Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CyberDutchie]

I think there is a good chance they'll miss Wall Street estimates. When Adam Jonas said Wall Street's whisper number was in the mid- to high-70K area and most analysts were extremely negative, the FactSet estimate was an extremely optimistic 92K. The Media's Story About Tesla Is Wrong, Facts Tell Another | CleanTechnica

Now that there is positive news on deliveries that puts 90K+ in reach, FactSet's estimate will probably jump higher, making it hard to reach. That number appears to be gamed by analysts.

Hope to be proven wrong. In any case, in the long run, the games won't matter as long as Tesla keeps performing.

Adam Jonas hasn’t given his forecast for Q2 but for the whole year it is 347K, which means 284K for the remaining three quarters, or 95K each quarter from now on. So he definitely changed his tune.

Btw. has anyone looked at this site before? Consensus there is 82,786 deliveries for Q2.

TSLA - Tesla Inc. Crowdsourced Earnings Estimates - Estimize

 

[EVNow]

I was disagreeing that we can know with any certainty they won't make a profit on the outlined scenario for at least three uncertainties, maybe other ones I haven't thought of:

1) We don't know how much lower the ASP will be due to unknown mix of trim levels, and
2) Unknown how much they were able to lower expenses in Q2. There was significant cost-cutting
3) Unknown recognition of carbon credits

I tend to agree a small loss is likely but I'm open to a surprise profit. If the overseas deliveries go off without a hitch I think it's possible and this is what I think they are shooting for.

Oh yes, there are a lot of uncertainties. Anything is possible.

So, any of those can go the other way round too. For eg., I'm assuming 3 ASP goes down from 56k to 53k. It can also go down more. Also I'm assuming the S/X ASP goes UP from 103k to 105k (because of higher optioned Raven sales). It may go down instead because of deep pre-Raven S/X discounts. Also I'm assuming the margin will increase from 20.3% to 21% - which may not.

Anyway, the EPS the market looks at is non-GAAP. That is what all the analysts give estimates on (AFAIK) and I think they can break-even with 92k deliveries. Interestingly, in the third email Musk mentions they can break-even (if they bring down delivery costs) and I think non-gaap is what he is referring to.

We also need to address the total cost of getting a car from our factory to the customer. Last quarter, there were many expedite fees and routing inefficiencies that led to higher than expected delivery costs. This makes it much harder for Tesla to break even.

 

[EinSV]

Adam Jonas hasn’t given a forecast for Q2 but for the whole year it is 347K, which means 284K for the remaining three quarters, or 95K each quarter from now on. So he definitely changed his tune.

Btw. has anyone looked at this site before? Consensus there is 82,786 deliveries for Q2.

TSLA - Tesla Inc. Crowdsourced Earnings Estimates - Estimize

During his infamous May 22 conference call Jonas said they were estimating 82,000 for Q2. That was before the info that leaked last week so I don't know if they've revised it since then.

 

[M3Rider]

Tesla are *aiming* to do 33k in June, but that doesnt mean that they can, or will. It seems aspirational to me. I'd be amazed (and overjoyed) if they shipped 100k in Q2. I'd be very happy with 90k, and not disappointed with 85k.
I think even 85k would see a big stock pop. 100+ would be a dramatic stock pop.

Thanks, I compared my figures for March/April and my source for France was incorrect, but most other countries are in line. June figures are a rough guess, but very plausible for NA/EU.

33k in NA is only 1100/day. Elon's leaked email said they already averaging 900 model 3's a day and pushing for 1000/day. That leaves 200 for S/X which shouldn't be a problem.

Before people get carried away with 100-110k deliveries based on assumption of the entire max June output delivered, may I remind you about THE WAVE, which supposedly is being reduced?

If we remember about 10k in transit in Q1 and assume 15k in transit in Q2, then this 15k has a high chance of coming out from June output.

I.e. 1k/day = 30k produced in June, but only 15k delivered and 15k in transit.

There's a chance that Elon decides to maximize Q2 deliveries and puts the output of the first 2 weeks of Q3 on ships, but this is far from guaranteed and the wave would still be there as opposed to what was communicated in Q1 call.

 

[RobStark]

The US does not need to make discriminatory subsidies against foreign car makers, it just needs to stop doing the opposite.

Putting a 200k limit doesn't do the opposite.

Every automaker gets 200k credits.

BTW Nobody wants the current system going forward. Most Republicans want to eliminate the credit while most Democrats want to expand the credit to $10k for X number of years. In the current ideological and partisan climate compromise is a dirty word on both sides of the aisle so we have gridlock.

 

[RobStark]

Can you point me to that rule? I am many 9s sure I read that knock down kits and rebadged versions were not unique manufacturers and would not qualify, but I've been unable to recreate the rabbit hole that led me there.

Sorry, didn't save a link.

Not chasing that rabit.

 

[Pras]

Before people get carried away with 100-110k deliveries based on assumption of the entire max June output delivered, may I remind you about THE WAVE, which supposedly is being reduced?

If we remember about 10k in transit in Q1 and assume 15k in transit in Q2, then this 15k has a high chance of coming out from June output.

I.e. 1k/day = 30k produced in June, but only 15k delivered and 15k in transit.

There's a chance that Elon decides to maximize Q2 deliveries and puts the output of the first 2 weeks of Q3 on ships, but this is far from guaranteed and the wave would still be there as opposed to what was communicated in Q1 call.

Agree. 91k already seems a very optimistic view and if not for the email I would be hesitant of that number as well.

 

[larmor]

But whose projections are we talking about here? Why do the projections of analysts suddenly change a week before numbers come out so they can seemingly claim victory and scream about Tesla's demise? Why are they allowed to move the goal posts seemingly at will but if the company adjusts an estimate or motivates employees with high demands and expectations then they all scream how "Elon lied again" and "Tesla is nothing but a fraud"? I don't get it.

Dan

The analysts business is to make money they do this by providing flexible guidance and the difference between the guidance and reality allows them to make a profit that is their business. I’m sure if one looked at the fine print of the analysts it would basically say this is for entertainment purposes only.

 

[CyberDutchie]

During his infamous May 22 conference call Jonas said they were estimating 82,000 for Q2. That was before the info that leaked last week so I don't know if they've revised it since then.

Ok, then their forecast for Q3 and Q4 must be 100K each to make their 347K number for the year. At 7,000 / week, hasn’t Fremont reached capacity (for S/X/3) ?

 

[RobStark]

That statement is largely correct but is too blanket. 8% of buyers will put planet and grandchildren first if the price is within or near budget. These are the same 8% who vote green. It’s a significant market segment which cannot be ignored.

It is this market segment which will ensure the Tesla Network is an instant success. They will wait 10 minutes in the rain to catch an electric ride even if there’s an ICE car option sitting in front of them. They will use the TN app exclusively from day one.

That statement is largely correct but is too blanket. Not every country has that large a green vote. Not every green buys a car. Many are extremely anti-car, even BEVs. They insist that everyone should live in compact towns and cities and use public transportation and or walk bicycle.

And we need at least 88% of vehicle buyers to transition the world to sustainable transportation. Even India, Africa and Latin America.

Not just the San Francisco-San Jose Bay area and Norway.

 

[EinSV]

Ok, then their forecast for Q3 and Q4 must be 100K each to make their 347K number for the year. At 7,000 / week, hasn’t Fremont reached capacity (for S/X/3) ?

I have not heard any indication recently that Tesla expects to produce more than 7K/week Model 3 at Fremont. They are not there yet but if they can get to 6700/week for 12 weeks plus 20K S/X per quarter that would get them over 100K/quarter for Q3/4 combined.

There is the possibility of some Model 3 production from Shanghai late in Q4 but I don't believe Jonas is counting on any production from Shanghai until 2020.

 

[sdtslafan]

I did not expect the price to shoot up $25 last week - bought back in at a higher price...

I’ve started to think about it

Is there any chance Elon’s crazy antics e.g. tweets, reversals, etc are a way to distract everyone while the Model 3 takes hold of the market - getting the critics to focus on him and letting the product shine...

I don’t know but

He’s not being crazy anymore

 

[wipster]

Putting a 200k limit doesn't do the opposite.

Every automaker gets 200k credits.

BTW Nobody wants the current system going forward. Most Republicans want to eliminate the credit while most Democrats want to expand the credit to $10k for X number of years. In the current ideological and partisan climate compromise is a dirty word on both sides of the aisle so we have gridlock.

But why tie a financial incentive to the amount of income tax you owe? I believe it would be far more effective, especially for the folks that don't owe or pay large amounts of income tax, to have it be a specific rebate amount. That would really help folks on retirement or that don't make huge amounts of money to afford BEV's, which would in turn help Tesla to accomplish it's mission.

 

[neroden]

Checked the “raven” inventory on ev-cpo, all of them are actually pre-raven, with 259 or 335 or 315 miles range, which is different than raven’s 285/370/345 range. You can follow the links and see it on Tesla site.
Guess ev-cpo somehow messed up their vin decoders. As they have been for a few cars for awhile.

I was filtering by suspension type. I probably ran across the short list of rare birds with the new suspension but without the new drivetrain. There probably aren't more than 50 of those in the world, they're oddballs.

tl;dl:
There are no raven inventory whatsoever, as always.

 

[RFernatt]

Build an EV they said. Tesla is doing it, how hard can it be they said...

Audi Recalls E-Tron SUV For Water Leakage That Could Result In Fire

 

[NicoV]

The existing Nikola Motor Company (Wikipedia entry) might object as being too similar...

They could call it ‘WayMoreTaxCredits’.

 

[Buckminster]

Build an EV they said. Tesla is doing it, how hard can it be they said...

Audi Recalls E-Tron SUV For Water Leakage That Could Result In Fire

e-tron charge port lights drawing Inspiration from KITT:

Why does e-tron cost twice that of the M3?

 

[AcesDealt]

Now you are outright trolling this forum: to long time readers of TMC it's readily apparent that while there's a natural bullish bias (well, duh), there's regular disagreement here about basically everything, including key Tesla features and businesses, except maybe that there's a commonly held conviction here on TMC that the basic TSLAQ premise that Tesla is valued $10 or lower is malicious nonsense - which shouldn't surprise anyone reading a Tesla investor forum, right?

Yes, there are periodic waves of bullish optimism on TMC, rather muted at these price levels though - but generally everything is being questioned.

Also note the quality of arguments you are offering on the other hand:

• innuendo you are not willing to back up,
• out of context quotes,
• bravado and personal attacks combined with a condescending tone.

It’s rather important to keep in mind that accuracy in prediction is the fundamental measure of intelligence. You are keen to provide explanations of events after they have happened. Most people are looking for comfort in their decisions and if they are long in Tesla you are a great masseuse of reality. For those of us that actually care about anticipating how things play out ahead of time you are pretty disposable. Sorry, just isn’t your thing. You would make a good educator though.

 

[AcesDealt]

My fundamental question is why Tesla doesn’t raise prices on sr about 2k$. Given the relative lack of profitability they are serving these cars up, a narrow increase like that which would result in fewer cars sold would still likely result in more profit overall.

It is clear they are going for volume. The question is whether it is logical.

 

[neroden]

My fundamental question is why Tesla doesn’t raise prices on sr about 2k$. Given the relative lack of profitability they are serving these cars up, a narrow increase like that which would result in fewer cars sold would still likely result in more profit overall.

It is clear they are going for volume. The question is whether it is logical.

If you knew anything about the car industry, you'd realize that volume is the only choice, financially. They still might raise prices as more people learn about the cars and demand expands further, to reduce backlogs.