Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[PeterJA]

Why most people lose money at casinos, and in the stock market:
How Ford Will Eat Tesla's Lunch in the Next Two Years
Robin

Sometimes I think Anton is trolling. His claims are so hilarious that he can't possibly believe them, can he?

His latest Tesla-killer (I think #203) is "a car that simply looks better than what TSLA offers." Yes, Ford has not actually revealed these breathtaking looks yet, but Model Y is surely doomed by... dear God... "a Mustang-inspired crossover vehicle."

Mustang is a 2- or 4-seat, 2-door coupe. What part of it will inspire a crossover? The taillights? The grille? (which in the latest version looks like Ford forgot a panel)

Maybe the racing stripe. Dammit Tesla, why didn't you think of that?

So Anton is either the stupidest auto analyst on Earth, or the most brilliant satirist writing today, who gets paid for humor that his employers take seriously while he secretly laughs at them. I just can't decide which.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Look at these Job Titles posted on Telsa's Jobs Search page since Jan 22, 2019:

'If I were an outside investor, I would really focus on two things: battery cells, and full self driving.' -- Elon Musk, June 2019 AGM​

So let's not lose focus on these two new manufacturing job postings for Gigafactory in Sparks, NV which were posted on July 12, 2019:

Jus' sayin'...

Cheers!

 

[KSilver2000]

Why in the world are we comparing a 2-seater sports car (which isn't even made yet) to a mass-produced EV, simply because of...PRICE? Just a futile exercise, IMO. As someone also said, 0-60 times aren't everything. Tesla has said that the Model S will always have the best performance, so if anything you should be comparing the new Vette, with the yet-to-be-priced track package, to it. But even that is ridiculous, as you can't load the family in that Vette, put it in Autopilot, and cruise quietly, and inexpensively, down the highway to Disney with all your luggage. You can't fuel the Vette at home. God help you if you try to drive it in the snow. Premium fuel in my area is 60 cents higher than regular, so just open your wallet and bend over. Cars like the new Vette, the Dodge Demon, Hellcat, Camaro ZR1, etc are all dinosaurs, but people just aren't realizing it yet, IMO. Maybe Iran needs to seize a few more ships to help it sink in. /rant

You’re responding to the wrong person, bud.

This is the kind of butt annoying responses on the internet these days. Doesn’t matter which side of the aisle. Trying to put in their 2 cents without bothering to understand the conversation for even a second. There’s plenty of these people on this board as well, unfortunately.

I was responding to someone who originally made the comparison remark with the 3. I was just saying 0-60 is not the only performance measure of a car’s speed. Just like you wrote, which I agree with, “As someone also said, 0-60 times aren't everything.”

Besides that point, why can’t two cars within the same price range be compared? Is there some law in your universe that says that is a no-no? Good freaking golly. I’ll make sure people confirm with you before anyone compares cars to make sure a properly qualified, apples to apples comparison is made.

But going with what you say, why do you get to compare the S and Vette when one is not a mass produced EV? Goes against what you say. I guess we’re not allowed to compare the Tesla to anything. Not even the e-tron or I-pace since they’re not produced at the same volumes yet first of all. But, we shouldn’t also be comparing the X and the e-tron, I-pace or EQC because the latter two don’t have options for 7 seats, just as how you say the Vette doesn’t have 2 extra seats.

SMH.

 

[neroden]

Does any model year of Tesla have colors so close together that a service center cannot differentiate them?

Well, they've literally asked me which white my car was. 2012-2013 had both Pearl White and plain White.

 

[KSilver2000]

A nail took out one of the Model S’s tires this week. I was at discount tire picking up the replacement in the Model 3 when I happened to see a black P3D leaving one of the bays. As I was watching the 3 drive away I hear one of the workers one the phone saying “a Tesla? Yes we stock tires for your car” Teslas are taking over Phoenix. Bullish AF.

Wow, then the Audi e-tron must be the real deal because the tire sizes used on that EV are in stock at my local America’s Tire before the car is even sold! Tire shops are already preparing in advance! Double bullish!!

/s

*It is true though about the sizing, I just checked. The sizes that will be used are available locally.

 

[neroden]

Also, the introduction of a new type of paint adds significant downstream service and recall risk. Paint quality is actually one of the most uncertain areas of automotive materials science and even the largest OEMs have been burned by major paint quality problems a number of times. (!) Having to re-paint all panels on thousands or even tens of thousands of units under warranty is a significant expense, risk and overhead that would interfere with regular service work.

The combination of hard radiation from space (UV photons) and the many chemical, temperature and physical abrasion environments that cars are exposed to globally is non-trivial and not an exact science even today, but a largely experimental field where 'proven track record of paint' counts for a lot.

A new 'simple white' would not just reduce the value of white Teslas a bit, but it would undeniably be a new color that Tesla has to develop.

The extra cost of one more layer of paint (IIRC 4 layers and passes in the paint shop instead of the regular 3 layers) with Pearl White is a known expense and a known risk on the other hand.

I don't expect Tesla to add new colors for at least a year - at best they'll reintroduce an old one.

Just one thing: Plain white *is* an old color. My 2013 Model S has it.

 

[wipster]

How Ford Will Eat Tesla's Lunch in the Next Two Years...

Hahahahahahahhahahahaha!!!!!

 

[Artful Dodger]

So let's not lose focus on these two new manufacturing job postings for Gigafactory in Sparks, NV which were posted on July 12, 2019

Let's begin with the 1st GF1 job from July 12
Associate Cell Quality Engineer, Gigafactory

Job Title: Cell Quality Engineer
Location: Gigafactory 1

Team

The Cell Quality team is part of Cell Manufacturing team within the R&D organization. The group supports the development of new mass production cell candidates by guiding design decisions, contributing to cell supplier specification requirements, and collaborating on cell material and process development projects. Cell Quality leads mass production cell projects that impact incoming cell quality, Tesla manufacturability, and field reliability.

Role

The Gigafactory Cell Quality team is seeking an entry-level engineer to lead and support incoming quality inspection, root cause analysis, critical Li-ion cell component analysis, and data analysis in both manufacturing and lab environments. The majority of projects will be multidisciplinary and focused on field reliability and safety, production throughput, and cost savings of Li-ion cells.

The candidate must demonstrate the ability to effectively interface with employees throughout the company ranging from production associates to executives within Tesla and with suppliers.

Strong organizational, time management and interpersonal skills are necessary to excel in this role. The person for this position must exhibit the knowledge, leadership, and drive needed to not only challenge the status quo, but also define and execute the optimal path forward.

Responsibilities

• Lead regular Model 3 and Tesla Energy cell quality operations at Gigafactory 1, including:
  • Complete incoming quality control tasks to ensure manufacturing capability and product reliability
  • Manage non-conforming cell process flows and evaluates suspect materials while working closely with internal and external teams to quickly identify and resolve any cell-related issues
  • Lead the identification, root cause analysis, and resolution of cell related manufacturing quality issues
  • Contain and sort products as needed based on quality requirements
  • Participate in audits of Tesla and supplier manufacturing lines to ensure all processes follow the plan of record
• Drive cross-functional projects with manufacturing, supply chain, production quality, and research teams to test existing and determine new product specifications and tolerances
• Collaborate with suppliers to initiate and implement Process Change Requests (PCRs) to improve manufacturability and field performance
• Seek out and initiate continuous improvement projects within Tesla manufacturing and at suppliers
• Lead FMEA activities to ensure design and manufacturing issues are identified and risks mitigated
• Provide Design for Manufacturability (DFM) feedback to engineering as well as participate in DFM reviews
• Produce cogent and intelligible data visualizations
• Author presentations and summarize high-impact technical findings
• Develop custom test methods to solve critical cell engineering issues
• Anticipate potential problems and take preventative action

Requirements

• B.S. Engineering or Material Science with a focus in battery engineering and/or renewable energy preferred
• Demonstrated competence to organize large projects across various disciplines.
• Excellent verbal and written communication skills; ability to communicate with technical and non-technical team members is essential
• Strong desire to learn and use advanced characterization and analysis techniques in Li-ion cell and battery pack manufacturing processes
• Hands-on experience inspecting and disassembling small components
• Detail-oriented with exceptional documentation, organization, and interpersonal skills
• Ability to use technological tools and business system applications to manage, synthesize and interpret data
• Familiarity with quality systems manufacturing environment
• Proficiency in Microsoft Office Suite
• Experience working in a dynamic and fast-paced environment
• Willing to work long hours and weekends on short notice
• Ability to lift and sort parts up to 25 pounds as required
• Exhibit a strong passion for sustainable energy

Desirable Experience

• Programming (SQL, Python, MATLAB, R, etc.)
• Familiarity with lab material characterization techniques
• Data analysis and visualization software (Tableau, JMP, Minitab, etc.)
• Design software (Adobe Creative Suite, CATIA. SOLIDWORKS)
• Photography using a DSLR

 

[M3Rider]

In what city traffic are you getting up to 60mph?

And what track do you race on? Many tracks have stretches longer than 1/4 mile.

My commute on local rd/hwy includes zones for 40mph, 45mph, and 55mph all on a single straight road with a lot of traffic lights. I do not race on it, but like to advertise 3's acceleration if I'm first at the stop light.
I do not go to tracks since my car is not P as I already said.

Cars like the new Vette, the Dodge Demon, Hellcat, Camaro ZR1, etc are all dinosaurs, but people just aren't realizing it yet, IMO. Maybe Iran needs to seize a few more ships to help it sink in. /rant

Exactly, but the easiest way to show this would be to point out that all these "newest achievements" simply lose to a similarly priced Tesla EV.

Unfortunately, Roadster 2 that could be a few years away might not be a clear evidence to someone, who's never going to have the money to buy cars in that price range. To me, AP, home charging, OTA etc. advantages are not questionable, but you have to realize that for 98% of people on the road these things do not make sense or represent advantage; they may only understand 0-60, so this needs to be a clear beat visible on the surface without any digging.

Again, Tesla may not be able to scale any faster than the rate at which they get orders, so this may not matter at all. Just something that ticks me off, wishing that it was better before the financial side of the story (batteries getting cheaper) kills off the remaining dinosaurs.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's the 2nd GF1 job posting from July 12, 2019

Cell Quality Technician, Gigafactory

Job Title: Cell Quality Technician
Job Category: Research and Development
Location: Gigafactory 1

Team

The Cell Quality team is a subset of the Cell Manufacturing team within the R&D organization. The group supports development of new mass production cell candidates by guiding design decisions, contributing to cell supplier specification requirements, and collaborating on cell material and process development projects. Cell Quality leads mass production cell projects that impact incoming cell quality, Tesla manufacturability, and field reliability.

Role

The Cell Quality Team is seeking a technician to support incoming quality inspection, root cause analysis, critical Li-ion cell component analysis, and data collection in both manufacturing and lab environments.

This technician is expected to both support and lead projects focused on field reliability and safety, production throughput, and cost savings. The person for this role must exhibit the knowledge, leadership, and drive needed to not only challenge the status quo, but also define and execute the optimal path forward.

Responsibilities

• Support regular Cell Quality activities in Gigafactory 1, including:
  • Support incoming quality control tasks to ensure manufacturing capability and product reliability
  • Manage non-conforming cell material flow and material disposition while working closely with internal and external teams to quickly identify and resolve any cell-related issues
  • Assist in the identification, root cause analysis, and resolution of manufacturing quality issues
  • Contain and sort products as needed for quality requirements
  • Participate in audits of Tesla and supplier manufacturing lines to ensure all processes follow the plan of record
• Work cross-functionally with manufacturing, supply chain, quality, and research teams to determine product specifications and tolerances
• Process and implement Engineering Change Orders (ECO’s) as required
• Participate in continuous improvement activities with manufacturing and suppliers
• Support FMEA activities to ensure design and manufacturing issues are identified and risks mitigated
• Provide Design for Manufacturability feedback to engineering as well as participate in DFM reviews
• Collect, analyze, and interpret data independently
• Anticipate potential problems and take preventative action

Requirements

• Strong desire to learn and use advanced characterization and analysis techniques in Li-ion cell and battery pack manufacturing processes
• Hands on experience inspecting and disassembling small components
• Detail-oriented with exceptional documentation, organization, and communication skills
• Ability to use technological tools and business system applications to manage, synthesize and interpret data
• Familiarity within quality systems in a high volume manufacturing environment
• Proficiency in Microsoft Office Suite
• Ability to lift and sort parts of up to 25 pounds as required
• Experience working in a dynamic and fast-paced environment
• Willing to work long hours and weekends on short notice

 

[Buckminster]

OT

That's why I looked at driverless trains for historic precedent. They literally have "train captains" who do nothing but "be responsible" and reassure people on Docklands Light Rail.

The train captains are on only ~30% of services - probably less. DLR is slow but pretty cool because you can see directly ahead.
Worth taking to Greenwich if anyone is visiting London for more than a couple of days.

 

[schonelucht]

Tesla drops the request for the restraining order against Hothi because it does not want to provide video evidence as it was instructed to do. Not a good look for the strength of their original case.

Tesla drops request for restraining order against allegedly dangerous short seller – TechCrunch

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla drops the request for the restraining order against Hothi because it does not want to provide video evidence as it was instructed to do. Not a good look for the strength of their original case.

Tesla drops request for restraining order against allegedly dangerous short seller – TechCrunch

I can think of two reasons why Tesla wouldn’t want to release the video:

1 Perhaps they don’t want to draw negative headlines during a time when things are going well.

2 Putting videos of this manner to the public may encourage more copycats. This has been a focal point of why the media has been criticized for over exposing the face of killers who participate in “public mass shootings”, which has in effect planted ideas in the head of copycats and allow them to research their next target.

 

[schonelucht]

The

Tesla drops the request for the restraining order against Hothi because it does not want to provide video evidence as it was instructed to do. Not a good look for the strength of their original case.

Tesla drops request for restraining order against allegedly dangerous short seller – TechCrunch

And according to TSLAQ (who are funding Hothi and therefore very well informed) he will now counter sue Tesla for malicious prosecution.

 

[PhaseWhite]

I can think of two reasons why Tesla wouldn’t want to release the video:

1 Perhaps they don’t want to draw negative headlines during a time when things are going well.

2 Putting videos of this manner to the public may encourage more copycats. This has been a focal point of why the media has been criticized for over exposing the face of killers who participate in “public mass shootings”, which has in effect planted ideas in the head of copycats and allow them to research their next target.

Unfortunately due to their past actions I find it hard to trust Tesla security’s credibility. In Sparks NV didn’t they falsely claim that the battery “whistle blower” had threatened work place violence?

I don’t condone these opponents actions but The way Tesla has handled them has damaged their credibility.

 

[PhaseWhite]

The


And according to TSLAQ (who are funding Hothi and therefore very well informed) he will now counter sue Tesla for malicious prosecution.

This will be interesting...

 

[schonelucht]

This will be interesting...

Don’t think so. Anything interesting would be the footage from the cameras. Tesla will settle quickly and quietly if there is any real possibility of that coming out. The issue is that the footage will reveal exactly how doctored the promotional material for the autonomy day was. (Not making friends on this board today, lol). Luckily Hothi is cleary a hired gun himself so money will easily motivate him to accept Tesla’s terms.

Unrelated : There is healthy stream of Dutch follow on orders for the Model 3 now that they are in steady state deliveries and with the new cabinet plans, Q4 will be a blowout for sure.

 

[kengchang]

Don’t think so. Anything interesting would be the footage from the cameras. Tesla will settle quickly and quietly if there is any real possibility of that coming out. The issue is that the footage will reveal exactly how doctored the promotional material for the autonomy day was. (Not making friends on this board today, lol). Luckily Hothi is cleary a hired gun himself so money will easily motivate him to accept Tesla’s terms.

Er what? The promo video for autonomy day was filmed in Palo Altos near the Tesla HQ. The incident took place was near the factory. Location is not even close.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Millennial TSLA and Tesla owner here. Can confirm all of the above for the single data point that is me.

Remember that Millennials can be as old as.... 37. Anyone <21 is a different Generation.

Depending on your choice of date ranges, even older. By some standards I would be considered a Millennial and I was born in '81.

But really...

The various 'generation' labels are just invented by people who want to get rich writing about them. Whoever picks the name that sticks strikes it rich. They're typically meaningless (in terms of usefulness) and condescending abstractions.

 

[schonelucht]

Er what? The promo video for autonomy day was filmed in Palo Altos near the Tesla HQ. The incident took place was near the factory. Location is not even close.

In the sense that it will show what the true state of functionality was at that time.