Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

We are only guessing. I'd guess it'll take 6 months to a year.

I'd say that is overly optimistic unless Maxwell has already successfully started making DBE cells in volume.

Just look at Panasonic they are already ~6 months in to turning on their three new lines that are just a faster version of their old ones... And they only think they will get them up and running in June... What if there are more unforeseen issues with them?

 

[JRP3]

The latest insanity from Anton Wahlman:
The U.S. Should Ban All Electric Cars in the Interest of National Security

 

[Krugerrand]

Interesting info...

Tesla Order Rate Surges 25% Worldwide, 116% In North America, According To New Data | CleanTechnica

It looks to me (and many others here) like a lot of Q1 was pulled into Q4, and now it is back to "normal"

Right?! Shocker! Who knew?

 

[LJS22]

Just had some relatives over for lunch and wanted to relay a story. We were discussing EV's and Tesla and my cousin said: "I heard they are going bankrupt". He also went on to say they would never have a car near $35k so I took him to the website and we pretended to order a Model 3. We had the entire family gathered around my laptop where I preceded to pull up the standard range Model 3 with no options (Black, stock wheels, black interior and no autopilot) ... total was $39,900 and I told them they could still get $3750 in tax credits. Brings us to $36,150 .... which seemed to shock them. Not sure if they get any additional incentives from their state (TX) but even without any additional incentives they were pleasantly surprised. The next thing he said was: " yeah but when will I get the car? I heard they were really backed up" .... I told him it wouldn't be out of the question to get it in a few weeks. I'm not exactly sure but I'm under the impression that what I told him was accurate. Of course there was also the question about range and where to charge ....

All of which tells me that once again Tesla has to do a better job of educating the average consumer ... I know Elon's not a fan of advertising but I think Tesla needs to give it serious consideration ... just to educate the public.

Cheers to the longs ...

That’s an accurate reaction from people in TX. Plus you can get the $35,000 option by calling it in.
But I agree a small amount of education will go a long way. However, the consumer will ultimately be the salesman. That’s why I believe demand is only going to pick up from here. I’ve probably had over a dozen interactions with people about my car since I got it and it’s easy to have all the answers for them. I think when I show them my monthly savings and show them the inside they are sold. Plus electricity is fairly cheap in Texas. I have yet to see a spike in my electric bill.

 

[Pras]

The latest insanity from Anton Wahlman:
The U.S. Should Ban All Electric Cars in the Interest of National Security

Will not click and read it, but the headline itself seems too desperate. As much as the world is focus on Tesla stocks, more and more model 3s are popping up at the cost of BMW Audi and Mercedes. Hence the desperate cry.

 

[Electroman]

Never ascribe a headline to a reporter. Beating up reporters for the sins of their bosses is just going to tick them off. Remember that almost any time you read a positive story about any company, it's because someone called a reporter and told them about something they think or can sell as great news.

have you seen their twitter feeds? Are you saying their bosses are directing these guys to constantly spout negative and spread rumors about Tesla ?

 

[EVMeister]

Elon probably loves being on the conference calls. I really can't see him deciding not to participate, I really can't. Tesla is his baby, he likes to be a core part of it.

 

[MP3Mike]

Panasonic said the equipment in place now can do 35 GWh/year, presumably after upgrading the older 300k cell/day lines to match the 400k cell/day new lines. They mentioned some new jigs arriving in June. Until then they are improving productivity, hiring people to eliminate staffing shortages and reducing scrap (not their exact words, interpolating between their statements and reports on the ground).

As of May 10th 2019 the new, faster, lines weren't operational yet. They are hoping to bring them online in June. Tesla battery partner Panasonic sees higher Gigafactory output, cites Model S/X demand increase

Explaining further, Tsuga noted that efficiencies in Gigafactory 1 should improve in the near future, particularly as its higher-speed production lines get optimized further. “Including the lines that have yet to start, we have three fast, higher speed lines, and when they become operational, we will see improved efficiency. And when we shifted tools, we were not really able to do sufficient verification of the facilities. We saw disruptions, and we now know the reasons. And so in June, we will start replacing the jigs, and therefore, the number of cells and the yield will improve quite a bit,” Tsuga said.

 

[Krugerrand]

I thought the Y was already announced as having a 300 mile range? 350 miles or 400 miles on the Y or 3 would be awesome, but I haven't seen or heard anything to indicate that's going to happen in the near term.

Yes. 300 for the LR RWD is the max range of the Y. No clue without checking the website about the other versions because I didn’t order one of those.

 

[Singuy]

The latest insanity from Anton Wahlman:
The U.S. Should Ban All Electric Cars in the Interest of National Security

They should ban short sellers in the interest of national security considering they are willing to

- run their cars into a Tesla filming autonomous driving
- Sabotaging robots in working environment that's potentially dangerous
- Set fires to Teslas
- create lies and fear

Can't tell the difference between shorts sellers and terrorists.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

The latest insanity from Anton Wahlman:
The U.S. Should Ban All Electric Cars in the Interest of National Security

I remember a few months back when he(and Donn Bailey who I’ve lately seen randomly hurling insults at people on Electrek) came here and tried to pass himself off as a reasonable bear. Interesting to see how they act with different audiences.

Scanning quickly through, I notice he brings up Cobalt but doesn’t mention Tesla’s enormous lead in eliminating Cobalt from their batteries.

 

[neroden]

I'd say that is overly optimistic unless Maxwell has already successfully started making DBE cells in volume.

Just look at Panasonic they are already ~6 months in to turning on their three new lines that are just a faster version of their old ones... And they only think they will get them up and running in June... What if there are more unforeseen issues with them?

Well, I was thinking 6 months to a year before they were producing enough Maxwell cells to use in prototype semis. Enough for mass production of Model S/X would take longer.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Yes. 300 for the LR RWD is the max range of the Y. No clue without checking the website about the other versions because I didn’t order one of those.

280 for FWD

 

[tschmidty]

I remember a few months back when he(and Donn Bailey who I’ve lately seen randomly hurling insults at people on Electrek) came here and tried to pass himself off as a reasonable bear. Interesting to see how they act with different audiences.

Scanning quickly through, I notice he brings up Cobalt but doesn’t mention Tesla’s enormous lead in eliminating Cobalt from their batteries.

I accidentally clicked before my brain kicked in but I am definitely dumber for having read it. Although I did appreciate the disclaimer at the bottom saying he was short on TSLA

 

[EVNow]

@gtrplyr1 And then you should have said: Or you can go to a Tesla store, or call them, and place an off-menu order for a Model 3 SR for $35,400. And you still qualify for the $3,750 tax credit making the total $31,650 before delivery charges and taxes.

Well in Texas they can't go to a store to do that, but they can call...

Yes, but that would reduce ASP

 

[Thumper]

I'm not caught up from this morning but OMG. I just flipped open the computer and I have a notification from TMC, and when I look at it, it's Laura Ks piece from CNBC. What have we come to. Have her rumers been verified? If not, we should not see TMC leading with it!

 

[dww12]

This also shows the cognitive dissonance.

But seriously - there are a lot of things the common folk *just don't know* about the current state of Tesla. Since people don't want Tesla to advertise, I'd say they need to *educate* people. They wouldn't have to do it if all the free press Tesla gets was factual - but alas it is mostly fabricated.

Anyone why says Tesla shouldn't advertise - ask a few of your colleagues and find out how much they know about Tesla. Tesla really needs to do some web ads - just showing them availability and cost of 3.

They don’t. As long as they are selling all they are making they don’t need to advertise. The AP and car improvements as well a word of mouth are opening up new customers. Look at all the magazine that are finally reviewing the M3P and “discovering” it is better and cheaper than a BMW M3 or Audi or AR. The M3P has been out and available for almost a year! Track mode has been out for 6mo. What new sports car takes that long to get reviewed? Almost all the youtube comments I have read lately have gone Tesla positive and that is on “gas car” channels. The enthusiasts are switching that is all the advertising they need. I think shortly after Advanced Summon drops Tesla goes back to a month + waiting list to get a car.

 

[RobStark]

2) S+X just got their refresh for 2019. There are two refreshes in one year?

Tesla doesn't do things the traditional way.

*sugar* ships when ready. This 2nd refresh may very well be true.

Raven was ready early in 2019, and interior/battery pack may be ready late in the year.

If I was in the market I would want Raven plus battery pack upgrade with current interior.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Or maybe be able to mix in 1 Maxwell module with 3 Pansonic to get going so it’s not complete swap over.

different cooling requirements, different charge/discharge rates, different degradation rates for capacity at 100% SOC over lifetime of battery, different lifetimes.

This is as bad a choice as building hybrids. Good that you're thinking though. Just not this.

Cheers!

 

[kbM3]

Yes, I think he really thinks that the problem is not his outlandish goals and timelines that he keeps missing, but rather he thinks the problem is people's "outlandish" reaction toward him/Tesla not meeting those goals/timelines. Go figure.

I believe you’re not fully accounting for the innovations, harder work, inspirations and unpaid overtime the outlandish goals bring.

In other words, if Elon stopped the outlandish goals, creativity, productivity and innovation would all go down and costs would go up.