Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DaveT]

Elektroautos: Tesla Model 3 kann mit Gewinn gebaut werden

 

[juanmedina]

Won't happen. The Roadster battery replacement program worked out to be expensive and frustrated owners (go over to that section of this forum to learn); Tesla's learned their lesson and is not going to offer deep retrofits any more.

The Roadster platform is nothing like the model S, X and 3. The original is more like a kit car than a production car.

I really hope that Tesla offers pack upgrades for my Model P3D as battery technology improves.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Ride the Lightning: Tesla Motors Unofficial Podcast: Episode 200: My Elon Musk Interview

(51 mins in) Elon: Ideally pickup truck will have a maximum starting price under $49,000 (or less).

Goal is to be "functionally better than an F150 and faster than a 911" is what I think he said!

Huge amount of useful information on all the current & future car programs in that hour long interview with the man. definitely worth a listen...

 

[neroden]

The model S/X have a much more swappable battery then the roadster did. Not saying Tesla will do it because they don’t do it with battery sizes on the S/X and it is well known that they can.

It wasn't the swappability which was the issue. Go into the details. The new battery didn't perform as well as people were hoping, and it led to disappointment. It also involved a lot of service labor -- which is in short supply -- and design work with fairly low profit margins. Even with the simpler swap on Model S... still labor time and time in the service centers.

There is a reason that Tesla basically does not offer hardware battery pack upgrades on Model S -- though if your pack fails (so they already have to do a replacement) and you offer to pay them at that time, you can get them to give you a different size pack. They don't think the hassle is worth it. They aren't going to offer a limited edition upgrade for a small number of cars. Their service is stretched too thin for it.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Don’t know if you have counted the one in Webster, Texas under construction. Its been in stealth mode, seemingly. But I checked the other day and there is activity.

Yes, it's in the count. Thanks.

 

[kbM3]

Ride the Lightning: Tesla Motors Unofficial Podcast: Episode 200: My Elon Musk Interview

(51 mins in) Elon: Ideally pickup truck will have a maximum starting price under $49,000 (or less).

Goal is to be "functionally better than an F150 and faster than a 911" is what I think he said!

Another interesting tidbit.

The SpaceX Performance Package for the Roadster 2 provides 3 g’s of thrust. Meaning it can accelerate at 2 g’s straight up, or provide roughly 15,000 lbs of thrust (assuming weight of 5k lbs and I’m not getting confused)

Ergo, the quickest car 0-60 in the world even going straight up! This seems so astounding as to be unbelievable!

 

[RobStark]

Yes.

Interestingly -- That gets BMW from 50% to 75%. Another $4 billion to get the other 25%. Tesla has proven to be able to do a lot more with $8 billion... their wholly owned factory in China costs less than that for 100%.

This is equivalent to BMW buying out half their American dealers.

They are stuck with pre-existing contracts with forced upon them partners.

BMW has to pay what partners are willing to sell for.

Not the cost of factory and equipment.

A brand new Chinese factory with capacity for 500k cars per year isn't going to cost BMW $4B.

 

[Alphacrux]

It wasn't the swappability which was the issue. Go into the details. The new battery didn't perform as well as people were hoping, and it led to disappointment. It also involved a lot of service labor -- which is in short supply -- and design work with fairly low profit margins. Even with the simpler swap on Model S... still labor time and time in the service centers.

There is a reason that Tesla basically does not offer hardware battery pack upgrades on Model S -- though if your pack fails (so they already have to do a replacement) and you offer to pay them at that time, you can get them to give you a different size pack. They don't think the hassle is worth it. They aren't going to offer a limited edition upgrade for a small number of cars. Their service is stretched too thin for it.

At one time, Elon had tweeted a pack upgrade for S90 owners to a 100 kWh pack for $20K. I actively called the service center every couple of months for a year. Finally, I got tired of waiting, and bought a P100D. I think only a few people actually got the upgrade.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Some of that percentage lives in a single family home or townhouse but doesn't own it.

Yeah, but if they’re renting, is the landlord going to allow rewiring the garage?

It’s interesting to me because a new supercharger is under construction halfway between Houston and Galveston. It’s not in the usual loop-interstate intersections (I-45 ends in Galveston). It’s what I would consider a “suburban supercharger”. I would guess there are about 200,000 suburbanites within a 15 mile radius with lots of apartments, condos and home rentals. This would really open up options for those folks to own Teslas and regularly charge at the new supercharger.

 

[pnungesser]

Let's not forget I-40 across Ark and Oka.

 

[pnungesser]

Wow, that’s fast. On average, that 0-60 is almost 2g. I figured Raven might be quicker for the performance S, but wow.

I don't think that is 0-60 time. I think it's the time for the first 60 feet of distance.

 

[RobStark]

Yeah, but if they’re renting, is the landlord going to allow rewiring the garage?

If the renter is willing to pay for it with a licenced electrician the landlord almost always says yes.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Yeah, but if they’re renting, is the landlord going to allow rewiring the garage?

It’s interesting to me because a new supercharger is under construction halfway between Houston and Galveston. It’s not in the usual loop-interstate intersections (I-45 ends in Galveston). It’s what I would consider a “suburban supercharger”. I would guess there are about 200,000 suburbanites within a 15 mile radius with lots of apartments, condos and home rentals. This would really open up options for those folks to own Teslas and regularly charge at the new supercharger.

San Diego county has 5 75 kw supercharger locations, primarily stop and shop or stop and eat locations.

 

[printf42]

The Roadster platform is nothing like the model S, X and 3. The original is more like a kit car than a production car.

I really hope that Tesla offers pack upgrades for my Model P3D as battery technology improves.

Elon had said battery module replacement would cost a few thousand dollars, means it’s entirely possible to replace after the projected 400k mile life.
But don’t expect it to be available much sooner than that just as an upgrade, Tesla will be cell limited for many many years, and there are other places those cells would bring in much higher revenue.

 

[pnungesser]

Which falls exactly into what I said that only those who support the brand (really support it not just own the car because they want to show off their wealth/status or some other superficial thing) can hurt the brand.

Nobody is going to listen gibberish coming out of my mouth about Ford or Chevy (I own one of the latter, it’s been a reliable car but everyone knows I’m not a fan) but they’d sit up and take notice if I started dissing on Tesla.

That’s the difference between owning a brand just because it would serve the purpose in the moment vs owning a brand I truly support. Rest assured I didn’t need to spend that kind of money on a car, I was compelled quite literally. I was driving around in a bloody minivan and perfectly content. In my circle I can’t hurt the Ford or Chevy brand but I can the Tesla brand.

And here’s the thing, those that really support the brand, despite communication/service issues continue to support the brand as evidenced by the various customer surveys/would you buy a Tesla again etc...

So no, the brand is just fine. That is not to say Tesla doesn’t need to continue to improve in those areas of weakness so that true owner and brand support doesn’t fade resulting in those survey numbers taking a dive.

Remember not to get caught up in the handful of people screaming at the top of their lungs. There’s not as many of them as they’d like you to believe.

If the brand "is just fine", why is the share price in the crapper? I ask as a MS owner and long share holder.

 

[Sudre]

These things are not mutually exclusive. Advertising should be done right now. How much ? Probably not more than 10 million dollars but unless totally botched the first money spent on advertising is usually VERY effective an should yield a huge return. This has nothing to do wit fixing other issues that should be fixed and done by other people in the company.

While I do not think advertising is evil or will forever be something that should not be used, I do wonder why investors think now? Since this is the investor thread I am leaning more towards people think TSLA should advertise and not necessarily Tesla should advertising the cars.

From the investor point of view if you do not believe Elon you should probably simply stop investing in Tesla. He is your guide to the company and he is telling you demand IS NOT an issue over and over again. He states why deliveries are where they are and it is not demand. If you don't know what his opinions are on that subject you should read further back in the thread or maybe listen to a Q-call. If you think he is lying/misleading you then stop investing in TSLA.

The only problem I have with advertising at the moment is Tesla can not possibly fill the extra demand it would create and that is a bad thing. Once Tesla has the ability to crank out 500k-1M Model 3s then the advertising should begin. It would probably be good to have Model Y rolling off the line too.

Now maybe you and others know more about advertising lag time than I do. I don't think Tesla makes a 500K or more vehicle run rate until late 4th quarter if not a quarter or two after that with Elon time considerations on GF3. If they advertise now are you saying it will take a few quarters for the public to soak in the information?

 

[EVNow]

If the brand "is just fine", why is the share price in the crapper? I ask as a MS owner and long share holder.

Q1 results. Lots of shorts.

 

[traxila]

If the brand "is just fine", why is the share price in the crapper? I ask as a MS owner and long share holder.

You could focus on all the very specific reasons that are going on right now. Just read the last ten thousand posts.

Or you could just accept that this is how the stock market works for most part. I have seen high quality companies making bank lose fifty percent pretty routinely over the past twenty five years. Many of them blast to all time highs soon afterwards. This is the game. ETFs are a great choice to avoid that type of volatility for the most part. Almost always that is....

 

[Prunesquallor]

San Diego county has 5 75 kw supercharger locations, primarily stop and shop or stop and eat locations.

And I look forward to the day Superchargers are as ubiquitous in Texas as they are in Cali. Right now in the Houston area there are four Superchargers in an area with a population in excess of 5 million. That’s why I find it interesting where they are locating the fifth.

And this is the first I would describe as a “stop and eat” location.

 

[JRP3]

Can I get an “AMEN” on this Sunday!

Is it really that difficult for Tesla to update software for allowing USB???? Stop coming up with retro games and farts, and give me USB functionality.

Games and farts generated a lot more positive press than USB functionality.