Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Doggydogworld]

Thanks for the comment, but I was thinking of a different post - somebody posted a screenshot of a TSLAQ Twitter post with data from a Citi analyst report showing something like 7500 Model 3s delivered in China in Q1. I'm not sure how they compiled that data though.

I believe that was 5300 Model 3 plus ~1800 Model X and ~600 Model S for 7700 total.​

There were 8 ships to China in Q1, yet only 5,300 model 3s delivered. Does anyone know if Tesla has delivered all those model 3s that were shipped but not delivered in Q1?

Any spillover should have been delivered in April. The link @tentonine mentioned showed 2k+ April Model 3s in China.

I believe Tesla may have also shipped unsold inventory cars to China in Q1 to beat the potential 4/1 tariff hike. That would make it difficult to match total shipped vs. total delivered.

 

[Icer]

The obvious point of the last two "company emails" is they leaked.

 

[FreqFlyer]

So who doesn't believe these "emails" are intentional leaks?

Why do you think positive news in an internal email a leak? Was the internal "negative" email about severe cost cutting an internal link?

Funny how negative emails regarding Tesla is not a "leak".

 

[Foghat]

I’ve said this before, this is all about taking ownership away from Elon and crew.

There is no other way since the hubris had them asleep at the wheel.

Is the same for the energy business. When Tesla goes scale here, it is going to get especially clear.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Consumer Reports not happy the way the media is using their recent article to mislead:
Consumer Reports Not Thrilled By Misleading Navigate On Autopilot Headlines

From what I saw, a big part of the reason is that those other outlets went far out of their way to painstakingly avoid acknowledging that Tesla’s actually have that functionality. The articles I saw made a couple vague mentions about it automatically changing lanes(presumably because most of the criticisms make no sense otherwise), but largely tried to make it sound like there aren’t any other features there other than lane keeping and sometimes changing lanes.

Either all these reporters are complete idiots or they don’t want people to know about Navigate on Autopilot.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Consumer Reports not happy the way the media is using their recent article to mislead:
Consumer Reports Not Thrilled By Misleading Navigate On Autopilot Headlines

Nuanced well thought out ideas articulated for connoisseurs are always being misrepresented by sensationalist click-bait articles packaged for morons.

 

[kbM3]

Here is my modified version changing some of the ARK's assumptions, using ARk's model. Bull case, 1600 by 2023, and bear is 670 by 2023.

View attachment 410839

I don’t get the ASP in the bull case.

IF Teslas can perform as Robo-taxis at a cost of $0.22 / mile and a price of $1.00 / mile, then a Tesla can generate $0.50 profit / mile for the owner (70% of the revenue). At 80k miles / year, this would be $40k / year.

So if Tesla sells the vehicle at $50k, the buyer can then Immediately flip it for $100k or more profit.

 

[EVNow]

I don't think that one explicitly violated the settlement though. It didn't really have any figures - it was just math and extrapolation.

SEC settlement specifically calls out ANY written communication about order or production volume.

This email, if not approved by Tesla's counsel, violates that agreement.

LOL.

"any written communication" requires prior approval ? So, if EM sends a draft mail to counsel for approval, it would violate the agreement, since it doesn't have prior approval ?

This is about any "public" communication. Not within the company.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I have a theory that the reason Elon is crazy about autopilot right now, because he can't micromanage production anymore with Jerome being the Cesar of vehicle production. Jerome essentially saved the model 3 ramp and I guess he can say no to Elon because of that.

Great if true, maybe just my wishful thinking.

Jerome: Elon, go play with the coders and leave the rest of us alone.

I wish I could have seen that conversation

 

[StealthP3D]

So who doesn't believe these "emails" are intentional leaks?

All Elon Musk e-mails to all employees are leaked to the press. All of them.

 

[Drumheller]

Increased volume with lower margin vs. lower volume with increased margin. The optimum ratio constantly fluctuates, due to changes in both demand (incl. mix) and production costs (generally downward, which pushes margin upwards in a no-price-changed situation).

Seriously, this is economics 101....

You also refused to answer the question.

Also economics 101:

Company T can produce 100 widgets per time period
At price A, Company T has demand for 200 widgets per time period
Company T chooses to lower price of widget

Company T is also struggling to cut costs.


I doubt you and Kruggerand are missing the point I'm making. You're simply refusing to address it.

If demand at price A is greater than production ability AND the company is losing money per quarter then it is illogical to lower the price.

 

[kbM3]

I’ve seen no discussion on the FSD upgrade change.

Apparently Tesla now charges $6k (rather than $8k) to upgrade after purchase.

Bears are spinning this as a demand lever pull (which it may actually be an incentive to get people to upgrade now).

Tesla has said in the past that they will honor the upgrade price published at the time of service for the vehicle’s life. So this move also removes that obligation, since they now warn the upgrade price can increase.

I see them using this as a future demand lever for owners ordering after today. E.g. after some FSD features are in the wild and working, Tesla can say “We’re upping the FSD upgrade price from $6k to $10k by Jan 1st.”

 

[Icer]

All emails are leaked.
So the emails are public communications.

 

[elasalle]

I don't think that one explicitly violated the settlement though. It didn't really have any figures - it was just math and extrapolation.

SEC settlement specifically calls out ANY written communication about order or production volume.

This email, if not approved by Tesla's counsel, violates that agreement.

Cry me a River.

 

[Icer]

elasalle, do you believe these are not intentional leaks?

 

[Congo Line]

I don’t get the ASP in the bull case.

IF Teslas can perform as Robo-taxis at a cost of $0.22 / mile and a price of $1.00 / mile, then a Tesla can generate $0.50 profit / mile for the owner (70% of the revenue). At 80k miles / year, this would be $40k / year.

So if Tesla sells the vehicle at $50k, the buyer can then Immediately flip it for $100k or more profit.

Basic economics (my own level of understanding) would suggest that this will lead to a gradual reduction in ride-sharing pricing due to competition. If the profit level is that high, then enough people will 'rent' out their Teslas so that it will no longer be quite as profitable, since there is not unlimited demand for ride-sharing services.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Leaked email stops the bleeding on the stock price and we get a litany of care bear concerns about the SEC agreement. Shocking.

 

[Tslynk67]

Tesla shares bounce on leaked memo about rising sales

sorry if posted already...

Shares of Tesla, suffering one of the worst stretches in company history, rebounded Thursday after CEO Elon Musk told employees that orders are up.

The gyrations Thursday were indicators of a volatile day for the shares, which have shed about 60% of their value in three weeks and are trading at the lowest levels since late 2016.

Musk told employees in a memo late Wednesday that the company had over 50,000 net new orders so far this quarter, and that based on current trends, Tesla Inc. has a chance of exceeding the record 90,700 deliveries set in the fourth quarter of last year. The memo was circulating on the internet and confirmed as authentic by a person with knowledge of its origin. The person didn't want to be identified because the memo was confidential.

Stock in the Palo Alto, California, company fell 3% after the opening bell but then rebounded within an hour. It leveled off by mid-morning and was trading was trading up slightly at $193.33.

Shares were under significant pressure early after Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas told investors on a private call Wednesday that demand for Tesla's cars was lower than predicted. He says if it continues into next year then Tesla will become a restructuring story. A recording of the call was obtained by The Associated Press.

Jonas also says that Tesla has 49,000 employees and is the size of a company that sells a million vehicles per year. Last year it sold 245,000.

Musk's memo said the company needs to sustain production of 1,000 Model 3s each day, something that the company has done multiple days.

Thanks, I'd missed that...

 

[FreqFlyer]

All emails are leaked.
So the emails are public communications.

You don't believe that for one second, but its good contrarian fodder. So Boeing's corporate emails between management and engineering about the 737 MAX grounding is public doman? What about Apple's emails between management and engineering on the new Iphone release this fall, is that "public" communications?

I work at an engineering company, and trust me, whats in my company's email is not for your consumption or business.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

I hate the shorts so much... it was so obvious model 3 had no demand issue. I sold four threes in a month. They don’t think there’s more idiots like me selling cars for supercharging they never gonna use???! Man these guys are idiots (well maybe I am too)