Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

Electrek; 50 minutes ago: Tesla supplier hints at massive increase in Model 3 production - Electrek

Are these parts also used in the Model Y?

 

[Skryll]

I was a reservation holder up until last month when I got my deposit back. There were many others still waiting for the $35K car.

They don't deliver the SR to New York?

 

[EVDRVN]

Green

I notice the price goes up when I tell Elon to get in shape I think we need more burrito and food avatars.

 

[Sudre]

And water / weather is not an issue? Plenty of land in california but needs so much watering from remote sources...

We have tons of flood water over here in Missouri. Maybe they can clean out a few of the oil/gas pipes and pump a little your way.

 

[KarenRei]

And water / weather is not an issue? Plenty of land in california but needs so much watering from remote sources...

The land isn't degraded due to climate; it's degraded due to sheep. Weather does make it hard for it to restore itself, however. We have plenty of water, but our winters are harsh (not due to cold, but length and severe winds), and our summers are cool. Requires species adapted to cool weather and very windy winters.

 

[Sparky4life]

T
The third one is that it's actually a myth that setting unrealistic deadlines makes things happen more quickly, because making a series of short-term decisions based on continuously looming and expired deadlines, often results in mistakes and rework. Rework is expensive time-wise, getting it right first time even when taking a little longer initially, is preferred. Jack Welch figured that out 30 years ago.

It's only unrealistic until you actually hit it. Then the team suddenly feels like they can accomplish anything. FUD may say that Elon never hits a deadline, but people who actually work for him know better.

 

[sparcs]

This isn't exactly a great way to manage people, and when you're designing autonomous systems and putting expensive things or people into space (as they will be), the "shortest path" shouldn't be a strategic objective. The best possible outcome should be.

Managing to unrealistic timelines is detrimental for three reasons. The obvious one is mismanagement of expectations and while Musk doesn't care about Wall St, he does care about his customers. A less obvious one is that it's demoralizing for teams to always feel like they're missing deadlines and thus under-performing, unless they're in on the joke. If they are, then the aggressive statements are worthless anyway.

The third one is that it's actually a myth that setting unrealistic deadlines makes things happen more quickly, because making a series of short-term decisions based on continuously looming and expired deadlines, often results in mistakes and rework. Rework is expensive time-wise, getting it right first time even when taking a little longer initially, is preferred. Jack Welch figured that out 30 years ago.

Just to add to the demoralizing aspect for employees. Missed timelines/guidance can also affect the share price. Tesla's employee compensation includes shares in the company. It's a lot of added distraction if employees are having to look at the share price versus focusing on their work. At some point, won't employees start questioning whether they have stable employment?

 

[ZeApelido]

Great now Elon is getting into it with Pablo Escobar's family over a flamethrower.

Next thing you know we find out he took Cambodian artwork from Pol Pot.

[Only one of these is made up]

 

[Wooloomooloo]

It's only unrealistic until you actually hit it.

Sorry but that's just a nonsensical sentence - if you hit it, it was realistic. A target within a timeline is either objectively realistic or not. A given assertion of whether it's realistic or unrealistic is either true or false, where the outcome validates the assertion. Being right or wrong about that isn't what I meant in my comment you disagreed with; anyone can be wrong.

I am talking about the situation where the assertion is knowingly false, or has been so poorly considered it's highly likely to be false, because it's not grounded in any reality - i.e., it was a finger in the air.

I've given plenty of those kinds of estimates, but I usually caveat the crap out of it.

OT: Your name is the same as my car: Sparky.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

The funny thing is that Elon's production estimates have steadily become more realistic. Fremont Model 3 production at 7k a week by the end of 2019 or Model Y production for Late 2020. Yet his FSD estimates are still wildly optimistic.

I would say this is progress at least since he loses way more credibility if he can't deliver on production/delivery guidance. That's largely the basis for the current share price.

They're only overly optimistic if they don't come true.

Dan

 

[ZeApelido]

BTW, I totally nailed this 1/2 a year ago

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[EVNow]

Very fair, yes. Of course targets can be missed even if they were realistic, and of course occasionally moon-shot efforts do work. But often when you push for a 3 month delivery when you know it should take 6 months, it ends up taking 9 months. I've seen that time and again in different organizations.

My experience is - if the team comes with 6 months and you tell them find a way to make it happen in 3 months it takes 4 or 5 months. If you say ok, it takes 7 or 8 months. Next time the team comes with 8 months.

This is how Microsoft ended up with 5 year release cycles

 

[ZeApelido]

This is happening next!

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[NakedLong]

Major Tesla (TSLA) investor urges Elon Musk to temper overly-optimistic targets

[Musk] would be better off modifying his approach. “One should, on the whole, try not to give too many targets that may not be attainable, with specific dates at establishment. And I don’t think one wants sudden reversals of policy. I hope that’s not too much for a major shareholder to ask,”

I would agree with this. Under promise and over deliver. Surprise on the upside instead of disappointing by missing overly optimistic goals. If he guided 90% of what he thinks, then he would significantly beat expectations with 95%, rather than disappoint if he only got 99%.

Personally, I get annoyed when people criticise Elon for sharing his timelines for several reasons:

1) The guy is changing the world more than anyone else, and working his arse off to do it. Cut him some slack. It's not like all the people criticising him would be able to do what he is doing.

2) Elon has a right to express his ideas/timelines, and in fact he is enthusiastic and excited about the future so for him it is something fun to talk about. Just because he is a CEO does not mean he has to start acting all corporate and guarded. Let the guy be an individual with his own voice.

3) They are predictions not facts. Everyone has predictions about the future. People should understand this and not see them as facts, and then get upset when they are off by a bit. Even if he is wrong, humans are wrong all the time, including all those wanting to silence him.

4) Having a window into Elon's mind is interesting for investors and just people who like to follow progress. Stop trying to muzzle him. The information is useful to me and others, not to mention entertaining.

5) He is in a better position than analysts, or armchair investors like us to predict what Tesla will do. I am always amazed at how outsiders to Tesla think they can predict what Tesla will do in stark contradiction to what Elon is saying.. hello Adam Jones.

/rant

EDIT: Actually one more...

6) There is a skew towards focusing on his wrong or late predictions and not on his many accurate and on time predictions.

 

[capster]

If you know where I can get 2-year-old seedlings for $0,35/tree in Iceland, by all means, please let me know (we have VAT and more expensive labour) I might be able to do cheaper than $2/tree from some of the Hveragerði supppliers, or in greater bulk. But buying ~300 a time in Reykjavík costs nearly $2 per tree for conifers. Also, the rate at which one can plant trees varies greatly on the tree size and ground type. In the degraded grassland when planting small seedling trees I have to clear grass around them so that they get sufficient light, which is time consuming. In some areas the soil is easy to work, while in others rocks make more work out of it. And in boggy areas when planting e.g. tamarack, or on steep slopes, getting around can be more difficult.

But I agree, you need to plant trees at scale to make a difference. I was just pointing out that funding reforestation does legitimately sequester carbon at scale. Carbon remains trapped in forests so long as they remain intact as forests.

Maybe there is funding from carbon offsets or other (government or NGO) sources available for your reforestation project, e.g. Forestry - Carbonfund.org ?

 

[EVDRVN]

The land isn't degraded due to climate; it's degraded due to sheep. Weather does make it hard for it to restore itself, however. We have plenty of water, but our winters are harsh (not due to cold, but length and severe winds), and our summers are cool. Requires species adapted to cool weather and very windy winters.

Sounds like San Francisco

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Aaaaand down goes the market, taking TSLA with it.

 

[capster]

Another reason why jpmorgan downgrades Tesla, shipping cocaine is more profitable:
Cargo ship owned by JPMorgan Chase seized by US with 20 tons of cocaine - CNN

Egad! Shades of John DeLorean.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

My experience is - if the team comes with 6 months and you tell them find a way to make it happen in 3 months it takes 4 or 5 months. If you say ok, it takes 7 or 8 months. Next time the team comes with 8 months.

This is how Microsoft ended up with 5 year release cycles

Sure, that's not untypical. Unpacking the assumptions and variables the team considered in the initial estimate and keeping scope or roadblocks under control is all part of that - at least I try to do that. If it was as simple demanding the estimate be halved every time, everyone would do it and it would always work.

Also it becomes a game because developers simply estimate 50% more time than they need knowing you'll cut it in half and they will meet you half way.

 

[KarenRei]

Sounds like San Francisco

If San Francisco gets blizzards with hurricane-force winds every winter (a couple years ago we had Cat. 5 gusts) and has an average July high of 14C / 57F, then yes

BTW, to anyone interested in seeing how climate change is going to affect where they live by 2050 if 2°C average temperature change gets locked in: go <a href="Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues">here</a>, scroll down to "Supporting information", right to database S2, then click download. You can see what cities your climate will become comparable to, and how precipitation and temperatures will change (mean, january, july).