Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AlMc]

My thoughts on JB:

TA, Jerome's baby at Fremont and GF1, takes up most of the battery production at this point.

TE is not ramping, at least not from batteries made at GF1...So, why would JB be hanging around Fremont or GF1 much? I agree with those that feel his time is better spent with Maxwell AND his personal recycling venture AND his young family.

I have never heard of JB sleeping on the factory floor.

I believe he has a good work ethic but not EM....20 hours /day 7 days a week split between Space X and Tesla type hours.

Even IF JB were to be in the process of leaving would it not make sense to do so VERY slowly as to help with any transition AND to help Tesla/EM avoid as much damage to TSLA that certainly the FUDsters would relish/exacerbate.

He could actually stay very 'part time' with Tesla for years while pursuing other interests.

 

[Curt Renz]

Was this in the news in September when the crash allegedly occurred? 'Aladdin' Star Mena Massoud Suing Tesla Over Car Crash

 

[Maitri982]

While being able to sleep (or work) in the car while it is driving itself unattended is the scientific and social Holy Grail of FSD, the actual economic Holy Grail is a much more modest technological milestone:

• "The Tesla FSD car/taxi has to be able to self-drive to its next destination without any passengers on board at all, with high success rates, regulatory permission in at least one major market and low legal exposure."

On the actual trip where there are passengers in the car, one of the passengers is the designated driver with a driving license.

IMO this is the technological milestone that unlocks trillions in taxi, ride sharing and business fleet logistics revenue and enables the Tesla Network - and I agree with Elon that this could happen next year already. (!)

I am talking about something more fundamental. Many here are talking about how great their chip/board is (it is great for sure) , how they lead in training data (they do by far!), and how amazing deep learning neural nets are (they are doing some cool things). BUT...no one seems to question what seems to be the default assumption that given: a great chip/board + gazllion miles of training data + deep learning NN == FSD car.

i am saying that this equation is not a given yet. I believe its possible that its true, but the validation of this proof has not been done yet as we have zero cars that are FSD given this combination of things. Basically I am saying that deep learning networks possibly may not be able to do all that we need for FSD...and maybe they can...but its far from certain at this time. I surely hope they can. I am certain they can take us far beyond where we are currently, which will be great for Tesla no matter what, but all the way to FSD?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Ok this isn’t just any incorrect article. This is an article about Tesla’s longest tenured employee and a cofounder.

It’s funny with all the exec departures in the past it was always “JB is still around” and now that there’s a report saying he hasn’t been around much everyone acts like it doesn’t matter? The sky is always blue in this thread I guess.
This is concerning as hell for me and should be for every investor, JB is a big deal.

Panicking over this piece is no different than going all-in over a thinly-sourced puff piece. Curiously, I don’t ever see you advocating for the latter.

 

[EVMeister]

No one talking about JB at Apple’s newly built dry rooms huh?

No?

 

[Nocturnal]

I found one in Missouri, with the adaptive suspension, and 3.0, so probably a Raven. 2019 Model S | Tesla

I guess I'll have to drive over there and buy it.

 

[HG Wells]

1970s for the 8088.

Brings back fond memories.
8008 1973
8080 1974 Had an Altair a IMSAI a Processor Tech SOL 20. Good Times
8086 1978
8088 1979 Had several IBM PCs
80186 1982
80188 1982 MY FAVORITE TO DESIGN A BOARD WITH

 

[LN1_Casey]

Was this in the news in September when the crash allegedly occurred? 'Aladdin' Star Mena Massoud Suing Tesla Over Car Crash

Because Alladin just came out, and probably Disney has a "hold up" law about negative press that might detract from their movie release.

Also, lawsuits are normally filed months after, since the attorneys have to wait until the police report is done, and then research, ask for initial settlement (if applicable), and then file.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I guess I'll have to drive over there and buy it.

Hey, you may be joking, but I'd drive from Cali to Virginia, or vice versa, if there was a Tesla on the market worth it. xD I've done cross country drives before, and it's not that bad. With AP? Hell yes.

 

[Fact Checking]

BUT...no one seems to question what seems to be the default assumption that given: a great chip/board + gazllion miles of training data + deep learning NN == FSD car.

i am saying that this equation is not a given yet.

And my reply is that your assumption that "FSD car = being able to sleep in it unattended" is a very complex milestone that is not the real economic "FSD car" milestone. The real milestone is "can the car drive itself safely without passengers, to drive to the next customers or back home."

Defining milestones and gating conditions that unlock 'professional Tesla Network FSD revenue' is essential if we want to talk about the probabilities of these developments.

I believe its possible that its true, but the validation of this proof has not been done yet as we have zero cars that are FSD given this combination of things.

Actually, the "car can drive itself unattended with no passengers" is what Tesla effectively demonstrated to select investors at the Autonomy Day in a limited but complex urban environment, and with safety drivers.

Basically I am saying that deep learning networks possibly may not be able to do all that we need for FSD...and maybe they can...but its far from certain at this time. I surely hope they can. I am certain they can take us far beyond where we are currently, which will be great for Tesla no matter what, but all the way to FSD?

And I say that "what we need for FSD" has to be precisely defined, and I did that, and my definition is a much more achievable milestone than the "sleep in the car" FSD milestone you mentioned.

You have to agree that the difference between "sleep in the car FSD" and "no humans in the car FSD" is significant, right?

 

[bramsvs]

Short interest up significantly again, @ihors3, 5 min ago:

$TSLA short interest is $7.37 million; 39.13 million shares shorted; 29.71% of its float; 0.74% borrow fee. Shares shorted increased by +1.01 million shares, +2.7%, this week as #Tesla's stock price declined by -3.7%. Shorts are up $274 million in mark-to-market profits this week
​

 

[Nocturnal]

Hey, you may be joking, but I'd drive from Cali to Virginia, or vice versa, if there was a Tesla on the market worth it. xD I've done cross country drives before, and it's not that bad. With AP? Hell yes.

Oh, it's not the distance for me, I'm close by. It's that pesky 130k price tag.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Oh, it's not the distance for me, I'm close by. It's that pesky 130k price tag.

Yes, that does pose a barrier for most people. xD

Maybe you could go by and test drive the suspension difference.

 

[tander]

Wondering what people are thinking in terms of Chinese Model 3 reservations? On the one hand China is pushing 1.4B so that implies millions of potential buyers. But on the other hand they are only expected to sell about 1.5M electric cars this year, as opposed to 20M-ish cars total, most of which are a lot less expensive than the Model 3, and they are dropping electric incentives. If you assume Model takes 2-3% of the electric market that would be 30-45K, but on the flip side 2-3% of the overall car market would be 4-600K. Anybody want to take a stab at it that has a good perspective on it? Kind of wondering if they will pull in a couple hundred thousand reservations over the weekend or if it will take a lot longer.

 

[Nocturnal]

Yes, that does pose a barrier for most people. xD

Maybe you could go by and test drive the suspension difference.

I'm a 3 owner so it would be wasted on me. Plus I honestly don't want to feel the P100D acceleration. lol

 

[Artful Dodger]

There's some weirdness. HK and Macau only offer SR+. AU and NZ only offer SR+ and Performance. Likewise for the UK and Ireland. What ever happened to LR? It's available in the US. Maybe they aren't making any LR for countries which drive on the left side of the road yet?

LR has few equipment differences than P (upgraded brakes and wheels) Tesla is likely offering product mix to maximize revenue within battery constraints.

Obvious speculation is that Tesla makes the same GM on the SR+ as on the LR+P, or at least more on the 3 SR+ than on 2 LRs.

Cheers!

 

[Nocturnal]

Wondering what people are thinking in terms of Chinese Model 3 reservations? On the one hand China is pushing 1.4B so that implies millions of potential buyers. But on the other hand they are only expected to sell about 1.5M electric cars this year, as opposed to 20M-ish cars total, most of which are a lot less expensive than the Model 3, and they are dropping electric incentives. If you assume Model takes 2-3% of the electric market that would be 30-45K which is kind of underwhelming, but on the flip side 2-3% of the overall car market would be 4-600K. Anybody want to take a stab at it that has a good perspective on it? Kind of wondering if they will pull in a couple hundred thousand reservations over the weekend or if it will take a lot longer.

Tesla has crazy high market share for EVs everywhere in the world that they sell them. If you can hit what, 60% of EV market in the US, then wouldn't 5/10% in China seem reasonable? I'm very curious too but haven't seen any educated guesses.

 

[Papafox]

I guess I'll have to drive over there and buy it.

Maybe I looked in the wrong place, but I didn't see reference to adaptive suspension on that Model S for sale. Please point out where. It's possible there was a reference but it was an error and has been changed by Tesla. Someone, if the adaptive suspension is mentioned, please point out where.

Here's the link.

 

[tander]

Tesla has crazy high market share for EVs everywhere in the world that they sell them. If you can hit what, 60% of EV market in the US, then wouldn't 5/10% in China seem reasonable? I'm very curious too but haven't seen any educated guesses.

I'm not sure if it's comparable in China, where they have over 100 EVs to choose from, many of which are way cheaper than a Tesla. But then again if Tesla can make them more reliable/safer/self driving anything could happen right?

 

[LN1_Casey]

Maybe I looked in the wrong place, but I didn't see reference to adaptive suspension. Please point out where. It's possible there was a reference but it was an error and has been changed by Tsla. Someone, if the adaptive suspension is mentioned, please point out where.

Here's the link.

EV-CPO commented a few pages back that there's a code somewhere that describes the adaptive suspension vs. the regular air version.

Edit: here.

This is one of the rare units that has the adaptive suspension but does NOT have the PMSR motor. In other words, it has the SU03 option code, but no code for the motor (DU02 or DU03).