Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bobfitz1]

There isn't going to be excess 2170 capacity at GF1 for a very long time unless Panasonic starts doing something else...

It's possible this has been discussed already and I've missed it. Has anyone posited how long it may take Tesla to begin producing higher capacity and cheaper cells using the Maxwell dry electrode IP? It seems well established that a good amount of Tesla time and effort went into validating Maxwell's performance claims and scalability. Another Maxwell claim was that dry electrode cells are easier and faster to manufacture. Both suggest that setting up new production lines at GF1 to produce the new cells in volume might be possible in 12 - 18 months rather than 2 to 3 years. Perhaps the first year or more of volume production will go into Semi and ramp with it?

What I really wonder is whether introduction of new cells using Maxwell IP (and additional improvements from Jeff Dahn's group) will be built by Tesla rather than Panasonic. Panasonic, for whatever reasons, has not been able to keep GF1 cell production increasing fast enough to meet all Tesla's needs. If Grohmann could design and build new cell lines from a clean sheet of paper, maybe there would not be enough infringement on Panasonic IP to prevent Tesla taking the next logical step and vertically integrating cell production and pack assembly.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Adam Jonas should *never* have been allowed on quarterly conference calls. He is an *idiot* and a *time-waster*. Have you heard Elon's astonished "Really?" reactions to his previous questions? Put some real investors on the conference calls.

Again: He (quite seriously) asked Elon on a conference call about the risk of Tesla’s turning into Terminators and worries about Autopilot being “weapons grade AI”.

And yes, I feel the need to point this out any time the question comes up of how seriously we should take Jonas.

 

[neroden]

Regarding cells, I think it's obvious they're going to try to integrate the Maxwell dry electrode process as soon as possible. But I'd say they can't interrupt Model 3 production by changing cell type until Model Y is out. They can start by putting the Maxwell cells in internal-use Semis, but the next logical candidate is a refreshed S & X battery, giving them an additional distinguishing feature from Model 3 in the form of longer range. People have been complaining that the S/X battery is inferior to the 3 battery, and it is in some ways, so giving it the new cells first would change that perception -- on cars where if there's some slowdown in the cell production during the "teething phase" of the Maxwell cells, it wouldn't be so bad.

 

[neroden]

Again: He (quite seriously) asked Elon on a conference call about the risk of Tesla’s turning into Terminators and worries about Autopilot being “weapons grade AI”.

And yes, I feel the need to point this out any time the question comes up of how seriously we should take Jonas.

He also opened the *first* question of a Tesla conference call asking about Mars and Tesla applications on Mars. Musk said "Mars? Really? That's your question?" And basically said, no, Tesla has nothing to do with Mars.

Jonas also, if you remember, valued Tesla Network (still vaporware) at multibillions, while simultaneously valuing Tesla Energy (which was producing profit right that minute) at zero. This is an idiot.

 

[EVNow]

I don't think it will be a big deal if Elon says he's not going to be on ER calls going forward. Bezos hasn't been on a quarterly conference call for years.

Sure, Musk doesn't need to be there once TSLA hits 1,000

 

[KSilver2000]

Apple stopped giving unit numbers, right ? They caught a lot of grief for that - but nobody is cribbing about it now.

Yup. They literally just stopped mentioning sales units this year.

 

[neroden]

It's possible this has been discussed already and I've missed it. Has anyone posited how long it may take Tesla to begin producing higher capacity and cheaper cells using the Maxwell dry electrode IP?

We are only guessing. I'd guess it'll take 6 months to a year.

It seems well established that a good amount of Tesla time and effort went into validating Maxwell's performance claims and scalability. Another Maxwell claim was that dry electrode cells are easier and faster to manufacture. Both suggest that setting up new production lines at GF1 to produce the new cells in volume might be possible in 12 - 18 months rather than 2 to 3 years.

Sure, yeah.

Perhaps the first year or more of volume production will go into Semi and ramp with it?

Sure. If there are any "bugs" they can work them out on internal-use production before they hit outside customers.

What I really wonder is whether introduction of new cells using Maxwell IP (and additional improvements from Jeff Dahn's group) will be built by Tesla rather than Panasonic. Panasonic, for whatever reasons, has not been able to keep GF1 cell production increasing fast enough to meet all Tesla's needs. If Grohmann could design and build new cell lines from a clean sheet of paper, maybe there would not be enough infringement on Panasonic IP to prevent Tesla taking the next logical step and vertically integrating cell production and pack assembly.

Panasonic keeps emphasizing that they are a *partner* to Tesla. I suspect Tesla will politely continue that, espeically since it means Panasonic is providing capital. That said, the *arrangement* of the partnership could change to be more heavily weighted to Tesla; I could certainly imagine Tesla taking over part of the cell production, while Panasonic still manuafactured the chemical slurries.

 

[JRP3]

I know Elon's not a fan of advertising but I think Tesla needs to give it serious consideration ... just to educate the public.

And they probably will, as soon as they see an actual demand problem.

 

[EVNow]

"I heard they are going bankrupt".
" yeah but when will I get the car? I heard they were really backed up"

This also shows the cognitive dissonance.

But seriously - there are a lot of things the common folk *just don't know* about the current state of Tesla. Since people don't want Tesla to advertise, I'd say they need to *educate* people. They wouldn't have to do it if all the free press Tesla gets was factual - but alas it is mostly fabricated.

Anyone why says Tesla shouldn't advertise - ask a few of your colleagues and find out how much they know about Tesla. Tesla really needs to do some web ads - just showing them availability and cost of 3.

 

[kbM3]

Exactly. It's like the same horror flick shown over and over all these years.

Elon is extremely analytical and data driven.

I believe he knows very well how much it serves the company to set these stretch goals. I believe he’s focused on the performance of the company:

1) Increasing production.
2) Cutting costs.
3) Making great products.

Take care of those things and the stock price will take care of itself.

Do you really think Elon is unaware of the pros and cons of the stretch goals?

Or do you just think he’s wrong and that you know better? I really do not get second guessing a tactic Elon has literally used to great success across SpaceX and Tesla.

Please help me understand how you can be so positive he’s just unaware.

 

[anon]

Either way - it looks weird to switch the cells for S/X, knowing next year they will not have enough cells for Semi/Y. Is this just personal desire of some folks to own S/X with 2170 cells ? Nothing wrong with that - but not sure that's optimal from Tesla POV.

It's not weird if Panasonic convert their Japanese production entirely to 2170. There was a leak within the last couple of months or so that they are planning to do that soon. This is likely necessary for S/X to reach 250kW charging, equivalent to the Model 3.

 

[neroden]

I should point out that Tesla's customer service remains... abysmal... mostly due to organizational and management deficiencies (the individual bottom-rung people are mostly great). I think there is strong evidence that Tesla is working hard on this, but it's a hard problem to fix bad corporate culture, particularly when some of the defects come from the top (Musk undervalues people skills and undervalues secretaries and undervalues middle managers).

I wouldn't advertise while that's as broken as it is. Best bang for the buck is to fix that. Make it so
(1) when you call, you get someone on the phone
(2) that person gives you accurate information, tells you when they don't know something, and knows how to find the right person to give you the information, and connects you to that person
(3) the person who does know the information calls you back and gives you accurate information
(4) delivery dates actually happen when planned
(5) bug reports actually get processed and addressed by the software team

Right now, educate people, they go happily to Tesla, and *then* they hit this sour spot. Fixing this should come first. When the Tesla communications experience is, well, *normal*, rather than old-school telephone-company bad, if they *then* want to increase demand *then* they can put out educational YouTube spots. But first, fix the communications.

 

[DaveT]

Stock would take a hit the first time he wasn't on.

He should announce it (that he's no longer going to be on conference calls) only during a conference call after a great quarter.

 

[neroden]

Elon is extremely analytical and data driven.

I believe he knows very well how much it serves the company to set these stretch goals. I believe he’s focused on the performance of the company:

1) Increasing production.
2) Cutting costs.
3) Making great products.

Take care of those things and the stock price will take care of itself.

My disagree is because I think for the stock price to "take care of itself", the company also has to provide good (not great, just good) customer service & communications (both ways, listening to customers and giving customers accurate information).

This should be 4) Provide great customer service.

And I think it's been overlooked for too long.

----
I believe if the customer service & communications was great it would make it a lot easier to counter the disinformation. Taking people to the website counters FUD about the car price. Pointing them to the 10-Ks counters FUD about "bankwuptcy". But it's harder to counter FUD about delivery times, since Tesla's delivery time estimates are infamously wildly inaccurate.

 

[DaveT]

yeah i think i remember you saying as much last year after Q1 call debacle

he’s foot in mouth sometimes. and i think the autonomy day claims have a significant contribution (along with others) to the recent market narrative and decline (whether we agree or not, irrelevant - it was used as a weapon against tsla)

but i’m still for hearing from him, rather than not. one thing we know, attendance would definitely be reduced if he wasn’t on calls

Elon would do better in interviews with people like Marques Brownlee.

Conference calls and quarterly shareholder letters are just bait for Elon to make outlandish goals that most likely won't be reached in his timeline.

 

[dww12]

It's possible this has been discussed already and I've missed it. Has anyone posited how long it may take Tesla to begin producing higher capacity and cheaper cells using the Maxwell dry electrode IP? It seems well established that a good amount of Tesla time and effort went into validating Maxwell's performance claims and scalability. Another Maxwell claim was that dry electrode cells are easier and faster to manufacture. Both suggest that setting up new production lines at GF1 to produce the new cells in volume might be possible in 12 - 18 months rather than 2 to 3 years. Perhaps the first year or more of volume production will go into Semi and ramp with it?

What I really wonder is whether introduction of new cells using Maxwell IP (and additional improvements from Jeff Dahn's group) will be built by Tesla rather than Panasonic. Panasonic, for whatever reasons, has not been able to keep GF1 cell production increasing fast enough to meet all Tesla's needs. If Grohmann could design and build new cell lines from a clean sheet of paper, maybe there would not be enough infringement on Panasonic IP to prevent Tesla taking the next logical step and vertically integrating cell production and pack assembly.

Or maybe be able to mix in 1 Maxwell module with 3 Pansonic to get going so it’s not complete swap over.

 

[MP3Mike]

Just had some relatives over for lunch and wanted to relay a story. We were discussing EV's and Tesla and my cousin said: "I heard they are going bankrupt". He also went on to say they would never have a car near $35k so I took him to the website and we pretended to order a Model 3. We had the entire family gathered around my laptop where I preceded to pull up the standard range Model 3 with no options (Black, stock wheels, black interior and no autopilot) ... total was $39,900 and I told them they could still get $3750 in tax credits. Brings us to $36,150 .... which seemed to shock them.
Cheers to the longs ...

@gtrplyr1 And then you should have said: Or you can go to a Tesla store, or call them, and place an off-menu order for a Model 3 SR for $35,400. And you still qualify for the $3,750 tax credit making the total $31,650 before delivery charges and taxes.

And technically that was the SR+, that has Autopilot, that you showed them.

Well in Texas they can't go to a store to do that, but they can call...

 

[DaveT]

Elon is extremely analytical and data driven.

I believe he knows very well how much it serves the company to set these stretch goals. I believe he’s focused on the performance of the company:

1) Increasing production.
2) Cutting costs.
3) Making great products.

Take care of those things and the stock price will take care of itself.

Do you really think Elon is unaware of the pros and cons of the stretch goals?

Or do you just think he’s wrong and that you know better? I really do not get second guessing a tactic Elon has literally used to great success across SpaceX and Tesla.

Please help me understand how you can be so positive he’s just unaware.

Yes, I think he really thinks that the problem is not his outlandish goals and timelines that he keeps missing, but rather he thinks the problem is people's "outlandish" reaction toward him/Tesla not meeting those goals/timelines. Go figure.

 

[DaveT]

As to the EM being on the calls debate: I do not remember which relatively recent call it was but, IMO, the best call scenario is EM is there BUT he puts all his various commanders on to talk about their areas of the company.....CFO, Jerome, Karparthy, JB.....etc and direct analysts' questions to the appropriate person.

He could give a short preamble or post script....AND STAY on SCRIPT

Are you talking about a conference call where Elon isn't the center of all attention? Is that even possible?

 

[Boomer19]

Yup. They literally just stopped mentioning sales units this year.

yes and the market had a hissy fit, albeit temporary