Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[eisa01]

After looking at that data presentation of the Norway numbers, I am now going to guess that the exponential growth for EVs may go linear around 30% of market share (possibly a bit later, definitely not earlier). (That's EVs as a percentage of new cars sold.) We'll pass that around 2025, globally. In Norway the market share appears to increase by 10% per year after that. So we may not get to 90% EVs by 2030; it may take until 2031. ;-)

Growth in Norway is partly limited by model selection, that may not be the case in 2025 as more OEMs launch a broader range of models. Another issue is vehicle supply, in principle batteries, whic may be an issue also in 2025.

 

[Off Shore]

That map is a bit deceiving at least with Washington State. In 2014 a law was passed which outlawed direct sales but grandfathered in Tesla so there are a number of Tesla stores and service centers throughout Washington State, mainly on the west side.

I made that error as well. Note the blue Tesla logo which indicates exactly the law you mention.

 

[Zaxxon]

That map is a bit deceiving at least with Washington State. In 2014 a law was passed which outlawed direct sales but grandfathered in Tesla so there are a number of Tesla stores and service centers throughout Washington State, mainly on the west side.

It's also off for Colorado, where Tesla has a store limit. Both Tesla and Rivian are working on improving this here.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Tales from da Hood, Part 4
Scene: Downtown Toronto restaurant at lunch. A business associate of mine and I seated next to window.
Act 1: M3 drives past. I ask pointing "Hey, what do you think of that car?" He says, "That's a Tesla, cool car, that's all electric isn't it?". "Yes" I reply with a smile. <pause>
Act 2: "...So what kind of oil does it use?" he asks. My smile quickly replaced with jaw drop.

It is great that in places where Tesla is selling well, such as Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Tesla is recognized by more and more people. I now see one every two minutes when driving busy roads and there are several new owners within a kilometre of my house, However recognizing an EV (Tesla) and understanding an EV (Tesla) are two completely different things. Those here at TMC may take fore-granted what we we know as obvious, about all the benefits of EV over ICE and that Tesla is the Leader of EVs. My belief is that more than 95% of the general public has very little knowledge of what an Electric Vehicle actual means. Hybrids have only served to muddle the waters for many, and the media...well, we know they write to protect their ICE contributors. Once the general population is educated on EVs there is no going back to ICE. It is a eureka moment. It won't happen overnight. But is will happen and it is happening.

Cheers to the Longs

 

[jbcarioca]

But are all 400k Reservations delivered? Correct me but up to Q1 there were 218k Model 3 produced. And now there will 9k per quarter for reservations delivered.

Therefore I would guess that in total 250k reservations will be delivered...and the rest was probably canceled...

You maybe did not know that many Model 3 reservations made as far back as March 31, 2016 are for delivery in countries that were included for reservations but do not yet have Tesla sold. I reserved one for Brazil on April 1, 2016 just after Brazil reservations were opened.There are some number fo others that have delayed for some configuration choice issue or other reasons.

Admittedly there is no way for any of us to have any idea how many such reservations do exist. For that matter we actually cannot know Model Y, Roadster or Semi order/reservation numbers with any reliability. Several investors attempt to quantify these based on reported customer deposits. Any such efforts are not really worth much since the reported numbers aggregate every single customer deposit category. Thus some Roadsters have US$250,000 fully paid reservations, some are initial payments for CPO. The array is considerable. Nobody outside Tesla knows the composition.

 

[RobStark]

That map is a bit deceiving at least with Washington State. In 2014 a law was passed which outlawed direct sales but grandfathered in Tesla so there are a number of Tesla stores and service centers throughout Washington State, mainly on the west side.

Look at the legend

Washington has a blue Tesla Logo inside it meaning Tesla is exempted.

Utah has a blue Leaf. Meaning all zero emission manufactures are exempted.

 

[gene]

I’m at Santa Barbara Tesla helping with deliveries today. Greatest entertainment is the BMW dealer across the street without a single customer.

 

[MP3Mike]

Truck drivers are paid by mile and they want to stand around waiting as little as possible. Truck drivers are federally mandated to work at most 11 hours in a 24 hour time period, with at least 30 minute breaks every 8 hours - which is usually taken as 2x 15 minutes. Any restriction beyond that, be it trailer loading/unloading or recharging, reduces the income of the trucker.

Some truck drivers are paid a percentage of the load transportation cost, and in those cases they normally pay more of the expenses themselves than the drivers that elect to be paid by the mile.

 

[RobStark]

It's also off for Colorado, where Tesla has a store limit. Both Tesla and Rivian are working on improving this here.

Colorado had a 1 store limit for Tesla.

Tesla now has 3 stores in Colorado.

Denver,Littleton, and Lone Tree.

Stores not galleries.

Find Us | Tesla

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Thanks for pointing us to this blog. It’s long, but it’s an informative read, very well researched (although most of it is no secret to those who have been paying attention). Definitely worth spending some time on. And there’s a nice surprise at the end when he does some bearish and bullish value calculations for 2030. One of them is guaranteed to blow your mind.

Some pretty crazy modeling. I like the one where my Roth IRA is worth $40 million in 2030 if I don’t even add anything to my current TSLA holdings. That’s a lot tax free earnings.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I’m at Santa Barbara Tesla helping with deliveries today. Greatest entertainment is the BMW dealer across the street without a single customer.

How many per day would you say are being delivered.

 

[wipster]

Look at the legend

Washington has a blue Tesla Logo inside it meaning Tesla is exempted.

Utah has a blue Leaf. Meaning all zero emission manufactures are exempted.

Sorry Rob, missed it the first time... after all it is Saturday and I hadn't had my coffee yet.

While it's great that Tesla has the ability to sell and service without using dealerships, it is kind of strange though that Washington has not yet allowed others to follow that model given that Inslee is a huge advocate of fighting climate change. I would think that future BEV manufacturers may follow Tesla's model and I can't see Gov. Jay standing in their way.

 

[wipster]

Wouldn’t call them crazy good but, ladies and gents (and paid consultants) - we are up 4 weeks in a row.

High five next week??

Place your bets.

I say the SP will finish next week under $500...

 

[gene]

How many per day would you say are being delivered.

Rather not say in case Tesla prefers I don’t. But it’s good.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Rather not say in case Tesla prefers I don’t. But it’s good.

I wish I could be one of those who briefs new owners, since I think I could do a good job with my level of obsession.

However, there is not a single Tesla store in all of Greece. I've looked.

 

[MABMAB]

 

[LJS22]

I say the SP will finish next week under $500...

If the shorts concede defeat, Tesla delivers 120k cars, and they profit $1billion on Q2 I could see you being completely wrong

 

[HG Wells]

I’m at Santa Barbara Tesla helping with deliveries today. Greatest entertainment is the BMW dealer across the street without a single customer.

Are you sure ?
They normally lock a potential customer in a room until he signs the contract.

Might have been there a couple of days, you never know how long the customer will hold out.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

If the shorts concede defeat, Tesla delivers 120k cars, and they profit $1billion on Q2 I could see you being completely wrong

Won’t find out profit next week, so even in that case, he’s probably still right.

 

[wipster]

If the shorts concede defeat, Tesla delivers 120k cars, and they profit $1billion on Q2 I could see you being completely wrong

Well I hope I'm wrong!