Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Best comedy show on TV! 10/10 would watch again

These guys would be saying the same thing if Tesla had somehow just reported 1.000.000 deliveries in a single quarter.

So, tune in again in 2025?

 

[Artful Dodger]

You are right, the comment section is almost 90 to 1 against these FUDsters.

Yeah, didn't see one comment supporting CNBC's team of FUDsters.

Spoiler: First 10 Comments on YouTube | You can't BUY this PR!

Joey Gee
Tesla: Hits record sales
CNBC: 'Someone was fired at Tesla, how will they cope??'

Andre D'Souza
TESLA is the most important company in the world today.

Tanner Guisness
Do the opposite of what these guys say and make money.

Michael Young
No rabbits, no hats. Tim you are such a FUDster. Consider yourself on the wrong side of history. Car sales are down in Q1 for EVERY company.

Andrew Wong
Keep on stuttering Tim, you're doing great!

wuhgees
That's right, eat it CNBC. Y'all been making stuff up for an entire quarter giving false analysis everyday. Eat it.

Lars-Christian Strahlberger
Is this a comedy show? Man my TSLA call options explode! Greetings from Germany

Darcy Kline
Who own's you, Comcast? Ford, Gm, and all the others don't want you talking positively about Tesla....Shhhhhh

Michael Young
Every competitor has concept vehicles or something coming out in 3-4 years. The competitors can't match a 2012 vehicle.

lankale2009
You spent 3 months driving the stock down. Literally.

 

[Singer3000]

I have heard/read that stocks can split when they get high in cost per share, and of course if they purchase their own stocks back than there would be less post split.

Is there something negative associated to that process I'm unaware of?

Tesla only just raised fresh capital, at a relatively low stock price and with expensive fees. So why only a year from now would they use precious cash to buy back shares at (hopefully) a much higher price? Far better to build another gigafactory, expand the leasing programme to backstop demand, cover Gf1 with solar panels or just sit on the cash as a safety buffer for the next recession.

A few hundred dollars doesn’t sound like a high enough price to warrant a stock split either. If you can’t afford a single share priced at $240 and want it priced below $100, then should you really be playing with single stocks? Not least because your transaction fees will be a high percentage of the purchase cost.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Q2 5,641/wk
Q1 5,065/wk

...not counting Statutary Holidays. That's an 11.3% increase QoQ. And there's still room to improve since Tesla's goal is 7K/wk Model 3.

Just to do the math for folks here, an 11.3% increase QoQ brings Model 3 production to 6,988/wk by the end of 2019Q4 (Imma call it 7K)

Yeah, there's a Plan. Jus' sayin'...

Cheers!

 

[SPadival]

Hey Wall St, time to keep your end of the bargain now (PS: I got back in a lot sooner than predicted below)

On this happy occasion, I am declaring an amnesty for all the Care Bears/concern trolls and unignoring them - please post to your heart’s content

Full disclosure and not-an-advice: Sold all of my $TSLA stock today as I expect the SP to get hammered after the ER. Bought $ARKK with the profits as Cathie seems far more nimble than I will ever be.

I will get back in soon as ~ Q2 is over.

IMHO, the only thing that will matter to the SP (I.e. something that Wall St cannot refute) until EOY (*) is cash balance and delivery #s... the rest is just noise to WS

(*) - EOY or when FSD is feature complete, whichever comes last

 

[CorneliusXX]

Something's happened with Dana. Her Twitter feed started retweeting positive Tesla owners and she has been writing more neutral and positive stories. It's refreshing.

The delivery report came out and saw its shadow. 6 more weeks of pump season.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Speaking of who has the lead in the race to autonomy, let's see if LIDAR can do this:
"Tesla Autopilot in a CRAZY storm"

 

[ev-enthusiast]

With currently so many sell ratings on TSLA expect some upgrades by analysts during the next days as meeting of this years guidance of production and as well deliveries seems perfectly doable.

Who will be first to uprade his model with the new numbers?

BTW, looking forward to S&P inclusion

 

[LN1_Casey]

Tesla only just raised fresh capital, at a relatively low stock price and with expensive fees. So why only a year from now would they use precious cash to buy back shares at (hopefully) a much higher price? Far better to build another gigafactory, expand the leasing programme to backstop demand, cover Gf1 with solar panels or just sit on the cash as a safety buffer for the next recession.

That makes sense. Although, I thought they had gotten a good deal with their fees?

A few hundred dollars doesn’t sound like a high enough price to warrant a stock split either. If you can’t afford a single share priced at $240 and want it priced below $100, then should you really be playing with single stocks? Not least because your transaction fees will be a high percentage of the purchase cost.

I was not trying to imply a split at $240, but possibly a $500+-$800+ split up to next July, after GF4 has been built and is churning out the China Model 3, the Semi was released (? 2020 sometime I believe?), and maybe a few model Y's from Fremont.

 

[Beltsbear]

euro NCAP crash test for the Model 3. Looks good but painful to watch. https%3A%2F%2Fyoutu.be%2FcMiZa3HgRVE&token=AQAAx3EcXZdBfneD425s5Wku6yt-5uW1GqFDEEkGw_qF2PcQyfAx

 

[Stars aligned]

So, fair warning for people watching market action this week. We've had honest-to-goodness bear raids over July 4th week before. It's a preferred time for bear raids because the markets close at 1 PM on Wednesday and are closed all of Thursday. Lots of people take long holidays. This makes Wednesday and Friday low-volume days, prime targets for bear raids. Mon-Tue, today and tomorrow, might see a bear raid too, but it's more likely to be timed for Wed & Fri.

If you see a big bear raid this week, it'll probably stop (well, go back to the normal level of manipulation) next Monday when normal trading resumes. This is not the week to have margin loans.

What about the opposite? History nods.

 

[SPadival]

There was an unintentionally hilarious moment in that CNBC segment. After Gene Munster had finished taking, one of the talking heads on the panel (Brian Kelly I think) attempted to bring up demand issue, but he literally stopped mid-sentence and said “I got nothing...someone else can take over”.

Will try and find clip

There is a reddit thread for that

~ $TSLA bear literally gives up on live television. : teslainvestorsclub

 

[T@oo]

euro NCAP crash test for the Model 3. Looks good but painful to watch. https%3A%2F%2Fyoutu.be%2FcMiZa3HgRVE&token=AQAAx3EcXZdBfneD425s5Wku6yt-5uW1GqFDEEkGw_qF2PcQyfAx

I find the pole impact quite impressive. Not much intrusion.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla Model 3 totally nails Euro NCAP crash tests

 

[Fact Checking]

Elon will have the biggest face palm if legacy manufactures throw in the towel due to battery constraints, poor drive train design, and inability to be profitable with EVs. The company was designed to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy...it'll be a sad day if Tesla ends up having to do this alone. They may just do another round of freebie giveaway. If Tesla continue to dominate, selling 10-20x more than their nearest competitors then eventually there's really no point pursuing. Jag/LR is in deep financial trouble right now with the iPace yielding absolutely nothing in ROI.

Nonsense:

• Did digital photography, which is bigger today than ever, require Kodak's survival?
• Did smartphones require Blackberry's and Nokia's cooperation and survival? They fought iOS and Android tooth and nail and lost.

It's immaterial whether a couple of old ICE companies with ~80% obsolete factories tied around their necks survive or not. Some might, the brands will probably survive too or will be bailed out as a matter of national pride, the rest is immaterial.

Capitalism is perfectly capable of replacing legacy gascar companies if they refuse to evolve. If they decide to stay stupid: good riddance.

So far not one legacy manufacture can sell enough of their EVs in a quarter than Tesla can sell in a week's time. Billions spent on engineering and tooling. Every main stream media and short seller helping their cause..and yet they have nothing to show for....

You misunderstand: just read the BMW R&D exec's recent comments: they could be flooding the market with EVs but don't, because "customers are not asking for BEVs".

Instead BMW is selling weirdmobiles like the i3, because they fear cannibalization of their cash cow gascar products: the 3-series, the 5-series and 7-series.

If Tesla has to do this "alone" they will: in Shanghai they are on track to build a brand new EV factory from swamp to volume output in about 12 months.

Nor will Tesla do this "alone" in reality: tens of millions of new owners will be helping.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Nonsense:

• Did digital photography, which is bigger today than ever, require Kodak's survival?
• Did smartphones require Blackberry's and Nokia's cooperation and survival? They fought iOS and Android tooth and nail and lost.

Well, it's not the same to

• produce
• move
• deliver
• service

phones or cameras at scale than cars... I mean, it should be at least 2 orders of magnitude more complicated and expensive. Climate change is approaching fast - probably faster than predicted - so if Tesla is the only one it would be for nothing. A major collapse of civilization is gonna happen in the next decades if we don't act asap.

 

[SPadival]

Some stats on German Model 3 orders

Matthias Schmidt on Twitter

• 
  Matthias Schmidt
  
  @auto_schmidt

German #Tesla #Model3 orders (government subsidies claimed) rose for 1st month since orders began. - Most popular model: Long-Range D-Motor AWD (49% June orders / 74% YTD) -Orders averaging just under 800 units p/m (similar to BMW i3) BAFA/schmidtmatthias.de




12:06 AM · Jul 3, 2019 · Twitter Web Client

 

[Fact Checking]

Well, it's not the same to

• produce
• move
• deliver
• service

phones or cameras at scale than cars... I mean, it should be at least 2 orders of magnitude more complicated and expensive.

While this is true, this is exactly the reason why 80%+ of their gascar factories are obsolete. It doesn't matter whether they "want to" convert them to EV factories, because they, with rare exceptions, cannot be converted due to the exceptional complexity you mention.

To add insult to injury, EVs have an entirely new set of complexities, of which gascar makers know very little. Ask pretty much anyone in the automotive industry and they'll tell you that software is their weak point. These are 100 years old corporate structures and corporate culture with a lot of inertia, which isn't going to change overnight.

While I think many will survive, in name at least, bankruptcy/reorganization and a reallocation of their factory space and workforce to pure EV manufacturing would probably accelerate the EV transition, rather significantly.

Big loss to GM, FCA and BMW shareholders - big win for the rest of civilization.

Climate change is approaching fast - probably faster than predicted - so if Tesla is the only one it would be for nothing. A major collapse of civilization is gonna happen in the next decades if we don't act asap.

Historically "creative destruction" accelerated industry transitions.

Or we can look at it another way:

• The executives at BMW, FCA and BMW are all in their 50s or older, and the great majority of them don't have a corporate or personal time horizon that goes beyond 5-10 years. If they have the choice to risk it all for uncertain payoffs that their CEO successors might reap in 10-20 years, or milk the existing stream of gascar profits for another 10-20 quarters, most of them will do the latter.
  
• another 10-20 years of BMW and GM spreading lies and confusion about EVs and pushing their advertising budget weight around to tone down global heating and EV transition coverage is NOT going to help the planet...

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

There was an unintentionally hilarious moment in that CNBC segment. After Gene Munster had finished taking, one of the talking heads on the panel (Brian Kelly I think) attempted to bring up demand issue, but he literally stopped mid-sentence and said “I got nothing...someone else can take over”.

Will try and find clip

Gee, that is really uncanny! So hilarious.
This guy clearly used up his dry sugar.

 

[Fact Checking]

First time a financial journalist has acknowledged that Tesla is trouncing the competition? And from Dana Hull, no less.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Something's happened with Dana. Her Twitter feed started retweeting positive Tesla owners and she has been writing more neutral and positive stories. It's refreshing.

I was hoping this would happen: Dana Hull is actually a competent journalist who used to cover Tesla fairly and largely positively many years ago. (I even saw a photo of her with Elon, from the early Tesla days - cannot find it anymore.)

Then something happened, and Dana Hull not only turned negative but embraced TSLAQ, and wrote scathing articles that balanced on the boundary of intentional falsehoods.

Now the pendulum might be swinging back, and I hope Tesla PR can use those cracks in the MSM TSLAQ bubble and start a proper public relations operation to counter the disinformation campaign?

Anyway, this is another piece to add to the mysterious puzzle of negative Tesla coverage @ZachShahan wrote about recently...