Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[shrspeedblade]

...and sometimes the cretin who is spewing non $TSLA related BS and needs to stop is you!
(hint) (edit-not directed specifically at Rob)

I was pretty excited when we got over $210 this morning, but it got capped pretty hard. It will be interesting to see if all the selling around 11am was short term profit taking or the shorts just keep piling on. Looking at BYND this morning, it looks like a crazy gamble far too often.

 

[Tslynk67]

At the risk of this going political, I am FAR from a liberal. In fact I am as far right as many on here are left. That said, I love my Tesla and I love what the company represents. These cars and this company transcend political labels. It's just one of those things that are right (I mean correct) no matter what your social, financial, or political leanings. I just don't get the liberal/conservative arguments that it is one or the other. It's an American company with far superior products that are going to make the world a better place...whether you believe in climate change or not. Face it, nobody would prefer to wrap your lips around a tailpipe and breath what comes out of it, no matter who you voted for.

The sooner we get past this political banter regarding Tesla the better for all involved.

Dan

I know, Dan the man, you spent half of last week defending OI. I understand that Teslas transcend politics, if anything I see more hate from liberals towards them than anyone else - I get the impression they think we're all privileged or something, forgetting that the vast majority of us can own such a car because a) we're quite smart, b) applied that smartness in our careers, c) worked our asses off most of our lives.

So my comment was very my tongue-in-cheek.

 

[dc_h]

I think the screen now says "Just Relax". Hopefully he's signalling to us stock holders.

Apparently Robert Zubrin is working with Spacex on a plan for the Mars colony. He was giving a speech yesterday or today.

 

[Mokuzai]

Wow, you made this? You need more followers on twitter! I followed
It's hard to follow the model 3 on there because it moves so fast. Wish I could watch in slow mo

Thanks! The original version was actually much slower and people wanted it faster. I uploaded these to youtube now which has speed controls.

 

[lascavarian]

Were you following another car or were you on the road alone?

Message confirmed. Not following.

 

[dqd88]

I keep reading in articles about Tesla, even the positive ones, that in spite of the good signs they have a long way to go because they are “not profitable”.

Isn’t this, at least for now, a conscious choice, to forgo short-term profits for flat-out growth? Even the big loss in Q1 is in large part due to costs of expansion of the M3 into Europe. They chose growth in spite of an expected short-term loss from inventory buildup and delivery logistics issues. Of course other factors made it worse - the late ramp-up to Raven and leaks about it tanking the 100D sales, for example.

If the margins on Teslas are truly so much better than those of ICE OEMs, and even better than the EVs manufactured by ICE OEMs, and EV sales are climbing while ICE are falling, and FSD is the icing on the cake (or maybe a new cake), why is there any question about profitability?

Maybe I am just a TMC cult fanatic investor, impervious to the “real” facts.

Well, Elon decided to satisfy Wall St last year and cater to a profit driven narrative when he said Tesla would be profitable every quarter. I wish he hadn't of done that. He reset an expectation. Now it would be hard to go back to "hey we're gonna focus on growth in lieu of profits". Now it's a blend of growth and profit. But since he has guided for profit Tesla does have to be clearly trending towards sustainable profit, which I think it is. 2019 should be close to profit, and I think beyond 2019 every year will be profitable. In 10 years the profits will be robust and way higher than any current OEM.

It is hard to know the exact truth; too many voices; too much noise. Too many emotions on each side. Like many I'm sure, I have an emotional/subjective view (the idealist in us wants this change in the world), yet also try to maintain an objective view (we as investors want to maximize our return in any scenario).
Some bears have a point in that some metrics, such as quick ratio, are not optimal, but they also are only looking at the present and any view of the future points to a "demand problem", whereas bulls believe demand will continue to grow and hence those "ratios" will normalize over time.
At the end of the day, this is a high risk high reward stock. It does have the chance to reinvent the industry and in a best case scenario could see a $1T market cap. But as we all know to get there we have to go through a long, loaded minefield.
I'd like to see stronger institutional hands in the stock to prevent major dips. But seems institutions are quite risk averse.

 

[Fact Checking]

There's going to be an ~18 month period of transition where those in power shift their money from financing oil to financing renewables and we're certainly within sight of that period. The oil markets are flashing indicators of peak finance approaching. US oil production is so high that we can take up almost any slack until global demand peaks in 2023/24/25. Half the US fracking industry is teetering close to bankruptcy if there's any significant stretch of low pricing. Saudi Arabia is having a tough time selling bonds. China has bought up most distressed assets(Venezuela, Africa, etc).

Good phrase! "Peak finance"

I have been trying for years to figure out when "peak oil finance" will happen. It is perplexing to me because oil discoveries flatlined back in 2008 -- money spent on oil exploration has been a net loss since then. And yet the money KEEPS FLOWING. I don't understand the psychology of the oil financiers, and I don't know how to tell when they're actually going to stop throwing their money down holes in the ground. (If you have further thoughts on this please go over to the "Shorting Oil" thread!)

There's been one major victim of "Peak Oil Finance" already, the spectacular fall of General Electric:

"GE bet on fossil fuels, lost nearly $200B in misjudging renewable energy transition, study says"

https://electrek.co/2019/06/06/ge-renewable-energy-transition/
​

The irony is that General Electric, as its historic name suggests, was one of the disruptors and big winners of the second (third by some) industrial revolution: electricity, gas and oil.

But GE missed the fifth industrial revolution: renewables and the electrification of transportation.

 

[JRP3]

I assume you would do the same with antifa?

I guess you have forgotten that "antifa" were fighting the Nazis in WWII.

 

[TradingInvest]

I noticed something strange. In the past, under every Tesla article on Yahoo, there were tons of comments from Tesla haters. Same for other websites. Now they all mysteriously disappeared. Were those all from bashing bots? or from a group of paid bashers that their master told them to hold? Now all comments seem to support Tesla.

The switch is so dramatic. I think this is a sign that the bashing was organized.

 

[mongo]

Well, Elon decided to satisfy Wall St last year and cater to a profit driven narrative when he said Tesla would be profitable every quarter. I wish he hadn't of done that.

Your wish is granted. Elon didn't say that.
Q3. Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Q3 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript -- The Motley Fool

Moreover, we expect to again have a positive net income and cash flow in Q4 and I believe our aspirations certainly will be for all quarters going forward. I think we can actually be positive cash flow and profitable for all quarters going forward, leaving aside quarters where we may need to do a significant repayment, for example in Q1 next year, but I think even in Q1, I think we can be approximately flat in cash flow by end of quarter.

Q4 transcript Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript -- The Motley Fool

So, we're working every aspect of that logistics chain. And I think we've -- I think it's going to be good. I would say at this point, I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1. Not by a lot, but I'm optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and for all quarters going forward.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

So what's your estimate for total Q2 deliveries?

If Tesla hits 33k this month then about 93k for the quarter.

Go see the quarterly thread there’s been a lot of discussion on it.

 

[Nocturnal]

I guess you have forgotten that "antifa" were fighting the Nazis in WWII.

OT but I can't resist. It's a terrible shame that so many Americans are just fine with defending Nazis these days but Antifa types are idiots in in their own ways and actually give the Nazis what they want. Attention, and the ability to pretend to be the real victims.

I know, Dan the man, you spent half of last week defending OI. I understand that Teslas transcend politics, if anything I see more hate from liberals towards them than anyone else - I get the impression they think we're all privileged or something, forgetting that the vast majority of us can own such a car because a) we're quite smart, b) applied that smartness in our careers, c) worked our asses off most of our lives.

So my comment was very my tongue-in-cheek.

Certainly that is not the case here in the US. The typical hater drives a truck that costs more than an SR+. The guys damaging chargers and blocking superchargers aren't liberals. But aside from that I agree. It's insane that a car is something that causes a political argument.

Even if you don't care about pollution and climate change, you can support Teslas for growing US jobs etc.

 

[keydiver]

They have been told that since God gave us the earth then it is impossible to damage it. Literally insane. There is no room to disagree there. Objectively it is obviously possible to damage the environment.

When did TMC turn into a Christian-bashing website?
BTW, Revelation 11:18 says that God "will bring to ruin those RUINING the earth". How does that fit in with your obvious mis-information?

 

[Tslynk67]

While I agree 100% with what you have said sadly it is not always reality. Just the other day one of my Fox News loving right-Wing coworkers asked another coworker of mine to find were I have my car plugged in and cut off the cord.

He just can’t fathom that I would by the car for any other reason than I am a tree hugging liberal hippie.

I think this has nothing to do with their political affiliations and everything to do with them being morons.

 

[Fact Checking]

OT: Antifa

I guess you have forgotten that "antifa" were fighting the Nazis in WWII.

Correct, many on the right don't even know the origin of the "Antifa" term:

Anti-fascism - Wikipedia​

These were the anti-fascist heroes of WWII, members of the Dutch resistance, who risked being immediately executed by the Nazi occupiers if caught:

These are caught members of the French Resistance, shortly before their summary execution:

Modern Antifa defines itself as continuing this fight against ideological descendants of Nazi white supremacists.

 

[EVNow]

OT :

but on the other hand ZERO cholesterol.

People are still thinking of cholesterol ?! Dietary intake of cholesterol has nothing to do with how much LDL-P someone has.

 

[Fred42]

The icons are grey, so they haven't been built yet**. But we're European here Non-EU, but EFTA.

** I don't know the Supercharger construction status, but I stop by the service centre every couple days to check on its progress

I would think the store manager would stop by more often.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Well, volume dropped off a cliff and the SP went with it... not seeing any news

 

[Nocturnal]

When did TMC turn into a Christian-bashing website?
BTW, Revelation 11:18 says that God "will bring to ruin those RUINING the earth". How does that fit in with your obvious mis-information?

I'm not bashing Christians, I'm bashing the ones that think they can pollute and destroy the earth at whim. It's not MY mis-information. I'm also aware that there are some Christian sects that actually want to protect the environment. The local mega-church (Methodist) invited our Tesla club to their Earth Day sermon and called out EVs as a way to be good caretakers. I'm an atheist/Buddhist myself so I don't begrudge anyone's personal beliefs. (as long as they don't harm me)

 

[mrmage]

I will take the risk that I won't be too popular here with my opinion but... If you want to invest all your money, diversify. Greed and FOMO are never good advisers. You might end up earning a lot of money, but nobody sees into the future and nobody really knows what will happen next. There are a lot of very experienced long time investors here, most of them are very bullish on Tesla. Let's see what they say about your position.

The young should feel free to take risks because they have time to recover, and diversify when they get older. If someone is informed and comfortable with the risk for where they are in life, they should go for it.

A first time entrepreneur who puts all their money to start their own company is taking a greater risk than investing everything in Tesla. A 70 yo with net worth $20M probably should not.