Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Wow, that’s fast. On average, that 0-60 is almost 2g. I figured Raven might be quicker for the performance S, but wow.

The 1.539 is 60 feet, not 60 MPH. Still, it is 1.58 Gs, if there was 0 roll out.
The link says it was a 2.3 second 0-60 which is 1.2Gs (again assuming no roll out)
The quarter mile in 10.531 seconds was an average of 0.74 Gs.

 

[neroden]

Other auto companies' expertise lies in manufacturing.

Or is it in service and advertising?

Tesla's expertise is in manufacturing, energy and software/AI.

 

[neroden]

The market cares more about the next few years.

Average analyst estimate is 16% revenue growth this year and 23% next year.

So, they're idiots.

They predict a YOY decline in Q3, which I believe would be Tesla's first as a public company.

So, they're idiots.

The last few quarters capex was less than depreciation.

Good news, they're getting capex under control.

The unsecured bonds yield over 9%. This is not the profile of a healthy hypergrowth company.

Yeah, it is.

 

[neroden]

Yeah -- I was being cautious and had them pencilled as stuck to 100k for every year going forward. oops.

But you can actually boil the entire Tesla story down to a single variable and that's the cost of the model 3 to build. COGS is running about 44k$-45k$ per unit right now and that is nowhere near close to the original target.

The teardown experts believed that COGS could be in the $28K-$30K range. This tells me that the things elevating COGS on Model 3 are... stupid *sugar*. Stuff that any automotive expert could get straightened out. Therefore, things they're going to be able to fix. The COGS will come down.

 

[neroden]

Tesla's products are good enough to support much higher demand, in my opinion, but the majority of potential customers know very little about the cars. So I agree with the posters saying that advertising could increase demand and help ASP and short/mid term financials. On the other hand, I agree philosophically with Elon that putting money into either improving the product or reducing the price creates real unambiguous value for the customer, whereas ads often seem like they create zero or negative value (depending on the information-to-deception ratio).

The problem is that Elon has a MASSIVE blind spot when it comes to human factors.

Fixing the customer communications -- or getting USB music working -- creates real unambiguious value for the customer. Better than advertising, better for the bottom line than reducing the price, better for the top line because it creates good word of mouth.

 

[neroden]

OT

OK although at least half the US population believes the climate change message is nonsense.

Those fools are changing their minds as fast as the hurricanes, tornados, floods, droughts, and migrating insects devastate their businesses.

 

[Krugerrand]

NOA update for @VValleyEV

Ok, so changed the lane confirmation setting to no and just finished a to and from airport run set like that. Mad Max setting as well because, duh, who wouldn’t?

No mistakes by the car. No dangerous maneuvers. A couple of lane changes to move into faster lanes that I wouldn’t have normally done because I’m a pretty chill driver 99% of the time - not in a hurry to go nowhere.

The car made a couple of impressive moves. Another funky merge lane with the car slowing on its own to allow others to merge rather than blocking them. Another great save when starting a lane change and identifying a very fast approaching vehicle from behind on the left changing lanes into the lane my car wanted. A good non-reaction when a car cut in - previously I’ve had the car brake heavily to get to follow distance, now it does it more gradually in most cases. And one instance of maintaining its path when the road lines went for crap - road crew was high or something, not just off but criss crossed and curved and even I was wth!? where to go!?

One lane change into a faster lane with a faster vehicle approaching. Not a dangerous lane change, but the vehicle caught up to us quickly and then we were slowing it down. I just increased max speed, passed the car on the right and then had the car change back into previous lane.

One thing that still sometimes confuses the car is when two lanes become one, the car will sometimes move over to be in the middle of the new lane that is still 1.5 lanes wide (at which point I’m sure the drivers behind me are ???) and at other times it’ll stay to the left or right as it should.

So absolutely nothing on my part to be dramatic about. Nothing scary going on - other than the car is bloody well driving itself and makes you feel like it’s thinking - .

I feel confident it can handle a lot of situations, even some tricky ones. Whenever a new/tricky situation is developing on the highway, I just get up on the wheel a little bit and prepare to intervene.

Lately I’ve found myself scolding friends who aren’t using it or using it much. I keep telling them they need to use it so they can help Tesla make it better. It’s their civic duty!

So, yeah. It’s working quite well, IMO.

 

[KSilver2000]

Ride the Lightning: Tesla Motors Unofficial Podcast: Episode 200: My Elon Musk Interview

(51 mins in) Elon: Ideally pickup truck will have a maximum starting price under $49,000 (or less).

Goal is to be "functionally better than an F150 and faster than a 911" is what I think he said!

“Ideally” and “should” will end up being not realistic. (Gotta account for Elon’s optimism factor).

For the truck to be functionally better than F150 and faster than 911, it needs to be as fast as P3D and have payload capacity of about 2,000lb. Even the entry R1T is only stated to have 1,670lb rating. (By comparison, the X payload cap is only a little more than half ton). The “ideally” scenario would require a crap ton of batteries.

On the flip side, technically, he didn’t specify which F150 and 911 he’s comparing to. I guess he could be comparing to ones from 30-40 years ago.

 

[neroden]

very strange. It was up there for a while, but I don't see it either...

Oho. They took down your reasoned response.

Looks like you're dealing with a propaganda website there... you might want to double-check (from independent sources) everything else they say.

 

[neroden]

That's not new; it's 15 months old. Even cleaner now!

Actually, it's 15 months old from *2016* data. It'll be a while before we get 2018 data (not until 2020, and later if the Trump maladministration delays the data release), but it's gonna be really impressive.

 

[KSilver2000]

getting USB music working

Can I get an “AMEN” on this Sunday!

Is it really that difficult for Tesla to update software for allowing USB???? Stop coming up with retro games and farts, and give me USB functionality.

 

[neroden]

P.S. I have an idea for Elon on how to move out Model S pre-Raven inventory w/o having to resort to deep discounts: Start a waiting list now for 'Maxcell' battery pack swaps for the Model S only. Provide a Right of 1st Refusal to new 'S' owners when the upgrade becomes available. Make it clear that these special owners will get the new 'Maxcell' tech YEARS EARLIER than regular customers.

Won't happen. The Roadster battery replacement program worked out to be expensive and frustrated owners (go over to that section of this forum to learn); Tesla's learned their lesson and is not going to offer deep retrofits any more.

 

[neroden]

Extremely unlikely.

Where Does the Car Dealer Make Money? | Edmunds

“So where does the majority of a dealership's profit come from? It's not from car sales, at least not directly. It's from the service and parts department, which accounts for 44 percent of the dealership's gross profits, according to NADA.”

I used to bring my gas car in for service about every 6 months.

I bring my Tesla in to an independent service shop to change between summer and winter tires every 6 months. There is work to be done on these cars.

 

[RobStark]

It also means that somehow, 44% of Mod3 owners find a way to charge without wiring their garage.

Some of that percentage lives in a single family home or townhouse but doesn't own it.

 

[neroden]

It also means that somehow, 44% of Mod3 owners find a way to charge without wiring their garage.

Not necessarily. There's a thing called "renting a house". Very common in more rural or small town areas, and large parts of suburbia. Plenty of people are charging in garages wired by their landlord. The cost of putting in a charger is small enough in many cases -- particularly if the breaker box is in the garage already -- that the tenant may just pay for it after asking the landlord's permission.

 

[Beltsbear]

The problem is that Elon has a MASSIVE blind spot when it comes to human factors.

Fixing the customer communications -- or getting USB music working -- creates real unambiguious value for the customer. Better than advertising, better for the bottom line than reducing the price, better for the top line because it creates good word of mouth.

These things are not mutually exclusive. Advertising should be done right now. How much ? Probably not more than 10 million dollars but unless totally botched the first money spent on advertising is usually VERY effective an should yield a huge return. This has nothing to do wit fixing other issues that should be fixed and done by other people in the company.

 

[neroden]

Yah I hear ya. We drive two EV’s, neither a Tesla. Both 4 ish years old and neither one has ever been back to a dealership and the only maintenance has been washer fluid. But I think it’s a point of reassurance to see the brand represented. I like the idea of the rangers. But they must operate out of somewhere. How about a big shiny Tesla sign over their shop. I hear it at work all the time. “As soon as they put a dealership in (fill in the blank) I’ll consider a Tesla”. For some it is a concern.

Jmho

Yeah. I explain to people that Tesla runs their own service centers, and then they say, "OK, as soon as they put in a service center in (fill in the blank) I'll get one".

The Albany and Rochester service centers are going to cause demand to boom in upstate NY. I'm sure similar "demand levers" are being pulled nationwide as the service centers roll out.

 

[Krugerrand]

The brand is actually being damaged by the repeated customer communications fiascos.

The FUD? It only takes one test drive to counteract THAT.

The customer communications fiascos do long-term brand damage.

Which falls exactly into what I said that only those who support the brand (really support it not just own the car because they want to show off their wealth/status or some other superficial thing) can hurt the brand.

Nobody is going to listen gibberish coming out of my mouth about Ford or Chevy (I own one of the latter, it’s been a reliable car but everyone knows I’m not a fan) but they’d sit up and take notice if I started dissing on Tesla.

That’s the difference between owning a brand just because it would serve the purpose in the moment vs owning a brand I truly support. Rest assured I didn’t need to spend that kind of money on a car, I was compelled quite literally. I was driving around in a bloody minivan and perfectly content. In my circle I can’t hurt the Ford or Chevy brand but I can the Tesla brand.

And here’s the thing, those that really support the brand, despite communication/service issues continue to support the brand as evidenced by the various customer surveys/would you buy a Tesla again etc...

So no, the brand is just fine. That is not to say Tesla doesn’t need to continue to improve in those areas of weakness so that true owner and brand support doesn’t fade resulting in those survey numbers taking a dive.

Remember not to get caught up in the handful of people screaming at the top of their lungs. There’s not as many of them as they’d like you to believe.

 

[RobStark]

That’s a willful choice, one way or another.

I’m not on Twitter; no account and yet I know what Elon Musk and Tesla and others related to those two are saying on Twitter.

I use FB minimally compared to most and yet I know what’s going on on that platform, know how it works etc...

Ignorance isn’t an excuse, it’s a choice.



I disagree. They kind of are against Tesla and all that it stands for. It might not be a direct link but for those who believe TV is the best/only place to get their news, they might as well be auditioning for the main character role in The Mule.



It seems some of you are thinking or even expecting that Tesla needs to sell cars to every demographic on the planet. While I’d love Tesla to do that for my own obvious personal gains (and the goal is to put electric in every single driveway/garage/front yard etc.), it’s not realistic especially if the human race plans on existing on this planet.

There’s so much more that has to be done in a very short space of time that a single Tesla just can’t conceivably do it all. It’s amazing how much they have done in the last ten years but good lord look what else has to happen!!!

Point being, Tesla has enough easier-to-reach potential customers to get cars to without having to spend money (better spent a million different ways) than in traditional manners like TV ads. Never mind the fact that the new generation doesn’t do TV like the current or previous generation. That whole industry is also transitioning.



There’s a lot of reasons for this, least of all not having traditional advertising.

Wealthy Americans over 50 that don't live on the internet are not necessarily willfully ignorant nor "every demographic on the planet."

It is a target rich environment for Tesla to sell into.

 

[Beltsbear]

Won't happen. The Roadster battery replacement program worked out to be expensive and frustrated owners (go over to that section of this forum to learn); Tesla's learned their lesson and is not going to offer deep retrofits any more.

The model S/X have a much more swappable battery then the roadster did. Not saying Tesla will do it because they don’t do it with battery sizes on the S/X and it is well known that they can.