Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Adam Jonas: concerns around sustainable demand

“Given the historically lumpy nature of Tesla’s intra-quarter deliveries, we would ask investors to prepare for a potential ‘air pocket’ in delivery data into 3Q. We acknowledge there is nothing tangibly negative from tonight’s release and the scope of the 2Q beat helps interrupt the negative stream of sentiment throughout much of the year. However, we expect concerns around sustainable demand, segment saturation, competitive launches and risks to the China story will continue to weigh on the stock in coming weeks.”

Translation: My mates and I will continue to spread out bullshit, but summer is here and we'll be in the Hamptons for a few weeks.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Amazing how Elon has replicated much of the Apple experience but at a price point 100 times greater

That's what I was thinking too. I think most people buy Apple hardware because they want Apple's software and ecosystem. Once you're in the ecosystem, it's hard to leave. And I agree that Wall St has no clue because this is unheard of in the automotive space.

 

[Sancho]

Although practically everyone on this board has known there was no demand problem, until this evening reasonable investors could disagree. They could say that strong Q3/Q4 numbers were based on pent up demand, and that as the credit reduced and the pent up demand was fulfilled, sales would plateau or fade.

No reasonable person can think that after this evening. 2019 is undeniably shaping up to be a stellar year, and that's before China kicks into high gear.

Shorts and Tesla detractors will continue to deny and spin, but for reasonable investors, this evening is a wake up call.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Lol let’s see over $300. Got me a lot of lottos for this week. Unbelievably cheap still at $240. Will buy the gap fill tomorrow

Same here. I bought em at 223, good price. But honestly, have no idea what it will do tomorrow. Think I"m just going to ride it out. Really good report vs 4th of July short mischief. Can we get to 260?

 

[S3XY]

Buyer : Hi, I'm thinking about an e-tron and a Tesla
E-tron dealer : E-tron is far better
Buyer : What can you tell me about your fart app? I hear Tesla's is really good.
E-tron dealer : Uh, we don't have a fart app
Buyer : I'm no longer interested in e-tron

E-tron dealer : But, but.... did you know that etron in French means turd? Is that close enough?

 

[Zaxxon]

And there's still room to improve since Tesla's goal is 7K/wk Model 3.

Clearly they've figured it out with their new pre-immediate delivery option. If I custom order an X today, the website tells me I'll get it in June.

Side note: it looks like they stealth-changed the headliner again. All X interiors show a dark headliner now. Cream had a light headliner as recently as last week.

 

[Maitri982]

Adam Jonas: concerns around sustainable demand

“We acknowledge there is nothing tangibly negative from tonight’s release....”

No F'in *sugar* dumbass...

 

[Chunky Jr.]

We acknowledge there is nothing tangibly negative from tonight’s release

"But don't worry, we'll make up something anyway"

 

[LJS22]

That's what I was thinking too. I think most people buy Apple hardware because they want Apple's software and ecosystem. And I agree that Wall St has no clue because this is unheard of in the automotive space. And once you're in the ecosystem, it's hard to leave.

Every time CNBC puts a tech analyst on in a Tesla segment they (CNBC) get put to shame because the tech guys have seen this play out before. They understand the juggernaut Tesla can become. Instead they bring on auto analyst who have no idea what’s going on because they’ve never seen a successful ev business and never dealt with software on cars.

 

[mrmage]

Great day of course, and congrats to all who got in before the news.

For those who didn't or couldn't, the shorts will probably push it back down for a second chance. It's been hovering around 220 for weeks, so hopefully that will build some support.

Will be interesting to see how well it holds up for the next week.

 

[UncaNed]

So, fair warning for people watching market action this week. We've had honest-to-goodness bear raids over July 4th week before. It's a preferred time for bear raids because the markets close at 1 PM on Wednesday and are closed all of Thursday. Lots of people take long holidays. This makes Wednesday and Friday low-volume days, prime targets for bear raids. Mon-Tue, today and tomorrow, might see a bear raid too, but it's more likely to be timed for Wed & Fri.

If you see a big bear raid this week, it'll probably stop (well, go back to the normal level of manipulation) next Monday when normal trading resumes. This is not the week to have margin loans.

I hate to intrude on everyone's euphoria, but now that we've had a nice little SP pump... might we reasonably expect Neroden's corresponding dump tomorrow or Friday?

 

[2virgule5]

Q2 5,641/wk
Q1 5,065/wk

...not counting Statutary Holidays. That's an 11.3% increase QoQ. And there's still room to improve since Tesla's goal is 7K/wk Model 3.

Bet this study increase does wonders for unit cost (labor, depreciation) and profitability.

Cheers!

For all we know they may still be short of battery cells, with production increase mostly tied to a higher mix of SR+. I guess we’ll have to wait for ER.

 

[dc_h]

Were you here? They intended to hit 10k with the originally ordered equipment. Period. They failed. I think I am recalling 2016 plans, however... They were backing off by mid 2017, it is true...

I hope this failure works out on August 2nd earnings release. I agree, Elon targeted 10,000 and has not hit the target. His automation plan failed. They have moved on and Shanghai is on track. Burned once, but remaining positive for Shanghai remaining close to on schedule. We will be 10,000 a week soon, not as soon as hoped when the model 3 orders flew in, it were getting there. Hopefully we’re talking about missing 20,000 a week in 2020. Looking back 7 years, I think we will see the greatest most successful string of failures in modern history.

 

[SVMike]

Clearly they've figured it out with their new pre-immediate delivery option. If I custom order an X today, the website tells me I'll get it in June.

Wow! An 11 month backlog already!

 

[Yuri_G]

First time a financial journalist has acknowledged that Tesla is trouncing the competition? And from Dana Hull, no less.

Tesla’s Model 3 sales are far outpacing rivals. General Motors Co. sold just 3,965 of its all-electric Chevrolet Bolt in the second quarter, while Volkswagen AG’s Audi delivered just 1,835 battery-powered E-Tron SUVs.

“Tesla has built a phenomenal brand,” said Michelle Krebs, an analyst at car-shopping researcher Autotrader. “When you think of electric vehicles, you think of Tesla. The competition isn’t really out there yet. There is a segment of the population that just wants to buy a Tesla because they like the brand and they won’t look at anything else.”

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[SPadival]

Elon this evening

S Padival on Twitter

 

[SVMike]

This is more or less correct... The paint shop and stamping, among other areas, were supposed to handle 10k/week. They did not.

Musk was absolutely certain of 10k/week by the end of 2018 from Fremont. Now Fremont needs to build new buildings to exceed 7k. This is not what was planned.

How many people remember that Henry Ford was certain that the Model T assembly line station #7 needed 2 buckets of bolts instead of 1 bucket?

 

[Boomer19]

To back up the manipulations today, the FUDsters pulled out the stops. The most creative effort was this steaming piece of sugar by Jim Chanos's Yale cohort Jeffrey Sonnenfeld appearing on CNBC saying that Elon Musk is a fraud and all this talk about deliveries is just a shell game to take your attention away the real problems. Let me quote:

Musk often points to new product ventures — such as autonomous taxis or submarines — to keep attention away from Tesla’s “demand saga, departure issues ” and “debt issues, ” said Sonnenfeld, a senior associate dean at the Yale School of Management.

Jeffrey, you probably don't read my daily chart posts, but on the odd chance you glance at this one let me explain something that a management school dean at Yale really should know. Robust deliveries annihilate the FUD about no demand. Robust deliveries are the steak, not the sizzle that disproves claims of no demand. Just who is playing the shell game here? It's not Elon. Departure issues? Gene Munster explained this one today when he basically said that Tesla is a high pressure company right now and you can expect lots of executive turnovers until the company has proven itself and financial security is assured. Debt issues? Compared to the rest of the auto industry, Tesla's debt is pretty tame, especially for a company that is currently doubling revenue year over year. By the way, Jeffrey, every time CNBC puts you on the air and doesn't mention that you are a close associate of short-seller Jim Chanos (and you don't mention the fact either), you are a party in a deception because viewers lack the context to judge your motives for saying what you do. Understand?

and btw, what in the hell business does the senior associate dean of yale school of management have going on tv every month or so to take pot shots at elon musk and tesla. bizarre to say the least,
(but when good ol jim has something on you, i guess you tuck your tail between you legs and do the dirty - pure speculation by me obv)

like, isn’t that a bit outside of his purview?why does everyone (like, does anyone at yale feel uncomfortable when he goes on tv and does this?) just perceive it to be routine for a man in that position to be lashing out on financial ‘news’ network at the most influential CEO in the world right now, and
against the 2nd hottest company to work for if you’re an engineer (to space x) and most popular among younger generation all over the globe?

that can’t be a good look, if you’re looking to attract the best and brightest, which surely a school like yale is

and don’t take it the wrong way, i haven nothing against yale, but that windbag needs to be deflated

 

[Singuy]

So, fair warning for people watching market action this week. We've had honest-to-goodness bear raids over July 4th week before. It's a preferred time for bear raids because the markets close at 1 PM on Wednesday and are closed all of Thursday. Lots of people take long holidays. This makes Wednesday and Friday low-volume days, prime targets for bear raids. Mon-Tue, today and tomorrow, might see a bear raid too, but it's more likely to be timed for Wed & Fri.

If you see a big bear raid this week, it'll probably stop (well, go back to the normal level of manipulation) next Monday when normal trading resumes. This is not the week to have margin loans.

So could the opposite happen? Mass exodus of shorts may want to cover over this report but have a hard time finding sellers to buy back the shares due to low volume.

 

[Thekiwi]

I've updated my model with the actual production & delivery numbers.

Bottom line in Q2 : 195M gaap loss, break-even on non-gaap, $1.4B positive operating cash flow.

That cash generation is going to make shorts cry.

Near-future quarterly financial projections