posts have been helpful I decided that I may be able to make a larger impact for our mission by moving to Twitter addressing a larger audience and I did move. In parallel I did write some articles atz CT and elektroauto-news and are still overwhelmed by the positive feedback I received here as well at Twitter as well at this web pages.

Over the years I have seen many shorts and trolls in this threat particularly and believe its probably no surprise that most of them have similar names and very similar syntax while texting. That can't be a coincidence.

At Twitter where I expected many trolls trying to chase me and annoy me I found just some very few and reliable ones following me since a long time posting their opinions with no facts or feedback since many months. Thats funny for me that they keep trying while never heard any feedback from me because its not worth it.

Since my time is limited and I enjoy writing as well I had to cut down my time either here or at Twitter and decided to read but not write as much at TMC.

Now since I returned the last days to spend a bid more time at TMC while the SP went down my observation is that way more trolls and shorts are trying to influence here versus what I experience at Twitter.

My modest advice, do not even respond or try to argue as all what they won't is a wider audience and attention to spread their FUD but if you read carefully there is nothing what they really have to contribute or to say.

Just a subjective point of view but thought I share it for the benefit of the audience.

Ignoring the Trolls It is like trying to ignore Trump .... is what i set out to do November 2016 with little success ... still trying ....

 

[WarpedOne]

I said that five years ago, here. People pooh-poohed me.

Five years ago that was your fear.
Today it is reality and I am the one getting the poos...

Elon managed to turn Tesla into "Can't touch this" product and company.
A failure by definition.

 

[dc_h]

Point is, Elon didn’t even have to write that email or include such details. Also a CEO running two company’s should not be revieweing expenses individually. It signals red flags to the market

I don’t think a CEO monitoring expenses is a problem. I think the wording was either careless or just Elon being rebellious and saying FU to the market. Smart people do dumb stuff all the time. Smart people are smart, not unhuman.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Lol these hot takes I'm seeing are hilarious. One bad quarter where they messed up on doing a motor updates for S/X, did a sloppy job at starting overseas delivery logistics(from scratch I might add), and are unable to increase Model 3 production due to Panasonic's slacking......and Elon's now destroyed the company . I'm getting a lot of amusement out of all of the hot takes. Literally nothing has changed about Tesla's business.

 

[Toumal]

Did I say no demand? Don’t make ridiculous straw man arguments.

The disaster that was Q1 and the follow up messaging about robo taxi, plus email last week, mixed with China issues led to this.

It’s troubling people react so strongly to mild criticism of the company even after one of its worst quarters ever.

The demand doubts are in the recent news, this was not meant as a response to you. What was meant as a response was the fact that Tesla is executing. They deliver.

It's always the same circular argument: if Tesla is executing there is no demand. If there is demand Tesla is not executing. I'm sick of it.

Criticize Tesla for their shortcomings and be specific instead of broad statements such as "lack of execution".

 

[Zaxxon]

Criticize Tesla for their shortcomings and be specific instead of broad statements such as "lack of execution".

Ooh, ooh, can I play?

I ordered a Model X on Thursday and I don't have it yet. Unacceptable failure to execute.

 

[AlexS]

It’s been over 6 K for about a week. A little averaging gets you to around 70,000 for the quarter. Is 20,000 S and X doable for this quarter? That would put them right around 90,000.
Pipe dream? Who knows. Sales is another thing of course.

I’m thinking Canada could suck up as many as 12000 cars for the quarter just hearing how busy Vancouver is. Just a guess of course.

About 10k cars were in transit, about 8-10k was inventory at the end of q1, max possible deliveries of newly produced M3 is 50k probably 45k is safer number to calculate. If we assume all is good it is 63k cars and ideally 12k newly produced SX deliveries it will be 75k best case scenario. That also means that almost all new inventory left in Q1 is sold. Maybe with better luck in overseas logistics it will reach 80k. But guided 90k deliveries will not happen.

20k SX is not possible

 

[JRP3]

Well, there are some institutions which have decided to buy big at these fire-sale prices.

Ross Gerber on Twitter

I saw that earlier but can't find any supporting data.

 

[WarpedOne]

Literally nothing has changed about Tesla's business.

That's the main problem.. execution is not getting better, Q after Q they find new ways to suck.

.

They deliver.

Oh, they do you say?

Your Model 3 Delivery Estimate
Model 3 deliveries are beginning in the US and Canada based on the time and date that you placed your reservation.
RN107613168 made on March 31, 2016

• 
  Early 2019

This is not a broken promise any more, this is a blatant fraud.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

That's the main problem.. execution is not getting better, Q after Q they find new ways to suck.

.

Oh, they do you say?



This is not a broken promise any more, this is a blatant fraud.

Pretty piss poor job there of trolling. You going to ignore all of the progress that Tesla made in Q2, Q3, and Q4 in 2018? Such a lame attempt to distort facts.

 

[Heimdallr]

Literally nothing has changed about Tesla's business.

Yes, unfortunately it is still structurally unprofitable...on balance, the shorts have been right about as often as we bulls. "One bad quarter" my ass - there has been consistent overpromising and underdelivering on Elon's part. No wonder he has lost call credibility.

A few examples:
Model 3 ramp
Model 3 base price
Model S/X margin
Coast-to-coast by "end of the year" (2017)
2-4 gigafactories announced by "end of the year" (2017)
Solar Roof
And the worst of all...alien dreadnought! Where is this super factory that he has promised? They have barely passed 5k per week, wasn't he absolutely certain of 10k per week by the end of 2018? Tesla has a hard time hitting production levels and the margins they had forecast. Anyone remember 30% gross margin for Model S/X? Last conference call, this changed to something along the lines of "we are still expecting 25% margin for Model 3 and Model S/X".

That said, TSLA is still my best long-term bet. There is no demand problem - everyone and their mum will want a Tesla. They will continue to innovate and move fast - if anyone thinks that the competition will catch up they will soon find that Tesla is a moving target. They will continue to ride down the cost-curve of batteries and other associated technologies and I wouldn't discount the probability that things like FSD or the Alien Dreadnought will come true one day. I certainly would never bet against Elon Musk.

Elon's and Tesla's investor communication is simply awful.
“What people should absolutely have zero concern about, and I mean 0, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year. […] I think people should really not have any concerns that we won’t reach that outcome from a production rate.” And then later "I've never done this before. How am I supposed to know how long it takes?!" Hahaha, it would be funny if we weren't all personally affected. There's an easy fix: just STFU and execute. Don't say there should be zero doubt when you have no idea about the timeline. He would have fewer haters too. I believe a large part of the financial media has turned on him mostly because of his stupid predictions.

 

[JRP3]

Five people managed to disagree with something I guess they don't know about and didn't bother checking it.

Or we knew about it and also knew it was old news and no longer accurate.