Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

100k+ dumped to push below 205 temporarily. Nasdaq is flat.

Today it all looks like big boys fighting over max pain levels.

BTW, since there are a large number of market makers, it is likely that they have different max pain points. So, won't be surprised if lot of the battle is really among the MMs.

 

[samk579]

Sales numbers also have to do with rebates from BC.
We had the extra $5000 incentive from BC gov and it feels like it's now or never before the incentive funds runs out. One person I referred already cancelled their order, maybe it was due to hype or bad quality.

I calculated an overall annual saving of only $2000.

 

[dqd88]

Your wish is granted. Elon didn't say that.
Q3. Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Q3 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript -- The Motley Fool


Q4 transcript Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript -- The Motley Fool

He didn't say exactly that, but it was close enough; that's how it was interpreted. Elon did not guide for a huge loss Q1.

 

[dqd88]

If Tesla hits 33k this month then about 93k for the quarter.

Go see the quarterly thread there’s been a lot of discussion on it.

I know I just wanted your personal estimate. I guess I'm trying to understand how you see the "slowdown" in China deliveries that you are hinting at, how that will affect overall Q2 deliveries.

 

[dqd88]

There's been one major victim of "Peak Oil Finance" already, the spectacular fall of General Electric:

"GE bet on fossil fuels, lost nearly $200B in misjudging renewable energy transition, study says"

https://electrek.co/2019/06/06/ge-renewable-energy-transition/
​

The irony is that General Electric, as its historic name suggests, was one of the disruptors and big winners of the second (third by some) industrial revolution: electricity, gas and oil.

But GE missed the fifth industrial revolution: renewables and the electrification of transportation.

Just curious, what are the 3rd and fourth industrial revolutions?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Robinhood users are still buying.

 

[Fact Checking]

Good summary. The difference between interest and theta here is that interest compounds but allows you to keep the position option; theta doesn't compound but your position goes to zero at the end.

This is true, but note that if you buy theta-only options and the bet did not pay off you can do so again once you expect it to expire worthless, with another far-out theta-only LEAP option.

The worst-case for that kind of strategy is a slow, gradual rise that continuously pushes out theta-only DOTM options without you ever realizing the gains. This can be counter-acted by buying such LEAPs during severe drops of the SP.

But overall there's no free lunch and on average it's option writers (dominantly banks) that win.

 

[CorneliusXX]

That's interesting to know. A few months ago I visited Palo Alto, I can see the whole town is switching to Tesla. Last week I went to Ithaca, in 4 days I didn't see one Tesla. I was thinking what's wrong with these people? I view this as future demand - all the gasoline car drivers on the road.

NYT has an article "The Car Industry Is Under Siege". I read through the comments, I think those comments reflect the public perception toward EV. FUD has really done it's job. No wonder everyday people buy 200,000 new gasoline vehicles while we already have this fantastic Model 3 available. They need a test drive and a good info session.

The "under siege" statement is what bugs me. It's not that EVs are besieging ICE manufacturers, ICE manufacturers have been holding the world hostage in terms of pollution and people are now being liberated by EVs to live a better life.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

I know I just wanted your personal estimate. I guess I'm trying to understand how you see the "slowdown" in China deliveries that you are hinting at, how that will affect overall Q2 deliveries.

Q2 numbers are pretty much set at 7k now for China* unless there’s inventory in China , with an additional 1k+/- to Japan.

To me its more of a question for Q3, you are looking at 10,072 3’s sent to China in Q1 versus maybe 4,000 in Q2. If you are the biggest bull in the world that’s got to make you question Chinese demand going forward into Q3, which is why I asked the question to Mars Emperor about how he views the Tesla brand in China

*edit this assumes there’s no inventory. If there’s inventory it still implies weaker sales of higher end margin to China.

 

[Fact Checking]

Just curious, what are the 3rd and fourth industrial revolutions?

There's no real agreement on that.

Here's the major ones I see:

1. Steam engine and the victory of progressive science over regressive superstition
2. Electrification of industry, oil and gas and the resulting enablement of electricity driven mass production
   
3. Software (digital technologies)
4. Robotization of industry (and AIs), containerization
   
5. Renewables, electrification of transportation, self-driving.

Note how the 5th unifies the 2nd, 3rd and 4th and completes the elimination of the "human robot" from industrial production (human workers).

(The 6th industrial revolution might as well be Musk Industries building an interplanetary industrial base. )

 

[CorneliusXX]

To put it more succinctly: with margin, you pay interest. With calls, you pay theta. Either way, you pay for amplifying the motion of the stock, beyond taking on the risk of amplifying negative movements.

Agreed. You pay for either price or time limits- although there are mitigants in both situations.

 

[Boomer19]

OT: Antifa



Correct, many on the right don't even know the origin of the "Antifa" term:

Anti-fascism - Wikipedia​

These were the anti-fascist heroes of WWII, members of the Dutch resistance, who risked being immediately executed by the Nazi occupiers if caught:

These are caught members of the French Resistance, shortly before their summary execution:

Modern Antifa defines itself as continuing this fight against ideological descendants of Nazi white supremacists.

inglorious basterds

 

[LN1_Casey]

A funny video about stock trading, if anyone's interested.

 

[Fact Checking]

NYT has an article "The Car Industry Is Under Siege". I read through the comments, I think those comments reflect the public perception toward EV. FUD has really done it's job. No wonder everyday people buy 200,000 new gasoline vehicles while we already have this fantastic Model 3 available. They need a test drive and a good info session.

The "under siege" statement is what bugs me. It's not that EVs are besieging ICE manufacturers, ICE manufacturers have been holding the world hostage in terms of pollution and people are now being liberated by EVs to live a better life.

True, but the #1 task of a bad faith propagandist agitator (which the New York Times is in this context) is to continuously re-define the narrative, to spew out a constant stream of smear attacks against the disruptor (Tesla), and to paint the regressive status quo (gascar makers) in the false light of victims.

 

[StealthP3D]

I can only speak for myself and those I know who own a Tesla (actually a fair number of people) - not one of us has had quality issues with our Teslas.

I do my own research before I buy a stock. The reason I'm not worried about Tesla quality is the result of that research showed that Tesla had ZERO serious quality problems on their first mass-produced car, the Model 3. We bought 2 Model 3's, one in May '18 and one in Sept. and both have been perfect. Every Tesla owner I meet I ask them about quality/reliability and I still haven't met one that had a single serious issue. This is outrageously good for a first model year, clean sheet design for ANY manufacturer, let alone a small upstart.

I didn't buy a single share of TSLA until after I had purchased their most important product and spoken, in person, with numerous other owners. I ALWAYS ask them if they have had any issues. While the Internet is full of stories of panel gaps, imperfect paint, etc, I have studied hundreds of exteriors at delivery centers. I have a keen eye for slight mismatches, unparallel lines, etc. I can see these things on every car I look at with a critical eye, Toyota's, Honda's, Teslas, they all have them. Tesla is a little noticeably worse (on average) than most other mainstream cars in terms of body panel precision but nothing I've seen has given me pause. You know why? Because it simply doesn't matter! Real car buyers either can't notice it at all or they simply don't care as long as it's slight. The hundreds of Tesla I have studied up close have mostly been nearly perfect.

I don't know, maybe they send the best ones to Washington State?

 

[Nocturnal]

There's no real agreement on that.

Here's the major ones I see:

1. Steam engine and the victory of progressive science over regressive superstition
2. Electrification of industry, oil and gas and the resulting enablement of electricity driven mass production
   
3. Software (digital technologies)
4. Robotization of industry (and AIs), containerization
   
5. Renewables, electrification of transportation, self-driving.

Note how the 5th unifies the 2nd, 3rd and 4th and completes the elimination of the "human robot" from industrial production (human workers).

(The 6th industrial revolution might as well be Musk Industries building an interplanetary industrial base. )

The 6th is probably the singularity.

I do my own research before I buy a stock. The reason I'm not worried about Tesla quality is the result of that research showed that Tesla had ZERO serious quality problems on their first mass-produced car, the Model 3. We bought 2 Model 3's, one in May '18 and one in Sept. and both have been perfect. Every Tesla owner I meet I ask them about quality/reliability and I still haven't met one that had a single serious issue. This is outrageously good for a first model year, clean sheet design for ANY manufacturer, let alone a small upstart.

I didn't buy a single share of TSLA until after I had purchased their most important product and spoken, in person, with numerous other owners. I ALWAYS ask them if they have had any issues. While the Internet is full of stories of panel gaps, imperfect paint, etc, I have studied hundreds of exteriors at delivery centers. I have a keen eye for slight mismatches, unparallel lines, etc. I can see these things on every car I look at with a critical eye, Toyota's, Honda's, Teslas, they all have them. Tesla is a little noticeably worse (on average) than most other mainstream cars in terms of body panel precision but nothing I've seen has given me pause. You know why? Because it simply doesn't matter! Real car buyers either can't notice it at all or they simply don't care as long as it's slight. The hundreds of Tesla I have studied up close have mostly been nearly perfect.

I don't know, maybe they send the best ones to Washington State?

I initially invested back in 2014 and sold my position to buy a home. I wasn't too gung ho to get back in at higher prices...until I received my model 3. The next day I started buying stock. Unfortunately it went down, before going way up in Q3/4. The product was just too good and I felt it would be a pretty good bet.

 

[printf42]

I really do not see any evidence that "days spent loading" is an accurate correlate to "number of cars loaded". Prove me wrong. Isn't it possible that they got more efficient at loading cars?!?

Smart summon anyone?

 

[Tslynk67]

You should message the moderator privately. They don't like it when you talk about them publicly.

I mentioned the moderator once, but I think I got away with it

 

[Pezpunk]

Q2 numbers are pretty much set at 7k now for China, with an additional 1k+/- to Japan.

To me its more of a question for Q3, you are looking at 10,072 3’s sent to China in Q1 versus maybe 4,000 in Q2. If you are the biggest bull in the world that’s got to make you question Chinese demand going forward into Q3, which is why I asked the question to Mars Emperor about how he views the Tesla brand in China

there's a lot more to the Chinese story than just 2 numbers, though. the story of Q2 is people were holding out to see if the Chinese-made Teslas would be wildly cheaper. now that we know they're not, we should see demand for imported Teslas resume.

 

[Pezpunk]

The 6th is probably the singularity.

technological or gravitational? honestly, i'm close to rooting for either one at this point.